2023-24 Roster Thread 2: The Days Get Longer Edition

[baudib1]

Works well for the 3 year express rebuild timeline we're being sold on!

Franchise defining? Chicago made three 1st round picks last year, starting at #7, along with two 2nd rounders. Well, they have two 1sts this year, including a borderline generational prospect, and four 2nd rounders. Guess which one is the franchise defining draft. They also have two 1sts and two 2nds the next 2 years.

The Flyers are a mile away from a contending roster. Their NHL talent is thin; their prospect pool is thin. Even if they made 3 1st round picks this year (with no 2nds), it sure as shit isn't franchise defining, though they'd like to think of it as such. Buffalo made three 1st round picks last year, after two the previous season (including #1), and multiple stars already on their roster. Columbus made three 1st round picks two years ago (and a couple bleh ones at that). That's also sort of the issue: you need to select the right players.

I was thinking how far the Flyers are away from a SC.

After making the Finals the Knights made big moves to get Stone, Eichel and Pietrangelo. They also added Barbashev, Stephenson. Basically they gave up some late picks and Brannstrom (who I NEVER liked after seeing him in preseason), Tuch and a couple of middling prospects.

If you add Stone/Eichel/Pietrangelo et Al are the Flyers are contender? Almost certainly. So it’s doable.

But as far as I can see, the Flyers haven’t acquired a player of that caliber since the Carter/Richards trades. They have acquired maybe 3 players that good in 15 years (Giroux, Pronger, Couturier).

 

[deadhead]

Critical point.

All the picks in the world are nice, and they don’t even have they many…

But with what’s basically the exact same scouting department that shone for the last decade.

What could go wrong

I don't think the problem was amateur scouting (pro scouting is another matter) but Hextall's fixation on size, he traded up for Ratcliff, picked Ginning, etc.
The one pick which was probably bad scouting was JOB.
Rubtsov was a bad choice in a bad draft.
Patrick? Seems that may have been Hextall over his scouts.

But they've done well finding talent after the second round, when scouts "rule." Not as good as TB, but better than most teams.
2014: Lindblom #138
2015: Fedotov #188
2017: Cates #137, Lycksell #168
2018: Ersson #143, Zamula UDFA
2019: Attard #72
2020: Desnoyers #135
2021: Kolosov #78, [Zanetti, Samson, Avon]
2022: Kaplan #69, Gendron #220

 

[FlyerNutter]

I don't think the problem was amateur scouting (pro scouting is another matter) but Hextall's fixation on size, he traded up for Ratcliff, picked Ginning, etc.
The one pick which was probably bad scouting was JOB.
Rubtsov was a bad choice in a bad draft.
Patrick? Seems that may have been Hextall over his scouts.

But they've done well finding talent after the second round, when scouts "rule." Not as good as TB, but better than most teams.
2014: Lindblom #138
2015: Fedotov #188
2017: Cates #137, Lycksell #168
2018: Ersson #143, Zamula UDFA
2019: Attard #72
2020: Desnoyers #135
2021: Kolosov #78, [Zanetti, Samson, Avon]
2022: Kaplan #69, Gendron #220

Sure. If there was a team that was professional at pumping out dodge caravans. That’s the Flyer scouting dept.

They ate dogshit, and managed to hide for long enough.

 

[deadhead]

Flyers found talent:
2015: took Provorov over Werenski, TK at #24 was the best pick until Aho at #35, Carlo at #37, Hintz at #49, Sandstrom #70, Cirelli #72, Roy #96
2016: Rubtsov #22, Tage Thompson #26, Kyrou #35, Laberge #36, DeBrincat #39, Girard #47, Hart #48, Allison #52, Hronek #53, Dube #56, Fox #66, Twarynski #82, Mete #100
2017: Patrick #2, Heiskanen #3, Makar, #4, Pettersson #5, Frost #27, Ratcliffe #35, Robertson #39, Ustimenko #80, Bryson #99
2018: Farabee #14, JOB #19, Miller #22, Ginning #50, Durzi #52, Addisson #53,
2019: Boldy #11, York #14, Caufield #15, Newhook #16, #34 Brink, #40 Hoglander, #72 Attard
2020: Foerster #23, Barron #25, Andrae #54

The biggest misses,
Provorov instead of Werenski,
Rubtsov instead of Thompson/Kyrou, Laberge instead of DeBrincat/Girard, but note odds against them - out of 45 picks (22-66) only eight were worth taking - Flyers got 1 of that 8 with 4 picks.
JOB was an outright whiff, Ginning was a reach.
York is tougher, Boldy is off to a great start, but trade allowed them to take Brink

 

[Gregor Samsa]

I’m unsure how to grade the pick of Provy with hindsight now. He was good for a little while and worth the pick. Then he wasn’t

I’m trying to be optimistic and thinking the draft misses will benefit the Flyers in the long run because they made a rebuild unavoidable. If the Flyers drafted a couple better players they would still be stuck in that “get into the playoffs and anything can happen” mindset that has hurt the team for so long

 

[deadhead]

I’m unsure how to grade the pick of Provy with hindsight now. He was good for a little while and worth the pick. Then he wasn’t

I’m trying to be optimistic and thinking the draft misses will benefit the Flyers in the long run because they made a rebuild unavoidable. If the Flyers drafted a couple better players they would still be stuck in that “get into the playoffs and anything can happen” mindset that has hurt the team for so long

Yeah. Be good or be bad, but don't muddle along for a decade.
Problem comes when you think a 96 and 98 season are the norm, and ignore the seasons in between.
Flyers were basically a 90 point team from 2012-2021 that fluctuated above and below that level.
So nothing got fixed until they imploded.

 

[Rich Nixon]

My great fear is that they clear out some absolute crap (Hayes, TDA) and bring in a little fresh blood, either through trades or off the farm. Then they get 66.666% of Couturier back, Frost pops out as a 65-70 point center, and all of a sudden they pump those OT loss numbers up to 20 or so. Mirage wild card chase for a month in January, finish solidly 11th in the conference, pick 10th overall or something.

 

[Sombastate]

My great fear is that they clear out some absolute crap (Hayes, TDA) and bring in a little fresh blood, either through trades or off the farm. Then they get 66.666% of Couturier back, Frost pops out as a 65-70 point center, and all of a sudden they pump those OT loss numbers up to 20 or so. Mirage wild card chase for a month in January, finish solidly 11th in the conference, pick 10th overall or something.

Unless Frost becomes a 100 point center, I can't see them being that good. I think worst (best?) case scenario is that they pick around 7th again

 

[Gregor Samsa]

My great fear is that they clear out some absolute crap (Hayes, TDA) and bring in a little fresh blood, either through trades or off the farm. Then they get 66.666% of Couturier back, Frost pops out as a 65-70 point center, and all of a sudden they pump those OT loss numbers up to 20 or so. Mirage wild card chase for a month in January, finish solidly 11th in the conference, pick 10th overall or something.

They should be a really bad team. If they aren’t that means a few players probably broke out in a big way which would be an alright consolation

 

[Rich Nixon]

They should be a really bad team. If they aren’t that means a few players probably broke out in a big way which would be an alright consolation

Really bad teams can finish 10th in a conference. Especially if they can clock 20 OT losses. If that number sounds crazy high, consider that 40 of Tortorella's last ~200 games were OT losses, so it's only upping that pace by 5%. 34-28-20? That's 88 points with under 35 wins!

Again, it's a worst-case-scenario fear. But it's also why trading Hart is so imperative.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

I have a good feeling that Florida pick next year ain’t gonna be 24-32.

Go Leafs, Bruins, Tampa.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I don't think the problem was amateur scouting (pro scouting is another matter) but Hextall's fixation on size, he traded up for Ratcliff, picked Ginning, etc.
The one pick which was probably bad scouting was JOB.
Rubtsov was a bad choice in a bad draft.
Patrick? Seems that may have been Hextall over his scouts.

But they've done well finding talent after the second round, when scouts "rule." Not as good as TB, but better than most teams.
2014: Lindblom #138
2015: Fedotov #188
2017: Cates #137, Lycksell #168
2018: Ersson #143, Zamula UDFA
2019: Attard #72
2020: Desnoyers #135
2021: Kolosov #78, [Zanetti, Samson, Avon]
2022: Kaplan #69, Gendron #220

more scouting to me as none have gone elsewhere.

All those players you mention above the book is till wide open if they were good picks. Cant say good or bad at this point. except the 2 in bold.

How is it better than most teams when only 2 NHL players on that list in 9 years.

I have a good feeling that Florida pick next year ain’t gonna be 24-32.

Go Leafs, Bruins, Tampa.

I think it will be better. Florida takes a step back.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

more scouting to me as none have gone elsewhere.

All those players you mention above the book is till wide open if they were good picks. Cant say good or bad at this point. except the 2 in bold.

How is it better than most teams when only 2 NHL players on that list in 9 years.


I think it will be better. Florida takes a step back.

Agreed. Pick #20 or something would be awesome.

 

[deadhead]

Florida is only going to compete next year if Bob repeats this PO run, when he's meh, so are they.
They could easily miss the playoffs if Bob has a regular season run like this past season.
They have some cap room, but a bunch of holes on defense - and can you expect Montour and Forsling to play at this level going forward?

 

[Gregor Samsa]

I would hate to wish injury on anyone but a long Matt Tkachuk injury next year would be amazing. That pick could be high

 

[Rebels57]

I would hate to wish injury on anyone but a long Matt Tkachuk injury next year would be amazing. That pick could be high

It's top 10 protected in 2024. No protection in 2025.

I don't think there's any chance they finish Bottom 10, so best case and a possible scenario is somewhere in that 10-20 range.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

It's top 10 protected in 2024. No protection in 2025.

I don't think there's any chance they finish Bottom 10, so best case and a possible scenario is somewhere in that 10-20 range.

Is it bad that I kinda wanna see the Panthers finish in the Bottom 10 just to see the mental gymnastics that will be done to crush Zito and yet still support Fletcher?

 

[Rebels57]

Is it bad that I kinda wanna see the Panthers finish in the Bottom 10 just to see the mental gymnastics that will be done to crush Zito and yet still support Fletcher?

Here's what will happen..they finish bottom 10 in in 23-24 and pick conveys to 2025. In 2025 they finish 11th worst but win the lottery and move up to 1st overall. We draft some sure-thing but he busts harder than Alexandre Daigle and Nail Yakupov.

 

[Chinatown88]

 

[RANKKA]

which means the following are not getting one?

Fedotov
Wylie
Barratt
Bellows

 

[GKJ]

which means the following are not getting one?

Fedotov
Wylie
Barratt
Bellows

Fedotov has his contract tolled until he can fulfill it.

 

[RANKKA]

Fedotov has his contract tolled until he can fulfill it.

ok good

 

[BrindamoursNose]

How is @deadhead making it through the day now that he knows Bellows won't be back

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

How is @deadhead making it through the day now that he knows Bellows won't be back

Well you see… he was all about Bellows until he was sent down and then he said that Torts had seen enough and doesn’t want to see him again and then a week later when he was called back up he was all about him again.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I’m not having this discussion except for one tiny piece.

Ginning was a reach

Ginning was a reach. Adam Ginning was a reach. THEN WHY HAVE WE HAD THE SAME DISCUSSION ABOUT THAT PICK FOR FIVE YEARS?! lightfyllyuygukuygyulglyuyulglyuluyg