2023-24 Roster Thread #9: Spring time is upon us

[blackjackmulligan]

Yeah, Morin's career demise is obvious. To me, Hagg is the biggest case study in reflecting on development. He had quite the good resume come draft time and I recall many were pleased here to get him in the second round. Then, square peg meet physical defensive specialist hole.

You may well be right about Myers but I am perplexed how his game seemed to unravel in such a short time. For a brief period, he flashed the potential for a top-pairing offensively gifted player, a unicorn, and then practically forgot how to tie his skates.

Both Hagg and Myers out of the league to boot.

 

[Curufinwe]

The league had 16 players with 90+ points. TK isnt in that group no matter what team you put him on.

Did you think Sam Reinhart was an elite, 90 point player when he was in Buffalo?

 

[Random Forest]

Dallas being successful may be one of the worst things to happen for us.

"Hey, look, you can get a star level player with every late 1st and mid 2nd pick, too!

Maybe, but in reality, every successful team is built by finding (and, usually, lucking into) top talent for cheap that was otherwise overlooked.

Kucherov, Point, D. Toews, Forsling, Verhaeghe, Hintz, Stankoven, etc etc.

Whether you nuke the team or not, you still need that to happen. Having players like Barkey or Brink turn into core contributors is a precondition to sustained success almost as much as finding your MacKinnons and Makars. The point isn’t to say “hey just copy Dallas!”, it’s moreso to illustrate what needs to happen for the Flyers to ever emerge into a contender.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Did you think Sam Reinhart was an elite, 90 point player when he was in Buffalo?

That doesn't change anything I said.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Maybe, but in reality, every successful team is built by finding (and, usually, lucking into) top talent for cheap that was otherwise overlooked.

Kucherov, Point, D. Toews, Forsling, Verhaeghe, Hintz, Stankoven, etc etc.

Whether you nuke the team or not, you still need that to happen. Having players like Barkey or Brink turn into core contributors is a precondition to sustained success almost as much as finding your MacKinnons and Makars. The point isn’t to say “hey just copy Dallas!”, it’s moreso to illustrate what needs to happen for the Flyers to ever emerge into a contender.

The optimism is missed, in the sense that I wished I had some.

What about their draft history, when Claude Giroux was a long time ago in 2008 - gives you hope that largely the same scouting group, and country club advisor/management team finds that higher quality player outside of say the top 7 picks.

Tortorella who has an iron grip on this thing has done very well with TK, and York. Frost, and Farabee seem to be on limited time.

 

[renberg]

at their core the Flyers are desp. to prove you can win like you did in the 70's..

grinder face puncher hockey is the way..

everything else is not honest hockey ..

Torts and the old bois club are a match made in heaven.. imagine the circle jerks behind closed doors...talk about a closed feedback loop..

Not to overly support Torts but this roster has the terrible flaws that are almost impossible to hide. They're devoid of talent up the middle. Since he detests Frost, if Coots can't compete at his previous levels, the Flyers are cooked. How can a hockey club do much when they have no reliable positive play at center ice? Torts has to go with try hard hockey which is about all that he has in his tool chest.
Unfortunately Torts is such an ass that his personality makes him difficult to play for and negates anything else that he brings as a coach. Perhaps the only worthwhile thing that he did all last season was to admit that he overplayed Ersson and came to his defense at the end of the season.

 

[Curufinwe]

That doesn't change anything I said.

Answer the question, pal.

 

[Random Forest]

The optimism is missed, in the sense that I wished I had some.

What about their draft history, when Claude Giroux was a long time ago in 2008 - gives you hope that largely the same scouting group, and country club advisor/management team finds that higher quality player outside of say the top 7 picks.

Tortorella who has an iron grip on this thing has done very well with TK, and York. Frost, and Farabee seem to be on limited time.

I’m not intending to communicate optimism. I’m not really optimistic or pessimistic, tbh. I’m really just trying to express that it’s almost moot whether they nuke the team or not. To ever be successful, under either strategy, they will need to find (or create) hidden talent, like Dallas, Colorado, and Tampa did.

Dallas was successful, but it’s not even like this was their explicit plan. They obviously did not know what they were getting with Hintz or even Robertson when they drafted them.

You need to not be stupid and throw away draft picks for nothing — unclear yet whether the Flyers meet that bar — but aside from that, the pieces that turn a team from “collection of lottery picks” into “contender” requires a good chunk of luck and chance too. Plenty of dumbass managers have been bailed out because they randomly hit on a 3rd rounder who turned into a PPG player.

 

[trostol]

That's ultimately the core of the issue..we have piss poor scouting which doesn't really allow us to find hidden gems

 

[Random Forest]

That’s where I think there’s so much more luck involved. TBH, I think scouting is mostly fake BS. The very top players distinguish themselves by their play and production to the point where you don’t need a scout to tell you. The rest of the field is largely a crap shoot. Amateur “scouting” should be a hobby, not a job.

The only arbitrage plays at the draft are selecting the obviously skilled players who fall because they’re small (Stankoven, Point, Gaudreau, etc etc) and NOT selecting the obviously untalented players because they’re big and “high floor”. Other than that, I’m not convinced a well designed formula wouldn’t be as good or better than a full scouting department over a long enough sample.

With that, IMO, the draft strategy should be 1) to accumulate cheap draft picks (lottery tickets) and play as much as you can, and 2) don’t do dumb dinosaur shit.

 

[Beef Invictus]

That’s where I think there’s so much more luck involved. TBH, I think scouting is mostly fake BS. The very top players distinguish themselves by their play and production to the point where you don’t need a scout to tell you. The rest of the field is largely a crap shoot. Amateur “scouting” should be a hobby, not a job.

The only arbitrage plays at the draft are selecting the obviously skilled players who fall because they’re small (Stankoven, Point, Gaudreau, etc etc) and NOT selecting the obviously untalented players because they’re big and “high floor”. Other than that, I’m not convinced a well designed formula wouldn’t be as good or better than a full scouting department over a long enough sample.

With that, IMO, the draft strategy should be 1) to accumulate cheap draft picks (lottery tickets) and play as much as you can, and 2) don’t do dumb dinosaur shit.

Of course, this does serve as an argument in favor of trading TK for picks to maximize your chances at being lucky. I am glad it isn't my responsibility to decide.

 

[FlyerNutter]

That's ultimately the core of the issue..we have piss poor scouting which doesn't really allow us to find hidden gems

I’ve gone back, and forth on this. Whether it’s scouting, or development. Or both.

I can’t put everything on just the scouts because at some point you would find something. With Hakstol, Vigneualt, and Torts…

Just a disappointing decade+

 

[renberg]

I’ve gone back, and forth on this. Whether it’s scouting, or development. Or both.

I can’t put everything on just the scouts because at some point you would find something. With Hakstol, Vigneualt, and Torts…

Just a disappointing decade+

You can’t make chicken salad out of chicken ****. However you can only make chicken **** out of chicken ****.

 

[Magua]

The Flyers haven’t picked in volume. They haven’t targeted (mostly) the right types, pre and post draft. They’re abysmal at developing. They refuse to acquire high picks (and jettisoned their highest value one after 1 year). Saying they just need to aggressively be good at the things they aren’t good at is like saying a pigeon could sing opera if only it knew Italian. They’re not even average at any of those things!

 

[volnoir]

I think people put too much weight on player development from an organizational standpoint. Most player development happens individually by the player. The biggest thing an org can do for a player is put them in the right opportunity to thrive and utilize their skills optimally.

 

[Magua]

The biggest thing an org can do for a player is put them in the right opportunity to thrive and utilize their skills optimally.

Could not possibly agree more. But boy, do I have news for you!

 

[Beef Invictus]

The Flyers haven’t picked in volume. They haven’t targeted (mostly) the right types, pre and post draft. They’re abysmal at developing. They refuse to acquire high picks (and jettisoned their highest value one after 1 year). Saying they just need to aggressively be good at the things they aren’t good at is like saying a pigeon could sing opera if only it knew Italian. They’re not even average at any of those things!

This is why they merely have to fire every single person currently employed and change everything about how they work! Easy.

 

[Magua]

This is why they merely have to fire every single person currently employed and change everything about how they work! Easy.

Sounds like Buffalo. Pass.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

I think people put too much weight on player development from an organizational standpoint. Most player development happens individually by the player. The biggest thing an org can do for a player is put them in the right opportunity to thrive and utilize their skills optimally.

well that last bit is the exact opposite of what the Flyers do...

 

[Random Forest]

The Flyers haven’t picked in volume. They haven’t targeted (mostly) the right types, pre and post draft. They’re abysmal at developing. They refuse to acquire high picks (and jettisoned their highest value one after 1 year). Saying they just need to aggressively be good at the things they aren’t good at is like saying a pigeon could sing opera if only it knew Italian. They’re not even average at any of those things!

I never said they were any good at those things! I never said they’ve ever been good at any of those things. (Though, at least in the Hextall era there was a real emphasis on volume drafting.)

I said those things are prerequisites to success under any strategy, and I am saying that extending Konecny can work if they also are able to do those things. And conversely, they will still fail miserably for the next 10 years whether they trade Konecny or extend him if they’re not able to do those things.

The jury is out on if Briere can do those things.

And relatedly, it’s not just about finding hidden talent at the draft. It’s also about just finding hidden or relatively unheralded talent in general. Just of players still in the playoffs now, Hyman, Forsling, Verhaeghe, Montour, even Trochek were all relatively unheralded acquisitions, either via UFA or minimal value in trade, who are now core contributors. Even Zibanejad and Fox were not acquired with any expectation that they would be as good as they’ve been.

That’s where Hextall truly failed. He was generally not bad at drafting in volume and maximizing the chance of finding something at the draft, but he absolutely could not find talent to supplement the lineup. Instead we wasted a pretty decent core with plugs like Filppula, Manning, Weise, and Lehtera, just off the top of my head, on the hope that all the prospects in the system would pan out as we hoped and create a complete lineup. They didn’t.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I never said they were any good at those things! I never said they’ve ever been good at any of those things. (Though, at least in the Hextall era there was a real emphasis on volume drafting.)

I said those things are prerequisites to success under any strategy, and I am saying that extending Konecny can work if they also are able to do those things. And conversely, they will still fail miserably for the next 10 years whether they trade Konecny or extend him if they’re not able to do those things.

The jury is out on if Briere can do those things.

And relatedly, it’s not just about finding hidden talent at the draft. It’s also about just finding hidden or relatively unheralded talent in general. Just of players still in the playoffs now, Hyman, Forsling, Verhaeghe, Montour, even Trochek were all relatively unheralded acquisitions, either via UFA or minimal value in trade, who are now core contributors. Even Zibanejad and Fox were not acquired with any expectation that they would be as good as they’ve been.

That’s where Hextall truly failed. He was generally not bad at drafting in volume and maximizing the chance of finding something at the draft, but he absolutely could not find talent to supplement the lineup. Instead we wasted a pretty decent core with plugs like Filppula, Manning, Weise, and Lehtera, just off the top of my head, on the hope that all the prospects in the system would pan out as we hoped and create a complete lineup. They didn’t.

You don't find VDV to be a worthy specimen?

 

[Random Forest]

You don't find VDV to be a worthy specimen?

Big body, played the game the right way. So odd that he couldn’t find a job after being in the lineup every game for the Flyers…

 

[Beef Invictus]

Big body, played the game the right way. So odd that he couldn’t find a job after being in the lineup every game for the Flyers…

Weird, that

 

[TCTC]

Of course, this does serve as an argument in favor of trading TK for picks to maximize your chances at being lucky. I am glad it isn't my responsibility to decide.

I just don't think that TK is established enough to be that franchise altering move like trading Carter and Richards was. If we trade him for a pick in the 10-20 range the best we can hope for is to get a younger version of him and how likely is that really?

 

[Kelmitchell2]

I just don't think that TK is established enough to be that franchise altering move like trading Carter and Richards was. If we trade him for a pick in the 10-20 range the best we can hope for is to get a younger version of him and how likely is that really?

Then again back to back 30 goal campaigns will also spike his value up