2023-24 Roster Thread #5: Where the boos aren't limited to Halloween

[Adtar02]

I wonder if one issue with Frost is he doesn't fit what they're looking for in a center.

In Torts defensive scheme the center is used like a 3rd D-man, that doesn't play to Frost's strengths (or Hayes).
In this case, size, speed and defense is more important than playmaking ability for a center.

It also allows you to play undersized wings who are offense first, like Atkinson, TK, Brink, Michkov, Barkey and Ciernak. Rizzo would also fit that mold, if he gets moved to wing. The wings have fewer defensive responsibilities.

It makes it easier to draft, top two way centers are almost impossible to find, but undersized, skill wings are far more common.

Coach needs to build a scheme around the players he has. Not build a team around a coach. If he can’t figure out how to do that he needs to be fired asap.

 

[Random Forest]

I want to say we are on the same page for the most part so don’t take this as an attack on your position, more of an in-depth conversation.

I would first say that projecting how good a young skater can do is looking at just how well he performs and then trying to maximize that effectiveness. So, in some regard I think player development is about extrapolating what a player could theoretically be based on past experiences.

Next, only the best in the world are ppg players who are consistent. That’s why they are the best in the world. They are able to consistently generate scoring chances that turn into points. What standard are we holding him to?

Finally, I think Forst has a consistency to his game. Even when he’s not scoring he’s doing positive things on the ice. I am not attacking you with this comment, but I struggle to trust people who don’t see how good Frost is in those aspects. Even the two games he played, you would pick out 5-10 smart plays that helped the club. Even Torts said ‘he didn’t play bad, but just not good.’


What specifically about his profile? That’s a genuine question, because I am not sure specifically what you mean here. And it goes back to a previous question, what do you mean by primary weapon?

There’s no hard definition here — by “primary weapon” I’m just talking about the kind of guy whose output isn’t really contingent on very much. Or the kind of guy whose absence in the lineup is felt acutely. Obviously every player needs opportunity to be successful, but you don’t doubt that, for example, Konecny is going to be productive regardless of the situation he’s in. You don’t doubt that we’re a significantly inferior team without Konecny. The Flyers are only marginally worse with Frost out of the lineup. It’s not a back breaker.

Re: Frost’s skill set, I’m referring to his tendency to go invisible for shifts and games at a time. His tendency to get worked over by opposing players. Again, like Sam Gagner, nobody doubts the skill level, but some players just lack the ability to impose their will on the game. Frost is one, from what we’ve seen of him so far in the NHL. I think you know what I’m talking about here. Maybe Frost develops this with more opportunity, but I don’t think it’s really something that comes with a better situation. I’m not saying he can’t be valuable — I’m not even saying he can’t be a very productive player in the NHL — but he’s not a huge loss to the lineup at this point because there is something missing from his game.

 

[VladDrag]

There’s no hard definition here — by “primary weapon” I’m just talking about the kind of guy whose output isn’t really contingent on very much. Or the kind of guy whose absence in the lineup is felt acutely. Obviously every player needs opportunity to be successful, but you don’t doubt that, for example, Konecny is going to be productive regardless of the situation he’s in. You don’t doubt that we’re a significantly inferior team without Konecny. The Flyers are only marginally worse with Frost out of the lineup. It’s not a back breaker.

So I don’t think a comparison of Frost vs TK is fair. TK is the legit, top-line forward on this team. He’s so clearly the best player and one of the best RWers in the NHL, but he’s not given good offensive players. He plays with centers like Laughton and Cates over the last two seasons. I have been on the record that he could be a 90 point winger with a quality center. So if you want Frost to be that player, I would say that’s the 99th percentile outcome. It is not likely to happen.

Re: Frost’s skill set, I’m referring to his tendency to go invisible for shifts and games at a time. His tendency to get worked over by opposing players. Again, like Sam Gagner, nobody doubts the skill level, but some players just lack the ability to impose their will on the game. Frost is one, from what we’ve seen of him so far in the NHL. I think you know what I’m talking about here. Maybe Frost develops this with more opportunity, but I don’t think it’s really something that comes with a better situation. I’m not saying he can’t be valuable — I’m not even saying he can’t be a very productive player in the NHL — but he’s not a huge loss to the lineup at this point because there is something missing from his game.

I dont see a player who goes truly invisible for games at a times.. I just don’t. I do see a guy who is inconsistent offensively at times…but there are a lot of factors. Teammates play a HUGE part effectiveness. Please take my word in that, I am a huge stat guy and one thing I have realized is teammates are super important in effectiveness, both in helping and hindering. last season I clamored he should play with TK and Farabee, instead of Cates. When TK and Frost played together last season, their metrics are top line players (150 mins - so small sample but not nothing, like xGF/60 as good as McDavid and Draisaitl. When he’s been given opportunity he’s shown the ability to perform.

Also Frost has only played like 150 games in the NHL. It’s not that many. Casey Mittlesttadt played 150 games before the start of last season (60 point campaign), MacKinnon took 300 games before he became a 100 point player, for every Gagner type of player there’s a MacKinnon… to be clear I don’t think Frost is a 90 point player, my point is that it takes time to get used to playing in the NHL, even for some of the best.

EDIT -That xGF number isn’t as close as I thought (3.27 vs 3.76), but still that 3.27 is very good.

 

[deadhead]

Coach needs to build a scheme around the players he has. Not build a team around a coach. If he can’t figure out how to do that he needs to be fired asap.

Uh, they're rebuilding. That means they're building around the team they envision three years from now, not the players they have now.

So if they want to play a certain style, they want to see which players they have on the current roster which fits what they want to do down the road, not coach to players who'll be history.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Uh, they're rebuilding. That means they're building around the team they envision three years from now, not the players they have now.

So if they want to play a certain style, they want to see which players they have on the current roster which fits what they want to do down the road, not coach to players who'll be history.

This is the dumbest possible way to build a hockey team. It will only fail. Especially since we know what style they're chasing, and it's trash.

 

[Tripod]

Nothing says 3 years from now like 36 year old Staal along with Seeler, Deslaurier, Hathaway.

It's just nuts that the only people scratched have been rookies and a 24 year old top scorer from last year. What a new era.

 

[deadhead]

Nothing says 3 years from now like 36 year old Staal along with Seeler, Deslaurier, Hathaway.

It's just nuts that the only people scratched have been rookies and a 24 year old top scorer from last year. What a new era.

None of those players will be here in three years.

 

[Beef Invictus]

None of those players will be here in three years.

Seems weird to give priority to them, huh?

 

[Tripod]

None of those players will be here in three years.

Exactly.

Then why are they playing over rookies who are playing well and proven #2 C's?

 

[Tripod]

Seems weird to give priority to them, huh?

It's just shitty to know that once again, they are not doing their best to maximize players abilities. And that in a few years, instead of it being a Deslauriers or Staal, it will be some other useless plugs. Or it will be someone else playing higher in the lineup than they should.

 

[deadhead]

Exactly.

Then why are they playing over rookies who are playing well and proven #2 C's?

The 4th line has nothing to do with Frost, they're not using him in that role and have no interest in seeing him in that role.

Right now, it's about shuffling 10 players in 9 slots, figuring who fits with whom, and probably in some cases showcasing players they may trade later this season or next summer.

I think the biggest issue right now is figuring out which RWs can handle a switch to the left side.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The 4th line has nothing to do with Frost, they're not using him in that role and have no interest in seeing him in that role.

Right now, it's about shuffling 10 players in 9 slots, figuring who fits with whom, and probably in some cases showcasing players they may trade later this season or next summer.

I think the biggest issue right now is figuring out which RWs can handle a switch to the left side.

Devotion to roles is inherently limiting and a horrible way to try to build a roster. It's a major reason why the team is bad.

 

[tnfrs]

id rather see our prospects play for literally any other team over becoming a career 4th line / AHL guy. I dont wanna see even late round picks become 4th line guys. Nobody wants to be on the line with the least offense that receives the most violence, thats never a players goal. even in this new NHL im hearing about 4th line hockey is still bang em up beat em up hockey and I think about which of our Phantoms guys I want on the ice playing against a Nic Deslauriers every night, because every team has one or a version of one, theres not a single guy we have in the system that can hit or bang with Nic Deslauriers or the Foligno types

 

[Curufinwe]

I’m just glad we’re getting the same victory laps we get every year with the early season boom.

They can hang another "5th place at Halloween" Banner!

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[Ghosts Beer]

id rather see our prospects play for literally any other team over becoming a career 4th line / AHL guy. I dont wanna see even late round picks become 4th line guys. Nobody wants to be on the line with the least offense that receives the most violence, thats never a players goal. even in this new NHL im hearing about 4th line hockey is still bang em up beat em up hockey and I think about which of our Phantoms guys I want on the ice playing against a Nic Deslauriers every night, because every team has one or a version of one, theres not a single guy we have in the system that can hit or bang with Nic Deslauriers or the Foligno types

4th line is yeah, we aren't going to score, but we'll spend a shift wearing you out while our scorers rest.

 

[Rich Nixon]

I can't believe people are still arguing about Hextall and NAK in 2023

#itsallonethread

 

[deadhead]

I can see Avon and Desnoyers in a 4th line role down the road once they fill out, more of a speed/energy role than a thumper, similar to Poehling.

There's more than one way to skin a cat, the 4th line doesn't have to be 3 muckers, but it does need players who are high energy each shift, who can contribute on the PK (so your best offensive players can play more minutes in offensive situations), and have high enough IQs to be solid defensively and not take stupid penalties.

 

[tnfrs]

4th line is yeah, we aren't going to score, but we'll spend a shift wearing you out while our scorers rest.

ya I think it also helps Torts and the coaching staff focus on the young guys more, not only on the bench and in games but in practice too. Theres less he needs to tell vets, especially ones that have been brought in for specific strengths already, it lets the coaches key in on the guys that need the most guidance. Torts said he wanted the kids up here even if they werent playing every game he wanted to be able to coach them himself. The 4th line is entirely replaceable at any point in time that we're ready to compete, but right now they gotta take the shifts the kids arent built for

 

[Matti Mich]

PHD line still sitting in the top10 lines in the league by xGF%, despite not scoring a goal.
Though you guys would like this.

 

[tnfrs]

I can see Avon and Desnoyers in a 4th line role down the road once they fill out, more of a speed/energy role than a thumper, similar to Poehling.

There's more than one way to skin a cat, the 4th line doesn't have to be 3 muckers, but it does need players who are high energy each shift, who can contribute on the PK (so your best offensive players can play more minutes in offensive situations), and have high enough IQs to be solid defensively and not take stupid penalties.

with enough speed you can probably roll a 4th line thats not all muckers, but they'll still be up against muckers most nights so you need guys that handle the physical side , Poehling has the speed and size but no hands and very little finish but I cant see Avon and Desnoyers outplaying our 4th line, Desnoyers specifically had a lot of trouble against Hartford the other day which is basically a whole 4th line team, theyre big and they hit and they worked our rookies over when we played them in training camp and on saturday

 

[deadhead]

Avon is 20 and Desnoyers is 21, this is where physical maturity matters, if you're in a scoring role on a top 6 line you can get away with being smaller if you're very skilled (TK, Brink), but in a bottom six role you have to be able to hold your own in the corners.

It takes time for players to fill out and add strength, even with good training programs (just look at Eagle players from programs like Georgia and Alabama, at age 22-23 they can still add strength), and most players don't get as good of physical training in the CHL or SHL like they do in the NHL (quality of facilities, size of training staff, willingness to subsidy off-season training).

One reason few players improve a lot after 24 or so is they're physically mature and have substantial on ice experience, so there are fewer avenues for improvement, usually more a matter of tweaks and opportunity (right place at the right time). Physically, the biggest changes are probably between 18 (the draft) and 22-23. Players usually add 15-25 lbs to their draft day weight, depending on genetics.

 

[VladDrag]

PHD line still sitting in the top10 lines in the league by xGF%, despite not scoring a goal.
Though you guys would like this.

View attachment 756575

Right now they are doing well. The majority of their deployment is against fourth line players. Make no mistake, Hathaway and Poehling are quality bottom-6 players. I had no major issue signing Poehling. Hathaway is a fine player, but I didn't want him signed because he doesn't really move the needle and potentially blocks younger players. So early returns are what you'd expect. Their numbers will be different as the season moves on and they are deployed against better opposition, I would bet.

 

[tnfrs]

the way i see development, if you have fringe guys that can score in the AHL but will only be 4th liners in the NHL it makes more sense to keep those fringe guys in the AHL playing a skill game, so the prospects coming up that have top 6 potential arent playing with 4th line guys

like laczynski is down in the AHL right now and he's lighting it up, he's more valuable playing with Samu and Gendron in the AHL than he is playing 10 min a night on our 4th line this year

 

[FLYguy3911]

I guess Frost ---> Sam Gagner is the new 'Provorov's floor ---> Hampus Lindholm'.

 

[Curufinwe]

Deslauriers is a total passenger. They could get better results by inserting any one of four other guys.