tbcwpg
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2022-23 Tank Thread
- Thread starter jgimp
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Goalie trades are tough to predict or gage value. Top end goalies hardly ever get moved, and goalies of Helles track record and accomplishments are few and far between. On top of that, now you're dealing with a 30 year old UFA-1. I don't think you're gonna get a few firsts.
tbcwpg
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I think Hellebuyck would fetch a 1st, a good not great prospect, and whichever goalie he'd be replacing on the team he ends up with.
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There is a real correlation between a player's performance and his trade value.
You don't think Dubois' value has dropped with his play, second half season compared to first half?
tbcwpg
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tbcwpg
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I guess I shold explain a bit - I believe GMs have a "he'll do better here because of X and Y so his struggles on his last team doesn't really bother me" mindset when it comes to players like Dubois - I think he'd need a long history of constantly underperforming to impact his trade value, not a bit of a slip this year.
They'll see the player at the beginning of the year and think they can get that guy. On this board we tend to see the bad stretches as "the real Jets" but I believe GMs think the opposite.
I don't think it's specific to the Jets, but they do seem a bit more prone to these swoons where things don't go their way and they just can't break out of it. Like they get defeated psychologically. And it's not all about heart - there are things the coaching staff can do to make it better or worse and I think latter-stage Maurice and now Bowness seem to make it worse. Who's held accountable or not seems to follow no logical order...what did Schmidt actually do to deserve being healthy scratched? And, hey, whatever, the message seemed to get through to him. So why can't that be done with other guys?
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I think his first half was boosting that. GMs also have a recency bias. They choose to believe that recent outstanding play is the player's new norm. His second half will have had him slip back to his base level. Helle was playing at Vezina level again after an off year. Now he appears to be regressing. Still very good in terms of market value, but less than when he was looking like a future HHOF candidate. Etc.
tbcwpg
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I don't believe GMs are this short-sighted.
You are harping on Chevy….
I don’t disagree. We seem to be stuck with him….
You are preaching to the converted…
My comments suggest even he has to see it now and will act… I just don’t dwell on what isn’t going to happen…
Luongo comes to mind - traded twice as one of the elite goalies in the NHL. He was a .920 goalie over the previous 4 seasons in 2006 when the Panthers sent him to Vancouver for Todd Bertuzzi, G Alex Auld, and D Bryan Allen. Allen was a Dillon. Auld was apparently a promising prospect at the time. Bertuzzi was a couple of years after he assaulted Steve Moore...
Then in 2014, putting up a .918 over the previous 4 seasons, Vancouver traded him back to the Panthers (apparently the only place he would waive his NTC) for G Jacob Markstrom and Bottom 6 winger Shawn Matthias. Markstrom was a pretty well-regarded goalie prospect. Matthias was a bottom 6er.
Fleury's been moved a few times - but he's a strange situation (Pittsburgh wanted to dump him and basically gave him to Vegas, and he was a cap dump from Vegas to Chicago).
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That depends. If recent better play is confirming what they had expected, they will expect it to continue. Still using PLD as an example, I think the first half season was doing just that. His last 25 or so games have been more like his previous best seasons. They will tend to confirm that those seasons were what should be expected in the future.
Scheifele was better in the first half than he has been for a couple of seasons. That would have suggested a return to peak form. Last 25 or so games, it has been back to the player of those more recent seasons. The same goes for Helle.
None of them will have had their values drop into the sewer, but all 3 will be a little lower now than they would have been perceived as a couple of months ago. They will all still have considerable value. Just without the boost they were gaining in the first half of this season.
Joe Hallenback
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I think trading Helly at the draft next year is the best time. Especially if certain teams failed in the playoffs ie..Edmonton or didn't make the playoffs ie..Buffalo.
I think you could make a really good trade with both teams or others especially at his current cap hit. I think a 1st and good to great prospect is a start and you see what you can squeeze out after that.
I think you could make a really good trade with both teams or others especially at his current cap hit. I think a 1st and good to great prospect is a start and you see what you can squeeze out after that.
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How do you think attendance will fare with a team that keeps drafting in the 14-20 range? Never wins anything. Never threatens to win anything, including top 5 draft picks. Never finishes in the basement. Never gets any better. Builds up hope every pre-season, then disappoints.
Better to under-promise and over-deliver than to over-promise and under-deliver. Disappointment is deadly to attendance.
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That's extremely pessimistic if it is what we get from "all of the best case scenarios" working out. It is more like an up the middle forecast if there is a distribution of outcomes ranging from best case to worst case.
wpgfishfan
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voyageur
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I wouldn't consider Edmonton a trade partner. Having Jack Campbell as their goalie is good for us. That's the salary the would have to move in order to sign him.
Buffalo makes a lot of sense to me. That's a good team that isn't getting goaltending down the stretch. Comrie is signed there for next year, and we know those two have a good working relationship. UPL would be a goalie that I think Flats could work with, technically.
Jersey would be an interesting trade partner too if they don't get the goaltending in the playoffs.
In the East, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Ottawa are all without a starting goalie next year, so they could make moves to address that with the supply of quality goalies limited.
Whoever trades for Helly would want to sign him, and that's going to be the big thing, where does he want to play? Because we've seen that the uncertainty of re-signing a player with only one year of contract left generally limits their value.
tbcwpg
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I think it's two separate arguments - I'm not arguing that attendance now is good and it would only get worse if the team rebuilds. I'm saying that the argument that attendance might be better because fans want to see players giving an effort and trying and blah blah blah, is all wrong. People don't pay to see losses, whether it's now or in a rebuild.
2026-27 is only 3 years away, a couple years after that is only 5 years away. Doing a full rebuild in 5 years requires drafting a couple franchise players and then have good players want to sign with you to supplement your draft picks. A full rebuild in the NHL's least desirable market will be painful and require a lot of luck. Odds wise we are probably much more likely to miss the playoffs for a decade or more then we are to be competitive in 5-7 years.
Also losing quickly gets rebranded as not trying. Look at the fallout around here when we dominate a game and lose. All the same daggers' come out. Very few people say its okay they worked hard. This board will savage a rebuilding team for years and years.
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Not to speak for all others but I don't think that is what anyone has been saying. Seeing players working every night (ok most nights) plus following exciting young players as they develop will somewhat mitigate the loss of ticket sales.
In non-traditional hockey markets losing teams draw flies. It would not be nearly as bad as that in Winnipeg. Though still bad.
Expectations play a big part. We made the PO for the first time in 15. Jets immediately announced a youth movement and finished in 6th draft spot the next year. Attendance didn't tank. Expectations had been managed. Fortunately it only took 2 years to rebound and in the 2nd of those years, we had the excitement of Laine arriving.
Different circumstances, but after the almost endless disappointments of these last several seasons, lowered expectations but with real hope for the not too distant future would be a welcome change - despite the frustration of losing a lot of games. As it is now, we get to watch our team losing to those rebuilding teams. What could be worse than that?
That's because we were still in the honeymoon period, people were locked into 5 year ST commitments, and there was a waiting list of people waiting to scoop up Season Tickets. None of that applies anymore. TNSE put the original ST commitment money towards tickets this season, now everyone is buying STs on a year by year bases. There are empty seats every night and those that buy tickets at the last minute pay 1/2 or less than 1/2 the amount season ticket holders do each game. A rebuild will cost a TNSE a large percentage of their remaining ST holders, as people will just get cheap tickets for games that suit them (original 6 teams and Friday and Saturday nights) rather than forking over ten of thousands for 41 regular season and 4 pre-season games. Most games will have 1/2 full buildings with ticket dumps going to kid sports teams and youth organizations. It would have worked in 2011, but not in 2023.
i thought of luongo and schneider. both a long ass time ago and vastly different contexts as you illustrated.
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24 season, 25, 26, 27, = 4, plus 2 more? 6 You specified that that would be with all of the best case scenarios working out. That would mean drafting a couple of franchise players, among other things.
I don't believe it is ever necessary to have high end FAs sign with you to supplement your picks. We do alright signing the low to mid level ones that may be needed.
The Jets have a choice between 2 quite different timelines. There is the one where they let everybody walk after trying to get another PO run out of them and there is the one where they jump start the process.
Trading all of Dubois, Scheifele and Hellebuyck should yield a very good start on a rebuild. Draft about 17-18 this year and bottom 5 for a couple after that. Add those assets to the prospects we have now, McGroarty, Lucius, Lambert, Heinola, Chisholm, Gawanke, Salomonsson, Zhilkin, Divincentiis, plus a few lesser ones who might yield 2-3 more NHL'ers. That is an already well started rebuild. We still have JMo, KFC and Ehlers plus a couple of middle 6'ers and a few bottom 6'ers.
We might be a little too young, lacking experience and leadership. That can be dealt with through FA and/or trade.
Goal will be the hardest spot to fill. We have a few prospects but no blue chippers. We might not even get a good backup out of the bunch.
A lot of teams have started their rebuilds with a lot less and it has taken them a very long time. A misstep or two can add years to the rebuild. There is no guarantee on the timeline. But with a good start it doesn't need to take a decade or more.
Edit: I meant to point out the money saving too. The idea is that Chipman wants POs this year to recoup some of the losses due to Covid. Jets could be shaving 15 mil or more from the expense side for a year or two. That makes up for some lost ticket sales.
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