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Speculation: 2023-24 Armchair GM thread

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Looking at Connor Brown’s contract which is performance bonus-heavy, could we similarly do a thing with someone like Gus to push the bonus penalty to the following season?
 
Spurgeon said:
Looking at Connor Brown’s contract which is performance bonus-heavy, could we similarly do a thing with someone like Gus to push the bonus penalty to the following season?
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Its only 35+ or players with 400 nhl games and 100 days last season on IR.
 
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Jacob Lucchini. $775K x 1 2-way deal. GMBG goes back to the PIT well one more time.

Vinni Lettieri. $775k x 2 2-way. #oneofus
 
Based on these UFA goalie signings, it feels like it’d be a smart move to gamble on a longer term deal for Gus in the $4M range.

He’d obviously have to be amenable to something like that, but it feels like something both sides would benefit from.

Wouldn’t be able to roster a 22-man roster without trading Merrill and going with league min guys as the 2 extras though.
 
keppel146 said:
BG prob lowballing him. What did they offer Fiala, 5 mil?
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Russo speculated that, for long-term specifically, the Wild were willing to go $5-6M AAV for Fiala. Guerin does lowball selectively, but I don't mind. This team needs good contracts like a man in the desert needs water, and he doesn't seem to lowball foundational guys (see Kaprizov, Boldy, and JEE), which are the only ones I'd be worried about upsetting. You could argue Fiala to be foundational, but I think there's an argument to be made that he's not, especially as he ages (important if you're going long-term with him). I think that probably makes him borderline.

Do you consider Gus foundational? I'm legitimately asking that question, I'd like to hear your answer. Personally, I'd like to see him do it for even a full season before committing big money.
 
BagHead said:
Russo speculated that, for long-term specifically, the Wild were willing to go $5-6M AAV for Fiala. Guerin does lowball selectively, but I don't mind. This team needs good contracts like a man in the desert needs water, and he doesn't seem to lowball foundational guys (see Kaprizov, Boldy, and JEE), which are the only ones I'd be worried about upsetting. You could argue Fiala to be foundational, but I think there's an argument to be made that he's not, especially as he ages (important if you're going long-term with him). I think that probably makes him borderline.

Do you consider Gus foundational? I'm legitimately asking that question, I'd like to hear your answer. Personally, I'd like to see him do it for even a full season before committing big money.
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Guerin had several opportunities to lock Fiala up on a 7 or 8 year deal ranging from $6-7.5M. I’d much rather have shipped Zucc off and signed Fiala to that deal than how Guerin handled those negotiations.

Fiala is a Top 20 winger in this league and those contract extensions would have had him locked up throughout his entire prime with the deal expiring just as he hit his 30s.

However, the trade did result in us getting back an ELC defenseman that immediately looks like he’s already able to step in as a Top 4 RD. The timing of that couldn’t have been better, so all things considered, it’s worked out fine.

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As far as Gus goes. I think going long-term is the right move because it’s probably the only time he’s going to sign a deal that could give you +EV. If I’m a goalie coming off a career year after making $800K, I’m taking the guaranteed generational wealth and locking up a 6 year $24M contract. Now, it could backfire, but I don’t think Gus ever regresses to a point where he’s not an NHL-level goalie. If he regresses to a backup level, then he’s being overpaid by what $2M/year? If he consistently performs like a .920 SV% goalie though, then this team is paying $4M for a goalie that is probably worth closer to $7.5-8M on the open market.
 
BagHead said:
Russo speculated that, for long-term specifically, the Wild were willing to go $5-6M AAV for Fiala. Guerin does lowball selectively, but I don't mind. This team needs good contracts like a man in the desert needs water, and he doesn't seem to lowball foundational guys (see Kaprizov, Boldy, and JEE), which are the only ones I'd be worried about upsetting. You could argue Fiala to be foundational, but I think there's an argument to be made that he's not, especially as he ages (important if you're going long-term with him). I think that probably makes him borderline.

Do you consider Gus foundational? I'm legitimately asking that question, I'd like to hear your answer. Personally, I'd like to see him do it for even a full season before committing big money.
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I'm not in the longerterm camp due to my being a huge fan of Wallstedt. If I am predicting Wallstedt to become a regular goalie in 2-3 years, then I am not going to be lock up Gus at long term or #1A numbers.

If its a longer term, then it'll have to be at an AAV you would normally pay for a tandem goalie. If it's a shorter term, I don't mind going a little higher with the AAV as long as it tops out at a 2-3 years.
 
I'd is normal how no teams , even ones with cap refuse to give up things for rentals such as a 1st, or 2nd? Is this a cap issue, or nhl issue? Much like draft where teams refused to trade picks?
 
Dr Jan Itor said:
Most I remember hearing they offered Fiala was 3 x $6M.
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Yep. No long term deals as offered. If I recall correctly, they thought he was the type of guy you needed to “keep motivated”. He also wasn’t a impact player in the playoffs.

Well, he was a ppg again this year, and an impact+ player in the playoffs. He also was an impact player in the playoffs for Nashville at 20yo. Boldy and Kaprizov weren’t impact players in the playoffs this year either. Seems that our style of play in the playoffs (grit first) combined with a complete lack of top-6 center icemen, doesn’t lend itself to star players producing. It also doesn’t lead to winning either. Whatever though
 
KaprizovSaveUs said:
Yep. No long term deals as offered. If I recall correctly, they thought he was the type of guy you needed to “keep motivated”. He also wasn’t a impact player in the playoffs.

Well, he was a ppg again this year, and an impact+ player in the playoffs. He also was an impact player in the playoffs for Nashville at 20yo. Boldy and Kaprizov weren’t impact players in the playoffs this year either. Seems that our style of play in the playoffs (grit first) combined with a complete lack of top-6 center icemen, doesn’t lend itself to star players producing. It also doesn’t lead to winning either. Whatever though
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I've just run out of things to say about Guerin that I haven't already said before. I can't see him being able to build a Cup winner, or even a perennial contender. Unless he suddenly has a change of heart after the buyouts are over and starts prioritizing actual skill over grit and toughness and character, we'll see.
 
Dr Jan Itor said:
Most I remember hearing they offered Fiala was 3 x $6M.
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It's not clear here what Russo means by long-term, but he did use those exact words.

Fiala was hoping for a long-term deal at big money this summer, but the Wild never treated him like reigning Calder Trophy winner Kirill Kaprizov. The Wild were only willing to go long-term in the $5 to $6 million range, while Fiala was seeking significantly more. -Russo
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Unless Russo thinks 3 years is a long-term deal, it seems to me they may have offered more.
 
KaprizovSaveUs said:
Yep. No long term deals as offered. If I recall correctly, they thought he was the type of guy you needed to “keep motivated”. He also wasn’t a impact player in the playoffs.

Well, he was a ppg again this year, and an impact+ player in the playoffs. He also was an impact player in the playoffs for Nashville at 20yo. Boldy and Kaprizov weren’t impact players in the playoffs this year either. Seems that our style of play in the playoffs (grit first) combined with a complete lack of top-6 center icemen, doesn’t lend itself to star players producing. It also doesn’t lead to winning either. Whatever though
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Not to mention, Fiala was the only player that showed up in that Vancouver play-in series.

Can’t justify paying him for only having a “good 3 months”, but let’s criticize his 2 lackluster playoff performances.

If Faber turns out to be a stud, then all is forgiven, but I’d be pretty happy to have a core of Kap, Fiala, and Boldy in our Top 6 right now.

Dr Jan Itor said:
Most I remember hearing they offered Fiala was 3 x $6M.
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They could’ve got him on a bargain of a long-term deal instead of that 2 year $3M AAV bridge they signed him to. Would love to know what his camp was looking for during both of his contract extensions.
 
Spurgeon said:
Not to mention, Fiala was the only player that showed up in that Vancouver play-in series.

Can’t justify paying him for only having a “good 3 months”, but let’s criticize his 2 lackluster playoff performances.

If Faber turns out to be a stud, then all is forgiven, but I’d be pretty happy to have a core of Kap, Fiala, and Boldy in our Top 6 right now.


They could’ve got him on a bargain of a long-term deal instead of that 2 year $3M AAV bridge they signed him to. Would love to know what his camp was looking for during both of his contract extensions.
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Definitely makes sense to tie up all your money in wingers
 
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