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Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Off-season is in full swing

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shadow1 said:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH][/TH]

[TH]Points (B)[/TH]
[TH]TOI (B)[/TH]
[TH]Points (A)[/TH]
[TH]TOI (A)[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Burakovsky[/TD]
[TD]25 (.32 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]11:08[/TD]
[TD]45 (.78 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]15:12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kadri[/TD]
[TD]44 (.60 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]16:11[/TD]
[TD]36 (.71 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]17:26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Donskoi[/TD]
[TD]37 (.46 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]13:25[/TD]
[TD]33 (.51 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]16:15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nichushkin[/TD]
[TD]10 (.18 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]11:15[/TD]
[TD]27 (.42 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]14:04[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Saad[/TD]
[TD]33 (.57 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]16:45[/TD]
[TD]24 (.55 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]14:05[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lehkonen[/TD]
[TD]38 (.51 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]15:06[/TD]
[TD]51 (.80 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]20:27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rodrigues[/TD]
[TD]43 (.52 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]15:50[/TD]
[TD]39 (.57 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]17:51[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Johansen[/TD]
[TD]28 (.51 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]15:46[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colton[/TD]
[TD]32 (.40 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]12:21[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wood[/TD]
[TD]27 (.36 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]12:06[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Drouin[/TD]
[TD]29 (.50 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]14:54[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

B = Season before joining Colorado
A = 1st season with Colorado

On average, the forwards the Avalanche have added have seen an increase of +2:14 (ATOI) and +0.17 (PPG). Brandon Saad is the only outlier, and even then his productivity was a wash despite a big decrease in ice time.

Anyone else curious how the blank cells will look in a year?
Click to expand...

Yeah honestly I expect all of them to perform better this year with the Avs then last year.

Part of why this is the case btw is the Avs are notorious for targeting players that underperformed on other teams. And you could certainly make the argument all of our acquisitions again this summer underperformed last year.

My guesses for each of them:

- Johansen gets +34 points, and +2:00 minutes of ice time from 2022/23

- Colton gets +9 points and +3:30 ice time

- Wood gets +6 points and +1:00 ice time

- Drouin gets +17 points and +1:00 ice time


Bonus* Tatar gets +5 points and the same ice time.
 
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GeoRox89 said:
Why are we now having a pissing match over Dallas’ status as a contender?

Regardless of who is better, the Avs wish they could pick players like Robertson, Johnston and Stankoven (think he ends up a wing in the NHL - there’s no way he’s even 5’7) in the late first and second round
Click to expand...

It's not a pissing match for me. I think the Avs have alot of risk this season but atleast gave themselves some upside that they didn't last year. Hopefully they don't wave the white flag at the deadline and will be willing to make changes if it's needed. Health will once again be important.

Wouldn't shock me if Dallas was better just saying they have alot of cap tied up to older players. The whole contender thing is overrated anyways IMO. NHL is crazy unpredictable and health plays a major factor. Dallas/Colorado are both teams that if things go there way and they get a little luck in the postseason they can win a cup .. and there's quite a few teams like that next year. There isn't a dominant favorite this season unless NJ takes another jump IMO.
 
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ANewHope said:
I don't get why people don't have age concerns about Dallas given all the talk about it on this board. Clearly everybody knows that it's Robertson's team and they have Miro/Johnston/Hintz etc. but Benn was second on the team in points last year, Pavelski 3rd, Seguin 6th. All played decent sized roles in the playoffs. Added Duchene.

They have lots of older players who take up alot of cap. Regression can hit. The second those guys take a step back even if the young guys are the ones driving everything it's alot of cap space to eat up. A huge part of why Dallas has been able to be successful IMO is because Benn/Seguin haven't been dragging them down and Pavelski refuses to age.
Click to expand...
They absolutely have some. Their renewed core is pretty young though so the old guys don’t have to row the boat anymore. Just not fall off the cliff.
 
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henchman21 said:
They absolutely have some. Their renewed core is pretty young though so the old guys don’t have to row the boat anymore. Just not fall off the cliff.
Click to expand...

I agree they have good young talent but if a few of those guys fall off this year they'll feel it big time. Someone like Benn IMO was drastically worse in the playoffs and looked like most expected him to in the regular season. Pavelski is always huge for them. Those guys don't need to carry but they need to have an impact. Duchene/Seguin as well.

Even if they all regress a little bit it'll hurt. They are way past 30 at this point as well. They were also very healthy last year. They'll have risks just like Colorado.
 
ANewHope said:
I agree they have good young talent but if a few of those guys fall off this year they'll feel it big time. Someone like Benn IMO was drastically worse in the playoffs and looked like most expected him to in the regular season. Pavelski is always huge for them. Those guys don't need to carry but they need to have an impact. Duchene/Seguin as well.

Even if they all regress a little bit it'll hurt. They are way past 30 at this point as well. They were also very healthy last year. They'll have risks just like Colorado.
Click to expand...

The difference is none of those guys are expected or relied upon to drive the bus anymore.

It's Hintz/Robertson/Heiskanen/Oettinger's team at this point. So long as those guys can be decent secondary providers they'll still be good.

With the Avs, we're a couple years away from them in terms of the older core... But you look at our forwards in particular and nobody is young anymore.
 
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Pierce Hawthorne said:
The difference is none of those guys are expected or relied upon to drive the bus anymore.

It's Hintz/Robertson/Heiskanen/Oettinger's team at this point. So long as those guys can be decent secondary providers they'll still be good.

With the Avs, we're a couple years away from them in terms of the older core... But you look at our forwards in particular and nobody is young anymore.
Click to expand...

Benn/Seguin are still making like 9+ mill a year. Them regressing hard would be a huge hit. Benn was literally 2nd on the team in points last year and Pavelski was one of there better players in the playoffs. They don't have to drive the bus but they certainly need to produce.

Benn is 34, Pavelsk 39, Seguin 32, Duchene 33 by the time the playoffs roll around so I don't think the older core is comparable to us in anyway. Especially if you count Makar/Byram.

Hintz is turning 27 tho. I think some people think he's younger than he is. He's the same age as Mikko, 1 year older than MacKinnon. Makar is the same age as Robertson/Miro. Byram younger. I 100% agree they have more depth/youth tho and could withstand age regression better than the Avs. Still some age regression risk for Dallas tho.
 
shadow1 said:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH][/TH]

[TH]Points (B)[/TH]
[TH]TOI (B)[/TH]
[TH]Points (A)[/TH]
[TH]TOI (A)[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Burakovsky[/TD]
[TD]25 (.32 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]11:08[/TD]
[TD]45 (.78 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]15:12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kadri[/TD]
[TD]44 (.60 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]16:11[/TD]
[TD]36 (.71 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]17:26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Donskoi[/TD]
[TD]37 (.46 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]13:25[/TD]
[TD]33 (.51 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]16:15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nichushkin[/TD]
[TD]10 (.18 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]11:15[/TD]
[TD]27 (.42 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]14:04[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Saad[/TD]
[TD]33 (.57 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]16:45[/TD]
[TD]24 (.55 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]14:05[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lehkonen[/TD]
[TD]38 (.51 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]15:06[/TD]
[TD]51 (.80 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]20:27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rodrigues[/TD]
[TD]43 (.52 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]15:50[/TD]
[TD]39 (.57 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]17:51[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Johansen[/TD]
[TD]28 (.51 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]15:46[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colton[/TD]
[TD]32 (.40 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]12:21[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wood[/TD]
[TD]27 (.36 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]12:06[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Drouin[/TD]
[TD]29 (.50 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]14:54[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

B = Season before joining Colorado
A = 1st season with Colorado

On average, the forwards the Avalanche have added have seen an increase of +2:14 (ATOI) and +0.17 (PPG). Brandon Saad is the only outlier, and even then his productivity was a wash despite a big decrease in ice time.

Anyone else curious how the blank cells will look in a year?
Click to expand...

Forgive me if I got your point wrong about ATOI, but this is kind of a chicken/egg argument regarding ice time and performance and IMO it's pretty clear that performance comes before and drives the ice time.

In general, ice time is just an indicator of how well a player is playing. If they're playing well they get more ice time. If they're not they get less. So the increase in ice time in Colorado is just further proof IMO that they played better in Colorado, and usually underperformed in prior seasons.

Usually only players capable of scoring that way get a boost from the extra ice time. If they're not capable the extra time just makes them look worse.

Bednar doesn't really give players ice time unless they earn it either. Maybe a a few games to try someone in a bigger role, but they don't last there long if they're not cutting it.

Goals and points per minute can also be notoriously misleading stats. It's entirely too team and score dependent.

You can have a whole bunch of ice time, but your team is up 2-3 goals, so you don't try as hard to score as you would with less ice time but the score tied or you're trailing. This is going to heavily impact the numbers and vary wildly from the best to worst teams.

You can have your ATOI boosted with a bunch of PP time, when your team has a bad power play, and never scores.

You can have your ATOI boosted by your coach making you a penalty killer where you are very unlikely to score during those extra minutes.

You can have your ATOI boosted by getting promoted to the top 6 or top line due to injuries, but not score as much as those roles might expect, because you're not actually a top six or top line player.

And actually I would bet part of the reason there was a boost in ice time on the Avs was because they were in fact covering for other players that were injured. Avs always have a ton of injuries, and all those guys listed would have been the first to move up.

You can also just use the eye test and look at how all those guys played on Avs, versus off, and see that they played much better on the Avs. You can also just look how they were viewed by fans on and off the Avs.

Saad, Burakovksy, and Val were all whipping boys on their prior teams, while Donskoi was after leaving. Habs fans are jealous they never got this Lehkonen in Montreal. And ERod wasn't able to get the deal he just got prior to being with the Avs.
 
Bill Peckerskull said:
Click to expand...


giphy.gif
 
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One thing about Dallas last season was the number of OTLs they had. They were tied for 2nd at 14. It could really go both ways for them especially with a few of their players getting older. They win ahalf of those OT games and they could finish 1st in the division. However they lose half of those in regulation instead and their season doesn't look as good.

For me the danger with Dallas comes from their goalie. If Ott plays the way he is capable of they could be very hard to beat in the playoffs.
 
0BGYN Kenobi said:
The Avs should have just signed JTC instead of getting Johansen. That way everyone would agree that we're screwed instead of bickering over the impact of a player that hasn't even played for us yet
Click to expand...
JTC is the 3rd liner, either a c or a winger. Johansen is a top 2 line valid center.
 
0BGYN Kenobi said:
The Avs should have just signed JTC instead of getting Johansen. That way everyone would agree that we're screwed instead of bickering over the impact of a player that hasn't even played for us yet
Click to expand...

If only we lived in a world where this place wouldn't bicker if they resigned Compher. Especially after watching Johansen get traded somewhere for free with a $1.1M lower cap hit.
 
Foppa2118 said:
That would be a great deal for the Avs. I think Toews might want a longer deal than that though.

Dunn can do it because he can perhaps get another big contract with a much bigger cap, when he'll be 30 in the final year of that deal. Devon will be 30 in the final year of his current deal.
Click to expand...

I think for sure he would want long-term.

Whether short or long, he’ll also want and deserve more than Dunn.
 
Colorado is going to be a tough team to play against next season.

You’re talking about having Lehkonen, Nichushkin, Wood/Colton on three separate lines. That puts a lot of pressure on other teams. Imo, McFarland, Sakic, and Bednar have identified what they were lacking last season and adjusted

Last years team was terribly mismanaged. They basically played shorthanded all year because they were expecting Landeksog to come back. This year they’ll actually be able to fill out the roster.
 
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NorthernAvsFan said:
Colorado is going to be a tough team to play against next season.

You’re talking about having Lehkonen, Nichushkin, Wood/Colton on three separate lines. That puts a lot of pressure on other teams. Imo, McFarland, Sakic, and Bednar have identified what they were lacking last season and adjusted

Last years team was terribly mismanaged. They basically played shorthanded all year because they were expecting Landeksog to come back. This year they’ll actually be able to fill out the roster.
Click to expand...
And let's not forget Cogs and LOC on the 4th line. They are also puck hound.
 
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Avs_19 said:
I think for sure he would want long-term.

Whether short or long, he’ll also want and deserve more than Dunn.
Click to expand...

Yeah I was wondering a bit about that after seeing his deal.

Dunn is coming off a 64 point season that Toews has never had and there's a decent chance the years in that contract with Dunn from age 26-30 will be better than the years from Toews next contract at 30+.

They bought up 3 UFA years in that four year deal too so it's somewhat comparable to Toews situation as a pending UFA. Which means their deals might be somewhat comparable.

Next season will obviously play a big part for Toews next contract, and now that I think about it, if they can't come to an agreement on an extension this summer, that may indicate Toews is banking on next year bringing him top dollar, which might price him out of Colorado anyway.
 
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shadow1 said:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH][/TH]

[TH]Points (B)[/TH]
[TH]TOI (B)[/TH]
[TH]Points (A)[/TH]
[TH]TOI (A)[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Burakovsky[/TD]
[TD]25 (.32 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]11:08[/TD]
[TD]45 (.78 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]15:12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kadri[/TD]
[TD]44 (.60 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]16:11[/TD]
[TD]36 (.71 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]17:26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Donskoi[/TD]
[TD]37 (.46 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]13:25[/TD]
[TD]33 (.51 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]16:15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nichushkin[/TD]
[TD]10 (.18 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]11:15[/TD]
[TD]27 (.42 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]14:04[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Saad[/TD]
[TD]33 (.57 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]16:45[/TD]
[TD]24 (.55 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]14:05[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lehkonen[/TD]
[TD]38 (.51 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]15:06[/TD]
[TD]51 (.80 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]20:27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rodrigues[/TD]
[TD]43 (.52 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]15:50[/TD]
[TD]39 (.57 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]17:51[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Johansen[/TD]
[TD]28 (.51 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]15:46[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colton[/TD]
[TD]32 (.40 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]12:21[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wood[/TD]
[TD]27 (.36 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]12:06[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Drouin[/TD]
[TD]29 (.50 ppg)[/TD]
[TD]14:54[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

B = Season before joining Colorado
A = 1st season with Colorado

On average, the forwards the Avalanche have added have seen an increase of +2:14 (ATOI) and +0.17 (PPG). Brandon Saad is the only outlier, and even then his productivity was a wash despite a big decrease in ice time.

Anyone else curious how the blank cells will look in a year?
Click to expand...

To be fair RyJo and Drouin aren’t entering prime years
 
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Good contract for a Devon re-up. He'll definitely get more but if Dunn is sniffing around the 8M mark Toews probably wants closer to 9. I think a 8Mx6 years would be nice, anything longer I'd want in the 7s. I can still see him giving a bit of a discount to stay on this team longterm given the situation
 
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