Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 5

[DistantThunderRep]

Then we should have drafted better in 2019 and 2020. That's the point. You have to do well every year. You have to sign under the radar valuable undrafted free agents.

You mean like Nolan Foote who got us Coleman? Or the following players from 2019 and 2020:

Jack Finley
Gage Concalves
Maxim Groshev
Jack Thompson
Eamon Powell
Maxwell Crozier
Mikhail Shalagin
Quinn Schmiemann

 

[Hockeyville USA]

You mean like Nolan Foote who got us Coleman? Or the following players from 2019 and 2020:

Jack Finley
Gage Concalves
Maxim Groshev
Jack Thompson
Eamon Powell
Maxwell Crozier
Mikhail Shalagin
Quinn Schmiemann

Alnefelt, Cajkovic, Finley, Goncalves, Groshev, Thompson, Schmidt mainly. So our 2019-2021 Drafts. Rounds 1-3 are where you need to find your hits. If you can pull NHLers or guys with legitimate asset pool value in the 4th round & beyond to use in trades (ex: Florida drafting Devon Levi in the 7th round in 2020 and then flipping him in 2021 in a package for Sam Reinhart) or get legitimate players, that's great work by the scouting staff. Gotta do better eventually, hopefully Goncalves and Groshev get chances soon

 

[Todd1a]

Alnefelt, Cajkovic, Finley, Goncalves, Groshev, Thompson, Schmidt mainly. So our 2019-2021 Drafts. Rounds 1-3 are where you need to find your hits. If you can pull NHLers or guys with legitimate asset pool value in the 4th round & beyond to use in trades (ex: Florida drafting Devon Levi in the 7th round in 2020 and then flipping him in 2021 in a package for Sam Reinhart) or get legitimate players, that's great work by the scouting staff. Gotta do better eventually, hopefully Goncalves and Groshev get chances soon

JBB flipped a 3rd rounder for Jake Guentzel lol does that count?

 

[DFC]

Easier said than done. I am baffled by some posters who are having a tough time figuring out current success vs future success. You can't have both. Draft picks are all ways going to be mystery boxes, and we can use those mystery boxes to improve now with sure fire NHL'ers. We have a window to keep competing and that's until Vasy, Kuch, and Pointer age out. JBB and the organization is prioritizing winning now rather than later, which is fine considering.

Its insane to think that people are complaining we haven't hit the 1/1000 chance that we find a 30g scorer in later rounds? When we can turn around and use those picks to get a 20-30g scorer now instead of possibly in 3-5 years.

I don't think we are trading mid rounders for the 30 goal scorers.

Nobody's really talking about a 30 goal scorer either. We are saying the drafting has definitely been worse, because it's been years since we have even seen a regular NHLer, or someone who looks like he can be.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I don't think we are trading mid rounders for the 30 goal scorers.

Nobody's really talking about a 30 goal scorer either. We are saying the drafting has definitely been worse, because it's been years since we have even seen a regular NHLer, or someone who looks like he can be.

Years? There is some serious hyperbole going here? If the benchmark is people who are NHL'ers than we have had plenty. The issue that's constantly being said is that we don't have people who can produce at the NHL level.

Alnefelt, Cajkovic, Finley, Goncalves, Groshev, Thompson, Schmidt mainly. So our 2019-2021 Drafts. Rounds 1-3 are where you need to find your hits. If you can pull NHLers or guys with legitimate asset pool value in the 4th round & beyond to use in trades (ex: Florida drafting Devon Levi in the 7th round in 2020 and then flipping him in 2021 in a package for Sam Reinhart) or get legitimate players, that's great work by the scouting staff. Gotta do better eventually, hopefully Goncalves and Groshev get chances soon

What? So I list a bunch of people from drafts that people here have hopes for and keep talking about from the years you talked about but you bring up some busts? Like ok....Is the expectation that we hit every single pick every time we make one?

 

[DFC]

Years? There is some serious hyperbole going here? If the benchmark is people who are NHL'ers than we have had plenty. The issue that's constantly being said is that we don't have people who can produce at the NHL level.


What? So I list a bunch of people from drafts that people here have hopes for and keep talking about from the years you talked about but you bring up some busts? Like ok....Is the expectation that we hit every single pick every time we make one?

Key word "Regular." And yes, years. The last one is Perbix, who, if I'm not mistaken, is a 2017 pick. We have seen a couple of guys become fringe NHLers. But as of now, not a single JBB is a sure-bet regular.

We just haven't drafted well. Part of that is because we haven't had as many picks as we had before. But part of it is just flat out we haven't drafted very well. It's entirely possible that we used to get lucky with mid and late round picks, and now our luck has run out. But whatever the case, we just haven't had any picks pan out to be more than a fringe NHLer in a long time.

 

[OffBy1]

Key word "Regular." And yes, years. The last one is Perbix, who, if I'm not mistaken, is a 2017 pick. We have seen a couple of guys become fringe NHLers. But as of now, not a single JBB is a sure-bet regular.

We just haven't drafted well. Part of that is because we haven't had as many picks as we had before. But part of it is just flat out we haven't drafted very well. It's entirely possible that we used to get lucky with mid and late round picks, and now our luck has run out. But whatever the case, we just haven't had any picks pan out to be more than a fringe NHLer in a long time.

What about Jack Thompson? But yeah... anyone else?

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Years? There is some serious hyperbole going here? If the benchmark is people who are NHL'ers than we have had plenty. The issue that's constantly being said is that we don't have people who can produce at the NHL level.


What? So I list a bunch of people from drafts that people here have hopes for and keep talking about from the years you talked about but you bring up some busts? Like ok....Is the expectation that we hit every single pick every time we make one?

Yes, the scouts' job is to pick players who become NHLers.

 

[These Are The Days]

Assuming I counted correctly, since 2020 we have drafted 25 players past pick 100 and 8 before pick 100. None higher than 31. Exactly what did anyone think was going to happen to the pool? We have like 20 dudes picked between 112 and 200 something

 

[Felonious Python]

Yes, the scouts' job is to pick players who become NHLers.

I don't think that's the expectation, but it is the intent.

There isn't really a formula to drafting. You're almost always going to let them develop under some other coaching staff for at least another year. Personality doesn't entirely matter, nor is it physical gifts. You need a mixture of both, and one, or both, may not be apparent at the time of the combine. Immature players can mature, but a 'mature' 18-year-old can also stay that way.

We talk about late picks, and Tom Brady was one, but people still make fun of his combine picture. Sam Bennett, a very high pick, couldn't do a single pull-up at the 2014 combine. Henrik Lundqvist, a late pick, was doubted by some because he was too good-looking to also be a great hockey player. (also what held me back, btw)


If we picked more analytical and internet scouting darlings, the perception (and expectations) of our prospect pool would be much higher.

 

[The Gongshow]

Where is our prowspect pool ranked, currently? Besides Howard and Geekie do we have any project top 6 players?

I think we all already know once the ship sails in 2 - 3 years it's gonna be a long and brutal rebuild via draft anyways. They'll need to almost start over anyways and hopefully draft another corner stone dman, center and goalie

 

[Felonious Python]

Where is our prowspect pool ranked, currently? Besides Howard and Geekie do we have any project top 6 players?

I think we all already know once the ship sails in 2 - 3 years it's gonna be a long and brutal rebuild via draft anyways. They'll need to almost start over anyways and hopefully draft another corner stone dman, center and goalie

I don't think it'll be 2-3 years. Point is 28, Hagel is still 25.

Hedman retiring will be a major pivot point, but teams like Vegas don't seem to have too much of an issue (and we were just in on Noah Hanifin).

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Where is our prowspect pool ranked, currently? Besides Howard and Geekie do we have any project top 6 players?

I think we all already know once the ship sails in 2 - 3 years it's gonna be a long and brutal rebuild via draft anyways. They'll need to almost start over anyways and hopefully draft another corner stone dman, center and goalie

How old do you think the team is?

Key word "Regular." And yes, years. The last one is Perbix, who, if I'm not mistaken, is a 2017 pick. We have seen a couple of guys become fringe NHLers. But as of now, not a single JBB is a sure-bet regular.

We just haven't drafted well. Part of that is because we haven't had as many picks as we had before. But part of it is just flat out we haven't drafted very well. It's entirely possible that we used to get lucky with mid and late round picks, and now our luck has run out. But whatever the case, we just haven't had any picks pan out to be more than a fringe NHLer in a long time.

Yeah but now we aren't arguing the same thing. If the argument is the scouts are making poor picks, thats one thing. But the argument is we aren't developing NHL talent because we don't have picks. Those are two different points.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Yes, the scouts' job is to pick players who become NHLers.

So is the argument now the scouts suck or are we shifting to that? The original point was we were trading our picks for people that are NHL'ers. But if the point is shifting to our scouts aren't doing their job or our development system isn't providing the same development as before, then sure, I guess. Kind of adds to the point then it would be better to sell our prospects and picks for current NHL'ers to make a push.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

How old do you think the team is?


Yeah but now we aren't arguing the same thing. If the argument is the scouts are making poor picks, thats one thing. But the argument is we aren't developing NHL talent because we don't have picks. Those are two different points.

We haven't drafted well, probably aren't developing quite as well as we once did, and we're not inserting enough youth into the lineup to give them actual NHL chances. Would have liked for Goncalves to have gotten an extended run last year, considering how flat we were for much of last season.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

We haven't drafted well, probably aren't developing quite as well as we once did, and we're not inserting enough youth into the lineup to give them actual NHL chances. Would have liked for Goncalves to have gotten an extended run last year, considering how flat we were for much of last season.

Maybe the reason is he's not as good as we think? I personally don't believe that. Here is the thing, the mentality here is that we are finished. The team sucks, blow it all up, and get started on rebuilding. This a hockey forum about future players and prospects. I get it. But the reality is, Tampa as a whole is still considered a Top 10 team for the cup according to Vegas odds. The team is going to push, and its going to take a 3 or 4 more years for that fall off to come.

 

[Sky04]

We haven't drafted well, probably aren't developing quite as well as we once did, and we're not inserting enough youth into the lineup to give them actual NHL chances. Would have liked for Goncalves to have gotten an extended run last year, considering how flat we were for much of last season.

Then maybe Goncalves should've done something at camp, he was unimpressive and wasn't a top-3 showing throughout camp and pre-season hence why they didn't go with him.

They gave Merela 20 games, ABB 36, Chaffee 30, Lilleberg 37, and Crozier got 13 - so yes they gave players NHL chances last year - not sure what you're talking about.

Gonglaves was having a career year down in the A while playing in a scoring role as a 22 year old - he's where he should've been and set himself up this year for a look. You guys are bitching about not having another Gourde and Johnson when those guys stayed in the AHL till they were 23-25.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Then maybe Goncalves should've done something at camp, he was unimpressive and wasn't a top-3 showing throughout camp and pre-season hence why they didn't go with him.

They gave Merela 20 games, ABB 36, Chaffee 30, Lilleberg 37, and Crozier got 13 - so yes they gave players NHL chances last year - not sure what you're talking about.

Gonglaves was having a career year down in the A while playing in a scoring role as a 22 year old - he's where he should've been and set himself up this year for a look. You guys are bitching about not having another Gourde and Johnson when those guys stayed in the AHL till they were 23-25.

Barre Boulet is old and was never that good. Chaffee is a 4th liner and played too high up the lineup, and is also old. I want younger forwards (born in 2000s) getting real shots.

Maybe the reason is he's not as good as we think? I personally don't believe that. Here is the thing, the mentality here is that we are finished. The team sucks, blow it all up, and get started on rebuilding. This a hockey forum about future players and prospects. I get it. But the reality is, Tampa as a whole is still considered a Top 10 team for the cup according to Vegas odds. The team is going to push, and its going to take a 3 or 4 more years for that fall off to come.

We're essentially in the 10-14 range with the potential of being around 8 in terms 1-32 team rankings. Unlikely to be a serious contender now unless all the veterans play to their capabilities, a young kid or two absolutely pops, and we get elite goaltending again. We're not deep enough anymore.

 

[Sky04]

Barre Boulet is old and was never that good. Chaffee is a 4th liner and played too high up the lineup, and is also old. I want younger forwards (born in 2000s) getting real shots.

ABB is a much better player than Gonclaves so moot point, where exactly do you think Gonclaves is slotting cause he sure as hell isn't a top-9 NHLer with his pedigree. So you want shittier players to get a look because they're young? Logic isn't striking there.

 

[DFC]

How old do you think the team is?


Yeah but now we aren't arguing the same thing. If the argument is the scouts are making poor picks, thats one thing. But the argument is we aren't developing NHL talent because we don't have picks. Those are two different points.

I'm mainly arguing that we aren't drafting as well as we used to. Not really anything beyond that. I think JBB has strengths and weaknesses, and drafting doesn't appear to be a strength. It might be a change in philosophy. Seems like we are prioritizing size more now, whereas we used to draft BPA and then trade when we needed to fill holes.

I don't think it's the development because we aren't seeing guys stand out before they hit the pros as much as we used to. Point and Cirelli are extreme examples, and I'm not saying we should expect players like them in the mid rounds, but they were both massive impact players in junior who improved year to year.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I'm mainly arguing that we aren't drafting as well as we used to. Not really anything beyond that. I think JBB has strengths and weaknesses, and drafting doesn't appear to be a strength. It might be a change in philosophy. Seems like we are prioritizing size more now, whereas we used to draft BPA and then trade when we needed to fill holes.

I don't think it's the development because we aren't seeing guys stand out before they hit the pros as much as we used to. Point and Cirelli are extreme examples, and I'm not saying we should expect players like them in the mid rounds, but they were both massive impact players in junior who improved year to year.

The best value pick made by BriseBois's scouts in recent years has to be Dylan Duke and potentially Niko Huuhtanen. Would be nice to get real NHLers out of the 4th and 7th rounds.

Again, I'm not asking for everyone to be the next Brayden Point (that would be nice though), I just need somebody to be the next Ross Colton and contribute solidly most years.

 

[DFC]

The best value pick made by BriseBois's scouts in recent years has to be Dylan Duke and potentially Niko Huuhtanen. Would be nice to get real NHLers out of the 4th and 7th rounds.

Again, I'm not asking for everyone to be the next Brayden Point (that would be nice though), I just need somebody to be the next Ross Colton and contribute solidly most years.

Yeah, I don't have my hopes up because it feels like we have those types of players come and go every few years. I'm not seeing much that makes me think "that guy is definitely an NHLer." I'm thinking even guys like Cedric Paquette. We could see they were going to play a role pretty early. Now we have a few guys who, if things go perfectly, might be NHLers. But they seem like longer shots.

 

[Sky04]

I'm mainly arguing that we aren't drafting as well as we used to. Not really anything beyond that. I think JBB has strengths and weaknesses, and drafting doesn't appear to be a strength. It might be a change in philosophy. Seems like we are prioritizing size more now, whereas we used to draft BPA and then trade when we needed to fill holes.

I don't think it's the development because we aren't seeing guys stand out before they hit the pros as much as we used to. Point and Cirelli are extreme examples, and I'm not saying we should expect players like them in the mid rounds, but they were both massive impact players in junior who improved year to year.

You do know that JBB was directly involved with the "golden era" of our pool right? Like he managed everything in Syracuse and was side by side with Yzerman during those drafts I doubt he just changed everything about what made that model successful. I'd lean towards the success being good strategy during that time and most of it is luck. Considering Yzerman has yet to to churn out a late round gem since going to Detroit I'd say that's exactly the case unless you think he completely changed the way he drafted also.

Going through the size of some of the more recent drafts and comparing it to the ones from before and they look - the same? We're still taking plenty 5'9-5'11 skill players, likewise it's not like they didn't take sized players during the Yzerman years either.

Also it's not like every team is just going to ignore how Tampa or other good drafting teams draft, they're going to take note and apply the same strategies which is probably a bigger reason why "BPA's" are falling in quality in the later rounds - they aren't being ignored anymore.

The best value pick made by BriseBois's scouts in recent years has to be Dylan Duke and potentially Niko Huuhtanen. Would be nice to get real NHLers out of the 4th and 7th rounds.

Again, I'm not asking for everyone to be the next Brayden Point (that would be nice though), I just need somebody to be the next Ross Colton and contribute solidly most years.

"I need everyone to be Ross Colton who became a full time NHLer at age 25 to be doing the same at 22 or younger" lmao what?

 

[DFC]

You do know that JBB was directly involved with the "golden era" of our pool right? Like he managed everything in Syracuse and was side by side with Yzerman during those drafts I doubt he just changed everything about what made that model successful. I'd lean towards the success being good strategy during that time and most of it is luck. Considering Yzerman has yet to to churn out a late round gem since going to Detroit I'd say that's exactly the case unless you think he completely changed the way he drafted also.

Going through the size of some of the more recent drafts and comparing it to the ones from before and they look - the same? We're still taking plenty 5'9-5'11 skill players, likewise it's not like they didn't take sized players during the Yzerman years either.

Also it's not like every team is just going to ignore how Tampa or other good drafting teams draft, they're going to take note and apply the same strategies which is probably a bigger reason why "BPA's" are falling in quality in the later rounds - they aren't being ignored anymore.

Yeah, I think the last paragraph is what actually happened. We were ahead of the curve, picking small, skilled players (and Russians) when the rest of the league was by and large overlooking them. But our prospect pool got ridiculously good for a minute, with a lot of unknowns becoming clear NHL prospects, and I think the rest of the league followed suit. So it's tougher to find that specific type of gem now. That would also explain why we were never great at finding them in the first round, when everyone else valued skill and skating as much as we did.

 

[The Gongshow]

How old do you think the team is?

29.2 avg.

We have 3 years. By then:
Kuch - 34
Point- 31
Vasy - 32
Hedman - 36 (retiring a year later

In 3 years if the team doesn't have a group of younger guys stepping up like Palat, Johnson, Kuch wave OR the Point, Cirelli wave the team will be even more like the Capitals and Penguins. Not enough for playoffs. JBB is said to be ruthless, what stops him from shipping out players after 3 years.