2023-24 Roster Thread #8: A Cam York State of Mind

[BernieParent]

I am dead certain -- no offense, @deadhead -- that the Flyers' likeliest way to try to fill the 1C need is a big splashy trade for a past-his-prime big name. Lower risk than trying to draft and develop one over years and it comes with that satisfying dopamine hit of being in the news. The Old Guard appreciate trades as active ways to improve the team right away.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

I am starting to come to terms with it being most likely the Flyers pick ~13-17 and ~28-30 in this draft...

and if that is the case? A combo of probably:

13-17: Greentree, Artamonov, Chernyshov, Yakemchuk, Jiricek

28-30: Hage, Misa, Kiviharju

is about best can hope for in terms of upside at those spots.

This draft has 4 very good C's who are good bets to be 1Cs in it but all will probably be gone by pick ~10. Maybe someone like Hage/Misa is the fluke way to a 1C... would not be crazy if either turned into one... even if maybe only a ~25% chance.

so 3 years away from being 3 years away..

 

[flyersnorth]

I was at the HHOF last week, at had to chuckle at the Flyers section of the "Franchise" showcase.

This is the guy they chose to represent the Flyers' franchise?

 

[Matti Mich]

I was at the HHOF last week, at had to chuckle at the Flyers section of the "Franchise" showcase.

This is the guy they chose to represent the Flyers' franchise?

I wonder how they were able to pick that picture of Ellis when there are so many to choose from

 

[MrGuyPerson]

Personally, I don't subscribe to "boom-bust" being a thing. If you think a player's flaws -- let's say skating, in particular straight line -- are overblown or fixable, then why are you envisioning the bust? Pick the best player with the best chance to hit his ceiling in volume and let the rest sort itself out. If you chase the guys with gaping holes in their games in the high rounds, you usually end up with nothing. Risk absolutely varies, but chasing it isn't smart either. Chase the explanation for why it's LESS of a risk: underappreciated scoring impacts, class relative age, size bias, etc.

Ironically, some of the absolute best late 1st-2nd hits like Robert Thomas and Jason Robertson......weren't on the flashy risky end of the spectrum. I thought Frost was a safe-ish pick his draft year! If anything, it was a matter of taking not sexy, but complete, players who shattered their ceilings.

They are pretty good and not seen as risky, but to counter that Kucherov, Sebastian aho, Kuznetsov, Pastrnak, and Debrincat are examples of players in the same range considered very risky and I would take 4 of 5 over both less risky players listed. Risk may increase the chance of bust, but it also increases the chance of boom

 

[usahockey22flyers]

I really want to believe the Flyers will subtract some higher picks in some trades this month, but will acquire 2 (two!!!) first rounders. You wanna talk about having ammo - that would do it.

I hope Danny gets creative.

 

[BritainStix]

I hope Danny gets creative.

Onlyfans for picks?

 

[GKJ]

Did not anticipate this

 

[Magua]

Kucherov, Sebastian aho, Kuznetsov, Pastrnak, and Debrincat are examples of players in the same range considered very risky

Risk is in the eye of the beholder, and you also can't just cite every steal as very risky.

Being a Russian was considered a risk, hence some fallers ~15 years ago. Is that actually a risk or a pretend one? Kucherov set the all-time u18 record with 21 points in 7 games. DeBrincat clearly is 5'7, which is very outlier (I'd agree with this one), but his scoring profile was insane. Pastrnak had 24 points in 36 games to lead his team in the Allsvenskan at age 17; Elias Pettersson had 9 points in 25 games at the same age. Aho's draft year was completely normal good as one of the youngest players in the class -- it stacks up with probably all but 10 players in his class -- and he's point/game in Liiga the next year.

You know who was a risk? Jay O'Brien was a risk, taking a player from prep and projecting. I didn't even think he was particularly boom-y, but people have conniption fits over that one. On the other hand, Sanheim was a risk as a rookie WHL defender with a late surge.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Did not anticipate this

I think I'm not surprised. He doesn't finish, but him getting beaten or picked on basically doesn't happen either.

 

[AndHeMissedTheNet]

Did not anticipate this

was he at all hyped for his defense coming into the NHL? from what i can remember, the Flyers basically just wrote his scouting report as "BIG BODY, GREAT SHOT"

 

[BritainStix]

Did not anticipate this

This is the reason that he's never scratched, even when his offensive game goes badly missing. He's absolutely top tier defensively, even if he does take stupid penalties at times. At worst, he's going to be a terrific third line shutdown forward, hopefully his shot comes through and he starts picking up points.

 

[Magua]

was he at all hyped for his defense coming into the NHL? from what i can remember, the Flyers basically just wrote his scouting report as "BIG BODY, GREAT SHOT"

I'm not really sure who hypes up defensive wing play, besides a few rare cases, at lower levels. We'll classify that under "Fetish."

But everyone here made a concerted effort to say he has a great shot, but his true standout skills are his puck poise, boards work, body/stick control. It does make sense that he's utilized that in defensive ways, even as an iffy skater. I'll bet on the offense eventually coming though.

 

[VladDrag]

This is the reason that he's never scratched, even when his offensive game goes badly missing. He's absolutely top tier defensively, even if he does take stupid penalties at times. At worst, he's going to be a terrific third line shutdown forward, hopefully his shot comes through and he starts picking up points.

Please explain this then…

 

[Magua]

Please explain this then…

A deeper dive into the numbers is clarifying:

 

[Appleyard]

Risk is in the eye of the beholder, and you also can't just cite every steal as very risky.

Being a Russian was considered a risk, hence some fallers ~15 years ago. Is that actually a risk or a pretend one? Kucherov set the all-time u18 record with 21 points in 7 games. DeBrincat clearly is 5'7, which is very outlier (I'd agree with this one), but his scoring profile was insane. Pastrnak had 24 points in 36 games to lead his team in the Allsvenskan at age 17; Elias Pettersson had 9 points in 25 games at the same age. Aho's draft year was completely normal good as one of the youngest players in the class -- it stacks up with probably all but 10 players in his class -- and he's point/game in Liiga the next year.

You know who was a risk? Jay O'Brien was a risk, taking a player from prep and projecting. I didn't even think he was particularly boom-y, but people have conniption fits over that one. On the other hand, Sanheim was a risk as a rookie WHL defender with a late surge.

Yeh... those guys were really never risks.

They had higher chances of success than anyone taken around them.

And tbh? Once get into the 3rd round there is no such things as a risk. Because most guys fail and unless swing for fences have no chance of getting a top 6/4 guy.

Point, Kaprizov, Gallagher, Bratt, Gaudreau, Maccelli, Guentzel... all fell due to "risk" (I.E. size, being top six or bust etc)... but the odds of success were there. There was a "decent" chance that they would be top 6 guys. They were all the opposite of risks really!


Flyers actually took some interesting "flyers" at times on guys who had an outside chance of outkicking their coverage in a major way.

Brink, Marody, McClennon, Attard, Friedman... but then also a lot of guys basically guaranteed to fail.

 

[Appleyard]

Looking at the Flyers 2005-2023 CHL and USHL picks, according to my sample WITHOUT hindsight, just pretending it is pre-draft right now? Grouping guys into ~5 categories bases on their stats? This is pretty much the grouping... albeit could divide into even more groups, and did it pretty quickly!:

High upside pick without much risk:
Claude Giroux
Sean Couturier
Ivan Provorov
Nolan Patrick
Joel Farabee
Cam York
Bobby Brink

A decent chance can be top 6/4... and likely to be NHLer:
Steve Downie
Marc-Andre Bourdon
Mark Friedman
Cooper Marody
Travis Konecny
Pascal Laberge
Ronnie Attard (but tbf this is a craaazy small sample of players with his profile, so hard to say)
Tyson Foerster
Cutter Gauthier

Maybe they will be a 3rd liner/bottom pairing guy with outside top 6/4 upside:
Andreas Nodl
Kevin Marshall
Luca Sbisa
Brendan Ranford
Nick Cousins
Scott Laughton
Sam Morin
Nicolas Aube-Kubel
Travis Sanheim
Tanner Laczynski
Wade Allison
Matthew Strome
Isaac Ratcliffe
Morgan Frost
Egor Serdyuk
Zayde Wisdom
Connor McClennon
Ethan Samson
Devin Kaplan
Cole Knuble
Oliver Bonk
Denver Barkey

Longshot to be NHLer, and if they do make it is bottom of line-up (5-10% chance of NHL):
Oskars Bartulis
Mario Kempe
Dave Labrecque
Eric Wellwood
Michael Chaput
Tye McGinn
Marcel Noebels
Colin Suellentrop
Taylor Leier
Tyrell Goulbourne
Radel Fazleev
Samuel Dove-McFalls
Carson Twarynski
Connor Bunnaman
Anthony Salinitri
Wyatt Kalynuk
Maxim Sushko
John St. Ivany
Wyatte Wylie
Gavin Hain
Mason Millman
Elliott Desnoyers
Ty Murchison
Alexis Gendron
Carter Sotheran

Why is this guy being drafted? (pigs can fly, maybe 1/100 to make it):
Josh Beaulieu
John Flatters
Matt Clackson
Garrett Klotz
Zac Rinaldo
Michael Parks
Derek Mathers
David Drake
Hunter McDonald
Matteo Mann

Far too many draft picks on guys in the bottom two groups tbh... guys who barring a miracle have basically no chance of being anything more than a ~35 point forward or a very limited bottom pairing guy.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

Looking at the Flyers 2005-2023 CHL and USHL picks, according to my sample WITHOUT hindsight, just pretending it is pre-draft right now? Grouping guys into ~5 categories bases on their stats? This is pretty much the grouping... albeit could divide into even more groups, and did it pretty quickly!:

High upside pick without much risk:
Claude Giroux
Sean Couturier
Ivan Provorov
Nolan Patrick
Joel Farabee
Cam York
Bobby Brink

A decent chance can be top 6/4... and likely to be NHLer:
Steve Downie
Marc-Andre Bourdon
Mark Friedman
Cooper Marody
Travis Konecny
Pascal Laberge
Ronnie Attard (but tbf this is a craaazy small sample of players with his profile, so hard to say)
Tyson Foerster
Cutter Gauthier

Maybe they will be a 3rd liner/bottom pairing guy with outside top 6/4 upside:
Andreas Nodl
Kevin Marshall
Luca Sbisa
Brendan Ranford
Nick Cousins
Scott Laughton
Sam Morin
Nicolas Aube-Kubel
Travis Sanheim
Tanner Laczynski
Wade Allison
Matthew Strome
Isaac Ratcliffe
Morgan Frost
Egor Serdyuk
Zayde Wisdom
Connor McClennon
Ethan Samson
Devin Kaplan
Cole Knuble
Oliver Bonk
Denver Barkey

Longshot to be NHLer, and if they do make it is bottom of line-up (5-10% chance of NHL):
Oskars Bartulis
Mario Kempe
Dave Labrecque
Eric Wellwood
Michael Chaput
Tye McGinn
Marcel Noebels
Colin Suellentrop
Taylor Leier
Tyrell Goulbourne
Radel Fazleev
Samuel Dove-McFalls
Carson Twarynski
Connor Bunnaman
Anthony Salinitri
Wyatt Kalynuk
Maxim Sushko
John St. Ivany
Wyatte Wylie
Gavin Hain
Mason Millman
Elliott Desnoyers
Ty Murchison
Alexis Gendron
Carter Sotheran

Why is this guy being drafted? (pigs can fly, maybe 1/100 to make it):
Josh Beaulieu
John Flatters
Matt Clackson
Garrett Klotz
Zac Rinaldo
Michael Parks
Derek Mathers
David Drake
Hunter McDonald
Matteo Mann

Far too many draft picks on guys in the bottom two groups tbh... guys who barring a miracle have basically no chance of being anything more than a ~35 point forward or a very limited bottom pairing guy.

Would you put Ghost in the middle category?

 

[Appleyard]

Would you put Ghost in the middle category?

Impossible to say without analysing NCAA stats for +1 D tbh aha. But my guess is yeh, he would likely be there.

 

[BigToe]

 

[Magua]

 

[trostol]

3 1sts and a prospect

 

[FlyerNutter]

Almost as if he’s soon to be playing for a new contract

 

[Random Forest]

Wouldn’t surprise me if Konecny gets a letter immediately after he signs his contract. That actually does move the needle a couple hundred thousand dollars in AAV in contract negotiations.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

All the money. Give it to him.