2023-24 Roster Thread 3: We Three Flyers

[Beef Invictus]

Frost actually played slightly more minutes at 5x5 than Cates after Dec 7, when Hayes was demoted.

Frost has more offensive skills, but right now Cates is the better player (unless you doubt advanced metrics), and may have more upside.

Frost had two partial NHL seasons before last season, and has always played center and in an offense first role. Had a strong finish last season, but how much more does he have? At this point he's not going to add much more strength or get faster - the primary area of improvement would be consistency and defense - the two areas where Torts rode him hard.

Cates played mostly LW in college in a very conservative system, moved to center as a rookie, and got the toughest defensive matchups. Despite that, once he had a couple months to get his feet wet, scored at a high 3C level the rest of the season. So you have to figure he has a chance to raise his game this season with more experience at center, especially improving faceoffs and vision on offense.

Ideally you'd build a "speed line" around Frost with Tippett and Atkinson, and a puck possession line around Cates, with Foerster at RW but who at LW???
They'd both be middle six lines, but with different roles and matched up against different opposing lines.
Farabee - Couts - TK would be your scoring line.

December 7 is a nonsense date. Nothing particular happened then. It's a random line you've invented to spin a bunch of made up BS around like a tetherball pole.

 

[Beef Invictus]

However, Cates is unusual, it's rare that a college LW who is primarily a defense first player is moved to center (other than a bottom six role).

Cates showed substantial improvement after playing center for a couple months, the question is always the extent to which that improvement can be sustained. Age works against him (players usually physically mature by 24 and don't get bigger or faster), gaining experience at center is in his favor.

He's not going to be a top offensive producer at center, but with the right wings he could be solid - just look at Couts before and after G - G carried a lot of the playmaking load for Couts, who in turn CYA allowing his wings to be more aggressive on offense. Problem is the ideal forward for Cates is probably Brink, though Foerster is a pretty solid passer, but would that be a good fit in terms of puck possession play, and is either player comfortable at LW? And overall speed could be an issue with those three together, but high IQ can compensate to some extent.

In a rebuild, it's good for both Cates and Gauthier (at BC) to get experience at center, even if they're eventually destined for LW if the Flyers land a true playmaking center (Michkov will play there in the KHL). Provides depth, wings experienced at taking POs, the ability to shuffle lines chasing matchups, etc.

He scored at a 4th line rate.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Is December 7th the most monumental day in Flyers history?

The biggest since Lake Tahoe to be sure.

 

[freakydallas13]

He scored at a 4th line rate.

This is a lot of mental gymnastics to make a player who scored at the rate of an average 4th liner (despite being given second line minutes) look good here.

 

[Curufinwe]

Low end 3rd liner is fairer.

Our regular 4th liners scored a fair bit below 1.46 ESP/60 or 1.37 5on5 P/60.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Laughton was also below the Cates line, which unusual for him based on the last four years where he scored at 1.71 5on5 P/60.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Farabee-Cates-Konecny
Tippett-Laughton-Atkinson
Poehling-Frost-Hathaway
Deslauriers-Couturier-Allison

Scratch Frost and double shift Cates. That’s something Torts would do.
I like Cates as a player but his usage sucks. He would be fine in a 3C/4C role

 

[flyerslducks]

We need to trade tk, hart, sanheim asap. This team will overachieve, Especially to start

 

[deadhead]

Scratch Frost and double shift Cates. That’s something Torts would do.
I like Cates as a player but his usage sucks. He would be fine in a 3C/4C role

Where do people come up with this stuff? Frost played a tad bit more at 5x5 than Cates.
Cates plays the PK and both are on the PP, where Cates was more effective than Frost last season, though that was probably a fluke.
If Couts returns, they'll be "2a" and "2b", both middle six centers used in different roles.

 

[wasup]

Where do people come up with this stuff? Frost played a tad bit more at 5x5 than Cates.
Cates plays the PK and both are on the PP, where Cates was more effective than Frost last season, though that was probably a fluke.
If Couts returns, they'll be "2a" and "2b", both middle six centers used in different roles.

Cates is not a center he is a left winger . He was bottom 5 in the league in faceoff percentage and does not have the speed or creativity to be a center . The only way we talk center is cause Tort's infatuation with him and driving square peg into round hole .

Cates is a good player but his usage and deployment are a complete joke . When Tort's was questioned about him last year his response was " I don't care , I like the way he plays hockey so he is going to get every opportunity " That tells you all you need to know about our beloved Top coach that all the players love .

 

[deadhead]

Cates is not a center he is a left winger . He was bottom 5 in the league in faceoff percentage and does not have the speed or creativity to be a center . The only way we talk center is cause Tort's infatuation with him and driving square peg into round hole .

Cates is a good player but his usage and deployment are a complete joke . When Tort's was questioned about him last year his response was " I don't care , I like the way he plays hockey so he is going to get every opportunity " That tells you all you need to know about our beloved Top coach that all the players love .

You think every center is a speed merchant? Ever watch Couts skate?
Cates is a high IQ player who's a top defensive center, still learning offense.
He's not going to be a top scorer, but two way centers can have a long career and are valued by PO teams.

It's not Frost v Cates, neither is a potential 1C, both are good fits as middle six centers. They fill different roles.
Frost has more upside, but also a lower floor, more likely to be Domi than Barzal.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Frost played a tad bit more at 5x5 than Cates.

Cates has an incredibly weird distribution of 5v5 TOI.

The averages are what they are. But he shared the ice with the Forward who lead the team in 5v5 TOI in that game at one of the highest frequencies in the league. You just don't see that combination very often.

 

[Rebels57]

I wonder if MAYBE he gets moved back to LW with Coots back? Guess it depends on how Poehling looks early on.

 

[FlyerNutter]

You think every center is a speed merchant? Ever watch Couts skate?
Cates is a high IQ player who's a top defensive center, still learning offense.
He's not going to be a top scorer, but two way centers can have a long career and are valued by PO teams.

It's not Frost v Cates, neither is a potential 1C, both are good fits as middle six centers. They fill different roles.
Frost has more upside, but also a lower floor, more likely to be Domi than Barzal.

Definitely not in this trailer park organization

 

[deadhead]

Cates has an incredibly weird distribution of 5v5 TOI.

The averages are what they are. But he shared the ice with the Forward who lead the team in 5v5 TOI in that game at one of the highest frequencies in the league. You just don't see that combination very often.

Last year TOI were skewed by two factors, the desire to give the kids more time and a lack of warm bodies:
5x5 last 56 games (starting Dec 7 when Hayes was demoted):
TK 14:44, Tippett 14:20, Frost 14:05, Hayes 13:52, Laughton 13:45, Cates 13:44, [Foerster 13:19], Farabee 13:11, Allison 12:49, JVR 12:45,
Rolling 3 fairly stable lines.
Next year Couts, Atkinson and Foerster will replace/push down Hayes, JVR and Allison.

Note even after Hayes was moved to 3C, Torts gave him plenty of PT (probably trying to maintain any trade value).

 

[blackjackmulligan]

He scored at a 4th line rate.

Cates had 30+ points. How is that 4th line rate?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Last year TOI were skewed by two factors, the desire to give the kids more time and a lack of warm bodies:
5x5 last 56 games (starting Dec 7 when Hayes was demoted):
TK 14:44, Tippett 14:20, Frost 14:05, Hayes 13:52, Laughton 13:45, Cates 13:44, [Foerster 13:19], Farabee 13:11, Allison 12:49, JVR 12:45,
Rolling 3 fairly stable lines.
Next year Couts, Atkinson and Foerster will replace/push down Hayes, JVR and Allison.

Note even after Hayes was moved to 3C, Torts gave him plenty of PT (probably trying to maintain any trade value).

Those are averages. Cates very specifically did not get rolled in some situations and I think that’s what gets remembered. Look at his distribution on HockeyViz: PHI 2223 N. Cates Quality of Teammates and Competition

Infrequently #1, but commonly near the top and deployed with that guy very often relative to league average.

 

[Curufinwe]

Cates had 30+ points. How is that 4th line rate?

Laughton had 40+ points but scored at a lower ES rate than Cates.

 

[deadhead]

Frost and Tippett looked good together the previous season, and same this season.
Meanwhile, if you're gonna start Cates at center, what better forward than your best forward who's not as dependent on his center?

This should change this season, I'd expect Farabee - Couts - TK as the first line, maybe Atkinson but I'd bet on TK.
Foerster may be a better fit for Cates, given how you use that line.
If you want to match Cates against top opposing lines (as they did last season) who would be the best linemates for those shifts?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Cates had 30+ points. How is that 4th line rate?

Now account for spending the whole season being fed top 6 usage, and you'll see.

 

[Tripod]

MUST DEFEND CATES CUZ TORTS LOVES HIM!

ELITE IQ!

 

[Curufinwe]

They added the already announced preseason games to the schedule. Six weeks and four days until the first one on 9/25. Only six in total this season, which is good. Eight was two too many.

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[blackjackmulligan]

Laughton had 40+ points but scored at a lower ES rate than Cates.

does ES rate now carry more weight than total points?

 

[freakydallas13]

"Actually, playing your best winger with a 3rd/4th line center is a good idea"

And contrarians claim to hate when a team intentionally tanks.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Now account for spending the whole season being fed top 6 usage, and you'll see.

so total points are not as relevant? Is that what your saying?

 

[deadhead]

so total points are not as relevant? Is that what your saying?

So instead of plus minus, you want to use scoring as the only measure of player value?
I guess advanced metrics only matter when they make a player you like look good?