2023-24 Roster Thread #9: Spring time is upon us

[blackjackmulligan]

You buy out Atkinson. Konecny and Tippett are the top 2 RW. Are we convinced that Foerster can replace what TK brings? I am not.
Gurianov is not a NHL player and Hathaway should stay on the 4th line.
They are cap strapped but trading TK makes this team worse. Find another way.

With or without TK they are not a cup contending team in the foreseeable future.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Everybody keeps quoting the Stars model, but I check on their board and I don’t remember the specifics but besides the 2 drafts where they got all those players, it was like only 2 or 3 NHL players drafted (including Heiskanen) the previous 7 years or whatever. In other words they drafted really poorly for a long time then hit a good luck streak.

Everybody comments on how they found all these players - but honestly, just seems like they regressed back to their mean after going years of drafting barren. I don’t think they discovered some magical secret.

These streaks often have to happen. The Rangers streak was in 3-4 high end players only wanting to play for them. The Devils streak was that somehow all their top 5 picks are actually living up to their hype, rather than some busting. If you don’t hit these streaks of trades or draft boons, you end up like the Flyers, Senators and Sabres.

The sentiment on this team is so bad because we really have had a lot of shitty luck compounded by bad leadership. Maybe the latter is resolved, but until Danny gets a little lucky too nobody will have faith. Maybe this Russian streak is our luck; who knows. Maybe he pulls off a couple of shrewd trades (already has with Walker), but more of those are needed.

The TK trade really depends on the return. If we get the Sabres 11 and Ostlund, then I’d say good bye. If we’re getting a late first and a B prospect pass. We need the assets coming back from TK to have a significant enough chance to be better than him in 5 years; even if they are just as good is a failure IMO.

What was shrewd about the Walker trade?

The value of TK is becoming very overrated imo.

 

[Beef Invictus]

No idea! But there are names available (Marner, Necas, Zegras, etc) who may or may not be worth pursuing, and all I’m saying is that it’s not remotely clear to me why trading Konecny and blowing everything up is preferable to trying to supplement the talent already in the org.

I am against trading TK because they won't get value for him. There's no way a management group that would struggle to get proper value for someone like TK is going to manage to bring in top end talent to supplement him.

 

[mr figgles]

It’s true that the Dallas model (which I prefer) requires a lot of luck and shrewd management. You probably need each of the following things to happen:

—Michkov becomes the 90+ point guy we hope he will be
—The pick this year yields an elite talent
—Drysdale takes a leap forward in his development OR they can convert existing assets into a highly productive two way defender
—York continues developing into a steady #2 guy who can eat minutes
—Foerster takes another big step forward, turns into a cost effective all-situations player
—Bonk and Barkey are able to be effective contributors on their ELCs
—Couturier bounces back or his contract gets disposed of in a minimally cap-crushing way
—Konecny maintains his current level of play for at least three more years and then declines gracefully
—At least one or two of Farabee, Frost, or Brink become core offensive contributors
—The goalie situation is resolved with one of the guys in the system

But at the same time, the Trade Konecny scenario requires almost all of those things to happen too, except maybe you don’t necessarily need this year’s pick to be an elite player, but you do need to actually get at least one Hagens/McKenna level prospect out of the next couple drafts.

Either way, it’s going to require a ton of luck. I just think the second model is not really an easy thing to control and then emerge from.

You‘re looking at TK being here for another 9 years, and are hoping he‘ll be good for 3 of them. That‘s terrible management. And, the problem with looking at guys like Benn and Seguin is that TK has never been as good as they were. They have both been top 10 in league scoring a couple of times, and Benn won the Art Ross. You‘re looking at peak Konecny right now, and he looks like peak Can Atkinson. You see how well that is going, and Cam didn‘t get the 8 years at 8.5+ that TK is going to get.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Why keep him on the team?

Flyers are rebuilding is why no? ride it out. Maybe he has a fluke year in what may be his last in the AHL. Him on the 4th line is fine

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Benn won the Art Ross scoring 87 points. The weakest Art Ross of them all.
Seguin is a Center. I just want to know what your plan is to replace the best player on this team. Unless a similar player is coming back I am not interested. I have no interest in replacing TK with a draft pick and a prospect that likely never comes close to what TK brings.
How long ago did Atkinson get that long term deal? The 2 contracts won’t be comparable.

 

[ponder719]

why is everyone just penciling in MM's game transitioning to NHL success...

until hes actualy playing and playing well on NHL ice/systems he could just as easily be the next Zherdev...

Because if that isn't true, nothing else we do will yield positive results. Can't control for that, so let's do all the other things that support where we need to be if that comes to pass; that at least puts us in the right place if things don't go to shit with Michkov.

Edit: And if they do, then we go right back to square one, the "find elite talent" stage.

 

[BernieParent]

You are not getting better next season if you are trading TK this summer.

Is this the primary objective? If they are to be believed, Briere and company said their goal was to build a team for longstanding contention for a Stanley Cup. They emphasized over and over that they are rebuilding. This has not been a rebuild, apart from dealing away the undesirables.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Is this the primary objective? If they are to be believed, Briere and company said their goal was to build a team for longstanding contention for a Stanley Cup. They emphasized over and over that they are rebuilding. This has not been a rebuild, apart from dealing away the undesirables.

I don’t know what their objectives are anymore. I am just getting tired of being stuck where they are. Trading TK for futures doesn’t help building a contending roster.

 

[BernieParent]

Of course it is. But that list is equally long in the scenario where you trade Konecny, and there’s only more room for error in that scenario. Even the most foolproof tear down strategy requires you to 1) actually finish last, 2) win the lottery, and 3) draft the franchise-altering player we hope for. Then you still actually need all those other roster building items listed above to hit, but you also have to do it while sucking for a long time in an environment that is more difficult to retain talent.

And, again, whoever you get in return for Konecny is an even longer shot to ever replace Konecny’s impact at all. It’s one thing when we’re talking about replacing the impact of Scott Laughton. It’s another thing when we’re having to replace the impact of the team’s leading scorer who is only 27.

Trading Konecny extends the runway of opportunity. Let's say that Briere is able to trade him for Savoie and a top-10 protected 2025 1st. With both their own and the Buffalo 1st, the Flyers select C prospects. Add to that the BPA for their 2024 12th is likely a toss-up between a C and a D prospect with top pairing upside. And they have late 1sts from Florida this year and Colorado the next. All of a sudden, the black hole of C becomes a strength, Michkov and Tippett are the top 6 RWs, and the Flyers have an extra $10 million to spend. Drafting in quantity increases one's odds of a top-end player at a position of need.

 

[Random Forest]

You‘re looking at TK being here for another 9 years, and are hoping he‘ll be good for 3 of them.

That is very obviously not what I said. Not worth responding to any of the rest if you are going to distort the premise this much.

 

[Random Forest]

Trading Konecny extends the runway of opportunity. Let's say that Briere is able to trade him for Savoie and a top-10 protected 2025 1st. With both their own and the Buffalo 1st, the Flyers select C prospects. Add to that the BPA for their 2024 12th is likely a toss-up between a C and a D prospect with top pairing upside. And they have late 1sts from Florida this year and Colorado the next. All of a sudden, the black hole of C becomes a strength, Michkov and Tippett are the top 6 RWs, and the Flyers have an extra $10 million to spend. Drafting in quantity increases one's odds of a top-end player at a position of need.

In theory, perhaps. But I’m getting a little over the idea of a position being a strength if you have two or more blue chip prospects at the position. There was a time when D was a “position of strength” because we had Morin, Hagg, and Sanheim in the system.

Even the bluest chip prospects still only have, at best, a 50% chance of ever hitting Konecny’s level as a scorer (aside from the 1st overall pick in any given draft). Generously, that means a probability of 25% of neither player matching the guy you gave up, and a 25% chance of only one.

Maybe the cost control and timing are enough to make that a favorable proposition, but I don’t think it’s an obvious case at all, and given the current circumstances, I would much rather keep the only bona fide top line player in the organization who is still only 27.

 

[trostol]

Benn won the Art Ross scoring 87 points. The weakest Art Ross of them all.
Seguin is a Center. I just want to know what your plan is to replace the best player on this team. Unless a similar player is coming back I am not interested. I have no interest in replacing TK with a draft pick and a prospect that likely never comes close to what TK brings.
How long ago did Atkinson get that long term deal? The 2 contracts won’t be comparable.

what...exactly are you talking of in terms of what TK brings? being an asshat like Marchand? oh its those intangibles and culture isn't it? i mean there is a lot of hype on a gritty player that has yet to hit 70 points and people are reluctantly ready to drop 80 million for him

the only good excuse I have seen for not trading him so far is the Flyers won't get the right value

 

[mr figgles]

Benn won the Art Ross scoring 87 points. The weakest Art Ross of them all.
Seguin is a Center. I just want to know what your plan is to replace the best player on this team. Unless a similar player is coming back I am not interested. I have no interest in replacing TK with a draft pick and a prospect that likely never comes close to what TK brings.
How long ago did Atkinson get that long term deal? The 2 contracts won’t be comparable.

That was the environment they were playing in. Against their peers Benn and Seguin were two of the best. Multiple times in top 10 scoring. How does Konecny perform against his peers? Has he even cracked the top 50? It‘s why this franchise is a loser franchise. They made the mistake of tying up a ton of money in Couturier, and they are going to do it again with TK.

TK is going to get a higher cap % and more years than Atkinson. Imagine if Atkinson was making more money right now, and still had another year left. That‘s what you‘re looking at with an extension to TK.

 

[Random Forest]

“Intangibles” and “culture” have obviously been dumb mantras of dinosaur hockey culture morons for decades, but we have absolutely passed the point where online fans have swung the pendulum way too far in the opposite direction. Yes, they are real things, and yes, there is something valuable about having some long-term continuity, tenure, respect, and leadership within your organization. You don’t have to be Brian Burke to see that all organizations, well beyond sports, benefit from those qualities.

 

[BernieParent]

In theory, perhaps. But I’m getting a little over the idea of a position being a strength if you have two or more blue chip prospects at the position. There was a time when D was a “position of strength” because we had Morin, Hagg, and Sanheim in the system.

Even the bluest chip prospects still only have, at best, a 50% chance of ever hitting Konecny’s level as a scorer (aside from the 1st overall pick in any given draft). Generously, that means a probability of 25% of neither player matching the guy you gave up, and a 25% chance of only one.

Maybe the cost control and timing are enough to make that a favorable proposition, but I don’t think it’s an obvious case at all, and given the current circumstances, I would much rather keep the only bona fide top line player in the organization who is still only 27.

Great. The Flyers can reward Konecny for his career season with a lengthy and high-dollar contract ($9 million? $10 million?), necessitating buyouts and other desperation moves to control their precarious cap situation. How much would trading players like Farabee or Frost hamper the players from achieving their potential? How well insulated will Michkov or Konecny be with a C depth of Couturier / Poehling / Laughton / Cates for the next 1-2 years at least (assuming a C is drafting at 12 this year)?

This is the short-term, instant-gratification strategy that has hobbled the Flyers for years.

 

[FlyerNutter]

It’s such a frankly, lazy choice to re sign him. A high octane player where health should definitely be a factor (see Arvidsson).

They chose to hang on to Simmonds. Extend Sanheim prematurely. Do the same with Couturier.

The last player I can think of they moved that was a little “risky” was Brayden Schenn.

Rebuild my ass, and I’m not even talking that dreaded (gasp) tank. The Flyers refuse to step back if given a choice, only when it’s forced upon them.

Not running to FA the last few years isn’t a sign of rebuilding. It’s just the lazier choice to sign him, instead of looking for creative ways to use the asset.

 

[Magua]

Konecny is absolutely better than prime Cam Atkinson, c'mon.

I also am as confident as Miss Cleo that the Flyers will not become the next Dallas.

Great. The Flyers can reward Konecny for his career season with a lengthy and high-dollar contract ($9 million? $10 million?), necessitating buyouts and other desperation moves to control their precarious cap situation. How much would trading players like Farabee or Frost hamper the players from achieving their potential? How well insulated will Michkov or Konecny be with a C depth of Couturier / Poehling / Laughton / Cates for the next 1-2 years at least (assuming a C is drafting at 12 this year)?

This is the short-term, instant-gratification strategy that has hobbled the Flyers for years.

The irony of not tearing down harder the last 2 years -- and knowing where your prospect pool stands -- is that it could've made Konecny's next contract more logical.

You're right, Bern, they're in the doldrums and don't know how to get any wind in their sails. Honestly, if they traded Konecny with 1 year on his contract for a Bonk Part Two deal, I don't think they escape it either. I'm just so apathetic.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

Whether they extend or trade him at this point won't change the fact that they still won't have a proper direction. Neither option is congruent with a coherent plan to be a contender.

They put themselves here

 

[Random Forest]

Great. The Flyers can reward Konecny for his career season with a lengthy and high-dollar contract ($9 million? $10 million?), necessitating buyouts and other desperation moves to control their precarious cap situation. How much would trading players like Farabee or Frost hamper the players from achieving their potential? How well insulated will Michkov or Konecny be with a C depth of Couturier / Poehling / Laughton / Cates for the next 1-2 years at least (assuming a C is drafting at 12 this year)?

This is the short-term, instant-gratification strategy that has hobbled the Flyers for years.

I don’t find the cap situation all that precarious. Certainly not in the long term. They have three forwards signed beyond 2026-27.

The whole point of bringing up Dallas was not to say “hey we can be them!!”, it was to illustrate that the cap situation is not irreparably screwed if your current leading scorer and best player is *maybe* a bit overpaid in his 31-35 y/o years when he’s no longer your best player.

I don’t like paying him 9M AAV, and we can argue about how they got here, but right now, you have two paths with Konecny, and one of them looks pretty bleak to me. The other looks frustrating but tolerable. This is the reality every team faces with pending UFAs.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

So I guess I am in the minority of keeping TK. That’s fine. Who are we wanting to keep going forward who are on this roster right now.

 

[ponder719]

So I guess I am in the minority of keeping TK. That’s fine. Who are we wanting to keep going forward who are on this roster right now.

My thought is to keep Brink, Tippett, Farabee, Cates (long term if the price is reasonable, short term if he's looking for $3.5 or $4 on his next deal), Frost, Poehling, and Foerster, plus Couturier, who I don't see any reasonable trade option for, as the veteran leader. Atkinson can stay until he expires (I don't want a dead cap hit next year), Johansen probably has to stay because he's el tear, I'd trade Laughton and Konecny over the summer as they should return nice packages, I'd move Deslauriers if someone will take him, but I know the team won't, Hathaway is a great TDL move.

Defense, Sanheim and Seeler aren't going anywhere, York and Zamula make good sense to keep, I'd move Risto if I could.

GK, Ersson and Fedotov are fine as is.

I'm thinking we could bring in one or two young players in trade, which would improve this outlook, but if not, we have the following:

Farabee-Frost-Brink
????-Couturier-Tippett
Hathaway-Poehling-Foerster
Atkinson-Cates-Deslauriers

Of course, this is me not counting chickens with Michkov, he takes whatever spot in the lineup you want him to when he shows up, and move everyoen else accordingly.

If you want to sign a cheap veteran FA to fil a LW position, I'm fine with that for one year; if Tuomaala, Desnoyers, or Lycksell can hold down that spot, that's better.

On D, I'm filling out the last three spots with Attard, Ginning, and Belpedio, I don't want to spend money there, but if they absolutely must have a decrepit old binky, don't pick up a walking corpse like Staal or Erik Johnson, go sign a Colin Miller or Jani Hakanpää type, someone born in the 90s.

 

[freakydallas13]

The strange dichotomy where Konecny is so good and important to this team that you can't trade him, but also if you did try to trade him you won't get much of a return because he isn't that good.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

My thought is to keep Brink, Tippett, Farabee, Cates (long term if the price is reasonable, short term if he's looking for $3.5 or $4 on his next deal), Frost, Poehling, and Foerster, plus Couturier, who I don't see any reasonable trade option for, as the veteran leader. Atkinson can stay until he expires (I don't want a dead cap hit next year), Johansen probably has to stay because he's el tear, I'd trade Laughton and Konecny over the summer as they should return nice packages, I'd move Deslauriers if someone will take him, but I know the team won't, Hathaway is a great TDL move.

Defense, Sanheim and Seeler aren't going anywhere, York and Zamula make good sense to keep, I'd move Risto if I could.

GK, Ersson and Fedotov are fine as is.

I'm thinking we could bring in one or two young players in trade, which would improve this outlook, but if not, we have the following:

Farabee-Frost-Brink
????-Couturier-Tippett
Hathaway-Poehling-Foerster
Atkinson-Cates-Deslauriers

Of course, this is me not counting chickens with Michkov, he takes whatever spot in the lineup you want him to when he shows up, and move everyoen else accordingly.

If you want to sign a cheap veteran FA to fil a LW position, I'm fine with that for one year; if Tuomaala, Desnoyers, or Lycksell can hold down that spot, that's better.

On D, I'm filling out the last three spots with Attard, Ginning, and Belpedio, I don't want to spend money there, but if they absolutely must have a decrepit old binky, don't pick up a walking corpse like Staal or Erik Johnson, go sign a Colin Miller or Jani Hakanpää type, someone born in the 90s.

for a final year rebuild team your lineup looks very much like the same ol same ol..

so much so thats prolly what the Flyers will do.

#sameolOrange

The strange dichotomy where Konecny is so good and important to this team that you can't trade him, but also if you did try to trade him you won't get much of a return because he isn't that good.

Laughton says hello...

 

[Random Forest]

The strange dichotomy where Konecny is so good and important to this team that you can't trade him, but also if you did try to trade him you won't get much of a return because he isn't that good.

With this logic you, would never keep anyone.

Yes, many players in the league — in fact, almost all of them — are more valuable to their current team than their return would be in a trade.