2023-24 Roster Thread #9: Spring time is upon us

[blackjackmulligan]

Thanks for your reply, Jack. I don't think that value is far off for Konecny, although I would take a 2025 1st. He is a high-level player in his prime.

Look at the return for Jake Guentzel. Would that be a good return for TK?

Would love to get the Buffalo 1st for him as would do that straight up. Retain 50% and maybe expand the deal to include Laughton

 

[Random Forest]

As Bern mentioned, Buffalo would make a good target. You are likely getting a top 6 or top 4 D there plus a roster player and I would guess a 2nd. Then you have that cap space that could be used to sign 2 good players. I love TK but he is approaching 30 and does not fit.


If you can flip TK for those players +/- then yes. Not sure we can afford or actually form a trade at all with the assets we have and need to keep. You have to let go of TK for picks or players that are more needed or will be better fits.

You’re not going to convince me that Konecny “doesn’t fit”. He’s 27. “Approaching 30” and being… actually 30 is a difference of three years in this case.

Unless we’re getting a top 10 quality prospect for him, the odds of coming out ahead in a Konecny trade over the next ~six years is not high in my view.

I’d be more interested in trying to land a Brady Tkachuk or Martin Necas at or before the draft without losing Konecny. Then in the next ~three years, you’ll need Michkov, Bonk, Barkey, and this years 12th OV to hit, and you can possibly have a competitive roster construction. If we can get an impact defenseman out of this coming draft, I think you’re actually in a position to make it work *if* Briere is shrewd enough to supplement the roster opportunistically. In a lot of ways, that’s the most critical piece. Finding players like Devon Toews and Gus Forsling is what distinguishes the elite teams from the ones who can’t take that step.

It’s either that, or you tear it down this summer and hope and pray that you land one of Hagens or McKenna in the next two drafts while also trying to retain your existing talent (and develop that talent, including Michkov) on a basement dwelling team. Then you need it to actually work like Colorado and not like Buffalo, Ottawa, etc. It’s just not obvious to me how this would be a higher percentage strategy.

 

[AndHeMissedTheNet]

I'm not interested in moving on from Konecny this offseason unless they can absolutely fleece someone. I'm talking an extra lottery pick in this draft ++.

 

[pooch]

Feels like it’s inevitable they resign TK. I would look to move him, but they don’t think like that. They will move on from Farabee and Frost instead.

 

[flyersnorth]

Look at the return for Jake Guentzel. Would that be a good return for TK?

Would love to get the Buffalo 1st for him as would do that straight up. Retain 50% and maybe expand the deal to include Laughton

The Guentzel return...

Jake Guentzel was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes by the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday for forward Michael Bunting, forward prospects Vasily Ponomarev and Ville Koivunen, the rights to forward Cruz Lucius, a conditional first-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, and a conditional fifth-round pick in the 2024 draft.​

​

Carolina also received defenseman Ty Smith in the trade.​

​

The first-round selection will become a second-round selection in the 2024 draft if Carolina does not advance to the Stanley Cup Final. Pittsburgh, which will retain 25 percent of Guentzel's salary, also won't receive the fifth-round pick unless the Hurricanes win the Cup.​

Does Carolina have any intention of signing him?

In any case, Pittsburgh didn't get a 1st, and got what I'm assuming are B prospects? (those smarter than me, correct me if I'm wrong... ).

Personally I'd prefer quality over quantity, and a 1st with no conditions for TK is the bare minimum to get the conversation started (or the equivalent prospect level).

 

[AndHeMissedTheNet]

Feels like it’s inevitable they resign TK. I would look to move him, but they don’t think like that. They will move on from Farabee and Frost instead.

i'm even less keen to move on from Farabee than i am TK, that would make no sense.

i would say the same thing about Frost but i think we've all mentally prepared ourselves for Torts getting his way. though FWIW i don't know if even Torts is dense enough to do that and not at least get a player at the same position to slot right back into Frost's spot in the lineup.

 

[mr figgles]

Let‘s not make the mistake of signing a player at 28 to an 8 year deal, when what is supposed to be your core is significantly younger. He‘s not going to be worth that cap hit in the back half of that contract, when they are trying to compete for a cup with Michkov. It will hamstring their ability to sign their younger players coming into their prime, and to make other deals.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

The Guentzel return...

Jake Guentzel was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes by the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday for forward Michael Bunting, forward prospects Vasily Ponomarev and Ville Koivunen, the rights to forward Cruz Lucius, a conditional first-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, and a conditional fifth-round pick in the 2024 draft.​

​

Carolina also received defenseman Ty Smith in the trade.​

​

The first-round selection will become a second-round selection in the 2024 draft if Carolina does not advance to the Stanley Cup Final. Pittsburgh, which will retain 25 percent of Guentzel's salary, also won't receive the fifth-round pick unless the Hurricanes win the Cup.​

Does Carolina have any intention of signing him?

In any case, Pittsburgh didn't get a 1st, and got what I'm assuming are B prospects? (those smarter than me, correct me if I'm wrong... ).

Personally I'd prefer quality over quantity, and a 1st with no conditions for TK is the bare minimum to get the conversation started (or the equivalent prospect level).

Jake is better than TK. Not saying TK won't get a 1st (mid to late rd). So if using that as a base maybe he may not get back what many are hoping for is all I m saying.

 

[pooch]

i'm even less keen to move on from Farabee than i am TK, that would make no sense.

i would say the same thing about Frost but i think we've all mentally prepared ourselves for Torts getting his way. though FWIW i don't know if even Torts is dense enough to do that and not at least get a player at the same position to slot right back into Frost's spot in the lineup.

I wouldn’t move Farabee (unless it was an overpayment and a young C came our way) but it just feels like they will opt to move him and Frost before TK. Just a feeling…

 

[FlyerNutter]

Feels like it’s inevitable they resign TK. I would look to move him, but they don’t think like that. They will move on from Farabee and Frost instead.

ASF threw out Farabee’s name as the one to be moved.

Reports of him not getting along with John were out there.

Konecny will get paid, and in x amount of years we will again be asking why a supporting player isn’t overcoming the best guys on an opposing squad.

It’s all just the same nonsense. They refuse to take a step back. Refuse to rebuild.

 

[Random Forest]

I will say, given where circumstances have settled, holding Gauthier and trading him early this summer would have been the much wiser move, even if his intentions became public after BC’s season ended. For one, I doubt the Drysdale deal would have been off the table, and with rumors on Tkachuk, Necas, and Marner, it’s hard to not be disappointed that those options were never explored. Worst case scenario, you find a market clearing price at the draft, even if it’s the 15th overall pick + 2025 2nd from someone or whatever. But as plenty of people said, his value would have still held pretty much the same.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

$10.5M long term for Konecny is pretty insane.

 

[GKJ]

TK isn't high end talent? What planet are you on. TK is highly talented. He isn't scoring 70 goals sure.

Is he a generational talent? No

He is an allstar.

So was Frank Vatrano

 

[usahockey22flyers]

What will be a good haul at this stage? Mid to late 1st, good prospect, and nhl player? Maybe a cap dump? Flyers should 100% retain on any TK trade. That is where the value increases a lot imo.

find the underachievers - Detroit, Ottawa etc

No sense in trading him for pick 28. Need it 14 or better

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Let‘s not make the mistake of signing a player at 28 to an 8 year deal, when what is supposed to be your core is significantly younger. He‘s not going to be worth that cap hit in the back half of that contract, when they are trying to compete for a cup with Michkov. It will hamstring their ability to sign their younger players coming into their prime, and to make other deals.

There isn’t a player on this team who can bring what he does. He is the guy that stirs the drink. Aren’t we supposed to try and get better as a team?

 

[blackjackmulligan]

find the underachievers - Detroit, Ottawa etc

No sense in trading him for pick 28. Need it 14 or better

Well if it is not 14 or better then what? Just cave and give him 9 million plus for 8 years? No thanks.
Can only trade for what the market is at the time.

IMO they missed the boat to maximize value on a TK trade.

I will say, given where circumstances have settled, holding Gauthier and trading him early this summer would have been the much wiser move, even if his intentions became public after BC’s season ended. For one, I doubt the Drysdale deal would have been off the table, and with rumors on Tkachuk, Necas, and Marner, it’s hard to not be disappointed that those options were never explored. Worst case scenario, you find a market clearing price at the draft, even if it’s the 15th overall pick + 2025 2nd from someone or whatever. But as plenty of people said, his value would have still held pretty much the same.

100%. They wanted to make the playoffs and focused on a young NHL player to help them now.

 

[BernieParent]

Look at the return for Jake Guentzel. Would that be a good return for TK?

Would love to get the Buffalo 1st for him as would do that straight up. Retain 50% and maybe expand the deal to include Laughton

The Guentzel deal is a good comparator, although it is a TDL one and not preseason. I would agree to a top-10 protected pick, though, and not Carolina's stipulation of it becoming a 2nd if they don't make the SCF. The Penguins got quantity in 2nd-round prospects rather than the 1st round centre talent I would be seeking for a retained Konecny (25% was retained on Guentzel's contract). I do freely admit that I didn't do homework on the prospects (Vasily Ponomarev, Ville Koivunen, and the rights to Cruz Lucius) to see how they are faring. The Penguins also don't receive the conditional 5th round pick since Carolina won't win the Cup.

Konecny @ 50% retention for a full season should get equivalent, noting that Buffalo's 1st will be more valuable than Carolina's. It would likely have to be a sign and trade, though, unless Buffalo thinks they can negotiate a better deal. I honestly don't know what adding Laughton to this deal would bring back. Buffalo doesn't have any cap dump contracts; they only have 12 players signed at present for next season and half of the unsigned roster players are RFAs.

 

[Random Forest]

Maximizing value on TK is having a 70+ point guy who can keep up with Michkov, not trading him for a pick that has a ~30% chance of being what Konecny already is.

Well if it is not 14 or better then what? Just cave and give him 9 million plus for 8 years? No thanks.
Can only trade for what the market is at the time.

IMO they missed the boat to maximize value on a TK trade.


100%. They wanted to make the playoffs and focused on a young NHL player to help them now.

I don’t necessarily think that’s true either. If they were intent on cashing in Gauthier just to make the playoffs , I don’t think Drysdale would have been the target. They could have easily gotten a more established player. I don’t think there was all that much expectation that Drysdale was going to be a key contributor right off the bat.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Maximizing value on TK is having a 70+ point guy who can keep up with Michkov, not trading him for a pick that has a ~30% chance of being what Konecny already is.


I don’t necessarily think that’s true either. If they were intent on cashing in Gauthier just to make the playoffs , I don’t think Drysdale would have been the target. They could have easily gotten a more established player. I don’t think there was all that much expectation that Drysdale was going to be a key contributor right off the bat.

JD was a target. That has been established. They wanted a young NHL player. Preferable RHD. They were not going to take picks/ prospects. We have differing opinions.

Torts had a huge say in that deal.

 

[Random Forest]

JD was a target. That has been established. They wanted a young NHL player. Preferable RHD. They were not going to take picks/ prospects. We have differing opinions.

Torts had a huge say in that deal.

Okay, I’m just contending with the idea that it was done to maximize playoff chances for this season. They obviously targeted Drysdale, but not because he was the biggest impact player available.

 

[BernieParent]

You’re not going to convince me that Konecny “doesn’t fit”. He’s 27. “Approaching 30” and being… actually 30 is a difference of three years in this case.

Unless we’re getting a top 10 quality prospect for him, the odds of coming out ahead in a Konecny trade over the next ~six years is not high in my view.

I’d be more interested in trying to land a Brady Tkachuk or Martin Necas at or before the draft without losing Konecny. Then in the next ~three years, you’ll need Michkov, Bonk, Barkey, and this years 12th OV to hit, and you can possibly have a competitive roster construction. If we can get an impact defenseman out of this coming draft, I think you’re actually in a position to make it work *if* Briere is shrewd enough to supplement the roster opportunistically. In a lot of ways, that’s the most critical piece. Finding players like Devon Toews and Gus Forsling is what distinguishes the elite teams from the ones who can’t take that step.

It’s either that, or you tear it down this summer and hope and pray that you land one of Hagens or McKenna in the next two drafts while also trying to retain your existing talent (and develop that talent, including Michkov) on a basement dwelling team. Then you need it to actually work like Colorado and not like Buffalo, Ottawa, etc. It’s just not obvious to me how this would be a higher percentage strategy.

It isn't that Konecny the player doesn't fit in this roster. Konecny the 27-year-old $10 million RW is not the same discussion. The Flyers are cap-restricted and are deepest at RW, while having glaring needs for a 1D and a 1C. Konecny is the only top-tier movable piece that can garner a decent potential to address one of these slots.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

You buy out Atkinson. Konecny and Tippett are the top 2 RW. Are we convinced that Foerster can replace what TK brings? I am not.
Gurianov is not a NHL player and Hathaway should stay on the 4th line.
They are cap strapped but trading TK makes this team worse. Find another way.

 

[Random Forest]

It isn't that Konecny the player doesn't fit in this roster. Konecny the 27-year-old $10 million RW is not the same discussion. The Flyers are cap-restricted and are deepest at RW, while having glaring needs for a 1D and a 1C. Konecny is the only top-tier movable piece that can garner a decent potential to address one of these slots.

Let me reiterate that I don’t really want TK at 10m either, but you’re not going to trade him for a better offensive player, so you’re just creating a bigger hole and making it harder (impossible) for the rest of the team (and Michkov when he gets here) to achieve their potential. The team needs *more* high end talent. You don’t solve that by trading your only high end offensive talent.

 

[TheKingPin]

You’re not going to convince me that Konecny “doesn’t fit”. He’s 27. “Approaching 30” and being… actually 30 is a difference of three years in this case.

Unless we’re getting a top 10 quality prospect for him, the odds of coming out ahead in a Konecny trade over the next ~six years is not high in my view.

I’d be more interested in trying to land a Brady Tkachuk or Martin Necas at or before the draft without losing Konecny. Then in the next ~three years, you’ll need Michkov, Bonk, Barkey, and this years 12th OV to hit, and you can possibly have a competitive roster construction. If we can get an impact defenseman out of this coming draft, I think you’re actually in a position to make it work *if* Briere is shrewd enough to supplement the roster opportunistically. In a lot of ways, that’s the most critical piece. Finding players like Devon Toews and Gus Forsling is what distinguishes the elite teams from the ones who can’t take that step.

It’s either that, or you tear it down this summer and hope and pray that you land one of Hagens or McKenna in the next two drafts while also trying to retain your existing talent (and develop that talent, including Michkov) on a basement dwelling team. Then you need it to actually work like Colorado and not like Buffalo, Ottawa, etc. It’s just not obvious to me how this would be a higher percentage strategy.

It’s entirely possible TK has had his best season. At best I’d say he could have his best year in the next 3. We have good options behind him that he can be traded to improve elsewhere.

You want to add Tkachuk or Martin Necas but not trade TK or 12 OA for them or assets. AND you want to keep TK who will cost over 9 million + the salary of Tkachuck or Necas, keeping in mind Michkov will cost 10+ shortly. 30 mill in those players is not going to work.

 

[wankstifier]

You buy out Atkinson. Konecny and Tippett are the top 2 RW. Are we convinced that Foerster can replace what TK brings? I am not.
Gurianov is not a NHL player and Hathaway should stay on the 4th line.
They are cap strapped but trading TK makes this team worse. Find another way.

Why would they buy out Atkinson in that scenario?