2023-24 Roster Thread #9: Spring time is upon us

[Beef Invictus]

There is *plenty* to hate about Tortorella this year, but “vets first philosophy” is not one of them.

There’s been plenty of ice time for young players (Foerster and York, in particular), and there’s been plenty of veterans who have found themselves outside (Couturier, Atkinson, etc). Infuriating roster decisions? Yeah, but not out of systematic preference for vets.

I think he does have a slight lean towards veterans, but it's not obsessive or crippling or out of line with the average NHL coach. More than anything he has a preference of player archetype. Play the style he prefers and he'll find use for you regardless of age. Great example of that is last year's trio of treatments among Cates, Hayes, and Frost.

Atkinson...I have no idea what's going on there. I'll call him the outlier.

 

[mja]

There is *plenty* to hate about Tortorella this year, but “vets first philosophy” is not one of them.

There’s been plenty of ice time for young players (Foerster and York, in particular), and there’s been plenty of veterans who have found themselves outside (Couturier, Atkinson, etc). Infuriating roster decisions? Yeah, but not out of systematic preference for vets.

Torts is absolutely willing to give younger guys a shot at a role, but he has to like your game, and for better and worse he has a type. Management, meanwhile, most certainly does have an infuriating preference for veterany over young.

 

[ponder719]

You didn't have your Booty-O's? You seem to need the Power of Positivity again.

Booty-Os make sure you ain't booty.

The Flyers are booty.

Not enough cereal in the world to fix that.

 

[captainpaxil]

Atkinson is a torts guy. Coaches all have guys they trust and veteran coaches have guys they've worked with previous that know what the erxpectation are. The problem is he's cooked and making way too much money.him and stall were good players at one time and know how to be good pros. They just gotta learn to hang em up .

 

[usahockey22flyers]

Any coach would love Cam Atkinson to be fair. No ego, great in the locker room, takes coaching well, beloved by his teammates and coaches. Hardworking warrior who skated hard for 10+ years now. It’s a shame we didn’t have him in his prime - he earned all of his money.

That being said, he’s absolutely cooked and Torts knows it.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

So who's worse 2014 Hall Gill or 2024 Erik Johnson?

 

[Flyerfan4life]

So who's worse 2014 Hall Gill or 2024 Erik Johnson?

Andy McD enters chat...

 

[Nizzle]

Andy McD enters chat...

Alternate Andy is one of my all time favourite nicknames for a player

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Alternate Andy is one of my all time favourite nicknames for a player

didnt we used to call him Andy Andy ? haahah

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Andy McD enters chat...

Let's not besmirch his name. During his tenure his advanced stats are +- of 0. Results even players like Ristolainen or Provorov weren't able to match.

 

[Curufinwe]

I guess because of the very bad SV%, there are a few Flyers with comically large gaps between their xGA/60 and actual GA/60.

Johnson: 2.51 - 4.68 = -2.17

Cates: 2.03 - 3.38 = -1.35

Sanheim: 2.61 - 3.72 = -1.11

Couturier: 2.73 - 3.82 = -1.09

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[BrindamoursNose]

 

[Flyerfan4life]

#maximumpain....

 

[Ghosts Beer]

7th in the NHL in xGF%.

BUT

.887 team save percentage. Tied for last in the league.

.968 team PDO. Last in the league.

.849 save percentage in the 32 games since Hart's leave of absence. Comically abysmal.

.781 save percentage over their 8-game losing streak. I have no words.

When your goaltending collapses, your team collapses.

 

[VladDrag]

7th in the NHL in xGF%.

BUT

.887 team save percentage. Tied for last in the league.

.968 team PDO. Last in the league.

.849 save percentage in the 32 games since Hart's leave of absence. Comically abysmal.

.781 save percentage over their 8-game losing streak. I have no words.

When your goaltending collapses, your team collapses.

Their ability to translate their expected into actual has also been awful during this stretch.

Just to add to this, over the last 8 games at 5v5, they are top 4 or better in CF%, FF%, SF%. They are 6th in xGF, 5th in SCF, 2nd in HDCF.... But they are shooting at 6.19% at 5v5, putting them at 28th. It's not just been goaltending, it's been scoring as well.

This is the variance in any dataset. They have had stretches of hockey where they win 7 or 8, 6 of 7 etc. Just as they are not as good as winning 7 of 8, they are not as bad as losing 8 straight. It sucks it's at the end of the season, but it just is what it is.

All in all, this team has performed like a top 10-15 team in the NHL. The probably deserve to make the playoffs as a 6-8 seed, but it doesn't always work that way.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Their ability to translate their expected into actual has also been awful during this stretch.

Just to add to this, over the last 8 games at 5v5, they are top 4 or better in CF%, FF%, SF%. They are 6th in xGF, 5th in SCF, 2nd in HDCF.... But they are shooting at 6.19% at 5v5, putting them at 28th. It's not just been goaltending, it's been scoring as well.

This is the variance in any dataset. They have had stretches of hockey where they win 7 or 8, 6 of 7 etc. Just as they are not as good as winning 7 of 8, they are not as bad as losing 8 straight. It sucks it's at the end of the season, but it just is what it is.

All in all, this team has performed like a top 10-15 team in the NHL. The probably deserve to make the playoffs as a 6-8 seed, but it doesn't always work that way.

I agree with all of this.

 

[Beef Invictus]

7th in the NHL in xGF%.

BUT

.887 team save percentage. Tied for last in the league.

.968 team PDO. Last in the league.

.849 save percentage in the 32 games since Hart's leave of absence. Comically abysmal.

.781 save percentage over their 8-game losing streak. I have no words.

When your goaltending collapses, your team collapses.

A gulf between xG and actual goals has long been a hallmark of Tortorella teams. His restriction on east-west playmaking makes life easy for opposing goalies. The problem is magnified by the PPs.

 

[bleachdrinker]

In hindsight, spending a 4th at the deadline to move up 8 spots in the first round is pretty tidy business from Briere.

 

[Beef Invictus]

In hindsight, spending a 4th at the deadline to move up 8 spots in the first round is pretty tidy business from Briere.

Now this is positive thinking

 

[freakydallas13]

Will anyone in this organization ever address their year over year leauge worst powerplay?

 

[Flyerfan4life]

7th in the NHL in xGF%.

BUT

.887 team save percentage. Tied for last in the league.

.968 team PDO. Last in the league.

.849 save percentage in the 32 games since Hart's leave of absence. Comically abysmal.

.781 save percentage over their 8-game losing streak. I have no words.

When your goaltending collapses, your team collapses.

raise the banner...

dont worry im sure they will win a couple of these last meaningless games...

then sit on their shitpile and beak off about how great the rebuild is going

 

[JojoTheWhale]

All in all, this team has performed like a top 10-15 team in the NHL. The probably deserve to make the playoffs as a 6-8 seed, but it doesn't always work that way.

I get why you chose that range, but this is one of things I personally struggle to label. By Moneypuck's xGF model, 9th through 16th in the league is between 50 and 52% at 5v5. 17th through 22nd are in the 49.x range. The Flyers to my eye are basically exactly what their metrics say they are. They show extremely well in everything based in Fenwick, but fall off a cliff as soon as shooting talent comes into play. The PK has been excellent, but that doesn't zero out the PP debacles. And of course this is with high end injury luck.

To me, 11th and 22nd are not materially different enough to be confident in ranking. Draw a line after contenders, and then the entire rest of the league is slop until you get to San Jose, Chicago, Anaheim, etc. Unless you've got reason to believe things may turn around like a 5v5 47 GF% Lightning, you're just picking your favorite flavor of slop. I won't argue if you prefer peanut butter. But I don't buy that it's clearly better than vanilla.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

 

[FLYguy3911]

Maybe they should have seen what Seeler looked like away from Sean Walker before handing out the extension?

 

[Ghosts Beer]

A gulf between xG and actual goals has long been a hallmark of Tortorella teams. His restriction on east-west playmaking makes life easy for opposing goalies. The problem is magnified by the PPs.

Well then something is wrong with the xG stat, because if it's an "expected goal" then by definition it shouldn't be making life easy for opposing goalies, right?