2023-24 Roster Thread #9: Spring time is upon us

[bauer]

Zero players who scored 80+ points this year did so without a team mate who also scored 60+.

Again, put Konecny on a team with at least one other high end talent (and a functional PP) and he’s an 80+ point player. Very few players in the top 30 would have had close to the point totals they had if they were in Konecny’s situation.

that's because those high end players make the others around them better. it just proves the point even more that TK shouldn't be given a crazy contract when he can't elevate his teammates.

interestingly enough though, last year Keller managed to put up 86 points without any elite talent around him. 2nd on the Coyotes was Schmaltz with 58. it can be done. i don't see TK as a 80-90 point player unless he's got a superstar C like McDavid feeding him.

You’re not going to convince me that Konecny “doesn’t fit”. He’s 27. “Approaching 30” and being… actually 30 is a difference of three years in this case.

Unless we’re getting a top 10 quality prospect for him, the odds of coming out ahead in a Konecny trade over the next ~six years is not high in my view.

I’d be more interested in trying to land a Brady Tkachuk or Martin Necas at or before the draft without losing Konecny. Then in the next ~three years, you’ll need Michkov, Bonk, Barkey, and this years 12th OV to hit, and you can possibly have a competitive roster construction. If we can get an impact defenseman out of this coming draft, I think you’re actually in a position to make it work *if* Briere is shrewd enough to supplement the roster opportunistically. In a lot of ways, that’s the most critical piece. Finding players like Devon Toews and Gus Forsling is what distinguishes the elite teams from the ones who can’t take that step.

TK's next contract years will be ages 28-36. assuming it's 8 years. how many of those will he even he good? he's closer to Atkinson than Giroux, and look how fast he fell off. Atkinson was putting up very similar numbers to TK 5 years ago. 30 goals, 60 points. injuries played a role but why would we think TK would be that much different? so we pay him for the years when the team is nowhere near a contender? makes no sense.

it's not just about what you get back for TK in a trade either. the cap space is more important than the return. that 9m or so could be used to bring in a 1C/1D. what if a player like Eichel becomes available again in the next year or two? we won't have the money to try and trade for them because we'll be spending 2/3 of our cap on wingers.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I'm not trade TK at all costs but an individual pick/player you get in return doesn't have to be as good as TK for it to be a worthwhile trade. Surely we can comprehend cost controlled value by now, plus whatever cap flexibility you can utilize from such a deal. Do I have confidence in the people making the decisions to make the most of that situation? No, but it's an avenue.

As an aside, at some point the bubble is going to burst on all of the max term contracts they have handed out recently. TK deserves one, but....yeah.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

There's no right or wrong answer at this stage with TK. He should have been flipped within the last 2 years for a ransom, but given where they are now either path could work. Unfortunately the entire situation is still indictive of this organizations half measure strategy over the past 10-15 years. It doesn't feel like any of the paths available at this stage will be giving a home run.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

ASF hemming & hawing in this clip hitting every pre-bad contract excuse possible on the bingo card. The cap is going up! You could always trade him at a later date! I love hearing those things accompanied with a potential fresh signing.

I was kind of in between on the idea of re-signing Konecny or not but that was when the thought process was like in the $8-9M per year range.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

ASF hemming & hawing in this clip hitting every pre-bad contract excuse possible on the bingo card. The cap is going up! You could always trade him at a later date! I love hearing those things accompanied with a potential fresh signing.

I was kind of in between on the idea of re-signing Konecny or not but that was when the thought process was like in the $8-9M per year range.

Yeah, I always laugh when a new contract is being signed and people are already bringing up the fact you can dump it later Always a great sign.

 

[trostol]

everyone knows that new contract will come with a NTC/NMC

 

[mr figgles]

There isn’t a player on this team who can bring what he does. He is the guy that stirs the drink. Aren’t we supposed to try and get better as a team?

They can get better without signing Konecny to a contract that they will regret when Michkov is in his prime.

 

[Random Forest]

that's because those high end players make the others around them better. it just proves the point even more that TK shouldn't be given a crazy contract when he can't elevate his teammates.

interestingly enough though, last year Keller managed to put up 86 points without any elite talent around him. 2nd on the Coyotes was Schmaltz with 58. it can be done. i don't see TK as a 80-90 point player unless he's got a superstar C like McDavid feeding him.



TK's next contract years will be ages 28-36. assuming it's 8 years. how many of those will he even he good? he's closer to Atkinson than Giroux, and look how fast he fell off. Atkinson was putting up very similar numbers to TK 5 years ago. 30 goals, 60 points. injuries played a role but why would we think TK would be that much different? so we pay him for the years when the team is nowhere near a contender? makes no sense.

it's not just about what you get back for TK in a trade either. the cap space is more important than the return. that 9m or so could be used to bring in a 1C/1D. what if a player like Eichel becomes available again in the next year or two? we won't have the money to try and trade for them because we'll be spending 2/3 of our cap on wingers.

Keller is an outstanding player. I don’t really consider it a knock on Konecny to come up short in that comparison (though not even that short, tbh, especially if you’re just looking at Konecny’s 5v5 impact).

I get all the arguments for not wanting to blow your cap on Konecny. But I see this like Jamie Benn for Dallas in ~2017. He signed a 9.5M AAV deal, and even though he hasn’t produced like a 9.5M player at really any point during that deal, the Stars have made it work and probably wouldn’t be where they are right now without him. The Benn-Seguin era transitioned fairly seamlessly into the Robertson-Hintz-Heiskanen era despite Benn and Seguin both over 9.5M AAV. The Stars would not be in a better situation if they traded those two seven years ago because they’d rather take chances on more high picks. Of course, that also took shrewd management and sharp drafting, which is a prerequisite (as I said, we’ll need Michkov, Bonk, Barkey, and this year’s 1st all to hit).

The point is you can’t just cut bait with your best players when they turn 27 because you don’t want to pay them a UFA’s contract and expect to replenish their impact easily. Sometimes it needs to be done, but you absolutely can make it work, and in the Flyers’ case, I kind of think they have to. I don’t see the Michkov era working if they’re gambling it all on being able to trade Konecny and luck into the 1st overall pick or whatever that plan would be.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

Well if it is not 14 or better then what? Just cave and give him 9 million plus for 8 years? No thanks.
Can only trade for what the market is at the time.

IMO they missed the boat to maximize value on a TK trade.


100%. They wanted to make the playoffs and focused on a young NHL player to help them now.

Then you are looking for players or prospects - we'll see

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Yeah, I always laugh when a new contract is being signed and people are already bringing up the fact you can dump it later Always a great sign.

He really argued that Konecny on a 7-8 year deal at that high cap hit would be more valuable in the future than if he was on a shorter term deal with that cap hit. This man covers baseball for a living too where their front offices are far more concerned with term than AAV when it comes to their FA’s.

I’d actually give the Flyers more credit if they signed Konecny to like a 5-6 year at that cap hit because it would show some economic foresight by them.

 

[flyersnorth]

I get all the arguments for not wanting to blow your cap on Konecny. But I see this like Jamie Benn for Dallas in ~2017. He signed a 9.5M AAV deal, and even though he hasn’t produced like a 9.5M player at really any point during that deal, the Stars have made it work and probably wouldn’t be where they are right now without him. The Benn-Seguin era transitioned fairly seamlessly into the Robertson-Hintz-Heiskanen era despite Benn and Seguin both over 9.5M AAV. The Stars would not be in a better situation if they traded those two seven years ago because they’d rather take chances on more high picks. Of course, that also took shrewd management and sharp drafting, which is a prerequisite (as I said, we’ll need Michkov, Bonk, Barkey, and this year’s 1st all to hit).

I mentioned earlier in a thread that if Patrick and Gauthier had panned out, or if we had, say Pettersson and Jiricek to go along with Michkov, we'd be in a similar situation to transition to a team with young high end talent.

But missing on those two top 5 picks leaves us with Michkov as the sole potential elite player in the system. I don't think that's enough, and we don't have anyone close to elite in the system.

The challenge will be acquiring one or two more of those elite/near-elite level talents. It's definitely possible, but missing on those two golden draft opportunities set the franchise back years.

 

[Random Forest]

I mentioned earlier in a thread that if Patrick and Gauthier had panned out, or if we had, say Pettersson and Jiricek to go along with Michkov, we'd be in a similar situation to transition to a team with young high end talent.

But missing on those two top 5 picks leaves us with Michkov as the sole potential elite player in the system. I don't think that's enough, and we don't have anyone close to elite in the system.

The challenge will be acquiring one or two more of those elite/near-elite level talents. It's definitely possible, but missing on those two golden draft opportunities set the franchise back years.

Totally agree. The Patrick bust is the single biggest wrench. Everything is different if he had been what we hoped he could be.

 

[FlyerNutter]

ASF hemming & hawing in this clip hitting every pre-bad contract excuse possible on the bingo card. The cap is going up! You could always trade him at a later date! I love hearing those things accompanied with a potential fresh signing.

I was kind of in between on the idea of re-signing Konecny or not but that was when the thought process was like in the $8-9M per year range.

The better part of that pod was ASF going on about how he wants Dallas or Florida to win the cup. Bringing up Jonesy because that’s how the Flyers want to build a team. Brings up the Blues, and Knights.

He’s just a parrot for the organization. He would take a bullet for Keith Jones.

They think giving 10 to TK is a smart play, just like they thought giving Couturier a mega deal was a good move.

A team so bereft of any decent talent being forced to overpay for the little bit of actually talent they have.

 

[BillDineen]

Meier fits the devils timeliness way better than tk fits the Flyers as the devils have all key positions filled with high end prospects.

Dallas has drafted exceptionally well. If you are relying on mimicking Dallas, a lot of luck is key.

Tk doesn't fit the timeline. His Ufa discount years will be before it is needed and then you are left with the back end. Trade tk now or even double retained at the deadline targeting a g type return

 

[Random Forest]

It’s true that the Dallas model (which I prefer) requires a lot of luck and shrewd management. You probably need each of the following things to happen:

—Michkov becomes the 90+ point guy we hope he will be
—The pick this year yields an elite talent
—Drysdale takes a leap forward in his development OR they can convert existing assets into a highly productive two way defender
—York continues developing into a steady #2 guy who can eat minutes
—Foerster takes another big step forward, turns into a cost effective all-situations player
—Bonk and Barkey are able to be effective contributors on their ELCs
—Couturier bounces back or his contract gets disposed of in a minimally cap-crushing way
—Konecny maintains his current level of play for at least three more years and then declines gracefully
—At least one or two of Farabee, Frost, or Brink become core offensive contributors
—The goalie situation is resolved with one of the guys in the system

But at the same time, the Trade Konecny scenario requires almost all of those things to happen too, except maybe you don’t necessarily need this year’s pick to be an elite player, but you do need to actually get at least one Hagens/McKenna level prospect out of the next couple drafts.

Either way, it’s going to require a ton of luck. I just think the second model is not really an easy thing to control and then emerge from.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Why would they buy out Atkinson in that scenario?

Why keep him on the team?

 

[Random Forest]

delete

 

[Flyerfan4life]

why is everyone just penciling in MM's game transitioning to NHL success...

until hes actualy playing and playing well on NHL ice/systems he could just as easily be the next Zherdev...

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

They can get better without signing Konecny to a contract that they will regret when Michkov is in his prime.

You are not getting better next season if you are trading TK this summer.

 

[trostol]

It’s true that the Dallas model (which I prefer) requires a lot of luck and shrewd management. You probably need each of the following things to happen:

—Michkov becomes the 90+ point guy we hope he will be
—The pick this year yields an elite talent
—Drysdale takes a leap forward in his development OR they can convert existing assets into a highly productive two way defender
—York continues developing into a steady #2 guy who can eat minutes
—Foerster takes another big step forward, turns into a cost effective all-situations player
—Bonk and Barkey are able to be effective contributors on their ELCs
—Couturier bounces back or his contract gets disposed of in a minimally cap-crushing way
—Konecny maintains his current level of play for at least three more years and then declines gracefully
—At least one or two of Farabee, Frost, or Brink become core offensive contributors
—The goalie situation is resolved with one of the guys in the system

But at the same time, the Trade Konecny scenario requires almost all of those things to happen too, except maybe you don’t necessarily need this year’s pick to be an elite player, but you do need to actually get at least one Hagens/McKenna level prospect out of the next couple drafts.

Either way, it’s going to require a ton of luck. I just think the second model is not really an easy thing to control and then emerge from.

that a lot of things that need to go right...but trading TK..nets you...hopefully a bit longer time because in theory you should be trading for a guy younger than he is

and where we are picking in this years draft with our scouts...the person they pick will not be elite

 

[Random Forest]

that a lot of things that need to go right...but trading TK..nets you...hopefully a bit longer time because in theory you should be trading for a guy younger than he is

and where we are picking in this years draft with our scouts...the person they pick will not be elite

Of course it is. But that list is equally long in the scenario where you trade Konecny, and there’s only more room for error in that scenario. Even the most foolproof tear down strategy requires you to 1) actually finish last, 2) win the lottery, and 3) draft the franchise-altering player we hope for. Then you still actually need all those other roster building items listed above to hit, but you also have to do it while sucking for a long time in an environment that is more difficult to retain talent.

And, again, whoever you get in return for Konecny is an even longer shot to ever replace Konecny’s impact at all. It’s one thing when we’re talking about replacing the impact of Scott Laughton. It’s another thing when we’re having to replace the impact of the team’s leading scorer who is only 27.

 

[trostol]

i have a feeling replacing not even 70 points really won't be that difficult compared to not being locked into a guy for possibly 10 million a year over 8 years

 

[Random Forest]

All I’m saying is that the Stars could have said that ~7 years ago in regard to Benn and Seguin and it wouldn’t have worked out all that well for them. Sometimes you just need to retain your best players and continue building around them.

I’m not saying it never makes sense to cut bait and maximize value, but that’s not always the optimal play, and I don’t think that’s the case here if you can get Konecny at an AAV of ~9M. I agree that 10M+ is a much harder sell for me.

 

[thedjpd]

All I’m saying is that the Stars could have said that ~7 years ago in regard to Benn and Seguin and it wouldn’t have worked out all that well for them. Sometimes you just need to retain your best players and continue building around them.

I’m not saying it never makes sense to cut bait and maximize value, but that’s not always the optimal play, and I don’t think that’s the case here if you can get Konecny at an AAV of ~9M. I agree that 10M+ is a much harder sell for me.

Everybody keeps quoting the Stars model, but I check on their board and I don’t remember the specifics but besides the 2 drafts where they got all those players, it was like only 2 or 3 NHL players drafted (including Heiskanen) the previous 7 years or whatever. In other words they drafted really poorly for a long time then hit a good luck streak.

Everybody comments on how they found all these players - but honestly, just seems like they regressed back to their mean after going years of drafting barren. I don’t think they discovered some magical secret.

These streaks often have to happen. The Rangers streak was in 3-4 high end players only wanting to play for them. The Devils streak was that somehow all their top 5 picks are actually living up to their hype, rather than some busting. If you don’t hit these streaks of trades or draft boons, you end up like the Flyers, Senators and Sabres.

The sentiment on this team is so bad because we really have had a lot of shitty luck compounded by bad leadership. Maybe the latter is resolved, but until Danny gets a little lucky too nobody will have faith. Maybe this Russian streak is our luck; who knows. Maybe he pulls off a couple of shrewd trades (already has with Walker), but more of those are needed.

The TK trade really depends on the return. If we get the Sabres 11 and Ostlund, then I’d say good bye. If we’re getting a late first and a B prospect pass. We need the assets coming back from TK to have a significant enough chance to be better than him in 5 years; even if they are just as good is a failure IMO.

 

[wankstifier]

Why keep him on the team?

Because his contract expires after next season.

You talked about extending Konecny for 2025-2026 and beyond. Buying out Atkinson would add a $1.76MM hit to 2025-2026, which seems counterproductive to your goal.