Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 5

[Sky04]

Vatrano has one of the best caphits for performance but that's still a huge package for a rental...

 

[Felonious Python]

Vatrano is still a left-handed shot. We have Kuch and Essy at RW who also shoot left.

We kind of need a righty.


I follow a ton of Twitter accounts, but Roger Hicks is only followed by Kevin Weekes. He doesn't pass the social check, IMO.

 

[JTBF81]

As long as Vatrano was coming with an extension, or the framework of one in place, a trade around Perbox, Gauthier, a late 2nd hopefully and a 4th for Vatrano retained isn't a bad deal. The 4th is very unlikely to ever contribute anything, Perbix is replaceable by either Crozier or having Moser play the right, a 2nd has mahbe a 1 in 3 chance of being a significant factor 3-4 years down the road, and while Gauthier looks to be an NHL player in another year, have to give to get a player of Vatrano's quality. I question the source of the leak, but value wise it probably isn't far off.

 

[OffBy1]

Before last year's 37 goal high, Vatrano hit 20 goals twice in a 10 year career, which is almost Cirelli level goal scoring, and his assist numbers are below Cirelli's. It sure looks like we'd be buying high.

We need another top six winger though and his cap number is good, but I fear the extension JBB might give him.

 

[JTBF81]

Based on his last 3 seasons of essentially .5 ppgx2 and .75 ppg last year, and with the cap continuing to rise, I would expect Vatrano's extension to be something in the range of 5 years with an aav at least 5.5. I could see him probably going no less than low 5's and around 6 on the higb end. I guess because of his most recent season a team might go 6 5ish, but unless he brings other impressive traits in his game, that seems a little high.

 

[DFC]

Seems like this isn't overly reliable?

 

[The Gongshow]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1813028481107960223

Another fake reporting/tweet.

Nothing to see here folks, move along

 

[DistantThunderRep]

The dream lives on. If that is the price for Vatrano though, I would suspect that price is equally appealing to Calgary for Kuzmenko. Plays both wings, can slot in from line 1 to line 3, shoots right. Problem will be re-signing Kuzmenko won't be cheap. Probably around $7M+.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

We need to draft the next Kuzmenko/Sharangovich. Or preferably draft/sign the next Hagel instead of having to give up multiple 1sts for.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

We need to draft the next Kuzmenko/Sharangovich. Or preferably draft/sign the next Hagel instead of having to give up multiple 1sts for.

Easier said than done. I am baffled by some posters who are having a tough time figuring out current success vs future success. You can't have both. Draft picks are all ways going to be mystery boxes, and we can use those mystery boxes to improve now with sure fire NHL'ers. We have a window to keep competing and that's until Vasy, Kuch, and Pointer age out. JBB and the organization is prioritizing winning now rather than later, which is fine considering.

Its insane to think that people are complaining we haven't hit the 1/1000 chance that we find a 30g scorer in later rounds? When we can turn around and use those picks to get a 20-30g scorer now instead of possibly in 3-5 years.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Easier said than done. I am baffled by some posters who are having a tough time figuring out current success vs future success. You can't have both. Draft picks are all ways going to be mystery boxes, and we can use those mystery boxes to improve now with sure fire NHL'ers. We have a window to keep competing and that's until Vasy, Kuch, and Pointer age out. JBB and the organization is prioritizing winning now rather than later, which is fine considering.

Its insane to think that people are complaining we haven't hit the 1/1000 chance that we find a 30g scorer in later rounds? When we can turn around and use those picks to get a 20-30g scorer now instead of possibly in 3-5 years.

Hopefully Howard and Gauthier turn into solid middle 6ers with the capability to be consistent 2nd liners. I know few of our prospects will likely become anything of substance, but it would be nice to get a few gems from our pool

 

[Felonious Python]

Easier said than done. I am baffled by some posters who are having a tough time figuring out current success vs future success. You can't have both. Draft picks are all ways going to be mystery boxes, and we can use those mystery boxes to improve now with sure fire NHL'ers. We have a window to keep competing and that's until Vasy, Kuch, and Pointer age out. JBB and the organization is prioritizing winning now rather than later, which is fine considering.

Its insane to think that people are complaining we haven't hit the 1/1000 chance that we find a 30g scorer in later rounds? When we can turn around and use those picks to get a 20-30g scorer now instead of possibly in 3-5 years.

I think most of us just miss fans of other teams posting 'they're going to be scary in a few years.'

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I think most of us just miss fans of other teams posting 'they're going to be scary in a few years.'

It would be nice to find at least another Ross Colton level contributor. I think Dylan Duke could surprise

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Hopefully Howard and Gauthier turn into solid middle 6ers with the capability to be consistent 2nd liners. I know few of our prospects will likely become anything of substance, but it would be nice to get a few gems from our pool

Yeah its totally a hope. But if trading Gauthier can get a Kuzmenko, you take that deal everyday of the week.

I think most of us just miss fans of other teams posting 'they're going to be scary in a few years.'

Even when we had a great prospect pool, people weren't saying that about us. No one looked at TJ, Palat, Killorn, Cirelli, Point, Koekkoek, Dotchin, Sustr, etc...and went "Yeah they are going to be scary in a few years". Our prospect pool since the times that people talk about is when the rest of the league was going "who the hell is this guy and where did they find him?" after debuting in the NHL.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

Easier said than done. I am baffled by some posters who are having a tough time figuring out current success vs future success. You can't have both. Draft picks are all ways going to be mystery boxes, and we can use those mystery boxes to improve now with sure fire NHL'ers. We have a window to keep competing and that's until Vasy, Kuch, and Pointer age out. JBB and the organization is prioritizing winning now rather than later, which is fine considering.

Its insane to think that people are complaining we haven't hit the 1/1000 chance that we find a 30g scorer in later rounds? When we can turn around and use those picks to get a 20-30g scorer now instead of possibly in 3-5 years.

I mostly agree but it’s certainly an advantage to have the cheaper contracts of the younger guys. If everyone on the team is making their market value, you’re not going to be a cup contender. Our window opened wide because we drafted well and had great players on the cheap. Now the only real bargain contract we have is Kuch since everyone has aged up and gotten paid.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Easier said than done. I am baffled by some posters who are having a tough time figuring out current success vs future success. You can't have both. Draft picks are all ways going to be mystery boxes, and we can use those mystery boxes to improve now with sure fire NHL'ers. We have a window to keep competing and that's until Vasy, Kuch, and Pointer age out. JBB and the organization is prioritizing winning now rather than later, which is fine considering.

Its insane to think that people are complaining we haven't hit the 1/1000 chance that we find a 30g scorer in later rounds? When we can turn around and use those picks to get a 20-30g scorer now instead of possibly in 3-5 years.

My preference would be good both now and in the future. That requires drafting well and then developing those players once they sign and enter Syracuse &/or Tampa. Can't give away picks and prospects forever. Just delays the inevitable and means the teardown and rebuild will take longer.

 

[Felonious Python]

Hire Joe Pavelski as a skills coach, have him at camp, and just let the bug get to him.

Either the hockey playing bug, or T-bug. Either works.

 

[The Gongshow]

Easier said than done. I am baffled by some posters who are having a tough time figuring out current success vs future success. You can't have both. Draft picks are all ways going to be mystery boxes, and we can use those mystery boxes to improve now with sure fire NHL'ers. We have a window to keep competing and that's until Vasy, Kuch, and Pointer age out. JBB and the organization is prioritizing winning now rather than later, which is fine considering.

Its insane to think that people are complaining we haven't hit the 1/1000 chance that we find a 30g scorer in later rounds? When we can turn around and use those picks to get a 20-30g scorer now instead of possibly in 3-5 years.

A boats a boat, but the mystery box could be anything.....it could even be a boat!

A Hages a Hagel, but the 1st round pick could be anything....it could even be a Hagel...in 4 years..

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I mostly agree but it’s certainly an advantage to have the cheaper contracts of the younger guys. If everyone on the team is making their market value, you’re not going to be a cup contender. Our window opened wide because we drafted well and had great players on the cheap. Now the only real bargain contract we have is Kuch since everyone has aged up and gotten paid.

Market value is subjective now because of the years of stagnant cap. We used those exact same picks and prospects to flush out our roster to win the cup. Finding value contracts like Goodrow, Coleman, Shattenkirk, to a certain extent Savard. The goal is still the Cup, and they are leveraging assets to get there again. Like if we have another year where we don't get a decent call up, might as well sell high on them before the rest of league catches on.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

My preference would be good both now and in the future. That requires drafting well and then developing those players once they sign and enter Syracuse &/or Tampa. Can't give away picks and prospects forever. Just delays the inevitable and means the teardown and rebuild will take longer.

Preparing for both is damn near impossible. This isn't a video game where both possibilities can exist. To be a contender, you need to be able to compete at the NHL level with NHL players. To get those players you have to use your picks and prospects. If one or two of your prospects can step in, great, but that shouldn't be your plan from the start. It just sets up to be a wildcard middling team. There is a shelf life on Hedman, Vasy, Kuch, and Pointer right now. Focusing on trying to build a prospect pool while just trying to make the playoffs with them is pointless. I don't disagree that we need cheap contracts and the absolute ideal way to achieve this is to have prospects come up. But the problem is, there is no crystal ball on those prospects, and we need players now and not in 5 years.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Preparing for both is damn near impossible. This isn't a video game where both possibilities can exist. To be a contender, you need to be able to compete at the NHL level with NHL players. To get those players you have to use your picks and prospects. If one or two of your prospects can step in, great, but that shouldn't be your plan from the start. It just sets up to be a wildcard middling team. There is a shelf life on Hedman, Vasy, Kuch, and Pointer right now. Focusing on trying to build a prospect pool while just trying to make the playoffs with them is pointless. I don't disagree that we need cheap contracts and the absolute ideal way to achieve this is to have prospects come up. But the problem is, there is no crystal ball on those prospects, and we need players now and not in 5 years.

Then we should have drafted better in 2019 and 2020. That's the point. You have to do well every year. You have to sign under the radar valuable undrafted free agents.

 

[Felonious Python]

Then we should have drafted better in 2019 and 2020. That's the point. You have to do well every year. You have to sign under the radar valuable undrafted free agents.

If we had signed Sammy Walker and Cole Guttman, we'd have more depth at forward. Both have reached the NHL, although with other teams.


What's up with Dominik Kubalik? I haven't heard any rumors on him yet. He's a left shot, but the number of NHL top six right-handed RWs is relatively small.

Kubalik and Sprong have both been on the Wings in the past two years, and there's maybe no team that reflect the Lightning better than the Red Wings. Yzerman-JBB, Lalonde-Cooper

 

[Felonious Python]

He had a down year, but he's otherwise he's hit at least 15 goals every season.

 

[Todd1a]

It's not that I don't trust you Todd. I'm calling BS because we don't leak. Ever. The teams we trade with do and I don't see much sense in the Ducks doing that

If that is real that’s a bad over pay for a rental unless JBB has an extension worked out giving up gauthier wouldn’t be smart

 

[These Are The Days]

If that is real that’s a bad over pay for a rental unless JBB has an extension worked out giving up gauthier wouldn’t be smart

I'm not keen on moving any of our prospects. I'm not saying "Let the title window die for a guy like Gauthier" as much as if the goal *IS* to get faster and younger, then by all means do it. Pile up the bodies and get them ready to win a championship. Minus Hagel, we have an entire 2nd line that we need to construct. And if we're gonna roll with Kucherov deep into his 30's and count on him aging gracefully, then we need youth to buy us time. Right now we have a bunch of 20 year olds who haven't done anything impressive enough to warrant significant attention except for maybe Geekie. No half measures. If you want to build the future then do it

Sergachev returned an absolute haul. Imagine what we'd get for Cirelli. Joke is on the NHL. Going from Point to Cirelli as your 1-2 at center is like jumping off the Howard Frankland Bridge and hitting the water like a bug on a windshield.