Rumor: 2023-2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Off-season is in full swing

[BaconNater]

I doubt the Leafs would, but if he's over the walk away, Leafs can simply let him go and then buyout Murray in the 2nd window. Might be the best cap situation for them honestly.

Now that would be interesting, I hate that I am like this but I enjoy Leafs/Oilers drama way too much

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Johansen = Seguin
Drouin < Pavelski
Lehkonen > Dadonov
Nichushkin > Duchene
Colton > Marchment
Wood > Dellandrea
Cogliano = Steel
Meyers < Faksa

What am I missing??? Our top end talent wipes the floor with theirs too. Dallas isn’t that good and have way too much money wrapped up in mediocre.

Well... The bolded are certainly debatable. Seguin just had 50 points in 76 games.

Also, if Mack>Hintz and Mikko>Robertson... Who do we have that then matches up against Benn, or Wyatt Johnston?

You conveniently left Dallas' 2nd leading scorer out of the equation and possibly there 2C next year.


They're clearly deeper on offense. We're clearly deeper on Defense. The question is what matters more and/or whos advantage is bigger. Goaltending for both is a bit up in the air.

Personally I think the Avs are better overall because of the top end talent. But Dallas is a good team and a Top ~6-8 team in the league, in a similar range to us at this point.

 

[Foppa2118]

You are skewing the data to make it fit your viewpoint. You're saying RyJo is better because over the years he was more consistent 60 pts guy. When he really has only had one good 60 pts season since 2019.

The last time RyJo out paced Kadri was 18-19, that's 5 seasons ago.

You can talk about throwing out outliers etc all you want but that still doesn't paint a picture of RyJo being better current day.

RyJo was better in the years 2012-2019, Kadri had been the better player the last 4 seasons, and honestly much better.

What RyJo did in his early to mid 20s isn't really relevant to the player he is today.

You can interpret the data however you want, but it doesn't really suggest that RyJo is better than Kadri current day. I think most on here would agree with me in saying Kadri is better today than RyJo and would take him 10 times out of 10 over RyJo.

Are you kidding me?

I post the actual stats showing Kadri has paced for 60+ points 3 times and scored 60+ twice, while Johansen has both paced and scored 60+ points six times, and you try to claim I'm skewing the data?

And you can keep bringing up this idea that these stats only represent Johansen from 4-5 seasons ago, but this is clearly dishonest when I've repeatedly pointed out he just put up 63 points two seasons ago.

Which you false claim was an outlier year. Talk about skewing the data to fit your narrative.

 

[Foppa2118]

Casually forgets to mention that the one outlier season of the last 4, in 2022, Ryjo shot an insanely unsustainable 22% (career 12% shooter), and had an insane 14% on-ice shooting % that year too.

Never seen someone spend so much time bending over backwards to defend a truly mediocre player.

Ok you guys really are straight up trolls aren't you? How many times do I need to show you that he put up more goals and points than his "outlier" year. By definition, 2022 was not an outlier year.

If you're not a troll, I've never seen someone spend so much time bending over backwards to make disingenuous arguments, just to be negative about everything, and stay miserable in life.

 

[Avaholic29]

Ok you guys really are straight up trolls aren't you? How many times do I need to show you that he put up more goals and points than his "outlier" year. By definition, 2022 was not an outlier year.

If you're not a troll, I've never seen someone spend so much time bending over backwards to make disingenuous arguments, just to be negative about everything, and stay miserable in life.

There is no way they are actual avs fans lol, swear to god they were nowhere to be found when the cup was won. Only come here to cry like children.

 

[nammerus]

There is no way they are actual avs fans lol, swear to god they were nowhere to be found when the cup was won. Only come here to cry like children.

No need to outright lie when you can just go through the message history. I was definitely bitching and moaning through the whole cup run.

 

[Balthazar]

I wonder how many people got scammed because someone guessed his password. Probably more than 1.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

We just don't know with RyJo. Dude has always had effort issues, but when he was on and giving a shit, he was a legit 1C. Does moving to the Avs get him to give a shit? Is his body capable enough at his age and with his injuries? It is a huge question mark. If he doesn't care, he could be completely healthy and still be a 30 point guy because he just doesn't care. If his body is done, no amount of him giving a shit matters. We just don't know.

I'm on the side that we will get the best out of him possible. I just have zero clue how good that player will be.

I vividly recall that maybe a little over a year ago you stated that when he gives a shit, RyJo is a top 10 center in the NHL. What made you change your mind so much since ?

 

[nammerus]

Ok you guys really are straight up trolls aren't you? How many times do I need to show you that he put up more goals and points than his "outlier" year. By definition, 2022 was not an outlier year.

If you're not a troll, I've never seen someone spend so much time bending over backwards to make disingenuous arguments, just to be negative about everything, and stay miserable in life.

If in 3 of your last 4 years, you average ~40 points in a season, a random 60 point season where you shot an unsustainable % is definitely an outlier year.

You do understand that as players age/injuries accumulate, that players can have a new baseline of production right? And that typically is lower then their previous baseline. Is it that difficult to comprehend that Ryjo has a new baseline now, supported by 3 of 4 years of terrible #2C production?

Or do you think players get better then they progress from their late 20's to their 30's? Maybe you should look at some age/production curves and take a look at what happens when players get older after 25-26. Big hint. They, on aggregate, don't get better.

 

[Balthazar]

Ok you guys really are straight up trolls aren't you? How many times do I need to show you that he put up more goals and points than his "outlier" year. By definition, 2022 was not an outlier year.

RyJo's last 4 seasons:

0.52 PPG
0.46 PPG
0.80 PPG with a very high, unsustainable, shooting %
0.51 PPG

You may not call it an outlier year but...yeah. I don't think we need to explain it further.

 

[Avaholic29]

If in 3 of your last 4 years, you average ~40 points in a season, a random 60 point season where you shot an unsustainable % is definitely an outlier year.

Or do you think players get better then they progress from their late 20's to their 30's? Maybe you should look at some age/production curves and take a look at what happens when players get older after 25-26. Big hint. They, on aggregate, don't get better.

You just praised Jamie Benn for doing this…. Undercover stars fan lmao

RyJo's last 4 seasons:

0.52 PPG
0.46 PPG
0.80 PPG with a very high, unsustainable, shooting %
0.51 PPG

You may not call it an outlier year but...yeah. I don't think we need to explain it further.

So Kadri all over again, nice!! That worked out well for the avs.

 

[nammerus]

You just praised Jamie Benn for doing this…. Undercover stars fan lmao

I never praised him. I called him dog shit.

But he can be dog shit, and still have significantly outproduced Ryjo over the last 4 years.

 

[Foppa2118]

I mean RyJo shot double his career shooting % in 21-22… That’s not necessarily sustainable. It’s looking like an outlier based on career trajectory though. Even if you take out Kadris outlier season and keep RyJo’s he’s averaged a higher points pace than RyJo(52.5 to 50.8) the last 5 seasons. The RyJo move has a ton of risk involved with it, even if I think there’s more upside with him. But that upside is far from a guarantee.

RyJo's last 4 seasons:

0.52 PPG
0.46 PPG
0.80 PPG with a very high, unsustainable, shooting %
0.51 PPG

You may not call it an outlier year but...yeah. I don't think we need to explain it further.

You can't call it an outlier year when he's put up the same or more points and goals before.

"Outlier: a statistical observation that is markedly different in value from the others of the sample"

You don't mark outlier years by shooting percentage you mark them by the end result. Goals or points being higher than normal like Kadri's season. Then you can look at shooting percentage as the cause if you want.

I think people underestimate the variance or randomness of shooting percentage anyway. RyJo shot 22% and put up 26 goals. He also shot 13 and 14% and put up 26 and 33 goals.

Burakovsky shot roughly 19% his first year in Colorado and put up 20 goals in 58 games. People talked about his shooting percentage being unsustainable. Then he shot roughly 19% again and put up 19 goals in 53 games.

Ross Colton shot roughly 20% his rookie season and had 9 goals in 30 games. Roughly a 25 goal pace. The next year he shot roughly 14% and put up 22 goals in 79 games, a 23 goal pace.

Leon Draisaitl has averaged roughly 19-22% in shooting percentage the last five years and had three 50+ goal seasons and a 40+ goal season in that time. Were those flukes?

Kadri's highest shooting percentage was roughly 18% in 2011-12 and scored at a 20 goal pace. The next year he shot at roughly 17% and scored at a 31 goal pace. A few seasons later he shot roughly 0.7% and scored at an 18 goal pace. Following year he shot roughly 14% and scored at a 32 goal pace. The following year he shot roughly 15% and scored at a 33 goal pace. In his outlier year in Colorado he shot roughly 11% and scored at a 32 goal pace.

It would obviously be a fool's errand to try and make some kind of causal link between Kadri's shooting percentage and his goal totals in his career.

Shooting percentage is heavily impacted by how much you shoot and we know RyJo has always been a guy criticized for not shooting enough.

And goals aren't his primary role anyway. He's a playmaker. His shooting percentage can drop into the teens, and he can put up 15-20 goals next year, but get 50-60 assists playing with Mikko on his wing, and we'd all call that a great season.

 

[Balthazar]

So Kadri all over again, nice!! That worked out well for the avs.

Except that in that case it already happened, so RyJo would be Calgary Kadri.

 

[shadow1]

	Points (B)	TOI (B)	Points (A)	TOI (A)
Burakovsky	25 (.32 ppg)	11:08	45 (.78 ppg)	15:12
Kadri	44 (.60 ppg)	16:11	36 (.71 ppg)	17:26
Donskoi	37 (.46 ppg)	13:25	33 (.51 ppg)	16:15
Nichushkin	10 (.18 ppg)	11:15	27 (.42 ppg)	14:04
Saad	33 (.57 ppg)	16:45	24 (.55 ppg)	14:05
Lehkonen	38 (.51 ppg)	15:06	51 (.80 ppg)	20:27
Rodrigues	43 (.52 ppg)	15:50	39 (.57 ppg)	17:51
Johansen	28 (.51 ppg)	15:46
Colton	32 (.40 ppg)	12:21
Wood	27 (.36 ppg)	12:06
Drouin	29 (.50 ppg)	14:54

B = Season before joining Colorado
A = 1st season with Colorado

On average, the forwards the Avalanche have added have seen an increase of +2:14 (ATOI) and +0.17 (PPG). Brandon Saad is the only outlier, and even then his productivity was a wash despite a big decrease in ice time.

Anyone else curious how the blank cells will look in a year?

 

[0BGYN Kenobi]

The Avs should have just signed JTC instead of getting Johansen. That way everyone would agree that we're screwed instead of bickering over the impact of a player that hasn't even played for us yet

 

[redacted]

I vividly recall that maybe a little over a year ago you stated that when he gives a shit, RyJo is a top 10 center in the NHL. What made you change your mind so much since ?

Weird how I’ve gotten a similar question twice today. Nothing has changed really. I’m not down on him, there are just reasonable questions. I still think RyJo has high level play in him. He’s older and is coming off another injury. So some regression is warranted. His effort is still a major question. We just don’t know how he jumps back or if he does. Not sure how people can’t recognize the risk. Yet, if he answers those questions with good answers… he’s a phenomenal player as he showed two seasons ago. If he’s regressed majorly and doesn’t give a shit, he’ll flame out.

 

[Foppa2118]

If in 3 of your last 4 years, you average ~40 points in a season, a random 60 point season where you shot an unsustainable % is definitely an outlier year.

You do understand that as players age/injuries accumulate, that players can have a new baseline of production right? And that typically is lower then their previous baseline. Is it that difficult to comprehend that Ryjo has a new baseline now, supported by 3 of 4 years of terrible #2C production?

Or do you think players get better then they progress from their late 20's to their 30's? Maybe you should look at some age/production curves and take a look at what happens when players get older after 25-26. Big hint. They, on aggregate, don't get better.

I'll post the stats for other Avalanche players again which preceded big point jumps in Colorado, that you conveniently ignored, along with their point totals in Colorado.

Weird how there's a whole bunch of "unsustainable outlier years" once they get to the Avs, according to your arbitrary 4-5 year time span.

Seasons Preceding and During Time With Colorado

Kadri

2015-16: 49 pt pace (45 points)
2016-17: 61 pt pace (61 points)
2017-18: 56 pt pace (55 points)
2018-19: 49 pt pace (44 points)

2019-20: 58 pt pace (36 points)
2020-21: 47 pt pace (32 points)
2021-22: 100 pt pace (87 points)

Burakovsky

2015-16: 39 pt pace (38 points)
2016-17: 45 pt pace (35 points)
2017-18: 37 pt pace (25 points)
2018-19: 27 pt pace (25 points)

2019-20: 64 pt pace (45 points)
2020-21: 68 pt pace (44 points)
2021-22: 63 pt pace (61 points)

Lehkonen

2018-19: 31 pt pace (31 points)
2019-20: 32 pt pace (27 points)
2020-21: 23 pt pace (13 points)
2021-22: 41 pt pace (29 points)

2021-22: 46 pt pace (9 points)
2022-23: 65 pt pace (51 points)

Nichuskin

2013-14: 35 pt pace (34 points)
2014-15: 10 pt pace (1 point)
2015-16: 30 pt pace (29 points)
2018-19: 14 pt pace (10 points)

2019-20: 34 pt pace (27 points)
2020-21: 32 pt pace (21 points)
2021-22: 69 pt pace (52 points)
2022-23: 73 pt pace (47 points)

 

[Freaky Styley]

It's going to come down to us or the Stars. And as it stands, I'd take the Stars center depth over the Kings.

Robertson- Hintz- Pavelski
Benn- Johnson- Duchene
Marchement- Seguin- Dadonov
Steel- Faska- Dellandrea

Suter - Heiskanen
Lindell - Hakanpaa
Harley - Lundkvist

Oettinger
Wedgewood

Thats about as good as it gets.

'As good as it gets' lol. There's very little about that lineup that frightens me on paper. But cudos for Suter for his years serving as a cap hindrance on multiple green filths

 

[BrickNHL]

'As good as it gets' lol. There's very little about that lineup that frightens me on paper. But cudos for Suter for his years serving as a cap hindrance on multiple green filths

Haakanpaa and Suter in your top 4 is the least scary thing in the world

 

[Foppa2118]

Except that in that case it already happened, so RyJo would be Calgary Kadri.

No it doesn't work that way. Johansen hasn't played for the Avs yet.

 

[Avsboy]

Dallas looks like the Western team to beat. That's a deep team with a highly capable goalie. Avs would be competitive but they'll be bandaged up

 

[ANewHope]

I don't get why people don't have age concerns about Dallas given all the talk about it on this board. Clearly everybody knows that it's Robertson's team and they have Miro/Johnston/Hintz etc. but Benn was second on the team in points last year, Pavelski 3rd, Seguin 6th. All played decent sized roles in the playoffs. Added Duchene.

They have lots of older players who take up alot of cap. Regression can hit. The second those guys take a step back even if the young guys are the ones driving everything it's alot of cap space to eat up. A huge part of why Dallas has been able to be successful IMO is because Benn/Seguin haven't been dragging them down and Pavelski refuses to age.

 

[GeoRox89]

Why are we now having a pissing match over Dallas’ status as a contender?

Regardless of who is better, the Avs wish they could pick players like Robertson, Johnston and Stankoven (think he ends up a wing in the NHL - there’s no way he’s even 5’7) in the late first and second round