Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 5

[Bartleby]

The penguins were good and a playoff team and they drafted Jake GUENTZEL in 2013 in round 3

First of all, the discussion was about JBB's tenure and the posters specific criticism of him, not about the whole history of the NHL. And of course there have been good players drafted in late rounds by good teams, but it's very rare.

 

[T REX]

First of all, the discussion was about JBB's tenure and the posters specific criticism of him, not about the whole history of the NHL. And of course there have been good players drafted in late rounds by good teams, but it's very rare.

Yzerman would draft Nikita Kucherov(2nd), Andrei Vasilevskiy(1st), Brayden Point(3rd), Ondřej Palát(7th), Anthony Cirelli(3rd) and signed undrafted players Tyler Johnson and Yanni Gourde.

Has JBB done anything close to this(drafting)?

 

[Sky04]

Yzerman would draft Nikita Kucherov(2nd), Andrei Vasilevskiy(1st), Brayden Point(3rd), Ondřej Palát(7th), Anthony Cirelli(3rd) and signed undrafted players Tyler Johnson and Yanni Gourde.

Has JBB done anything close to this(drafting)?

Did Yzerman win any cups yes or no? Has he won any is Detroit as a GM? His team hasn't even made the playoffs yet

Also drafting is easier when the focus isn't immediately on winning. Who did Yzerman draft in 2018 when the team was in win now or bust? Exactly.

Since joining Detroit Yzerman hasn't drafted single prospect out of a top-10 pick that's been relevant. Crazy eh? Did he forget how to draft?

 

[DFC]

Did Yzerman win any cups yes or no? Has he won any is Detroit as a GM? His team hasn't even made the playoffs yet

He did draft all the drafted players on our cup teams though, minus the ones who were here before him.

 

[Sky04]

He did draft all the drafted players on our cup teams though, minus the ones who were here before him.

Yeah "he" gets all the credit, so how come not single prospect outside of Raymond and Seider who were top 6 1st round picks have panned out in Detroit? Did he forget how to draft?

 

[DFC]

Yeah "he" gets all the credit, so how come not single prospect outside of Raymond and Seider who were top 6 1st round picks have panned out in Detroit? Did he forget how to draft?

No one is saying "all."

I don't know enough about Detroit's pool to know if anyone is on the way.

Our pool looks stone dead. Our prospects are usually given lots of time to cook cracking the NHL at 22 or 23, and I assume the same is true in Detroit. We don't seem to have any impact players on that path. Not sure about Detroit.

 

[Sky04]

No one is saying "all."

I don't know enough about Detroit's pool to know if anyone is on the way.

Our pool looks stone dead. Our prospects are usually given lots of time to cook cracking the NHL at 22 or 23, and I assume the same is true in Detroit. We don't seem to have any impact players on that path. Not sure about Detroit.

Yes that's what happens when your team graduates all their top prospects and goes into win-now mode. I'm not sure why any of you guys are surprised at this, are teams supposed to have top prospect pools after a decade (and still going) of cup contention?

Not a single franchise in the league has maintained a top prospect pool while contending in the cap era, being mad at JBB for that is silly. How is Pittsburgh's pool? Chicago's before they tore everything down? Those are the leagues model franchises and they were in the exact same position, the pool will replenish once Tampa's priority is building a future again, it's not right now.

 

[DFC]

Yes that's what happens when your team graduates all their top prospects and goes into win-now mode. I'm not sure why any of you guys are surprised at this, are teams supposed to have top prospect pools after a decade (and still going) of cup contention?

Well, you do kind of expect the odd one, even if you're team is winning. I'm not sure if JBB has drafted a single impact NHLer yet, or anyone who is on the path to be. It definitely appears to be a weakness.

 

[Bartleby]

Yzerman would draft Nikita Kucherov(2nd), Andrei Vasilevskiy(1st), Brayden Point(3rd), Ondřej Palát(7th), Anthony Cirelli(3rd) and signed undrafted players Tyler Johnson and Yanni Gourde.

Has JBB done anything close to this(drafting)?

Every player you list came to the Lightning prior to the championship window opening. Once that happens priorities change and player development and drafting takes a back seat to winning now. Now answer the question that actually speaks to reality that was asked previously, show us the top six skaters or top four dmen who were drafted by teams during their Cup contention years that are still on that team. We're waiting.

You want Cups, you want perfect cap control, you want to keep and develop every draft pick, you want to keep every superstar, you want to keep aging former superstars for sentimental reasons and so on and if a GM doesn't do all of that and more, and do it every year, then he (or she) is a failure in your mind.

 

[Outl4w]

JBB on his press conference after loosing at 1st round told pretty clear that he is accounting on SHeary, so I dont think he will be moved

If our coach and GM are counting on sheary to move this team forward; then we may as well trade everyone but sheary going all in for the tank.

 

[DFC]

Every player you list came to the Lightning prior to the championship window opening. Once that happens priorities change and player development and drafting takes a back seat to winning now. Now answer the question that actually speaks to reality that was asked previously, show us the top six skaters or top four dmen who were drafted by teams during their Cup contention years that are still on that team. We're waiting.

You want Cups, you want perfect cap control, you want to keep and develop every draft pick, you want to keep every superstar, you want to keep aging former superstars for sentimental reasons and so on and if a GM doesn't do all of that and more, and do it every year, then he (or she) is a failure in your mind.

I think this is just a false argument. Do teams hit on fewer picks in their cup window? Of course. They have fewer picks. But our number has dropped to ZERO.

Especially when you consider how many of our better players were mid and late rounders before. So the argument is we don't hit on the occasional 4th rounder now because the team in TB is trying to win a cup, so the scouts are preoccupied?

We aren't as good at drafting as we used to be. And that's OK. It's also entirely possible we got lucky between 2011 and 2017, and now we are getting equally unlucky. It doesn't make JBB a bad GM that our drafting in the mid rounds isn't as good as it used to be. We were never good in the early rounds.

 

[Bartleby]

I think this is just a false argument. Do teams hit on fewer picks in their cup window? Of course. They have fewer picks. But our number has dropped to ZERO.

Especially when you consider how many of our better players were mid and late rounders before. So the argument is we don't hit on the occasional 4th rounder now because the team in TB is trying to win a cup, so the scouts are preoccupied?

We aren't as good at drafting as we used to be. And that's OK. It's also entirely possible we got lucky between 2011 and 2017, and now we are getting equally unlucky. It doesn't make JBB a bad GM that our drafting in the mid rounds isn't as good as it used to be. We were never good in the early rounds.

Whether you believe it to be false or not, the fact remains that no other Cup team has any drafted players in their top six or top four either, and that was the original idea posted which I was responding too. It doesn't happen is the point, and it's a point that you agree with in the second sentence of your first paragraph for the obvious reasons.

Let's hope our most recent "first round pick", Conor Geekie, turns out to be a keeper. It's only on paper at this point but that was a nice piece of business by JBB.

 

[T REX]

Every player you list came to the Lightning prior to the championship window opening. Once that happens priorities change and player development and drafting takes a back seat to winning now. Now answer the question that actually speaks to reality that was asked previously, show us the top six skaters or top four dmen who were drafted by teams during their Cup contention years that are still on that team. We're waiting.

You want Cups, you want perfect cap control, you want to keep and develop every draft pick, you want to keep every superstar, you want to keep aging former superstars for sentimental reasons and so on and if a GM doesn't do all of that and more, and do it every year, then he (or she) is a failure in your mind.

false! Never said any of your claims. Ever. I have been very consistent in my criticism over the years. Short term plan and long term plans.

JBB has always had blinders on. It was great when we win. Now? Not so much. I have always advocated for more of a mix because we had younger studs. What do not understand?

I think this is just a false argument. Do teams hit on fewer picks in their cup window? Of course. They have fewer picks. But our number has dropped to ZERO.

Especially when you consider how many of our better players were mid and late rounders before. So the argument is we don't hit on the occasional 4th rounder now because the team in TB is trying to win a cup, so the scouts are preoccupied?

We aren't as good at drafting as we used to be. And that's OK. It's also entirely possible we got lucky between 2011 and 2017, and now we are getting equally unlucky. It doesn't make JBB a bad GM that our drafting in the mid rounds isn't as good as it used to be. We were never good in the early rounds.

MIC DROP!!!!!!!

 

[Bartleby]

false! Never said any of your claims. Ever. I have been very consistent in my criticism over the years. Short term plan and long term plans.

You don't have to say them. They are implicit in everything you post. If JBB had done everything the way you have written about we would have more Cups, better cap control, a better mix of old and young, Stamkos would still be here and on and on.

There are only perfect plans from those who have no actual stake in the game.

 

[DFC]

Whether you believe it to be false or not, the fact remains that no other Cup team has any drafted players in their top six or top four either, and that was the original idea posted which I was responding too. It doesn't happen is the point, and it's a point that you agree with in the second sentence of your first paragraph for the obvious reasons.

Let's hope our most recent "first round pick", Conor Geekie, turns out to be a keeper. It's only on paper at this point but that was a nice piece of business by JBB.

? In what time frame? Cup teams don't draft a top sixer within 5 years of a cup? How about top 9? How about just an NHL regular for a full season?

And how far back are we going with this? Because it seems kind of insane that its impossible to draft NHLers if you win a cup. What if you make a final? We drafted Cirelli after making a final. Point directly before.

Whether you believe it to be false or not, the fact remains that no other Cup team has any drafted players in their top six or top four either, and that was the original idea posted which I was responding too. It doesn't happen is the point, and it's a point that you agree with in the second sentence of your first paragraph for the obvious reasons.

Let's hope our most recent "first round pick", Conor Geekie, turns out to be a keeper. It's only on paper at this point but that was a nice piece of business by JBB.

 

[Crunchrulz]

In utter shame I concede that you are correct. My bad.

All good. Even the old dog gets fortunate very occasionally. Have an awesome rest of your weekend.

 

[Crunchrulz]

What folks seem to fail to realize is that if the Lightning fire either Cooper or JBB, he would have another job at the NHL level within the week if he wanted one.

The success that both Cooper and JBB have had, regardless of who did what, is exactly the kind of success that every team in sports seeks. Two consecutive championship titles and three straight Finals appearances in the last five years are goals that every organization and their fans set at the start of a season, but few manage to achieve.

Yes, the past two post seasons have been disappointing, however, the organization is making obvious efforts to improve. We need to give them the benefit of the doubt BEFORE we make a mistake and let either of them go.

 

[Felonious Python]

What folks seem to fail to realize is that if the Lightning fire either Cooper or JBB, he would have another job at the NHL level within the week if he wanted one.

The success that both Cooper and JBB have had, regardless of who did what, is exactly the kind of success that every team in sports seeks. Two consecutive championship titles and three straight Finals appearances in the last five years are goals that every organization and their fans set at the start of a season, but few manage to achieve.

Yes, the past two post seasons have been disappointing, however, the organization is making obvious efforts to improve. We need to give them the benefit of the doubt BEFORE we make a mistake and let either of them go.

But we're supposed to fixate on a window of time two years ago when we got Jeannot and gave Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak too much money.

 

[DFC]

What folks seem to fail to realize is that if the Lightning fire either Cooper or JBB, he would have another job at the NHL level within the week if he wanted one.

The success that both Cooper and JBB have had, regardless of who did what, is exactly the kind of success that every team in sports seeks. Two consecutive championship titles and three straight Finals appearances in the last five years are goals that every organization and their fans set at the start of a season, but few manage to achieve.

Yes, the past two post seasons have been disappointing, however, the organization is making obvious efforts to improve. We need to give them the benefit of the doubt BEFORE we make a mistake and let either of them go.

To be fair, I don't think more than one or two posters have outright called for either to be fired. Arguments don't always have to go to their extremes (best gm ever vs fire him).

I think we can see strengths and weaknesses. To me, it's been clear for a while that we don't draft as well as we used to. That doesn't mean JBB is awful or anything.

I think we have been caught up in the NHL trend of drafting size. Yzerman's strengths in his first half decade seemed to be in going against the grain. He drafted a lot of guys nobody wanted for one reason or another, and some of them turned into homeruns. I think the philosophy was always (even if we didn't use it) to draft skill and then trade it if we needed to fill other holes, because skill always has value.

 

[BeingTheThunder]

Hitting and missing on draft prospects involves a hell of a lot more than Stevie Y Vs. JBB. Anyway, I guess we’re all starving for some hockey and have to bitch about.

I saw someone touch on it earlier and I agree, think Stamkos being on a line with Cirelli was really detrimental for Cirelli. I really expect his offensive production to increase somewhat significantly. I mean, most players out of respect would defer to Stammer a lot in the O-zone. Not to mention Cirelli trying to pick up the slack defensively for Stamkos had to be draining. I fully expect Cirelli to have a better year all around. He’d better…

 

[Felonious Python]

To be fair, I don't think more than one or two posters have outright called for either to be fired. Arguments don't always have to go to their extremes (best gm ever vs fire him).

I think we can see strengths and weaknesses. To me, it's been clear for a while that we don't draft as well as we used to. That doesn't mean JBB is awful or anything.

I think we have been caught up in the NHL trend of drafting size. Yzerman's strengths in his first half decade seemed to be in going against the grain. He drafted a lot of guys nobody wanted for one reason or another, and some of them turned into homeruns. I think the philosophy was always (even if we didn't use it) to draft skill and then trade it if we needed to fill other holes, because skill always has value.

I feel that there isn't really a 'grain' right now in drafting. Analytics may have evened things out.

TB benefited off drafting Russians when there was fear of a 'Russian factor'. I'm more concerned with taking NCAA players.

Big players are also more skilled than ever before.


It's hard to say what made the Lightning so good with their lower round picks. Every success story has a different angle.

I've mentioned before that the Lightning may be better off going with a more analytical approach for the first few rounds, picking an obvious player, and then going for the gut feeling players later on.

 

[DFC]

I feel that there isn't really a 'grain' right now in drafting. Analytics may have evened things out.

TB benefited off drafting Russians when there was fear of a 'Russian factor'. I'm more concerned with taking NCAA players.

Big players are also more skilled than ever before.


It's hard to say what made the Lightning so good with their lower round picks. Every success story has a different angle.

I've mentioned before that the Lightning may be better off going with a more analytical approach for the first few rounds, picking an obvious player, and then going for the gut feeling players later on.

I think big players were valued when we drafted smaller players, and Russians. Then other teams followed our lead. We were just really ahead of the curve for about 5 years. Then, after the Pens went back-to-back with skilled teams, it was mainly bigger, tougher teams that won cups. We weren't overly big but we were a team full of psychopaths who would do anything to win.

Teams are clearly following that blueprint now, and I think it extends to drafting. But yeah, there's no flaw to exploit to stay ahead of the curve right now the way there was in 2011 (small finesse players, Russians).

That said, drafting 0 players who look like sure-bet NHLers (not even talking about star players or impact players) is hard to defend. I think we still have one of the best organizations in the NHL, but we don't draft well anymore.

 

[T REX]

You don't have to say them. They are implicit in everything you post. If JBB had done everything the way you have written about we would have more Cups, better cap control, a better mix of old and young, Stamkos would still be here and on and on.

There are only perfect plans from those who have no actual stake in the game.

So JBB is above reproach? He's free from criticism? Everything he does is perfect?

You are going so far to the extreme when my posts clearly preach a mix...we have 2 cups and epic memories.

I don't think it is lost on anyone that Yzerman handed him the keys to a Lambo. JBB made some great mods. No doubt. My question remains the same...look to the future and today. That's all. This isn't personal dude. Don't take it as such.

 

[Rschmitz]

Yeah "he" gets all the credit, so how come not single prospect outside of Raymond and Seider who were top 6 1st round picks have panned out in Detroit? Did he forget how to draft?

Are you serious? So drafting two franchise stars, and having at worst a top 5 prospect pipeline is a failure.

 

[JTBF81]

Based on his AAV, 60 points a year should be the benchmark for making him a good 2C IMO.
I still think what would be better for Tampa would be to trade him before his NTC kicks in (so either this offseason or the next one) and try to get a return similar to Sergachev's trade in term of pieces: younger NHL player with 2C potential signed at a lower AAV + good prospect.
That plus reinvesting part of the saved salary cap to bolster the lineup would make the retool complete and put Tampa to be still a contending team for years to come.

What I deeply regret in term of our retool is having missed out on Hanifin. With him signed long term instead of getting McDonagh from Nashville, we would have been set on D for the long term between him, JJ Moser Heddy and Cernak.

He doesn't have to hit 60 to make his contract worthwhile. Even in the 50-55 range, in addition to his defensive ability most seasons thus far, is more than enough. Even as is, he's only 750k or so overpaid, and.he was never taking less than 5.5 after a 4.8 bridge(given his play during the bridge).

Trading him is a.large mistake imo, as unlike with Serg, Tampa doesn't have the C depth to make Cirelli expendable. He's clearly being viewed as an integral core piece by management (as of nkw.anyway), and moving him for a far lesser return than what Serg got (which would more than likely be the case), damages the team's chances. They are not entering a re-build at this point in time, so trading him for a.so-so return does nothing to help them.

The 750k-1 million that he might be argued as being overpaid is also.doing little to.hamstring the team in terms of cap flexibility in signing other players; this is even more so now that the cap is once again increasing at a normal rate. It would, imo, take quite the down year for JBB to consider moving Cirelli before the NTC kicks in. And while that would undoubtedly be the cause of many on this forum to throw a party, it would also likely mean another poor result for the team this year, so I hope instead he takes a further step forward in his offensive game with either Hagel or Guentzel with him most of the time as he continues progressing towards his full potential offensively.