Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 5

[DFC]

Assuming I counted correctly, since 2020 we have drafted 25 players past pick 100 and 8 before pick 100. None higher than 31. Exactly what did anyone think was going to happen to the pool? We have like 20 dudes picked between 112 and 200 something

Your math here is really deceiving, aside from not having any real 1st round picks. 8 picks between 31 and 100 is not that bad in 5 drafts.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

You do know that JBB was directly involved with the "golden era" of our pool right? Like he managed everything in Syracuse and was side by side with Yzerman during those drafts I doubt he just changed everything about what made that model successful. I'd lean towards the success being good strategy during that time and most of it is luck. Considering Yzerman has yet to to churn out a late round gem since going to Detroit I'd say that's exactly the case unless you think he completely changed the way he drafted also.

Going through the size of some of the more recent drafts and comparing it to the ones from before and they look - the same? We're still taking plenty 5'9-5'11 skill players, likewise it's not like they didn't take sized players during the Yzerman years either.

Also it's not like every team is just going to ignore how Tampa or other good drafting teams draft, they're going to take note and apply the same strategies which is probably a bigger reason why "BPA's" are falling in quality in the later rounds - they aren't being ignored anymore.



"I need everyone to be Ross Colton who became a full time NHLer at age 25 to be doing the same at 22 or younger" lmao what?

Colton started in the NCAA at a later age and was obviously a different time frame of prospect than the norm. I need a couple new young guys to come in every season and get games. Hopefully we get a couple this year.

Where is our prowspect pool ranked, currently? Besides Howard and Geekie do we have any project top 6 players?

I think we all already know once the ship sails in 2 - 3 years it's gonna be a long and brutal rebuild via draft anyways. They'll need to almost start over anyways and hopefully draft another corner stone dman, center and goalie

Duke should be a middle 6er if he makes it. We'll see about Huuhtanen

 

[DistantThunderRep]

29.2 avg.

We have 3 years. By then:
Kuch - 34
Point- 31
Vasy - 32
Hedman - 36 (retiring a year later

In 3 years if the team doesn't have a group of younger guys stepping up like Palat, Johnson, Kuch wave OR the Point, Cirelli wave the team will be even more like the Capitals and Penguins. Not enough for playoffs. JBB is said to be ruthless, what stops him from shipping out players after 3 years.

So exactly the 3-4 years of competitive team we are talking about? And you think Kuch, Point, and Vasy are going to fall off a cliff in 3 years? In their Early 30's? Like What? So what is the problem? We are pushing hard for those 3-4 years with NHL players. If 2-3 of our prospects in the next 3-4 years can make the jump, thats great. But to expect them be drafting a Point or Cirelli is unrealistic. To expect a young top producer, well we'd have to tank to find those in early first rounds. We can't be competitive and push for another cup and also bringing up prospects to try them out? We might get one or two who are leaps above the rest, but that is a rare case and not the norm.

 

[Felonious Python]

Palat - 7th round, Kase - 7th round, Kubalik - 7th round

Are Czechs just underrated?

 

[T REX]

So, now we were just "lucky" under Yzerman? JBB is "unlucky"?

Somebody get him a rabbit's foot fast.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

So, now we were just "lucky" under Yzerman? JBB is "unlucky"?

Somebody get him a rabbit's foot fast.

Al Murray was better in years past, wasn't as good as time went on.

Has very little to do with Yzerman and BriseBois. GMs only do much work on the 1st round picks and maybe some work on 2nd round.

 

[ccman68]

i think brayden point really broke a lot of people’s brains here about how drafting works. even if you get a late round steal it’s gonna take years for them to become nhl players for the most part.

our 2018-2019 drafts are probably failures. one of those is yzerman and one of them is jbb. every draft after that is too soon to tell.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

i think brayden point really broke a lot of people’s brains here about how drafting works. even if you get a late round steal it’s gonna take years for them to become nhl players for the most part.

our 2018-2019 drafts are probably failures. one of those is yzerman and one of them is jbb. every draft after that is too soon to tell.

Except neither of those guys did much of the work on most of the picks made in those drafts, as I alluded to above. Blame amateur scouting, which would be Al Murray and his regional scouts.

 

[ccman68]

Except neither of those guys did much of the work on most of the picks made in those drafts, as I alluded to above. Blame amateur scouting, which would be Al Murray and his regional scouts.

true but according to certain people here i’m just making excuses for jbb when saying that the scouts are the ones actually making the picks

 

[Hockeyville USA]

true but according to certain people here i’m just making excuses for jbb when saying that the scouts are the ones actually making the picks

The issue I have, and this is plausible, is that we continue to pick too many guys out of the Q, likely because BriseBois is from Quebec, even though the Q has fallen off a cliff in terms of producing quality NHLers since the turn of the century. I said it in a previous post, if Ethan Gauthier is better than Riley Heidt and Andrew Cristall in the NHL, I'll gladly eat crow, but I have a lot of doubt that that will be the outcome.

 

[Peacefool]

Yeah I know Kuzy most likely will go to SKA, but uuuf I wanted him here at tdl,and still want him here

 

[Felonious Python]

i think brayden point really broke a lot of people’s brains here about how drafting works. even if you get a late round steal it’s gonna take years for them to become nhl players for the most part.

our 2018-2019 drafts are probably failures. one of those is yzerman and one of them is jbb. every draft after that is too soon to tell.

Brayden Point defies logic. Skating was seen as a bit of a weakness when he was drafted.

It's not like he got some advanced coaching and became adequate at it. He became an absolute burner, and the standard to which every player in the organization is compared.

 

[Felonious Python]

The issue I have, and this is plausible, is that we continue to pick too many guys out of the Q, likely because BriseBois is from Quebec, even though the Q has fallen off a cliff in terms of producing quality NHLers since the turn of the century. I said it in a previous post, if Ethan Gauthier is better than Riley Heidt and Andrew Cristall in the NHL, I'll gladly eat crow, but I have a lot of doubt that that will be the outcome.

The QMJHL isn't an issue. They still produce high end NHL players. If anything, it may be somewhat easier to scout talent since you can really focus on the top end guys.


I'd also have to look into it a bit more, but the Q gets pretty good imports. I suspect it may have something to do with Quebec being more 'European' than the rest of Canada. It's like how world-class soccer teams will loan a new signing from Brazil to a team in Portugal first. An easier landing pad.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

The QMJHL isn't an issue. They still produce high end NHL players. If anything, it may be somewhat easier to scout talent since you can really focus on the top end guys.

It's not like you have to make a judgement call on if Cliff Pu with the London Knights is going to make it.


I'd also have to look into it a bit more, but the Q also gets pretty good imports. I suspect it may have something to do with Quebec being more 'European' than the rest of Canada. It's like how world-class soccer teams will loan a new signing from Brazil to a team in Portugal first. An easier landing pad.

The Q is far far below the O and the Dub at this point. The Q has produced very few above average NHLers in recent years. People on the main forum have said that minor hockey in Quebec has completely collapsed because hockey has become too expensive and Quebec is much poorer than the other provinces, and as a result, more kids there are just playing football, soccer, basketball, resulting in minor hockey and junior hockey quality being worse in the province.

 

[Felonious Python]

The Q is far far below the O and the Dub at this point. The Q has produced very few above average NHLers in recent years. People on the main forum have said that minor hockey in Quebec has completely collapsed because hockey has become too expensive and Quebec is much poorer than the other provinces, and as a result, more kids there are just playing football, soccer, basketball, resulting in minor hockey and junior hockey quality being worse in the province.

Who are all these guys we've drafted out of the Q?

Golicic (import), Gauthier, Gill, Cam MacDonald, Cajkovic (import), Fortier, Salda (import), Denis Yan (import), Mathieu Joseph, Somppi (import), and Imama seem to be all the guys since Drouin. Several of them being late round picks.

We have some French names like Jaydon Dureau, who played in the WHL, ABB was a free agent, Alex Gagne went NCAA, Christoper Paquette played OHL, Max Crozier went NCAA, etc.

Peter Abbandonato and Jimmy Huntington were AHL free agent deals, IIRC.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Who are all these guys we've drafted out of the Q?

Golicic (import), Gauthier, Gill, Cam MacDonald, Cajkovic (import), Fortier, Salda (import), Denis Yan (import), Mathieu Joseph, Somppi (import), and Imama seem to be all the guys since Drouin. Several of them being late round picks.

We have some French names like Jaydon Dureau, who played in the WHL, ABB was a free agent, Alex Gagne went NCAA, Christoper Paquette played OHL, Max Crozier went NCAA, etc.

Peter Abbandonato and Jimmy Huntington were AHL free agent deals, IIRC.

Gauthier, Gill, MacDonald, Cajkovic, Fortier being the obvious ones. If Gauthier can become a good player, then that's a positive, just wasn't a fan of taking him ahead of Cristall and Heidt

 

[These Are The Days]

Your math here is really deceiving, aside from not having any real 1st round picks. 8 picks between 31 and 100 is not that bad in 5 drafts.

It's not meant to be deceiving as much as so many here have some massive bone to pick over our drafting and development. Again, I suggest they look at when these players were picked. What has happened to our prospect pool is about as shocking as getting wet if you jumped into a pool. I mean... if you want some high quality goal post moving, one can say the Lightning average 1 player picked by 100 in the last 4 drafts becuase 4 of those 8 picks you mentioned were from the 2020 draft alone.

At this point the Lightning hive mind is just bickering for the sake of bickering becuase we managed to find a Point, Cirelli and Kucherov. Yeah. It is hard to find even another one now because everyone has been trying to copycat the Lightning draft strategy for like 7 years now

You cross your fingers and hope a Groshev or Duke figures it out. I'm not betting on it and I'm not gonna be upset if it doesn't work out

 

[Hockeyville USA]

It's not meant to be deceiving as much as so many here have some massive bone to pick over our drafting and development. Again, I suggest they look at when these players were picked. What has happened to our prospect pool is about as shocking as getting wet if you jumped into a pool. I mean... if you want some high quality goal post moving, one can say the Lightning average 1 player picked by 100 in the last 4 drafts becuase 4 of those 8 picks you mentioned were from the 2020 draft alone.

At this point the Lightning hive mind is just bickering for the sake of bickering becuase we managed to find a Point, Cirelli and Kucherov. Yeah. It is hard to find even another one now because everyone has been trying to copycat the Lightning draft strategy for like 7 years now

You cross your fingers and hope a Groshev or Duke figures it out. I'm not betting on it and I'm not gonna be upset if it doesn't work out

Then we have to identify an undrafted free agent and develop them in Syracuse like we did with Johnson. Or take someone else's used goods (Marchessault, Verhaeghe) and develop them, and then not give them away.

 

[DFC]

It's not meant to be deceiving as much as so many here have some massive bone to pick over our drafting and development. Again, I suggest they look at when these players were picked. What has happened to our prospect pool is about as shocking as getting wet if you jumped into a pool. I mean... if you want some high quality goal post moving, one can say the Lightning average 1 player picked by 100 in the last 4 drafts becuase 4 of those 8 picks you mentioned were from the 2020 draft alone.

At this point the Lightning hive mind is just bickering for the sake of bickering becuase we managed to find a Point, Cirelli and Kucherov. Yeah. It is hard to find even another one now because everyone has been trying to copycat the Lightning draft strategy for like 7 years now

You cross your fingers and hope a Groshev or Duke figures it out. I'm not betting on it and I'm not gonna be upset if it doesn't work out

I think it's more like we haven't found a paquette or even a Mathieu Joseph. We have drafted zero NHL regulars, or guys who look better than a coin flip to make it.

 

[Felonious Python]

Then we have to identify an undrafted free agent and develop them in Syracuse like we did with Johnson. Or take someone else's used goods (Marchessault, Verhaeghe) and develop them, and then not give them away.

Connor Roulette wasn't signed by Dallas.

Conner Roulette

June 2023 - The Stars will reportedly not sign Roulette by the signing deadline and he will become a UFA. Pat Quinn June 2022 – On a skilled Seattle Thunderbirds team, Roulette has been very noticeable. Seldom held off the scoresheet, he scored just over a point-per-game, with 24 goals and...

dobberprospects.com

 

[These Are The Days]

Then we have to identify an undrafted free agent and develop them in Syracuse like we did with Johnson. Or take someone else's used goods (Marchessault, Verhaeghe) and develop them, and then not give them away.

Guys who pan out like that are a little rare to begin with and it's crazy we found that many guys to begin with and we somehow managed to get them on our team. You gotta remember, these are guys no one else would take a chance on. And for a Tyler Johnson, do you bet on yourself on a team like the Sharks? Or do you come to Tampa where you know damn well they're gonna make you pay tribute to Syracuse for 2 years?

As for everything else. Jon Cooper is Who he is. That's why the guys like Verhaeghe and Marchessault got traded. I don't think that's gonna change after 4 trips to the Finals and winning 2 Cups

 

[DFC]

Al Murray was better in years past, wasn't as good as time went on.

Has very little to do with Yzerman and BriseBois. GMs only do much work on the 1st round picks and maybe some work on 2nd round.

This is false. Al Murray told Craig Button (jokingly) that he would have been fired if the team didn't get Brayden Point.

Not saying GMs make every selection personally, but they definitely keep up. We saw Point for the first time on a trip to scout Morgan Reilly. So the GM indeed was going to look at a 1st round pick, but then definitely had a hand in the 3rd round because of a player he wanted.

 

[These Are The Days]

I think it's more like we haven't found a paquette or even a Mathieu Joseph. We have drafted zero NHL regulars, or guys who look better than a coin flip to make it.

I wholeheartedly agree with you. For me it's just pointing out that a lot of teams are copying us and we are often picking through leftovers. Idk. I just am not upset we haven't found those guys. I'd like us to but it's getting harder and harder. Especially with the Q declining as much as it has. Especially when you consider that's where we found Joseph and Paquette to begin with

 

[DFC]

I wholeheartedly agree with you. For me it's just pointing out that a lot of teams are copying us and we are often picking through leftovers. Idk. I just am not upset we haven't found those guys. I'd like us to but it's getting harder and harder. Especially with the Q declining as much as it has. Especially when you consider that's where we found Joseph and Paquette to begin with

I'm not upset we haven't found guys either. Just pointing out that it is the reality, for all the "yeah buts" as if we have never really found guys. It's not a disaster that we aren't drafting solid NHLers with regularity (or at all) right now, but it's the reality of the situation.

 

[These Are The Days]

I'm not upset we haven't found guys either. Just pointing out that it is the reality, for all the "yeah buts" as if we have never really found guys. It's not a disaster that we aren't drafting solid NHLers with regularity (or at all) right now, but it's the reality of the situation.

It's funny. Even by Lightning standards we are still doing okay. If we really want to get this upset over the last few years I wholeheartedly suggest they review our decade of drafting darkness from post Lecavalier to Stamkos. God I don't even want to bring up Edmonton trying to develop anyone who isn't a 1st rounder.

What we did when Yzerman took over is the stuff of legend that only really happens rarely. If that's all we get and a regression to the norm then hey, it was fun while it lasted