2023-24 Roster Thread #8: A Cam York State of Mind

[Flyer lurker]

I could see that Tampa 2026 1st being kind of a nice asset, assuming it’s unprotected.

Their prospect pool in general sucks, but Isaac Howard and Ethan Gauthier could be intriguing.

TBL philosophy was to trade 1's/picks for player with 1.5 years left and not pure rentals.
See
Goodrow
Coleman
Hagel
Jeannot

Maybe they get desperate, but I doubt it.

 

[BillDineen]

 

[Flyerfan4life]

so godam true..

#Buyers

 

[VladDrag]

Jesper Bratt’s 8 years x $7.875MM is probably ballpark. It wouldn’t surprise me if Konecny touches $8MM AAV — extra UFA year, contract beginning 2 years later.

Fwiw, his value is 8.5M/year according to Dom L.

 

[Magua]

Fwiw, his value is 8.5M/year according to Dom L.

I worded it a little poorly. I don’t think it will be $8MM necessarily. I think it will be low-mid 8s. It will just be in the 8s. But a contract like Bratt’s is the absolute baseline. The Flyers aren’t being serious if they aren’t starting there.

Bratt (7.75), Fiala (7.88), Hintz (8.45), Dubois (8.5), Horvat (8.5), Larkin (8.7), Meier (8.8) — my guess is each camp comes with each end as a comparable. Blah blah blah settle in the middle.

We both know Konecny’s scoring is suppressed by the PP shenanigans — he’s probably a true talent 85-90 point guy. But it is suppressed, if he ends up with 70ish points. Couturier took a discount too, pre-injury, if we want to do the intra-team comparable, and my hunch is Konecny very much wants to stay.

 

[Curufinwe]

am i the only one concerned that this supposedly big number for TK is gonna be north of 9 a year..like I got a bad feeling its gonna be 9.5...10 a year and that doesn't make me overly comfortable

My prediction is 8 x $9.2m

I worded it a little poorly. I don’t think it will be $8MM necessarily. I think it will be low-mid 8s. It will just be in the 8s. But a contract like Bratt’s is the absolute baseline. The Flyers aren’t being serious if they aren’t starting there.

Worth mentioning that Bratt and the Devils had really testy negotiations over a long period while the Flyers seem ready do whatever it takes to lock up the current face of the "New Era of Orange".

 

[Beef Invictus]

The Flyers have six guys tied for the team lead in PP scoring with 6 points each.

Zamula has done it in by far the least amount of time, but he appears to have been removed from the PP in favor of Laughton, who has 1 PPP all season.

I think it is beautiful that the Flyers give grinders so many glorious chances to prove they can score too

 

[Curufinwe]

Laughton's career PPP by year

Scott Laughton Stats And News

Get all the latest stats, news, videos, and more on Scott Laughton.

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0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
9
1

 

[Magua]

Worth mentioning that Bratt and the Devils had really testy negotiations over a long period while the Flyers seem ready do whatever it takes to lock up the current face of the "New Era of Orange".

I feel like both parties being agreeable plays just as much in the Flyers hands. Really, I don't see what Konecny's agent has to argue that he's not firmly in that group I listed, as opposed to $9MM+ recently with Barzal, Aho, M. Tkachuk.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I feel like both parties being agreeable plays just as much in the Flyers hands. Really, I don't see what Konecny's agent has to argue that he's not firmly in that group I listed, as opposed to $9MM+ recently with Barzal, Aho, M. Tkachuk.

Flyers always overpay for the intangibles players bring to the locker room. Just a flat out bad mistake to re-sign him at the end of the day. What are you really gaining for another 8 year ext for a good not great player?

 

[wankstifier]

I think there are still scenarios where re-signing Konecny could make sense. Depends on teams giving up something of value for Laughton and Ristolainen and the Flyers not committing to any more depth players like Seeler.

 

[Random Forest]

“This team desperately needs elite talent!!”



“Why are we re-signing Konecny???”

 

[VladDrag]

“This team desperately needs elite talent!!”



“Why are we re-signing Konecny???”

The problem with the timeline with his team is a real one. Their top line center is 30, and while he looks good now, he's not the player he was 4 years ago. They don't have a replacement in the system at all. They lack legit top of the lineup D-man as well. Hopefully they are in a position (and get lucky) this draft to get one.

Given that scenario, it’s not like, given the right deal, a trade involving TK doesn’t make sense. If you can move him and get back a young player with legit 1C or 1D upside, it makes sense… Now, I think that trade probably would have been made last off-season, where if that player was available, the acquiring team would’ve had two years of TK, not just one.

But I don't want to trade him just to trade him, either. I've said as much dating back to last season. I'm all for trading basically anyone on this roster if it makes the team better. I think the only person I wouldn't trade is Michkov.

 

[wankstifier]

Have to consider who’s making the trade, too. The Flyers’ approach to selecting multiple first round picks could lower the probability of producing fair or surplus value in a trade of elite or near elite talent. A couple of Bonks for Konecny would be a pretty shitty return.

 

[VladDrag]

Have to consider who’s making the trade, too. The Flyers’ approach to selecting multiple first round picks could lower the probability of producing fair or surplus value in a trade of elite or near elite talent. A couple of Bonks for Konecny would be a pretty shitty return.

A trade that might make sense as well is a the draft, an underperforming team with a pick from 5-8. Make TK the main part of that trade…

No idea what the board looks like, if there is a player in that are, if there is a team etc., but it’s a scenario that makes sense IMO.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

A trade that might make sense as well is a the draft, an underperforming team with a pick from 5-8. Make TK the main part of that trade…

No idea what the board looks like, if there is a player in that are, if there is a team etc., but it’s a scenario that makes sense IMO.

Buffalo is that team - they were sixth from bottom when I suggested it last night, or whenever. They aren't going to stay that high if they acquire Konecny now, but if we could swing that at the draft we are getting close to the point that Demidov becomes a MUCH more realistic option. He's not a center (probably), but the idea of pairing him with Michkov for 15 years? F*** my life, that's a serious game-changer. Seriously. And if not Demidov, Catton would be more doable.

 

[BigToe]

 

[FLYguy3911]

I mean there is not much wrong with re-signing Konecny. It’s just they fall in love with every spare part and never know when to sell high on other pieces.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The problem with the timeline with his team is a real one. Their top line center is 30, and while he looks good now, he's not the player he was 4 years ago. They don't have a replacement in the system at all. They lack legit top of the lineup D-man as well. Hopefully they are in a position (and get lucky) this draft to get one.

Given that scenario, it’s not like, given the right deal, a trade involving TK doesn’t make sense. If you can move him and get back a young player with legit 1C or 1D upside, it makes sense… Now, I think that trade probably would have been made last off-season, where if that player was available, the acquiring team would’ve had two years of TK, not just one.

But I don't want to trade him just to trade him, either. I've said as much dating back to last season. I'm all for trading basically anyone on this roster if it makes the team better. I think the only person I wouldn't trade is Michkov.

2011-13 timeline mismatch all over again.

I think it's admirable that they stick to their principles.

 

[MrGuyPerson]

Buffalo is that team - they were sixth from bottom when I suggested it last night, or whenever. They aren't going to stay that high if they acquire Konecny now, but if we could swing that at the draft we are getting close to the point that Demidov becomes a MUCH more realistic option. He's not a center (probably), but the idea of pairing him with Michkov for 15 years? F*** my life, that's a serious game-changer. Seriously. And if not Demidov, Catton would be more doable.

I think Minnesota would also be a likely partner to move up with at the draft. Their roster is very much so structured to win now and not waste Kaprizov's prime. Ottawa is another team who wants to start winning now. Other possible options assuming the order stays similar Seattle, Calgary, and possibly Arizona

 

[Magua]

I said last deadline I wouldn't trade Konecny before I knew if they won a lottery pick to get this show on the road. If Leonard or Reinbacher or Dvorsky was the crown jewel right now, I'd be in tears. I'd think keeping Konecny would be an unforgivable mistake. But they did win a lottery pick-type in unusual circumstances.

They're signing TK. We all know it. We all know TK is the most joyous part of this team. I've just made peace with the have our cake and eat it too quasi-rebuild. They clearly need another Michkov-level forward talent, ideally at center, and they'll rely on flukiness to acquire it. Do I think they could use another top pair caliber defender? Sure (instead of pretending Drysdale is a future #1, it would probably be best to just treat him as a possible core top 4 piece). Do I think that is drastically dwarfed by the need for a top line forward? Yes. At least they can't still pretend that's Gauthier.

 

[BritainStix]

I said last deadline I wouldn't trade Konecny before I knew if they won a lottery pick to get this show on the road. If Leonard or Reinbacher or Dvorsky was the crown jewel right now, I'd be in tears. I'd think keeping Konecny would be an unforgivable mistake. But they did win a lottery pick-type in unusual circumstances.

They're signing TK. We all know it. We all know TK is the most joyous part of this team. I've just made peace with the have our cake and eat it too quasi-rebuild. They clearly need another Michkov-level forward talent, ideally at center, and they'll rely on flukiness to acquire it. Do I think they could use another top pair caliber defender? Sure (instead of pretending Drysdale is a future #1, it would probably be best to just treat him as a possible core top 4 piece). Do I think that is drastically dwarfed by the need for a top line forward? Yes. At least they can't still pretend that's Gauthier.

With 2 firsts this year, and hopefully some moves to aquire at least one more, they might at least have some wiggle room to be a bit more risky with their picks in the hope of finding that high end talent.

If Michov is as good as people project, and we get at least 2 hits in the next two drafts, we might actually have a roster that can make waves. Especially with the resurgence in Farabee. The core looks OK.

??? - (Michov) - Konecny
Farabee - Frost - Tippet
Foerster - Couturier - Brink

York - Drysdale
Sanheim - ???
Zamula - (Bonk)

Ersson
Kosolov

I've certainly seen worse teams.

 

[Magua]

With 2 firsts this year, and hopefully some moves to aquire at least one more, they might at least have some wiggle room to be a bit more risky with their picks

Personally, I don't subscribe to "boom-bust" being a thing. If you think a player's flaws -- let's say skating, in particular straight line -- are overblown or fixable, then why are you envisioning the bust? Pick the best player with the best chance to hit his ceiling in volume and let the rest sort itself out. If you chase the guys with gaping holes in their games in the high rounds, you usually end up with nothing. Risk absolutely varies, but chasing it isn't smart either. Chase the explanation for why it's LESS of a risk: underappreciated scoring impacts, class relative age, size bias, etc.

Ironically, some of the absolute best late 1st-2nd hits like Robert Thomas and Jason Robertson......weren't on the flashy risky end of the spectrum. I thought Frost was a safe-ish pick his draft year! If anything, it was a matter of taking not sexy, but complete, players who shattered their ceilings.

 

[BritainStix]

Personally, I don't subscribe to "boom-bust" being a thing. If you think a player's flaws -- let's say skating, in particular straight line -- are overblown or fixable, then why are you envisioning the bust? Pick the best player with the best chance to hit his ceiling in volume and let the rest sort itself out. If you chase the guys with gaping holes in their games in the high rounds, you usually end up with nothing. Risk absolutely varies, but chasing it isn't smart either. Chase the explanation for why it's LESS of a risk: underappreciated scoring impacts, class relative age, size bias, etc.

Ironically, some of the absolute best late 1st-2nd hits like Robert Thomas and Jason Robertson......weren't on the flashy risky end of the spectrum. I thought Frost was a safe-ish pick his draft year! If anything, it was a matter of taking not sexy, but complete, players who shattered their ceilings.

I'm all on board for the Appleyard approach. Pick the players who statistically stand out regardless of size. Not picking players who have a slightly higher floor, but no room to grow.

 

[Appleyard]

I said last deadline I wouldn't trade Konecny before I knew if they won a lottery pick to get this show on the road. If Leonard or Reinbacher or Dvorsky was the crown jewel right now, I'd be in tears. I'd think keeping Konecny would be an unforgivable mistake. But they did win a lottery pick-type in unusual circumstances.

They're signing TK. We all know it. We all know TK is the most joyous part of this team. I've just made peace with the have our cake and eat it too quasi-rebuild. They clearly need another Michkov-level forward talent, ideally at center, and they'll rely on flukiness to acquire it. Do I think they could use another top pair caliber defender? Sure (instead of pretending Drysdale is a future #1, it would probably be best to just treat him as a possible core top 4 piece). Do I think that is drastically dwarfed by the need for a top line forward? Yes. At least they can't still pretend that's Gauthier.

I am starting to come to terms with it being most likely the Flyers pick ~13-17 and ~28-30 in this draft...

and if that is the case? A combo of probably:

13-17: Greentree, Artamonov, Chernyshov, Yakemchuk, Jiricek

28-30: Hage, Misa, Kiviharju

is about best can hope for in terms of upside at those spots.

This draft has 4 very good C's who are good bets to be 1Cs in it but all will probably be gone by pick ~10. Maybe someone like Hage/Misa is the fluke way to a 1C... would not be crazy if either turned into one... even if maybe only a ~25% chance.