2023-24 Roster Thread #8: A Cam York State of Mind

[Kelmitchell2]

Read this morning that Seeler is looking for Schenn type money. I understand he wants to set his family up, but oof. Hope he gets the bag somewhere else. Seems like a good dude, just overpricing himself for his play style.

Jones and torts will push hard to get him that money

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I was thinking in terms of long-term assets, they were both short-term patches in a "win now" offseason. And both are long gone (though Braun did garner a 3rd, recouping one of the picks spent on him).

Risto this season, CF 50.56%, CFrel +0.23, xGF 55.13%, xGFrel +7.24, HDCF% 56.28%, HDCFrel +6.92.
He's playing 3rd pair minutes along with Seeler and Zamula.
Great performance, but in a somewhat sheltered role. Want to push him, both as a bridge to younger D-men (Bonk, whomever they draft this summer), and to up his trade value next summer.

If they trade Walker and Seeler, I'd like to see Risto move up to the top 4 with York, Drysdale and Sanheim, with Zamula, Ginning and Attard on the 3rd pair to finish the season - time to see if Ginning and Attard have a NHL future, even as a #6/#7, given their age.

The coaches have been smart enough not to do that so far. Once you do then the results will be what many expect them to be. Not good. He is a sunk cost so you leave him be where he is currently.

Is it possible Flyers management have already decided they do not see Attard/Ginning as part of any Flyers NHL future?

 

[Don Nachbaur 26]

Any link for that as curious to read.

NHL Rumors: Philadelphia Flyers, and the San Jose Sharks . Apparently DiMarco reported it first and Yardbarker is just summarizing.

"Seeler’s camp could be looking for something similar to Luke Schenn‘s three-year, $2.75 million per. One executive thinks $2 million is a little high. The Flyers may start around $2 million."

 

[deadhead]

Tortorellla/Shaw have been very good at picking who pairs with Risto and when. So far that has hidden his warts. Putting him in the top four would be rough for whomever gets iced with him. Maybe Sanheim can handle that but the that makes York/Drysdale a pairing. Is that what the Flyers would do?

Think it's the opposite, he's spent a lot of time with Zamula since he returned, and has been the steady partner, Zamula has been a surprise on the PP, but he's still mistake prone at 5x5.

Top pairings:
York - Sanheim 621 minutes CF 48.45%, xGF 50.18
Seeler - Walker 497 minutes CF 52.76%, xGF 53.97%
Zamula - Risto 193 minutes CF 51.53%, xGF 51.68%

Zamula - Walker 102 minutes CF 56.01%, xGF 48.37%
Zamula - Belpedio 90 minutes CF 48.87%, xGF 39.94%
Zamula - Sanheim 55 minutes CCF 53.80%, xGF 62.47

Staal - Risto 76 minutes, CF 45.07%, xGF 64.06%
Seeler - Risto 68 minutes, CF 50.28%, xGF 48.98%
York - Risto 46 minutes CF 55.2,%, xGF 63.74%

Sanheim - Drysdale 76 minutes CF 49.28%, xGF 45.28%
York - Walker 87 minutes CF 54.65%, xGF 41.34%

 

[renberg]

Think it's the opposite, he's spent a lot of time with Zamula since he returned, and has been the steady partner, Zamula has been a surprise on the PP, but he's still mistake prone at 5x5.

Top pairings:
York - Sanheim 621 minutes CF 48.45%, xGF 50.18
Seeler - Walker 497 minutes CF 52.76%, xGF 53.97%
Zamula - Risto 193 minutes CF 51.53%, xGF 51.68%

Zamula - Walker 102 minutes CF 56.01%, xGF 48.37%
Zamula - Belpedio 90 minutes CF 48.87%, xGF 39.94%
Zamula - Sanheim 55 minutes CCF 53.80%, xGF 62.47

Staal - Risto 76 minutes, CF 45.07%, xGF 64.06%
Seeler - Risto 68 minutes, CF 50.28%, xGF 48.98%
York - Risto 46 minutes CF 55.2,%, xGF 63.74%

Sanheim - Drysdale 76 minutes CF 49.28%, xGF 45.28%
York - Walker 87 minutes CF 54.65%, xGF 41.34%

The numbers that mean something right now are those since the acquisition of Drysdale. It looks as though the club wants to see Drysdale paired with Sanheim. That sends a ripple down through the defensive pairings. Unless the FO goes off of the rails and offers Walker and Seeler contracts that surpass their true values, there are going to be some major changes on the back end for the rest of the season. All of the stats up until the making of these moves mean nothing.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Taking on Grans and Peterson was part of the costs to get the job done.

Grans is on an ELC. He's not a cap dump. They actively pursued him.

NHL Rumors: Philadelphia Flyers, and the San Jose Sharks . Apparently DiMarco reported it first and Yardbarker is just summarizing.

"Seeler’s camp could be looking for something similar to Luke Schenn‘s three-year, $2.75 million per. One executive thinks $2 million is a little high. The Flyers may start around $2 million."

Sounds legit.

 

[Kelmitchell2]

If they re-sign seeler at 2.5 per then the entire front office deserves to be fired, that's just outrageous, let someone else foolish enough to give him that deal give it to him, trade him and move on

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

By all accounts LA really soured on Grans in his D+3 season there. He saw a noticeable reduction in his usage in the AHL there from his D+2 season.

Right or wrong but from their end it seemed more like ejecting from a prospect while they still had some semblance of trade value left.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

If they re-sign seeler at 2.5 per then the entire front office deserves to be fired, that's just outrageous, let someone else foolish enough to give him that deal give it to him, trade him and move on

I can see 2.5 on a 2 year deal. Now the question becomes does the GM bend over and give the 3rd year? How hard will the coach push for it and will he override the GM?

 

[trostol]

their gonna re-sign both Walker and Seeler aren't they

 

[Deadpool8812]

Extending both Seeler and Walker would be a complete failure for this organization in terms of asset management.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Read this morning that Seeler is looking for Schenn type money. I understand he wants to set his family up, but oof. Hope he gets the bag somewhere else. Seems like a good dude, just overpricing himself for his play style.

Nothing wrong with setting the ceiling high for his ask.

 

[Magua]

The whole thing with that deal was to ditch Provorov and pick up a first round pick. Taking on Grans and Peterson was part of the costs to get the job done. Grans was a RHD who had had a decent +1 season; size and potential. He’ll probably end up a third pairing guy; hopefully better than Hagg or Ginning. It’s the cost of doing business.

These are contradictory statements. You say Grans was a cap dump and the cost of business, and then say he'll probably end up a 3rd pair guy (which seems optimistic) and point to his potential and D+1. He can't be both a negative and positive asset, as you've phrased. Cal Petersen was a mega cap dump -- one of the worst short-term contracts in the league. Grans was a 21 year old recent 35th overall pick on an ELC, playing in the AHL for a team well short of 50 contracts. The Kings didn't have to move him.

Sean Walker has overperformed, but we knew he'd be a solid 3rd pair guy at least, perhaps flippable for a ~3rd. It was also mainly a salary match trade. LA cleared $5.625MM last summer in this move to use in free agency.

They didn't need to take on Petersen to acquire a 1st for Provorov -- that's crazy. If you parse it out, a late 2023 1st + 2025 2nd + Walker (filler) seems pretty ballpark for a GM bullish on 2 years of Provorov. At that point, as I said last summer, a 2024 2nd + Grans for Petersen felt pretty damn light for how hard it is to move salary, let alone $5MM x 2 for a sub-NHLer. Occam's razor is the Flyers valued Grans comparable to his draft status. Every move they've made for a big RHD says that's a priority.

 

[DancingPanther]

Smart teams sell high. Dumb teams buy high. We all know what the Flyers are going to do here

 

[Beef Invictus]

Reminder that there is no rebuild

 

[Deadpool8812]

Nothing wrong with setting the ceiling high for his ask.

It is if Briere gives it to him

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Walker also had a health issues before coming to Philly that derailed his recent seasons. Also Kings payed a hefty price to clear out salary just to sign Dubois, much like we did with Fisto situation.

 

[deadhead]

These are contradictory statements. You say Grans was a cap dump and the cost of business, and then say he'll probably end up a 3rd pair guy (which seems optimistic) and point to his potential and D+1. He can't be both a negative and positive asset, as you've phrased. Cal Petersen was a mega cap dump -- one of the worst short-term contracts in the league. Grans was a 21 year old recent 35th overall pick on an ELC, playing in the AHL for a team well short of 50 contracts. The Kings didn't have to move him.

Sean Walker has overperformed, but we knew he'd be a solid 3rd pair guy at least, perhaps flippable for a ~3rd. It was also mainly a salary match trade. LA cleared $5.625MM last summer in this move to use in free agency.

They didn't need to take on Petersen to acquire a 1st for Provorov -- that's crazy. If you parse it out, a late 2023 1st + 2025 2nd + Walker (filler) seems pretty ballpark for a GM bullish on 2 years of Provorov. At that point, as I said last summer, a 2024 2nd + Grans for Petersen felt pretty damn light for how hard it is to move salary, let alone $5MM x 2 for a sub-NHLer. Occam's razor is the Flyers valued Grans comparable to his draft status. Every move they've made for a big RHD says that's a priority.

Why would they value Grans that high when nothing he's done since he was drafted says he could be traded for a 2nd rd pick? His D+1, at 18, in the SHL was pretty bad, but you could write it off to being too young. D+2 in the AHL, was decently offensively, 56g 6-12 18 at ES, but nothing that would get you excited. Then at 20, he regressed, 59g 2-5 7. Raw tools but limited production.

Appleyard had his doubts about him when he was drafted:

Scouting Report: Helge Grans - Smaht Scouting

Photo Credit: Malmö Redhawks Player Profile D.O.B – May 10, 2002Nationality – SwedenDraft Eligibility – 2020Height – 6’3Weight – 192 lbsPosition – DefenseHandedness – Right Grans’ Style Of Play Grans has a great physical package and is also a righty. That is a combination of attributes that NHL...

smahtscouting.com

Wheeler in February 2023, had him ranked 6th among Kings' prospects.

"The appeal of Grans, in the past, has been anchored in the legitimacy of his individual tools more than the sum of his parts. He’s a 6-foot-3, right-shot defenceman who is both mobile and talented. He’s comfortable with the puck. He has great hands for his size. He’s a superb passer on outlets and through offensive-zone lanes. And he’s at his best when he’s playing an aggressive style and taking risks to make things happen. Grans has the potential to be a second-pairing defenseman with two-way value. There’s a balance to be struck with his mistakes and some of that just comes with continued reps. I hope they encourage him to play a highly-involved game, because that’s when his tools really shine."

In other words, Grans was a high risk project 3 years after he was drafted.

If they knew Hart was going to be suspended, then picking up Peterson as a cap dump makes more sense, you get assets and a veteran goalie you try to rehabilitate b/c you may need him as a backup. CBJ got $2M off the first year of Provorov's contract, and gave a 1st and 2nd to Philly.
LA made up the retention by sending Walker's $2.65M to Philly. So Walker was a salary dump that allowed Briere to avoid retaining on Provorov.
LA gave a 2nd as well. The value was less b/c they retained on Provorov to facilitate the deal with CBJ.

 

[renberg]

These are contradictory statements. You say Grans was a cap dump and the cost of business, and then say he'll probably end up a 3rd pair guy (which seems optimistic) and point to his potential and D+1. He can't be both a negative and positive asset, as you've phrased. Cal Petersen was a mega cap dump -- one of the worst short-term contracts in the league. Grans was a 21 year old recent 35th overall pick on an ELC, playing in the AHL for a team well short of 50 contracts. The Kings didn't have to move him.

Sean Walker has overperformed, but we knew he'd be a solid 3rd pair guy at least, perhaps flippable for a ~3rd. It was also mainly a salary match trade. LA cleared $5.625MM last summer in this move to use in free agency.

They didn't need to take on Petersen to acquire a 1st for Provorov -- that's crazy. If you parse it out, a late 2023 1st + 2025 2nd + Walker (filler) seems pretty ballpark for a GM bullish on 2 years of Provorov. At that point, as I said last summer, a 2024 2nd + Grans for Petersen felt pretty damn light for how hard it is to move salary, let alone $5MM x 2 for a sub-NHLer. Occam's razor is the Flyers valued Grans comparable to his draft status. Every move they've made for a big RHD says that's a priority.

As I said, taking on Peterson and Grans were components in the overall deal necessary to get it done. I don’t believe that Grans was a cap dump and never specifically indicated that he was. Peterson was. Grans was a tall RHD who has had one good post draft season and one that was not so hot. The Flyers, desperate at that time for RHD took him on. He had been a 2nd round pick for the Kings. He may be a third pair player down the road. When the club finally gets someone at LHV that can coach their defensemen, he could have value equivalent to the club’s investment in him.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I’m sure as hell not jumping into the larger discussion, but it’s worth remembering that the 2nds involved were future picks. They have less value than immediate ones.

The idea that taking on a guy on an ELC was some necessary evil is well beyond the pale. There’s a whole rainbow of reasonable opinions of the degree to which the Flyers saw him as a positive asset, but the alternative framing is multiple major steps lower than shaky ground.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I completely forgot Grans existed

 

[Flyerfan4life]

If they re-sign seeler at 2.5 per then the entire front office deserves to be fired, that's just outrageous, let someone else foolish enough to give him that deal give it to him, trade him and move on

#rebuild..

 

[deadhead]

Grans was a throw-in. Maybe a 4th rd value at that point.

Walker was the steal, he had showed signs of recovering from his knee injury, but LA needed the cap room to sign Gavrikov, $5.85M, two year deal, $3+2.65 = $5.65 so a wash the first year, $0.85 second year with the cap rising by $4M. Since they had Doughty and Roy (and a couple top RHD prospects in Spence & Clarke), Walker was expendable.

 

[trostol]

Walker still is expendable

 

[deadhead]

How the Florida Panthers built a Defensive Juggernaut for Cheap

Using active and aggressive defensemen, who wield a variety of modern defensive concepts, who are insulated by talented possession-driven forwards

pocketcbj.substack.com

Interesting read on the Panthers' system.
Seems the Flyers are incorporating some of this with their D-men, read toward the end, D-men and the forecheck.