2023-24 Roster Thread #9: Spring time is upon us

[mr figgles]

That’s where I think there’s so much more luck involved. TBH, I think scouting is mostly fake BS. The very top players distinguish themselves by their play and production to the point where you don’t need a scout to tell you. The rest of the field is largely a crap shoot. Amateur “scouting” should be a hobby, not a job.

The only arbitrage plays at the draft are selecting the obviously skilled players who fall because they’re small (Stankoven, Point, Gaudreau, etc etc) and NOT selecting the obviously untalented players because they’re big and “high floor”. Other than that, I’m not convinced a well designed formula wouldn’t be as good or better than a full scouting department over a long enough sample.

With that, IMO, the draft strategy should be 1) to accumulate cheap draft picks (lottery tickets) and play as much as you can, and 2) don’t do dumb dinosaur shit.

There‘s certainly a lot more luck to drafting than people like to admit. We still hear about how the geniuses in Boston stole Pastrnak from the rest of the NHL. Well, the very next year they reached on Zboril, Debrusk, and Senyshyn with Barzal, Connor, and Chabot taken with the next 3 picks. They would have done better just reading TSN.

Jim Nill and the Stars picked right before the Bruins that year and took Gurianov. If they didn‘t luck into Hintz in the 2nd, they would have gotten zero players from that draft. It‘s amazing what a little luck in a handful of drafts did for Nill‘s reputation. If you think the Flyers have blown some first rounders, take a look at Nill‘s record.

2014 - Julius Honka at 14 with Dylan Larkin at 15 and Sanheim at 17

2015 - see above

2016 - Riley Tufte at 25 with Tage Thompson at 26

2018 - Ty Dellandrea at 13 with Farabee at 14

2017 was obviously great for them. Harley in 2019 is starting to look good, and 2021 is looking good too. That‘s not a lot of hits though over that span of time. There is an alternate timeline where they don‘t luck into the Heiskanen pick, draft Tippet, and don‘t take Robertson in the 2nd because they already took a RW.

 

[Random Forest]

There‘s certainly a lot more like to drafting than people like to admit. We still hear about how the geniuses in Boston stole Pastrnak from the rest of the NHL. Well, the very next year they reached on Zboril, Debrusk, and Senyshyn with Barzal, Connor, and Chabot taken with the next 3 picks. They would have done better just reading TSN.

Jim Nill and the Stars picked right before the Bruins that year and took Gurianov. If they didn‘t luck into Hintz in the 2nd, they would have gotten zero players from that draft. It‘s amazing what a little luck in a handful of drafts did for Nill‘s reputation. If you think the Flyers have blown some first rounders, take a look at Nill‘s record.

2014 - Julius Honka at 14 with Dylan Larkin at 15 and Sanheim at 17

2015 - see above

2016 - Riley Tufte at 25 with Tage Thompson at 26

2018 - Ty Dellandrea at 13 with Farabee at 14

2017 was obviously great for them. Harley in 2019 is starting to look good, and 2021 is looking good too. That‘s not a lot of hits though over that span of time. There is an alternate timeline where they don‘t luck into the Heiskanen pick, draft Tippet, and don‘t take Robertson in the 2nd because they already took a RW.

100%.

One could easily argue that it’s mostly luck that determines entire eras of success and failure, with some talent needed to maximize value in trades and manage the cap.

It’s a large part of the reason why I don’t find myself embittered with rage and despondency despite years and years of failure and futility. That said, Fletcher was obviously an incompetent moron, and I don’t think any amount of luck would have changed those results, but I can easily imagine an alternate reality where the Flyers would have been on a very different path had the stars just aligned slightly more favorably in 2015-2018. We’ll see what the Briere years have in store.

 

[thedjpd]

What was shrewd about the Walker trade?

The value of TK is becoming very overrated imo.

Flipping a dump into a 1st, even while leveraging cap space, is exactly what this board has been wanting the management to do.

Even through picking up a dump, not one person on this board expected to get a 1st, in any form, nevermind outright.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Flipping a dump into a 1st, even while leveraging cap space, is exactly what this board has been wanting the management to do.

Even through picking up a dump, not one person on this board expected to get a 1st, in any form, nevermind outright.

As I said what was so shrewd about it?

Walker wasn't a dump either.

 

[Beef Invictus]

100%.

One could easily argue that it’s mostly luck that determines entire eras of success and failure, with some talent needed to maximize value in trades and manage the cap.

It’s a large part of the reason why I don’t find myself embittered with rage and despondency despite years and years of failure and futility. That said, Fletcher was obviously an incompetent moron, and I don’t think any amount of luck would have changed those results, but I can easily imagine an alternate reality where the Flyers would have been on a very different path had the stars just aligned slightly more favorably in 2015-2018. We’ll see what the Briere years have in store.

Yeah, the name of the game is maximizing your chances at being lucky. My problem with Fletcher is that it didn't look like they were making any attempt at that on any front.

You can do that by picking particular players, maximizing your chances to get such players by picking in quantity, and with a development environment that fosters player strengths rather than whatever it is the Flyers do.

After that, then other factors matter. Once you've reaped the benefits of that luck, that's where clever cap management (including some creative and enthusiastic usage of the rules) and excellent coaching puts you over the top. Maximizing efficiency in every way you can, leveraging assets and advantages like money and such. It is incidental that the teams smart enough to do all that happen to also be smart enough to maximize their chances at being lucky.

 

[santapore]

i actually think we should go after walker again. if we need 1 more defenceman. sanhaim-drys , york-risto , seeler- someone(sure we got zamula one too). walker looked so good with us.

 

[thedjpd]

As I said what was so shrewd about it?

Walker wasn't a dump either.

Did any other defensemen retain a 1st? I don’t understand. The fact that he was able to obtain an actual non-conditional first is shrewd, due to the fact that he worked out a deal in such a way to acquire said pick at a market that wasn’t really bearing it. Not sure what’s difficult here.

And Walker was absolutely a dump from LA. Nobody even knew his name. Changing that is revisionist history. It may be luck that he exploded here, but taking advantage of that is the definition of shrewd considering the position the team was in at the time of the trade.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

And Walker was absolutely a dump from LA. Nobody even knew his name. Changing that is revisionist history.

…. no one knew who Sean Walker was now?

Think what you want about the trade, but we don’t have to make things up. He was a solid top 4 support guy in the NHL for multiple years, then took a bit of a downturn. I’m glad he turned it around again and found a new gear.

Hell, more people on this board knew him before he ever played in the NHL than didn’t. He was Mark Friedman’s partner for a decent portion of their time at Bowling Green.

 

[volnoir]

…. no one knew who Sean Walker was now?

Think what you want about the trade, but we don’t have to make things up. He was a solid top 4 support guy in the NHL for multiple years, then took a bit of a downturn. I’m glad he turned it around again and found a new gear.

Hell, more people on this board knew him before he ever played in the NHL than didn’t. He was Mark Friedman’s partner for a decent portion of their time at Bowling Green.

Opinions were certainly varied:

Confirmed Trade: - [CBJ/LAK/PHI] Provorov (30% retain by LAK) to CBJ; Walker, Grans, Petersen, '23 LAK 1st, '24 LAK 2nd, '24 CBJ 2nd to PHI; Connauton, Hodgson to LAK

forums.hfboards.com

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Did any other defensemen retain a 1st? I don’t understand. The fact that he was able to obtain an actual non-conditional first is shrewd, due to the fact that he worked out a deal in such a way to acquire said pick at a market that wasn’t really bearing it. Not sure what’s difficult here.

And Walker was absolutely a dump from LA. Nobody even knew his name. Changing that is revisionist history. It may be luck that he exploded here, but taking advantage of that is the definition of shrewd considering the position the team was in at the time of the trade.

it wasn't shrewd. It was business as usual. He got a 1st because he took a bad contract off their hands. Otherwise, no 1st.

Not a cap dump. He was a solid top 4 dman on the kings. Last season was his 1st back after an injury

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Opinions were certainly varied:

Confirmed Trade: - [CBJ/LAK/PHI] Provorov (30% retain by LAK) to CBJ; Walker, Grans, Petersen, '23 LAK 1st, '24 LAK 2nd, '24 CBJ 2nd to PHI; Connauton, Hodgson to LAK

forums.hfboards.com

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I don’t want to talk badly about the main boards because I stopped reading them many years ago, but I want to be clear that the only thing I have spoken toward was the idea of Walker being an unknown player because it’s indefensible. Hell, Carolina targeted and almost traded for him at one point. When he signed the 4 year deal that’s expiring now, the nerds almost universally loved the value.

I don’t like the way we talk about these reclamation projects at all. It just feels like poison to reasonable discourse. At one point, he was a good NHL Defenseman. Then he wasn’t for a while. Now he is again. None of those steps invalidate any of the others. Career changes are not inherently permanent.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

…. no one knew who Sean Walker was now?

Think what you want about the trade, but we don’t have to make things up. He was a solid top 4 support guy in the NHL for multiple years, then took a bit of a downturn. I’m glad he turned it around again and found a new gear.

Hell, more people on this board knew him before he ever played in the NHL than didn’t. He was Mark Friedman’s partner for a decent portion of their time at Bowling Green.

Walker had a few seasons with LA before he fell out of flavor there of having pretty decent analytical profiles. Now some of those analytic models also had him as like a top ten overall defensemen in the league this year which nobody really could have imagined. So while that was completely not expected & hell I don’t expect that going forward. But as a cap dump there was some past data to hang your hat on in combination of walking into a lineup with a wide open middle pair up for grabs. So I don’t think it was out of the realm to hope for a player that could be useful & turn into a trade chip.

I also think the traditional mindset of thinking on the return is they got a first rounder & that’s that. But when you look more under the hood Colorado ditched a bad contract on them too at $4M that extends into next year & that first rounder a year later which is likely gonna be in the back half of the first round as Colorado is very likely gonna be a contender again next year. Obviously other sports are more willingly on a whole to use historical data to understand odds of success rates as the draft gets outside the top picks & understand those year to year trends aren’t hugely different.

Obviously the NHL as a whole isn’t there yet. The others league know a pick now outside of the top picks is worth more than a similar ranged pick a year from now & operate under that mindset when setting pick valuations.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I don’t think it’s bad trade or anything just for disclaimer but at the same time I do think Colorado got more out of it than the Flyers did. As I think Colorado is operating on a different level of economic understanding than the Flyers who are closer to traditional lines of thinking there.

I don’t think Colorado finds that as enough value given everything else if they’re in that position of the Flyers there.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Dallas absolutely got lucky. The odds of landing all those impact players with that type of pick investment is just an outlier. You give other teams similar pick investment & they’re probably fortunate more times than not just to get half of that return.

I don’t know if they did it by intention or not but the one thing that I will say in regards to Harley, Robertson, & Stankhoven if you’re gonna bet on one thing in those ranges you want to bet on guys that were really productive leading up to their draft years. Regardless of perceived flaws generally those outlier type of picks all have that in common. But even among those three & those factors you still beat the odds by a good bit.

 

[DancingPanther]

Dallas absolutely got lucky. The odds of landing all those impact players with that type of pick investment is just an outlier. You give other teams similar pick investment & they’re probably fortunate more times than not just to get half of that return.

I don’t know if they did it by intention or not but the one thing that I will say in regards to Harley, Robertson, & Stankhoven if you’re gonna bet on one thing in those ranges you want to bet on guys that were really productive leading up to their draft years. Regardless of perceived flaws generally those outlier type of picks all have that in common. But even among those three & those factors you still beat the odds by a good bit.

Sure they got lucky. But they got lucky in the sense that golfers get lucky with a nice kick onto the green. A good swing, a good square hit on the ball, just the right fade or draw, all with the right club. They put themselves in a position to succeed by identifying the right plan. That's all any of us ask of this sorry organization. Every one of us understands every pick in the 20s isn't going to be Giroux or Robertson, but you can at least identify some guys who could get there or close if it all goes well. This stuff isn't hard- we had posters right here gunning for both those players ffs. It's not like draft projections are a big secret - you just need to pay attention and know what you're looking for.

Instead, we get Oliver Bonk.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Walker seemed like he was the glue that held the PK unit together. After he was traded the PK wasn’t the same

 

[Striiker]

I don’t want to talk badly about the main boards

Would you like me to do it for you?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Sure they got lucky. But they got lucky in the sense that golfers get lucky with a nice kick onto the green. A good swing, a good square hit on the ball, just the right fade or draw, all with the right club. They put themselves in a position to succeed by identifying the right plan. That's all any of us ask of this sorry organization. Every one of us understands every pick in the 20s isn't going to be Giroux or Robertson, but you can at least identify some guys who could get there or close if it all goes well. This stuff isn't hard- we had posters right here gunning for both those players ffs. It's not like draft projections are a big secret - you just need to pay attention and know what you're looking for.

Instead, we get Oliver Bonk.

No doubt I think the Flyers should have better process in making their selections. No argument from me there.

I’m just saying Dallas is just insane heater of drafting that will surely be talked about as a model & everybody will fail miserably doing so because it’s just against all odds.

Heiskanen #3
Oettinger #26
Robertson #39

Harley #18

Johnston #23
Stankoven #47

That’s in a five year stretch & they essentially punted the entire 2018 draft. There’s teams that draft only within the top ten for similar stretches & don’t even yield that haul.

I think Carolina for a while now has had the best draft process in the league in terms of not just pick volume but also often betting on more scoring profiles opposed traditional profiles & they don’t have a run like that.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Sure they got lucky. But they got lucky in the sense that golfers get lucky with a nice kick onto the green. A good swing, a good square hit on the ball, just the right fade or draw, all with the right club. They put themselves in a position to succeed by identifying the right plan. That's all any of us ask of this sorry organization. Every one of us understands every pick in the 20s isn't going to be Giroux or Robertson, but you can at least identify some guys who could get there or close if it all goes well. This stuff isn't hard- we had posters right here gunning for both those players ffs. It's not like draft projections are a big secret - you just need to pay attention and know what you're looking for.

Instead, we get Oliver Bonk.

This team will always be fairly horrible as long as internet dorks can collectively do better.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

i actually think we should go after walker again. if we need 1 more defenceman. sanhaim-drys , york-risto , seeler- someone(sure we got zamula one too). walker looked so good with us.

that would def complete the rebuild that never was..

 

[Beef Invictus]

Trading Walker away so we wouldn't be the suckers who give him a bad contract just to follow it up by giving him a bad contract anyway would be in character,

 

[trostol]

Sure they got lucky. But they got lucky in the sense that golfers get lucky with a nice kick onto the green. A good swing, a good square hit on the ball, just the right fade or draw, all with the right club. They put themselves in a position to succeed by identifying the right plan. That's all any of us ask of this sorry organization. Every one of us understands every pick in the 20s isn't going to be Giroux or Robertson, but you can at least identify some guys who could get there or close if it all goes well. This stuff isn't hard- we had posters right here gunning for both those players ffs. It's not like draft projections are a big secret - you just need to pay attention and know what you're looking for.

Instead, we get Oliver Bonk.

The amount of love and high hopes for him and Barkey in other parts of the internet is insane

 

[usahockey22flyers]

I don’t think it’s bad trade or anything just for disclaimer but at the same time I do think Colorado got more out of it than the Flyers did. As I think Colorado is operating on a different level of economic understanding than the Flyers who are closer to traditional lines of thinking there.

I don’t think Colorado finds that as enough value given everything else if they’re in that position of the Flyers there.

I'll take that trade any day of the week for the Flyers. Who knows where Walker ends up, but it probably won't be with the Avs. RyanJo is here for one more year, give me that first all day.

 

[LegionOfGloom]

Trading Walker away so we wouldn't be the suckers who give him a bad contract just to follow it up by giving him a bad contract anyway would be in character,

Sadly, that would still represent a huge step forward for this organization because at least they got an asset before they locked themselves into an unnecessary long term contract.

 

[DancingPanther]

No doubt I think the Flyers should have better process in making their selections. No argument from me there.

I’m just saying Dallas is just insane heater of drafting that will surely be talked about as a model & everybody will fail miserably doing so because it’s just against all odds.

Heiskanen #3
Oettinger #26
Robertson #39

Harley #18

Johnston #23
Stankoven #47

That’s in a five year stretch & they essentially punted the entire 2018 draft. There’s teams that draft only within the top ten for similar stretches & don’t even yield that haul.

I think Carolina for a while now has had the best draft process in the league in terms of not just pick volume but also often betting on more scoring profiles opposed traditional profiles & they don’t have a run like that.

Oh their heater is insane. No doubt. I was just springboarding off that by saying they're at least giving themselves a chance for a heater in the first place.

I've been saying this for years (less frequently lately because I just don't really care at this point)- it drives me nuts when management doesn't put their org in the best, easiest position for success, be that now or in the future. We both know the Flyers don't do that, and this is just another example