Based on his AAV, 60 points a year should be the benchmark for making him a good 2C IMO.
I still think what would be better for Tampa would be to trade him before his NTC kicks in (so either this offseason or the next one) and try to get a return similar to Sergachev's trade in term of pieces: younger NHL player with 2C potential signed at a lower AAV + good prospect.
That plus reinvesting part of the saved salary cap to bolster the lineup would make the retool complete and put Tampa to be still a contending team for years to come.
What I deeply regret in term of our retool is having missed out on Hanifin. With him signed long term instead of getting McDonagh from Nashville, we would have been set on D for the long term between him, JJ Moser Heddy and Cernak.
He doesn't have to hit 60 to make his contract worthwhile. Even in the 50-55 range, in addition to his defensive ability most seasons thus far, is more than enough. Even as is, he's only 750k or so overpaid, and.he was never taking less than 5.5 after a 4.8 bridge(given his play during the bridge).
Trading him is a.large mistake imo, as unlike with Serg, Tampa doesn't have the C depth to make Cirelli expendable. He's clearly being viewed as an integral core piece by management (as of nkw.anyway), and moving him for a far lesser return than what Serg got (which would more than likely be the case), damages the team's chances. They are not entering a re-build at this point in time, so trading him for a.so-so return does nothing to help them.
The 750k-1 million that he might be argued as being overpaid is also.doing little to.hamstring the team in terms of cap flexibility in signing other players; this is even more so now that the cap is once again increasing at a normal rate. It would, imo, take quite the down year for JBB to consider moving Cirelli before the NTC kicks in. And while that would undoubtedly be the cause of many on this forum to throw a party, it would also likely mean another poor result for the team this year, so I hope instead he takes a further step forward in his offensive game with either Hagel or Guentzel with him most of the time as he continues progressing towards his full potential offensively.