2023-24 Roster Thread #9: Spring time is upon us

[VladDrag]

I get why you chose that range, but this is one of things I personally struggle to label. By Moneypuck's xGF model, 9th through 16th in the league is between 50 and 52% at 5v5. 17th through 22nd are in the 49.x range. The Flyers to my eye are basically exactly what their metrics say they are. They show extremely well in everything based in Fenwick, but fall off a cliff as soon as shooting talent comes into play. The PK has been excellent, but that doesn't zero out the PP debacles. And of course this is with high end injury luck.

To me, 11th and 22nd are not materially different enough to be confident in ranking. Draw a line after contenders, and then the entire rest of the league is slop until you get to San Jose, Chicago, Anaheim, etc. Unless you've got reason to believe things may turn around like a 5v5 47 GF% Lightning, you're just picking your favorite flavor of slop. I won't argue if you prefer peanut butter. But I don't buy that it's clearly better than vanilla.

I had a professor who used to say in science, there are groupers and there are splitters -- people who like to group everything together, and people who like to nit-pick the slight differences. Both are needed to make progress.

In that regard, I get where you're coming from, and agree with you in the fact that there's nothing materially different from the 50,000 ft. view from the 11-22nd team. There's no participation trophy that makes you better next season, and it doesn't really matter if you're 1st round fodder, picking 16th, or if your just missing the playoffs picking 12th.

Without diving into the reasons, I chose that 10-15th for particular reasons. I'm not going to dive into them because I don't have the time to go thru it. And those reasons are weighted based on my personal opinions.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Just some thoughts about Briere/Jones tenure.

A pretty shitty first year, when the noise/culture bullshit is ignored. From an asset management POV…

The Cutter/Drysdale I will happily die on the hill that they gave a 5th OA pick away for a bag of beans, when they publicly thanked Murray for his contribution to the trade.

Johnson was a piss poor signing.

In a “rebuild” year, they moved one guy in Walker.

Honestly, I don’t see how this is any better than Fletcher.

They wasted a year. For what exactly?

 

[dragonoffrost]

7th in the NHL in xGF%.

BUT

.887 team save percentage. Tied for last in the league.

.968 team PDO. Last in the league.

.849 save percentage in the 32 games since Hart's leave of absence. Comically abysmal.

.781 save percentage over their 8-game losing streak. I have no words.

When your goaltending collapses, your team collapses.

Someone didn't see the Multiple defensive breakdowns in front of the goalies last night that lead to 9 goals against. That will torpedo a teams save percentage. Too many HDCA can lead to an inflated save pct.

Plus that includes the disaster that was Peterson. Who should never have seen NHL ice but the front office didn't want to get another option.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Well then something is wrong with the xG stat, because if it's an "expected goal" then by definition it shouldn't be making life easy for opposing goalies, right?

Well, of course there are things wrong with it! No one metric is perfect, which is why we always point out how vital context is. For example, xG doesn't factor in what's happened in advance of a shot. A shot taken against a goalie who is set and prepared against a stationary shooter isn't differentiated from a shot following a cross-ice pass to a sprinting player where the goalie is trying to track/anticipate and get into position. The team doesn't do a whole lot to get goalies moving side to side, which is in line with Tortorella's rants about the dangers of cross-ice passing. So xG alone doesn't tell the story; xG compared to actual goals begins to tell you something due to the gap; and the added context of Tortorella's stated philosophies and how they actually play on ice fills in the "why."

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Someone didn't see the Multiple defensive breakdowns in front of the goalies last night that lead to 9 goals against. That will torpedo a teams save percentage. Too many HDCA can lead to an inflated save pct.

Plus that includes the disaster that was Peterson. Who should never have seen NHL ice but the front office didn't want to get another option.

They've given up the least number of HDCA in the entire NHL over their 8-game losing streak, which includes last night's debacle.

 

[Curufinwe]

Will anyone in this organization ever address their year over year leauge worst powerplay?

It's only been three years in a row. Give it a couple more.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Well, of course there are things wrong with it! No one metric is perfect, which is why we always point out how vital context is. For example, xG doesn't factor in what's happened in advance of a shot. A shot taken against a goalie who is set and prepared against a stationary shooter isn't differentiated from a shot following a cross-ice pass to a sprinting player where the goalie is trying to track/anticipate and get into position. The team doesn't do a whole lot to get goalies moving side to side, which is in line with Tortorella's rants about the dangers of cross-ice passing. So xG alone doesn't tell the story; xG compared to actual goals begins to tell you something due to the gap; and the added context of Tortorella's stated philosophies and how they actually play on ice fills in the "why."

Expected goals compared to actual goals tells you about the finishing quality of the team.

You're saying Torts doesn't put them in position to score, yet that's exactly what xG intends to measure.

So by saying Torts' teams are consistently high in xG, you are implicitly acknowledging that Torts' teams are consistently putting players in position to score.

So you contradict your own argument.

 

[dragonoffrost]

They've given up the least number of HDCA in the entire NHL over their 8-game losing streak, which includes last night's debacle.

I want to know what a goalie is supposed to do when there are guys alone where all those G's are close to the net. This is a failing of the defensive structure.

You can probably find a lot of heat maps that look like this against the Flyers.

Blocking shots is great but when the chances you don't block are from that close your goalie is screwed.

 

[Striiker]

The guy who refuses to accept any stats more complicated than +/- is now trying to use them to polish Tort's turd.

Completely shameless.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

The Flyers are 8th in the NHL this season in high-danger scoring chances:

1. Edmonton 896
2. Toronto 809
3. Colorado 792
4. Pittsburgh 786
5. Nashville 775
6. Carolina 762
7. Dallas 756
8. Philly 746

Now compare the offensive talent levels of those teams.

The Flyers aren't anywhere close to as offensively talented, yet they still are creating high danger chances with the best of them.

And I'm supposed to buy the argument that Torts is SABOTAGING goals because of his system???

It's literally the opposite. The Flyers create high danger chances despite lacking offensive talent. They just can't finish them.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

View attachment 849375

I want to know what a goalie is supposed to do when there are guys alone where all those G's are close to the net. This is a failing of the defensive structure.

You can probably find a lot of heat maps that look like this against the Flyers.

Blocking shots is great but when the chances you don't block are from that close your goalie is screwed.

You said their horrific save % over the last 8 games is because they are giving up too many HDCA. When in actuality they are THE BEST IN THE ENTIRE NHL in that span in limiting HDCA.

You were completely wrong. The game last night was not emblematic of the entire 8 game stretch, even if you want to move the goalposts now and try to make it all about the one game last night.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Expected goals compared to actual goals tells you about the finishing quality of the team.

You're saying Torts doesn't put them in position to score, yet that's exactly what xG intends to measure.

So by saying Torts' teams are consistently high in xG, you are implicitly acknowledging that Torts' teams are consistently putting players in position to score.

So you contradict your own argument.

No, I am not. I explained how this works to you already. All chances aren't equal, even if they come from the same location. I know that you understand that what happens leading up to a chance matters. Whether the goalie is square and ready or not matters. Whether someone is going straight at the goalie and shooting, or shooting quickly from that spot after a pass with the goalie in motion matters.

Back when DH was arguing that Tortorella is actually an offense-first coach, somehow, I dug back through his NY days. Most NHL teams tend to finish with an actual goal number somewhere close to their xG number. Tortorella teams are often top 10ish in xG, and somewhere near bottom 10 in actual goals. That's a big disparity, and it isn't a fluke. It's common and it followed him across teams. That's where it becomes important to understand what a metric takes into account and what it doesn't to figure out why things aren't working. Tortorella teams take high quality chances. But they are tending to take those chances against goalies who are well-prepared for them. The metric is designed to account for the average team, not an outlier. Tortorella's insistence against "dangerous" passing across the ice is an outlier and it produces outlier results.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The Flyers are 8th in the NHL this season in high-danger scoring chances:

1. Edmonton 896
2. Toronto 809
3. Colorado 792
4. Pittsburgh 786
5. Nashville 775
6. Carolina 762
7. Dallas 756
8. Philly 746

Now compare the offensive talent levels of those teams.

The Flyers aren't anywhere close to as offensively talented, yet they still are creating high danger chances with the best of them.

And I'm supposed to buy the argument that Torts is SABOTAGING goals because of his system???

It's literally the opposite. The Flyers create high danger chances despite lacking offensive talent. They just can't finish them.

Oh. Maybe you don't understand.


Question: Do you think that what happens immediately before a chance matters to the success of that chance?

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

The guy who refuses to accept any stats more complicated than +/- is now trying to use them to polish Tort's turd.

Completely shameless.

Out of curiosity I wonder who would be league worst player with at least 5 year tenure in recent history who would have absurdly high +/-. Has to be some plug who would benefit not only from playing on good teams, but most likely have those extra +- that come from playing on penalty kill plus maybe empty netters help too?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Out of curiosity I wonder who would be league worst player with at least 5 year tenure in recent history who would have absurdly high +/-. Has to be some plug who would benefit not only from playing on good teams, but most likely have those extra +- that come from playing on penalty kill plus maybe empty netters help too?

I bet a good starting point is Gretzky linemates. Or teammates, since he could pull long shifts.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Brad Marchand is the current player ranked highest on the career +/- list, with Bergeron two slots behind and Chara three slots ahead. I feel like that's not a coincidence.

 

[Strawberry Fields]

Out of curiosity I wonder who would be league worst player with at least 5 year tenure in recent history who would have absurdly high +/-. Has to be some plug who would benefit not only from playing on good teams, but most likely have those extra +- that come from playing on penalty kill plus maybe empty netters help too?

Jeff Schultz was +50 in 2010

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Oh. Maybe you don't understand.


Question: Do you think that what happens immediately before a chance matters to the success of that chance?

Well, yes, of course. I imagine what happens before a chance is extremely important to generating high danger chances, of which the Flyers are 8th in the entire NHL despite not being an offensively talented team.

They generate chances at a rate competitive with the most offensively talented teams in the NHL.

To me that's a glowing endorsement of Torts' coaching, especially if he's done that much of his career. He hasn't had the most talented teams, but he does a damn good job of putting them in a position to succeed.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Well, yes, of course. I imagine what happens before a chance is extremely important to generating high danger chances, of which the Flyers are 8th in the entire NHL despite not being an offensively talented team.

They generate chances at a rate competitive with the most offensively talented teams in the NHL.

To me that's a glowing endorsement of Torts' coaching, especially if he's done that much of his career. He hasn't had the most talented teams, but he does a damn good job of putting them in a position to succeed.

Nah, these things are not necessarily related. Simply having the chances doesn't mean they are the same as the high quality chances of other teams who finish more. The Flyers are generating chances all within the same general area from start to shot. Goalies aren't forced to move very much. A pass from the corner to the circle, or the circle to the slot doesn't have the same effect as a pass across the ice making the goalie swing from post to post. The Flyers limit the latter.

 

[thedjpd]

Someone didn't see the Multiple defensive breakdowns in front of the goalies last night that lead to 9 goals against. That will torpedo a teams save percentage. Too many HDCA can lead to an inflated save pct.

Plus that includes the disaster that was Peterson. Who should never have seen NHL ice but the front office didn't want to get another option.

These takes are why folks get frustrated.

Multiple defensive breakdowns happen to every team, every game. No team ever plays a game where there are none.

The Flyers are one of the better teams at this. Not worse. The only difference in the last few games is that the Flyers are worse than they have been all season at this relatively, and their goaltending is also worse than it has been all season relatively. There are many debates and reasons why this may be the case; but from a numbers point of view, the stats are still quite positive.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Wow lmao

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

These takes are why folks get frustrated.

Multiple defensive breakdowns happen to every team, every game. No team ever plays a game where there are none.

The Flyers are one of the better teams at this. Not worse. The only difference in the last few games is that the Flyers are worse than they have been all season at this relatively, and their goaltending is also worse than it has been all season relatively. There are many debates and reasons why this may be the case; but from a numbers point of view, the stats are still quite positive.

Montreal had 19 high danger chances last night. Nineteen against one of the worst teams in the league. You have no chance playing defense like that.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

A lot of the disconnect in how you slice up the Flyers' later season defensive metrics is a handful of games. If you're trying to get some approximation of recent 5v5 play, a lot of this will hinge on how many of the following games you include: March 14th vs TOR, March 16th vs BOS, and April 6th vs CBJ. Feb 17th vs NJD was putrid too.

 

[Ironmanrulez]

or even the Germans have any words for this level of delusional arrogance.

narcissistic personality disorder​

Its a culture thing for the flyers!

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Out of curiosity I wonder who would be league worst player with at least 5 year tenure in recent history who would have absurdly high +/-. Has to be some plug who would benefit not only from playing on good teams, but most likely have those extra +- that come from playing on penalty kill plus maybe empty netters help too?

Ian Cole was +95 for the entire 2010s. Kevan Miller was +85 in the same timespan.

Beyond that, it's a lot of guys who were once useful and got played well past their expiration date like Girardi and Orpik.

I'll let you decide how to count Kunitz's +121. That was 9th for the decade, right between Hedman and Kucherov.