2023-24 Roster Thread #9: Spring time is upon us

[BernieParent]

Let's not besmirch his name. During his tenure his advanced stats are +- of 0. Results even players like Ristolainen or Provorov weren't able to match.

Thanks for this valuable information, Mrs. MacDonald. We appreciate you joining your son's prior team message board.

 

[VladDrag]

Nah, these things are not necessarily related. Simply having the chances doesn't mean they are the same as the high quality chances of other teams who finish more. The Flyers are generating chances all within the same general area from start to shot. Goalies aren't forced to move very much. A pass from the corner to the circle, or the circle to the slot doesn't have the same effect as a pass across the ice making the goalie swing from post to post. The Flyers limit the latter.

So just to add to this, looking at all three zones data, the flyers generate most of their chances off the rush. This is accounted for in most xG/ HDCF models up to a point. If there is any event in the NZ or DZ within 3 seconds of a shot, it's considered a rush shot (at least from NST). The ATZ data corroborates this, they lead the lead in rush offense. They are not great at setting up chances after the rush. They are among the bottom in generating high danger passes, and shots off high danger passes, and passes from the center lane.

I also believe they 'inflate' their xG by shooting so many pucks from basically all over. Below is the NHL edge data for shot locations (keep in mind this is all situations, not 5v5). They are in the 96th percentile in all shots for, but as you can see, the areas they exceed are the lighter shaded cells, and they aren't very dangerous.

For example, Toronto has 88 shots from the crease (compared to 81) and 657 from the slot (compared to 546). That's 118 more shots from the slot and crease compared to the Flyers.

 

[Beef Invictus]

So just to add to this, looking at all three zones data, the flyers generate most of their chances off the rush. This is accounted for in most xG/ HDCF models up to a point. If there is any event in the NZ or DZ within 3 seconds of a shot, it's considered a rush shot (at least from NST). The ATZ data corroborates this, they lead the lead in rush offense. They are not great at setting up chances after the rush. They are among the bottom in generating high danger passes, and shots off high danger passes, and passes from the center lane.

I also believe they 'inflate' their xG by shooting so many pucks from basically all over. Below is the NHL edge data for shot locations (keep in mind this is all situations, not 5v5). They are in the 96th percentile in all shots for, but as you can see, the areas they exceed are the lighter shaded cells, and they aren't very dangerous.

For example, Toronto has 88 shots from the crease (compared to 81) and 657 from the slot (compared to 546). That's 118 more shots from the slot and crease compared to the Flyers.

View attachment 849445

I think the team is taking two blows here: Tortorella's on-ice philosophy is one part. However, the Flyers have heavily rejected playmaking as a skill since 2018. Even if they wanted to set up chances with passes from zone to zone....can they? If I had to guess, I'd think that the bottom-six types would see a reduction in effectiveness while the top-6 types would see an increase and these would cancel each other out to some degree. I'd bet that the boost to the top players would be worth it, if they have enough of those players. Unsure they do. There's no Panarin waiting to break loose.

 

[Beef Invictus]

@Hollywood Cannon

Flyers Alumni Celebrate 40th Anniversary | Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers Alumni Association is celebrating a special anniversary in 2024: The 40th anniversary of its foundation.

www.nhl.com

How will you be celebrating?

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Thanks for this valuable information, Mrs. MacDonald. We appreciate you joining your son's prior team message board.

Think of him what you will, but I simply wouldn't put MacDonald in the same tier as Yandle or Johnson.

I mean it remains to be seen just how big of an impact Johnson is going to have when draft day comes around and we might even end up snatching 1C.

However I wouldn't really have my hopes up. At the end of the day Amac brought us Provorov and Nolan Patrick, while Yandle helped us to Gauthier. Yet it doesn't feel like flyers have benefitted from it at all.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Ian Cole was +95 for the entire 2010s. Kevan Miller was +85 in the same timespan.

Beyond that, it's a lot of guys who were once useful and got played well past their expiration date like Girardi and Orpik.

I'll let you decide how to count Kunitz's +121. That was 9th for the decade, right between Hedman and Kucherov.

Think Justin Holl might be a good candidate as well. I remember him being talked about as buyout fodder at the beginning of the season and judging by the games played it seems like he logged quite a few nights on nachos duty as well.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

@Hollywood Cannon

Flyers Alumni Celebrate 40th Anniversary | Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers Alumni Association is celebrating a special anniversary in 2024: The 40th anniversary of its foundation.

www.nhl.com

How will you be celebrating?

stabbing voodoo dolls

 

[Adtar02]

Shocked to come in here and see people not understanding statistics again. Shocked I say. Still not as bad as the hippy.

 

[BernieParent]

Will anyone in this organization ever address their year over year leauge worst powerplay?

Are you aware that Rocky Thompson is the hardest working member of the Flyers organization?

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

Are you aware that Rocky Thompson is the hardest working member of the Flyers organization?

When you take your shirt off, you're announcing to the world that you're hard as nails. Only snowflakes don't get this.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

In hindsight, spending a 4th at the deadline to move up 8 spots in the first round is pretty tidy business from Briere.

Lmao well played

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

@GKJ

They did the tweet.

 

[GKJ]

@GKJ

They did the tweet.

The day of his passing is appropriate though.

 

[Rebels57]

I guess Atkinson & Deslauries could examples of Tortorella giving a lot more leash than deserved to a veteran player. But more so his questionable lineup decisions have been rooted in personal blind spots & biases if anything. Guys like Brink, Frost, & Couturier didn’t get the breaks that other counterparts in Foerster, Tippett, & Laughton did for examples. The first group got sent to the press box when they didn’t play well &/or produce while the other group never really lost their spots in the lineup while going through similar stretches.

Obviously offensive situations Tortorella has no meaningful solutions to that so that’s at play as well in his decision making. But for the most part a lot for the guys he thinks are good defensively the numbers match as well (Hathaway, Seeler, Poehling, Cates, Foerster, etc.). The biggest discrepancy in that regard is Frost. Tortorella likely sees him as an all offensive guy while his defensive numbers this year has been pretty good, even last year he was about break even.

Yep - if personal bias was not a factor, Laughton would have been scratched or had his ice time slashed heavily in many stretches.

Torts has played favorites his entire coaching career. It should come as no surprise he is doing it here once again. You can't teach an old dog new tricks. But you can have a horse kick it in the face.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Nah, these things are not necessarily related. Simply having the chances doesn't mean they are the same as the high quality chances of other teams who finish more. The Flyers are generating chances all within the same general area from start to shot. Goalies aren't forced to move very much. A pass from the corner to the circle, or the circle to the slot doesn't have the same effect as a pass across the ice making the goalie swing from post to post. The Flyers limit the latter.

They are literally 8th in the NHL in high danger chances.

You think they are 8th in the NHL in offensive talent?

You are blaming Torts for something the stats don't remotely support.

 

[Beef Invictus]

They are literally 8th in the NHL in high danger chances.

You think they are 8th in the NHL in offensive talent?

You are blaming Torts for something the stats don't remotely support.

Are you deliberately missing the point, or are you just not reading anything?

I'll ask this again: Is it harder to save a cross-ice one timer, or a shot from the same location where the goalie is set and in position?


Edit: Oh, remind me, who is to blame for the dearth of offensive talent on the roster? Could it be the guy who was GM from 2018 who abhorred playmakers?

 

[Beef Invictus]

So just to add to this, looking at all three zones data, the flyers generate most of their chances off the rush. This is accounted for in most xG/ HDCF models up to a point. If there is any event in the NZ or DZ within 3 seconds of a shot, it's considered a rush shot (at least from NST). The ATZ data corroborates this, they lead the lead in rush offense. They are not great at setting up chances after the rush. They are among the bottom in generating high danger passes, and shots off high danger passes, and passes from the center lane.

I also believe they 'inflate' their xG by shooting so many pucks from basically all over. Below is the NHL edge data for shot locations (keep in mind this is all situations, not 5v5). They are in the 96th percentile in all shots for, but as you can see, the areas they exceed are the lighter shaded cells, and they aren't very dangerous.

For example, Toronto has 88 shots from the crease (compared to 81) and 657 from the slot (compared to 546). That's 118 more shots from the slot and crease compared to the Flyers.

View attachment 849445

@Ghosts Beer read this. My observations are supported.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

@Ghosts Beer read this. My observations are supported.

#crickets....

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Are you deliberately missing the point, or are you just not reading anything?

I'll ask this again: Is it harder to save a cross-ice one timer, or a shot from the same location where the goalie is set and in position?


Edit: Oh, remind me, who is to blame for the dearth of offensive talent on the roster? Could it be the guy who was GM from 2018 who abhorred playmakers?

You are claiming the Flyers suck at high-danger scoring opportunities. and they are 8th in the NHL.

 

[captainpaxil]

I remember when Matt Reed was as close to a sniper as this team had and we were complaining about too many setup guys brink frost Foerster hopefully one of them finds the mojo

Still campaigning for the cliff Fletcher report card line of farabee frost and Foerster

 

[Beef Invictus]

You are claiming the Flyers suck at high-danger scoring opportunities. and they are 8th in the NHL.

No, I am not claiming that. Read.

I am claiming, which is supported, that their lack of high danger passing prior to these chances means they aren't as dangerous as equivalent shot locations from teams where they aren't handcuffed on playmaking.

You keep dodging my question about whether all those chances are equal, or if what happens prior to the shot matters.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

Not sure where to drop this, but I requested this shot in the GDT on Tuesday. Shoutout to @PALE PWNR for providing it. It was comical in real time, but it brought back another fun memory. I was definitely the bird in this instance.

Edit: Sigh. It should say colliding. IYKYK

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[iceman42]

Not sure where to drop this, but I requested this shot in the GDT on Tuesday. Shoutout to @PALE PWNR for providing it. It was comical in real time, but it brought back another fun memory. I was definitely the bird in this instance.

View attachment 850279


Edit: Sigh. It should say colliding. IYKYK

One of the safteys should be playing deeper cant let anyone behind you. Opps wrong sport.

 

[Curufinwe]

@GKJ

They did the tweet.

Great reminder that the Flyers won their Cups during the Nixon and Ford administrations.