2023-24 Roster Thread 4: September is National Bourbon Heritage Month

[BrindamoursNose]

They already have two top picks in Gauthier and Michkov. One or two more is all you should require to rebuild, the bulk of rebuilding is finding solid players (not necessarily stars, but solid starters like Killorn, etc.) later in the draft. The Flyers found York (14), Farabee (14), Sanheim (17), TK (24), Foerster (23), Hart (52), Lindblom and Cates 5th rd. Key is don't blow too many high picks on Rubtsov, JOB, Ratcliffe, etc. And don't trade a 1st and 2nd for Risto.

If they're good

 

[FlyerNutter]

York, Farabee, Sanheim, Lind, and Cates are secondary trash that’s picked up any day in FA or Costco.

TK, and Hart are a touch above. Shall see for Tyson.

They have Matvei, and maybe Gauthier. It’s a pile of Vanilla yogurt basically everywhere else.

But right in time for some cap space to overpay for the FA defensemen class next summer.

 

[tnfrs]

this is gonna be a dark place in october huh?

 

[Rich Nixon]

York, Farabee, Sanheim, Lind, and Cates are secondary trash that’s picked up any day in FA or Costco.

TK, and Hart are a touch above. Shall see for Tyson.

They have Matvei, and maybe Gauthier. It’s a pile of Vanilla yogurt basically everywhere else.

But right in time for some cap space to overpay for the FA defensemen class next summer.

nah

 

[Beef Invictus]

They already have two top picks in Gauthier and Michkov. One or two more is all you should require to rebuild, the bulk of rebuilding is finding solid players (not necessarily stars, but solid starters like Killorn, etc.) later in the draft. The Flyers found York (14), Farabee (14), Sanheim (17), TK (24), Foerster (23), Hart (52), Lindblom and Cates 5th rd. Key is don't blow too many high picks on Rubtsov, JOB, Ratcliffe, etc. And don't trade a 1st and 2nd for Risto.

We don't even know that Gauthier will be a top line or top six player in the NHL, let's hold off on annointing him or putting him casually in MM's tier.

 

[Beef Invictus]

this is gonna be a dark place in october huh?

Basically the same. But we will have GDTs! But they'll be made by me, so they will suck.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

We don't even know that Gauthier will be a top line or top six player in the NHL, let's hold off on annointing him or putting him casually in MM's tier.

Just remember, we're the ones that overrate prospects around here.

 

[FlyerNutter]

nah

Better than a #4 on a cup contender?

 

[Rich Nixon]

Better than a #4 on a cup contender?

Too early to say and a lot of that depends on the other defenders they can put around him, but I'd say pretty confidently he has the potential to be a really good second pair or even low-end 1st pair guy on a good team. He's a good hockey player. Like, use your eyes when you watch the games.

Honestly a lot of your appraisals in that post are pretty bad. I think the way the team humps Cates is pretty silly, but he's certainly not trash--he's a terrific defensive forward with very little offensive touch. But he'd be a phenomenal utility player in the bottom 6 on any contending team, he'd get his minutes there.

Farabee had a nightmare season post-back surgery, but that's another guy who has shown in the past he certainly is not trash.

Konecny is not "a step above" from "secondart trash" status, he's a legit top 6 winger. He absolutely ate minutes last season and that's why you saw his scoring shoot up, but he's been in the upper tier of points-per-60 and such among wingers most seasons.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

I was considering re-upping Sportsnet NOW Premium to watch the Flyers because I'm interested in seeing some of the younger guys and how they do.

But capitalists gonna capitalist. We have no more NHL Gamecenter in Canada. It now belongs under the SN umbrella. Last year they threw us a bone and kept the price at $179. This year it's $249 I think.

I just want hockey. I don't care about the other bullshit sports you think I want to watch and have to pay for.

Why can't we just have that option?

tl;dr f*** you, Sportsnet. I'm out.

It's $200 if you're renewing (you should have received an early bird e-mail last week).

FYI

 

[FlyerNutter]

Too early to say and a lot of that depends on the other defenders they can put around him, but I'd say pretty confidently he has the potential to be a really good second pair or even low-end 1st pair guy on a good team. He's a good hockey player. Like, use your eyes when you watch the games.

Mistake one.

Your eyes are open.

Konecny had a nice year. Let’s see him repeat that, and I’ll be on board with the assessment. I won’t be in board with any kind of long term extension for fear of his health related to playing style. No thanks.

I see jack shit on the team in terms of anything other than at best hoping to negate the best players in the league. Flyers have tried this BS strategy forever, and frankly they sit near the bottom of the league because most of their current supposed top end guys are secondary trash when compared to the rest of the NHL.

Maybe York proves me wrong, but who the hell cares about a nice second pairing guy. Or I should rephrase that, I don’t at least.

This franchise is obsessed with secondary talent. f*** them all. In an attempt to be polite, take my opinions with the knowledge of how I detest this franchise. Ironic I know.

 

[tnfrs]

Too early to say and a lot of that depends on the other defenders they can put around him, but I'd say pretty confidently he has the potential to be a really good second pair or even low-end 1st pair guy on a good team. He's a good hockey player. Like, use your eyes when you watch the games.

Honestly a lot of your appraisals in that post are pretty bad. I think the way the team humps Cates is pretty silly, but he's certainly not trash--he's a terrific defensive forward with very little offensive touch. But he'd be a phenomenal utility player in the bottom 6 on any contending team, he'd get his minutes there.

Farabee had a nightmare season post-back surgery, but that's another guy who has shown in the past he certainly is not trash.

Konecny is not "a step above" from "secondart trash" status, he's a legit top 6 winger. He absolutely ate minutes last season and that's why you saw his scoring shoot up, but he's been in the upper tier of points-per-60 and such among wingers most seasons.

I agree with pretty much all of this. York could still become a legit 1st pair guy in a few years, hes a pretty smart defender especially 1 on 1. Ill always remember that time Tavares just absolutely undressed Sanheim and you could see the life drain from his eyes after, he hasnt been the same player since then. But York doesnt fall for that kind of stuff.



dont even let Travis outside, he's already been WALKED

 

[ponder719]

this is gonna be a dark place in october huh?

Status quo ante, until sufficient evidence exists that hope isn't a fool's errand. Optimally, that day will come soon, but I still don't trust that Lucy isn't going to yank the football away again.

 

[deadhead]

My experience in all sports is that players with high IQ and high work ethics tend to overperform relative to expectations, while talented players who lack competitive drive tend to underperform.

The last 56 games, with Frost and Cates as 2a and 2b, Flyers posted xGF 48.90, 21st in the league. In their 21 games after the TDL they posted a 50.26 xGF, 16th in the league. They weren't a good team, they weren't a playoff team but they were a competitive team

. We'll see how they look this season, they've lost Provorov, Hayes, JVR, Braun, TDA, Lemieux, Bellows, Sandstrom.
They added Couts, Atkinson, Foerster, Zamula, Walker, Poehling, Hathaway.

 

[Beef Invictus]

My experience in all sports is that players with high IQ and high work ethics tend to overperform relative to expectations, while talented players who lack competitive drive tend to underperform.

The last 56 games, with Frost and Cates as 2a and 2b, Flyers posted xGF 48.90, 21st in the league. In their 21 games after the TDL they posted a 50.26 xGF, 16th in the league. They weren't a good team, they weren't a playoff team but they were a competitive team

. We'll see how they look this season, they've lost Provorov, Hayes, JVR, Braun, TDA, Lemieux, Bellows, Sandstrom.
They added Couts, Atkinson, Foerster, Zamula, Walker, Poehling, Hathaway.

This thing where you pretend Cates wasn't actually a 1C is weird.

 

[Rich Nixon]

Mistake one.

Your eyes are open.

Konecny had a nice year. Let’s see him repeat that, and I’ll be on board with the assessment. I won’t be in board with any kind of long term extension for fear of his health related to playing style. No thanks.

I see jack shit on the team in terms of anything other than at best hoping to negate the best players in the league. Flyers have tried this BS strategy forever, and frankly they sit near the bottom of the league because most of their current supposed top end guys are secondary trash when compared to the rest of the NHL.

Maybe York proves me wrong, but who the hell cares about a nice second pairing guy. Or I should rephrase that, I don’t at least.

This franchise is obsessed with secondary talent. f*** them all. In an attempt to be polite, take my opinions with the knowledge of how I detest this franchise. Ironic I know.

I get the frustration because, trust me, it's warranted and I share it. But I think you're kinda misplacing it and shitting on players who don't deserve it.

They don't have "jack shit." They actually have a handful of useful young or young-ish players who would fit right in on a very good, competitive team. The problem is they don't have elite centerpiece talent to make use of it. That's because your options for acquiring that are basically:

1. Bottom out/luck out and draft top-5 (they got the luck once and...Nolan Patrick!)
2. Scout well/luck out and hit on a player outside of the top 5
3. Have the cap flexibilty or assets to sign/trade for it in the rare occasions it becomes available.

None of that has come to fruition, because they refused to bottom out (on purpose, at least) under Hextall and Fletcher, they haven't gotten that lightning strike luck, and for point #3...again, Hextall and Fletcher.

If York develops into a really good 2nd-pairing guy (and his ceiling might be a little higher than that even) then...that's a perfectly good use of a mid-1st round pick. Who gives a shit about nice second pairing defensemen? Uh, every goddamn team in the league. They're a pretty sought-after commodity.

As for Konecny, I didn't really give you an assessment, I stated a fact. Now I'll combine that with a bit of an assessment. This might get chincy for you, but it's a nuanced game, right? Even despite one particularly bad down year, Konecny is 83rd among forwards for even strength points per 60 since he entered the league. For perspective, Giroux is 70th over that time—and QuantHockey doesn't let me filter minimum games played, so when you scrape out the 10 small-sample size guys with 25 or fewer games played, Giroux is at about 61 and Konecny is around 72.

So, 30-32 teams over that time period means 90-96 first line players means that at even strength, Konecny has produced at first-line levels throughout his entire NHL career.

The raw point totals don't reflect that because:

1. He has averaged less than 14 ES minutes per game over his whole career, which is pretty low for guys who score the way he does (and a huge credit to the awesome geniuses who have coached the Flyers over that span)
2. The vast majority of his PP time was spent on either their godawful second unit early in his career or their godawful first unit since (2019-20 being the outlier).

You can think this is all pick-and-choose wizardry, but the point is this: When we see TK's stats TOTALLY EXPLODE!!! this past season, it's not really an anomaly. His scoring rate improved slightly this past year, but the vast majority of his "nice year" came from TOI. He's always scored at a first-line rate and he finally got first-line minutes, playing over 20 minutes a night. Which is about 3 minutes more per night compared to the year before and 5 minutes more than his career average.

That's it. That's the biggest difference. Travis Konecny is really good at scoring in the NHL. When the minutes go up, so do the point totals. It's a simple formula. Is a first liner a secondary player?

On the "secondary talent" thing, I'll disagree—at least in respect to like, York and Konecny. Those are really good players who would have an important role on any team in the NHL. Third, fourth, fifth-rate talent? Yeah, they love that shit. But that's the Ristos and Deslauriers and worse.

They don't suck because they picked players like York and Konecny. Those are guys that either already have or will soon outperform all established standards for their draft position. They suck because they haven't had cohesive leadership or a plan—or luck—to acquire the elite centerpieces you need to win in this era.

 

[FlyerNutter]

I get the frustration because, trust me, it's warranted and I share it. But I think you're kinda misplacing it and shitting on players who don't deserve it.

They don't have "jack shit." They actually have a handful of useful young or young-ish players who would fit right in on a very good, competitive team. The problem is they don't have elite centerpiece talent to make use of it. That's because your options for acquiring that are basically:

1. Bottom out/luck out and draft top-5 (they got the luck once and...Nolan Patrick!)
2. Scout well/luck out and hit on a player outside of the top 5
3. Have the cap flexibilty or assets to sign/trade for it in the rare occasions it becomes available.

None of that has come to fruition, because they refused to bottom out (on purpose, at least) under Hextall and Fletcher, they haven't gotten that lightning strike luck, and for point #3...again, Hextall and Fletcher.

If York develops into a really good 2nd-pairing guy (and his ceiling might be a little higher than that even) then...that's a perfectly good use of a mid-1st round pick. Who gives a shit about nice second pairing defensemen? Uh, every goddamn team in the league. They're a pretty sought-after commodity.

As for Konecny, I didn't really give you an assessment, I stated a fact. Now I'll combine that with a bit of an assessment. This might get chincy for you, but it's a nuanced game, right? Even despite one particularly bad down year, Konecny is 83rd among forwards for even strength points per 60 since he entered the league. For perspective, Giroux is 70th over that time—and QuantHockey doesn't let me filter minimum games played, so when you scrape out the 10 small-sample size guys with 25 or fewer games played, Giroux is at about 61 and Konecny is around 72.

So, 30-32 teams over that time period means 90-96 first line players means that at even strength, Konecny has produced at first-line levels throughout his entire NHL career.

The raw point totals don't reflect that because:

1. He has averaged less than 14 ES minutes per game over his whole career, which is pretty low for guys who score the way he does (and a huge credit to the awesome geniuses who have coached the Flyers over that span)
2. The vast majority of his PP time was spent on either their godawful second unit early in his career or their godawful first unit since (2019-20 being the outlier).

You can think this is all pick-and-choose wizardry, but the point is this: When we see TK's stats TOTALLY EXPLODE!!! this past season, it's not really an anomaly. His scoring rate improved slightly this past year, but the vast majority of his "nice year" came from TOI. He's always scored at a first-line rate and he finally got first-line minutes, playing over 20 minutes a night. Which is about 3 minutes more per night compared to the year before and 5 minutes more than his career average.

That's it. That's the biggest difference. Travis Konecny is really good at scoring in the NHL. When the minutes go up, so do the point totals. It's a simple formula. Is a first liner a secondary player?

On the "secondary talent" thing, I'll disagree—at least in respect to like, York and Konecny. Those are really good players who would have an important role on any team in the NHL. Third, fourth, fifth-rate talent? Yeah, they love that shit. But that's the Ristos and Deslauriers and worse.

They don't suck because they picked players like York and Konecny. Those are guys that either already have or will soon outperform all established standards for their draft position. They suck because they haven't had cohesive leadership or a plan—or luck—to acquire the elite centerpieces you need to win in this era.

Whoa.

I’ll read when I’ve got a chance.

Appreciate the thoughts tho I’m sure.

I lead with my feels for them emotionally. As always have tbh.

 

[flyersnorth]

It's $200 if you're renewing (you should have received an early bird e-mail last week).

FYI

I did receive the email, but there was no mention of an early bird discount. It just said it was set to auto-renew, and when I followed the link to the SN NOW page, it was listed at $249.

I'll check again.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I agree with pretty much all of this. York could still become a legit 1st pair guy in a few years, hes a pretty smart defender especially 1 on 1. Ill always remember that time Tavares just absolutely undressed Sanheim and you could see the life drain from his eyes after, he hasnt been the same player since then. But York doesnt fall for that kind of stuff.



dont even let Travis outside, he's already been WALKED

the flyers record with developing dman says the odds are long.

Will he fall into the ivan trap? meaning giving him to much too soon with no real support then stagnating.

 

[macleish1974]

Basically the same. But we will have GDTs! But they'll be made by me, so they will suck.

Beef, you are just a cynical bastard and trotsky-ite, but we love your GDTs! Please make a reference to my beloved Audrey every once in awhile.........and a song or two that I might have heard.
September 1, summer almost over........



Hard to believe, but Woodstock was 54 years ago......

 

[deadhead]

the flyers record with developing dman says the odds are long.

Will he fall into the ivan trap? meaning giving him to much too soon with no real support then stagnating.

I think the "Ivan trap" is more about the player overestimating his skill set and resisting coaching.
Ivan decided he was a premier offensive defenseman after his 17 goal season and gradually allowed his defense to erode, only to find out he was a mediocre offensive defenseman.
I think he'll rebound in CBJ as a 2nd pair D-man who is expected to play good defense.

York is smarter than Provorov, not as physically skilled, but more efficient, sometimes "less is more."
I'm not worried about him, if he has a fault, he's too conservative on offense, but experience should give him more confidence when to take chances.

Sanheim is another example of a player who hasn't been able to translate physical skill into production.
Sanheim is an elite player in the neutral zone, but meh in the D-zone and can't finish in the O-zone.
He won't get stronger or improve his lateral agility, but more focus on positioning and less confidence in his physical skills would help on defense, and less puck hogging (and better passing) could improve him in the O-zone.

Risto is again an example of a physically talented D-man who was badly coached, and became overconfident in his physical skills instead of developing a fundamentally sound game. He lacks the puck handling and skating skills to be a play driver, but his size and mobility could make him a good defensive defenseman if he continues to focus on that side of his game, and play within his limitations on offense.

I don't care if Bonk is a dynamic offensive force, at #22 I'll be happy if he fills out and is a smart, efficient D-man who consistently makes the right play.

Niskanen didn't wow with his skill set, he just made the right play. Kimmo was nothing special physically, he just was a very good player b/c he saw the ice, used leverage to compensate for lack of size, and didn't make mistakes.

People get enamoured with players like Makar, forgetting how rare they are - most defenses rely on good, reliable players, not ultra talented players.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I think the "Ivan trap" is more about the player overestimating his skill set and resisting coaching.
Ivan decided he was a premier offensive defenseman after his 17 goal season and gradually allowed his defense to erode, only to find out he was a mediocre offensive defenseman.
I think he'll rebound in CBJ as a 2nd pair D-man who is expected to play good defense.

York is smarter than Provorov, not as physically skilled, but more efficient, sometimes "less is more."
I'm not worried about him, if he has a fault, he's too conservative on offense, but experience should give him more confidence when to take chances.

Sanheim is another example of a player who hasn't been able to translate physical skill into production.
Sanheim is an elite player in the neutral zone, but meh in the D-zone and can't finish in the O-zone.
He won't get stronger or improve his lateral agility, but more focus on positioning and less confidence in his physical skills would help on defense, and less puck hogging (and better passing) could improve him in the O-zone.

Risto is again an example of a physically talented D-man who was badly coached, and became overconfident in his physical skills instead of developing a fundamentally sound game. He lacks the puck handling and skating skills to be a play driver, but his size and mobility could make him a good defensive defenseman if he continues to focus on that side of his game, and play within his limitations on offense.

I don't care if Bonk is a dynamic offensive force, at #22 I'll be happy if he fills out and is a smart, efficient D-man who consistently makes the right play.

Niskanen didn't wow with his skill set, he just made the right play. Kimmo was nothing special physically, he just was a very good player b/c he saw the ice, used leverage to compensate for lack of size, and didn't make mistakes.

People get enamoured with players like Makar, forgetting how rare they are - most defenses rely on good, reliable players, not ultra talented players.

Weird how every problem this team has faced for 40 years is the fault of players and not the common denominators in decision making.

 

[renberg]

I think the "Ivan trap" is more about the player overestimating his skill set and resisting coaching.
Ivan decided he was a premier offensive defenseman after his 17 goal season and gradually allowed his defense to erode, only to find out he was a mediocre offensive defenseman.
I think he'll rebound in CBJ as a 2nd pair D-man who is expected to play good defense.

Provorov developed an arrogance that was difficult to tolerate. Never his fault when anything went bad; all on him if anything good happened. Actually I look forward to seeing how he and Babcock work out. If he pulls the same crap in CBJ that he did in PHL he''s going to be looking for a gig in the KHL.

 

[Curufinwe]

Sanheim is another example of a player who hasn't been able to translate physical skill into production.

In the three seasons before the Flyers hired a dinosaur as their head coach, Sanheim produced 67 ES points. More than Severson, Fowler, Pionk, Dahlin, Hanifin, Andersson, Spurgeon, Trouba etc.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Beef Invictus]

Weird how every Flyers prospect doesn't translate. Hmm.