2023-24 Roster Thread 3: We Three Flyers

[blackjackmulligan]

So instead of plus minus, you want to use scoring as the only measure of player value?
I guess advanced metrics only matter when they make a player you like look good?

I don't think Cates will be anything special offensively. If gets you 35-45 points with good defense as a 3rd line center then don't see that as a problem. Will he get that many points if his minutes are cut? Time will tell.

I would expect him to improve on his faceoffs with an offseason to work on it. For a 5th rd pick he has already exceeded any expectations.

 

[deadhead]

I don't think Cates will be anything special offensively. If gets you 35-45 points with good defense as a 3rd line center then don't see that as a problem. Will he get that many points if his minutes are cut? Time will tell.

I would expect him to improve on his faceoffs with an offseason to work on it. For a 5th rd pick he has already exceeded any expectations.

I'm less interested in total points, which are a product of usage (how many minutes at ES and PP, which linemates) than pp/60 at ES and xGF%.

That is, does he score at a solid rate when he's on the ice, does he control play (i.e. create more scoring chances than allowed), and adjusted for linemates, how far is he above replacement.

If Couts is close to 100%, and Frost continues to play like he did the second half of last season, Cates could play better without increasing his point totals - especially if he is used more as an "energy line" center matched up against team's top lines and getting more D-zone starts.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I'm less interested in total points, which are a product of usage (how many minutes at ES and PP, which linemates) than pp/60 at ES and xGF%.

That is, does he score at a solid rate when he's on the ice, does he control play (i.e. create more scoring chances than allowed), and adjusted for linemates, how far is he above replacement.

If Couts is close to 100%, and Frost continues to play like he did the second half of last season, Cates could play better without increasing his point totals - especially if he is used more as an "energy line" center matched up against team's top lines and getting more D-zone starts.

total points still trump the other stats at the end of the day.

 

[deadhead]

total points still trump the other stats at the end of the day.

No, they don't. All stats have to be considered in context.
A good scorer can be sheltered, but that also means keeping him off the ice when the opposing team puts out a scoring line, so you need other players to fill that hole. A good defensive player can eat those minutes and partially neutralize the other team's leading scorers.
Which is why it's a TEAM sport, even a few elite scorers aren't enough to create an elite TEAM.

 

[Curufinwe]

total points still trump the other stats at the end of the day.

So the Flyers should have traded Laughton or Cates and kept Hayes, got it.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

No, they don't. All stats have to be considered in context.
A good scorer can be sheltered, but that also means keeping him off the ice when the opposing team puts out a scoring line, so you need other players to fill that hole. A good defensive player can eat those minutes and partially neutralize the other team's leading scorers.
Which is why it's a TEAM sport, even a few elite scorers aren't enough to create an elite TEAM.

players getting paid by pp/60 or total points?

So the Flyers should have traded Laughton or Cates and kept Hayes, got it.

that was exactly what I said. Move along now. talk about context

 

[Beef Invictus]

so total points are not as relevant? Is that what your saying?

This is why I specified "rate."

Cut his playing time to 4th line time and remove the top 6 talent from his line, and he would have many fewer points. Quality of teammates, usage, and sheer playing time did a ton to float the total higher. His 38 points are with getting 1C usage for most of the year. Drop him to 3C/Bottom Six and he isn't cracking 30 points.

 

[Curufinwe]

players getting paid by pp/60 or total points?

Depends on the player. If RNH was a UFA he wouldn't get $10m despite being a 100 point player because half of his total points came on the PP with McDavid and Draisaitl, and other teams know that he wouldn't get near that anywhere else.

Context.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

This exact conversation has been had before with the exact same parties.

 

[FlyerNutter]

No, they don't. All stats have to be considered in context.
A good scorer can be sheltered, but that also means keeping him off the ice when the opposing team puts out a scoring line, so you need other players to fill that hole. A good defensive player can eat those minutes and partially neutralize the other team's leading scorers.
Which is why it's a TEAM sport, even a few elite scorers aren't enough to create an elite TEAM.

Flyers have done a masterful job of trying this horseshit depth approach.

 

[deadhead]

Flyers have done a masterful job of trying this horseshit depth approach.

No, they haven't had good depth for a decade. They had a few guys scoring at the top, and a below average bottom six.

 

[FlyerNutter]

No, they haven't had good depth for a decade. They had a few guys scoring at the top, and a below average bottom six.

Lol no.

They had a few middle 6/2nd pair guys at the top, and dogshit below that.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

This exact conversation has been had before with the exact same parties.

Now fill an entire message board with that and the Quackverse.

The Aristocrats!

 

[deadhead]

Lol no.

They had a few middle 6/2nd pair guys at the top, and dogshit below that.

So you're saying G, Couts, Voracek were middle 6/2nd pair guys? Just asking.

 

[wasup]

You think every center is a speed merchant? Ever watch Couts skate?
Cates is a high IQ player who's a top defensive center, still learning offense.
He's not going to be a top scorer, but two way centers can have a long career and are valued by PO teams.

It's not Frost v Cates, neither is a potential 1C, both are good fits as middle six centers. They fill different roles.
Frost has more upside, but also a lower floor, more likely to be Domi than Barzal.

Cates has a high hockey IQ defensively and has never ever been an offensive player . Did you ever see him play for UMD or Team USA or Omaha . He has never produced offensively except for one year with UMD when Perenivich { I know I misspelled it } was pp quaterback and he picked up some freebees points .

I also am not saying it's Frost vs Cates I'm saying Cates is not a center man . Not for UMD not for Team USA not for Omaha USHL but somehow he is for Philly cause Tort's loves how he plays . Remember I am not saying Cates is a poor player but he should be use in a shutdown roll and playing left wing where his strength is and where he has been most of his career . Tort's thinks he is reinventing the wheel .

I swear I'm arguing with Bill Meltzer

 

[wasup]

Cates had 30+ points. How is that 4th line rate?

He scored 13 goals in 82 games getting top line PP mins , getting open net ice time late in games and playing 18 plus mins a night and confidence coming out of his ass cause of Coaches pet syndrome. Allison scored 9 goals in 60 games getting no pp time no open net mins and playing 12 plus mins a night getting structured in every zone of the ice . Yet people have Allison off the team or 4 line but Cates as # 2 center man .

Take TK away from Cates and his points will drop a lot .

 

[Magua]

I’m not sure one reasonable person would object to saying, “Cates is a good player with positive value.”

The issue is the Flyers consistently don’t understand the context of player value, and they don’t understand the maximization of it. You can make a valuable player less valuable. They overweigh certain traits and ignore the net impacts. They don’t understand usage, shooting %s, linemates, etc. And you’ll never escape their event horizon of obsessing over certain archetypes.

 

[FlyerNutter]

So you're saying G, Couts, Voracek were middle 6/2nd pair guys? Just asking.

Giroux is exception.

Let’s not pretend that Couturier or Voracek were some kind of offensive superstars. Nice players yeah. League is full of them.

Eat up that secondary vanilla depth baby. The model is flawed from the starting point.

 

[gertbfrobe16]

December 7 is a nonsense date. Nothing particular happened then. It's a random line you've invented to spin a bunch of made up BS around like a tetherball pole.

Dec. 7th 1941 a day which will live in infamy.

 

[deadhead]

I’m not sure one reasonable person would object to saying, “Cates is a good player with positive value.”

The issue is the Flyers consistently don’t understand the context of player value, and they don’t understand the maximization of it. You can make a valuable player less valuable. They overweigh certain traits and ignore the net impacts. They don’t understand usage, shooting %s, linemates, etc. And you’ll never escape their event horizon of obsessing over certain archetypes.

Theyj're rebuilding. They're thin. IF Couts is healthy, Michkov comes over as a center, and Frost builds on last season, both Cates and Gauthier will end up at LW. But until those things happen, someone has to play center. Cates gives you a defensive specialist at center who should improve offensively to some extent, but isn't going to be big scorer - and who cares?

People have weird ideas about the "average" NHL starter, what do you think the median (i.e. half are worse) 3C scores a season at ES?

Now most of these centers are also mediocre defensively, and some who score at a 2C rate are defensive liabilities.
So someone like Cates just has to score above the median 3C to have a lot of value as a center.

It's hard to separate out centers, but the median 3rd line forward (#230, 800 5x5 minutes) scored at a 1.23 pp/60 rate.
Drop it to 600 minutes (to add some injury limited players) and we're up to 1.48 pp/60. The median 2nd line forward, 1.88.
Cates was 1.37 for the season, but 1.56 the last 56 games when he started at center. So if he can build on that, he's a solid middle six center.

 

[deadhead]

I was going through some old files and I found this writeup on the 2018 draft - I'm sure the author will remember .
ADAM GINNING (LD) - #53
Linkoping (SHL

Despite nice box score numbers, my opinion of Ginning after the Ivan Hlinka was mostly negative. I thought he played unsure with the puck and was too slow making decisions, getting painted into corners. He was partnered with Filip Johansson, another player who I’d use the same descriptors about. But by the u18s, serving as Team Sweden’s big minutes eater, I’ve come around on him to some degree. It helped that he wasn’t paired with Johansson, who only
cemented my concerns.

Ginning is a big-bodied defender who isn’t afraid to play physical. He does show an aptitude to join in offensively at times, or to put himself in a position down low to shoot, but I don’t believe he has much projectable skill beyond the odd foray. Sometimes his puck feel can fail him when carrying. But as a simplified defender, there’s perhaps an athletic enough, decent skater who can play a shutdown game to be a depth NHL defender. I thought his puck moving was better than I remembered at the u18s, with some dandy stretch passes thrown in, but playing on big ice doesn’t force you to make quick decisions either. If I wasn’t entirely convinced on him, I am less mixed than before — enough to rank him based on his physical makeup and defensive game. But I’m not sure he has much upside.

 

[BiggE]

I’m not sure one reasonable person would object to saying, “Cates is a good player with positive value.”

The issue is the Flyers consistently don’t understand the context of player value, and they don’t understand the maximization of it. You can make a valuable player less valuable. They overweigh certain traits and ignore the net impacts. They don’t understand usage, shooting %s, linemates, etc. And you’ll never escape their event horizon of obsessing over certain archetypes.

It would be funny if it wasn’t so sad.

How the Flyers see Torts: A savior
How people that actually grasp hockey see Torts: an out of touch asshole

How the Flyers see Risto: core player, quality top 4 D
Everyone else: massively overpaid 6/7 Dman

How the Flyers see Cates: stud 2 way center, future Selke winner
Everyone else: solid 3LW

Give me a call when Torts is gone and Michkov arrives. Maybe, doubtful but just maybe, by then they’ll have gotten a clue.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

This is why I specified "rate."

Cut his playing time to 4th line time and remove the top 6 talent from his line, and he would have many fewer points. Quality of teammates, usage, and sheer playing time did a ton to float the total higher. His 38 points are with getting 1C usage for most of the year. Drop him to 3C/Bottom Six and he isn't cracking 30 points.

don't see any reason he cant crack 30 as the 3rd line center. Unless of course you believe he cant improve.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Theyj're rebuilding. They're thin. IF Couts is healthy, Michkov comes over as a center, and Frost builds on last season, both Cates and Gauthier will end up at LW. But until those things happen, someone has to play center. Cates gives you a defensive specialist at center who should improve offensively to some extent, but isn't going to be big scorer - and who cares?

People have weird ideas about the "average" NHL starter, what do you think the median (i.e. half are worse) 3C scores a season at ES?

Now most of these centers are also mediocre defensively, and some who score at a 2C rate are defensive liabilities.
So someone like Cates just has to score above the median 3C to have a lot of value as a center.

It's hard to separate out centers, but the median 3rd line forward (#230, 800 5x5 minutes) scored at a 1.23 pp/60 rate.
Drop it to 600 minutes (to add some injury limited players) and we're up to 1.48 pp/60. The median 2nd line forward, 1.88.
Cates was 1.37 for the season, but 1.56 the last 56 games when he started at center. So if he can build on that, he's a solid middle six center.

I don't see it that way. Def not on how they have the defense set up.

also there is zero indication they will move Cates to wing. Zero. Especially while Torts is the coach.

 

[ponder719]

I don't see it that way. Def not on how they have the defense set up.

also there is zero indication they will move Cates to wing. Zero. Especially while Torts is the coach.

They would absolutely move Frost to wing before Cates.