2022-23 Tank Thread

[Mortimer Snerd]

Spiral, is it?

Geez

Oh my bad, this is the tank thread.

Carry on!!

Not a perfect spiral. There have been some ups and downs. But average it all out and it was a spiral until the first half of this year. In the second half so far, it has resumed where the spiral had left off.

 

[WolfgangPuck]

Checking the Habs forum
The Habs fans are are so happy at their current losing streak into the bottom 5 and cheering for their team to defeat at game day to try to achieve bottom 3 by the end of the season
Count me out if Jets get that bad during the next rebuild

 

[snowkiddin]

It’s good to be back

 

[LowLefty]

Checking the Habs forum
The Habs fans are are so happy at their current losing streak into the bottom 5 and cheering for their team to defeat at game day to try to achieve bottom 3 by the end of the season
Count me out if Jets get that bad during the next rebuild

Count me out of that discussion if Jet FANS get that bad during the next rebuild - but I'll still be very much a Jets fan.
Not sure if that was where you were going with your post.

 

[KingBogo]

Count me out of that discussion if Jet FANS get that bad during the next rebuild - but I'll still be very much a Jets fan.
Not sure if that was where you were going with your post.

I took as cut me out of being part of those season long ordeals where you spend every day cheering against your team.

 

[LowLefty]

I took as cut me out of being part of those season long ordeals where you spend every day cheering against your team.

I'd have no interest in that - if they need to rebuild at some point, I'm behind them - but would nothing to do with the tank crowd.
And as you and I have previously discussed, I'm not a season ticket holder so it's an easy decision for me.
I honestly don't need a highly skilled team in order to cheer on a team - but I have no time for multi-millionaires that don't show up.
That would turn me off to the Jets before a rebuilding team -

 

[Buffdog]

Checking the Habs forum
The Habs fans are are so happy at their current losing streak into the bottom 5 and cheering for their team to defeat at game day to try to achieve bottom 3 by the end of the season
Count me out if Jets get that bad during the next rebuild

The only tanks that have "worked" involved a semi-generational talent taken at the top of the draft. But there have been a few teams that have gotten a great player and still sucked for a long time, like Buffalo.

To me, it isn't a question of "can winnipeg support a scorched earth rebuild". It's a question of whether or not a scorched earth rebuild is the best approach to becoming cup-competitive as quickly as possible

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'd have no interest in that - if they need to rebuild at some point, I'm behind them - but would nothing to do with the tank crowd.
And as you and I have previously discussed, I'm not a season ticket holder so it's an easy decision for me.
I honestly don't need a highly skilled team in order to cheer on a team - but I have no time for multi-millionaires that don't show up.
That would turn me off to the Jets before a rebuilding team -

I can't cheer for my team to lose. Can't do it. I don't believe players or coaches deliberately tank either. But I can support a team that trades veterans for futures and goes on a serious youth movement leading to a high draft pick.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The only tanks that have "worked" involved a semi-generational talent taken at the top of the draft. But there have been a few teams that have gotten a great player and still sucked for a long time, like Buffalo.

To me, it isn't a question of "can winnipeg support a scorched earth rebuild". It's a question of whether or not a scorched earth rebuild is the best approach to becoming cup-competitive as quickly as possible

I don't think there is a one size fits all answer to that question. It depends on the details.

A lot of individual questions need to be answered along the way. In our case, assuming PLD will not extend here the question is should he be moved before he reaches UFA or should he be kept like an own rental for one last gasp. I think the consensus here is pretty clearly in favour of getting what we can for him.

Then we have questions about Scheifele and Helle. Will they extend here, or go for UFA? If they are willing to stay, how much should we offer? What if one will stay but the other won't? Should we keep the one, or move on from both? I think we don't have a clear consensus here on those questions. We could move Dubois and do more of a retool than full rebuild.

If we elect to go on a full rebuild, do we resort to scorched earth, or do we go with a more measured pace on the rebuild? (scorched earth would mean trading pretty much everyone with value in addition to the 3 who are down to one year before UFA)

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I can't cheer for my team to lose. Can't do it. I don't believe players or coaches deliberately tank either. But I can support a team that trades veterans for futures and goes on a serious youth movement leading to a high draft pick.

I think that is tanking though. Look at Anaheim, even with a quality goalie they suck. I don't know when they will come out of it but its looking at least another year or two

 

[cbcwpg]

Is it "tanking" or is it "asset management"?

IMO dealing with players that don't want to be here or players that you just can't keep, and getting a return on those players, even if it makes your team worse in the short term or a few years, isn't necessarily tanking.

To me tanking is when you are already bad and at the bottom of the league and you trade everyone away ( Re: Chicago ) to make sure you stay at the bottom to get the best pick.

The Jets at this time are not bad enough to even think about tanking. Now if all their UFAs leave for nothing then that season we probably would be bad enough to tank.

 

[Buffdog]

I don't think there is a one size fits all answer to that question. It depends on the details.

A lot of individual questions need to be answered along the way. In our case, assuming PLD will not extend here the question is should he be moved before he reaches UFA or should he be kept like an own rental for one last gasp. I think the consensus here is pretty clearly in favour of getting what we can for him.

Then we have questions about Scheifele and Helle. Will they extend here, or go for UFA? If they are willing to stay, how much should we offer? What if one will stay but the other won't? Should we keep the one, or move on from both? I think we don't have a clear consensus here on those questions. We could move Dubois and do more of a retool than full rebuild.

If we elect to go on a full rebuild, do we resort to scorched earth, or do we go with a more measured pace on the rebuild? (scorched earth would mean trading pretty much everyone with value in addition to the 3 who are down to one year before UFA)

You're right about PLD, scief and helle. If they all want out, then the return tou target will dictate your rebuild pace. Do you lean more towards 1s round picks, or NHL ready prospects? Do you try to be as bad as possible for as long as possible to rack up higher picks?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think that is tanking though. Look at Anaheim, even with a quality goalie they suck. I don't know when they will come out of it but its looking at least another year or two

Yes. But it seems that some people mean deliberately losing.

Even the GM is probably not deliberately losing, at least not usually. There may be a few exceptions to that. But losing a lot is a natural consequence of heavily sacrificing the now for the future.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You're right about PLD, scief and helle. If they all want out, then the return tou target will dictate your rebuild pace. Do you lean more towards 1s round picks, or NHL ready prospects? Do you try to be as bad as possible for as long as possible to rack up higher picks?

Yup. There are a lot of different ways you could go. Several of them could be successful, if done well. They could all fail too, or take excessively long to succeed, depending on the details.

This would have been a good year to bottom out. Not just for Bedard. There are a lot of very good players who will be available. Even in later rounds an early pick could be good.

I think Buffalo accumulated a lot of picks in some draft classes that just weren't that good. Added years to their rebuild.

I think that a rebuild could be accelerated by getting a mix of picks and prospects. If we traded those 3 top pieces PLD should get a 1st + probably a B prospect, Scheifele a 1st + A prospect + and Helle the same. Saving 2-3 years of development time on each of those prospects could be a big help.

 

[Guffman]

We play in a 32 team league. On average you should make the playoffs every 2nd year. If we make the playoffs this season, we will have made the playoffs 6 times in 12 years, which is exactly average. And yes the play ins count as playoffs. All official NHL playoff stats include those games as playoff games. So your beef would be with the NHL and not me, as I'm just going by official NHL records. Carrying on, on average a team should get past the 1st round once every 4 years, we have done it twice in 11 years, but with some luck maybe this year we do it again putting us right on average. On average a team should make it to the conference finals every 8 years, and we have done it once, so a little behind there. On average a team should make the Stanley cup finals once every 16 years and win the cup once in 32 years. Lots of time still.

So statistically we are a very average team. This year we are proving it by currently sitting 14th out of 32 teams. I just don't carry around unrealistic expectations, that we are somehow magically become exceptional. I'm enjoying being in a playoff race, and once you get there, there is always hope.

Expressed another way, in 12 years, we should expect:

- 6 playoff appearances (likely match this year)
- 3 round 2 appearances (have 2, could reach 3 this year)
- 1.5 round 3 appearances (have 1, could reach 2 this year)
- 0.75 SC appearances (have 0, could reach 1 this year)

Guys, if we make it to the SC this year, the math of average results will work out REALLY clean over our first 12 years in Winnipeg. It's almost fate that we're going to make the SC this year!

 

[Guffman]

The only tanks that have "worked" involved a semi-generational talent taken at the top of the draft. But there have been a few teams that have gotten a great player and still sucked for a long time, like Buffalo.

To me, it isn't a question of "can winnipeg support a scorched earth rebuild". It's a question of whether or not a scorched earth rebuild is the best approach to becoming cup-competitive as quickly as possible

Some teams (like Buffalo and Edmonton) had a losing mentality that just plagued them for years on end.

I didn't mind how the Jets transitioned after we got bounced in 4 by Anaheim. It didn't take long until we actually had a legit shot at contention and we never dumpster dived that low in the standings.

Chevy certainly had a good blueprint on how to do this. He just sucked at sustaining the window.

 

[Buffdog]

Some teams (like Buffalo and Edmonton) had a losing mentality that just plagued them for years on end.

I didn't mind how the Jets transitioned after we got bounced in 4 by Anaheim. It didn't take long until we actually had a legit shot at contention and we never dumpster dived that low in the standings.

Chevy certainly had a good blueprint on how to do this. He just sucked at sustaining the window.

To be fair, I'm not sure how you safeguard against your best dman just deciding he's done playing and another holding a gun to your head and making you deal him to one specific team.

Hopefully our young assets like Mcgroarty, lucius and Lambert are as close to contributing as ehlers, schief, Connor and Laine were

 

[Truenorthducky]

Just Blow it up already. Team is broken.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Disagree. Team is lacking bit but don't think they are broken. You gonna have to make some moves tho.

 

[AlphaLackey]

To be fair, I'm not sure how you safeguard against your best dman just deciding he's done playing and another holding a gun to your head and making you deal him to one specific team.

Hopefully our young assets like Mcgroarty, lucius and Lambert are as close to contributing as ehlers, schief, Connor and Laine were

Beyond any doubt in my mind, Chevy turned a giant platter of chicken shit into chicken salad. And I'll keep reminding people that we played St. Louis tight in that series shortly after. For a team that had the dryest f***ing cupboards imaginable after 11 years where the single best 2nd-4th round pick in franchise history was Ben Chairot, and the second best was actually Ondrej Pavelec, we've done well; Jets 2.0 has had ups and downs in our decade+ time span that have been longer than some teams have even won a playoff series in.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Standing offer to anyone who wants to bet against the Jets making the playoffs. I'll even lay you 6:5 odds, offer stands until we play our next game. Real money bets, charity bets, pride bets, just let me know

 

[Guffman]

To be fair, I'm not sure how you safeguard against your best dman just deciding he's done playing and another holding a gun to your head and making you deal him to one specific team.

Hopefully our young assets like Mcgroarty, lucius and Lambert are as close to contributing as ehlers, schief, Connor and Laine were

Chevy knew Trouba was not signing long-term with us but fair enough with Buff though. Issue I had is that Chevy wasn’t aggressive enough in fixing the D for a number of years.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Some teams (like Buffalo and Edmonton) had a losing mentality that just plagued them for years on end.

I didn't mind how the Jets transitioned after we got bounced in 4 by Anaheim. It didn't take long until we actually had a legit shot at contention and we never dumpster dived that low in the standings.

Chevy certainly had a good blueprint on how to do this. He just sucked at sustaining the window.

 

[jetsmooseice]

Some teams (like Buffalo and Edmonton) had a losing mentality that just plagued them for years on end.

I didn't mind how the Jets transitioned after we got bounced in 4 by Anaheim. It didn't take long until we actually had a legit shot at contention and we never dumpster dived that low in the standings.

Chevy certainly had a good blueprint on how to do this. He just sucked at sustaining the window.

The tricky thing is that as you do better, expectations rise as well. Look at this season, back in August I think everyone would have been pretty thrilled if you told them you travelled in time and could confirm that the Jets were indeed going to be a playoff team. But suddenly that wild card spot doesn't taste as sweet when you were on top of the conference, even if only for a blink of an eye.

In some perverse way I think the fan reaction would be more positive if it was clear that the team was tanking for a couple of years in preparation for a monster run down the line. When expectations are low to begin with, no one gets that mad when you are meeting them.

 

[Channelcat]

Seems a bit late for tanking. 9th in the west doesn't help us much