2022-23 Tank Thread

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed, but after 12 years and lots and lots of losing, they are still trying to put enough pieces together to just make the playoffs. If we lose/move Helly it may be a decade or more before we get anyone near as good as he is.

We may never get another goalie as good as Helle. A goalie that good is not a requirement.

 

[tbcwpg]

The player I really doubt stays around is Connor. First off he is an American, and being a scoring winger he will take a big points hit with Scheifele and PLD gone. He will know going in with the initial deep dive with the Jets in the first couple years of a retool/rebuild will likely have a big drag on his next big UFA deal. In a rebuilding team he is likely a 30G 60 point winger. Playing on a contender with a top 10 center he could be a 50G 100 point player. That's $3-4 M per year for his next UFA deal. And I'll add if you were going to rebuild he would bring the biggest return, because of his term.

He could ask to be moved but he's got 3 years left so you'd have to consider him in the medium term plans at least. If he goes though I think you're in the territory of Morrissey and a bunch of rookies which I think lasts 5+ years before some real returns on that youth investment.

 

[BoneDocUK]

I think players like Connor and Morrissey to start with based on contract status, then you add to that group. I only say "re-tool" because I think people have the idea that a rebuild is only by trading anyone with any value and starting over.

Your timeline estimate seems reasonable to me, and I also suspect that if done in the right way -- i.e., young and competitive players who are willing to buy in and work hard to provide at least entertaining if not winning hockey -- then the fanbase might bear it.

But I don't see this org doing it, especially under Chevy.

They've been half in / half out for years now. We saw it when they brought in plugs on D to add "stability" and "character" instead of promoting from within and easing the way for a future, and we've seen it with such deadline adds as Zach Sanford, Eakin, Benn etc., and the loss of even later-round picks wasted to acquire them. We saw it in the refusal to trade Stats for anything at all when they knew they weren't making the playoffs and that he wasn't resigning, and we saw it in the refusal to retain salary on Wheeler in order to oil the market for a trade.

They aren't resigning PLD. They are unlikely to hang onto Scheifele, and I don't see how they'll convince Helle to resign here for anything less than a gigantic and team-worsening long and pricey deal. I also don't see how they hang onto Heinola, Chisholm or even Stan unless they're willing to shift Pionk or Schmidt or DeMelo or even Dillon, and I don't see them doing those things without absolutely having to.

IMO, they'll try to keep the gang together, because they "believe in this team," still. Unless players make their own decisions and force their way out, I can easily see Chevy running this back for the most part, especially if they make the POs, and then deferring the biggest moves as long as they can, even to keeping PLD as their own rental just in case.

Maybe they'll surprise the bejezzus outta me, and act boldly, decisively and brilliantly to make the proactive and creative changes necessary to ensure a long window of high-level hockey and playoff appearances, plus the odd contender window, but I just don't see the org taking such steps unless forced to.

It's been said, correctly, that this team is often playing not to lose instead of playing to win.

I think of the Jets org similarly -- making moves in the spirit of not losing, as opposed to squeezing every possible margin in order to win.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think players like Connor and Morrissey to start with based on contract status, then you add to that group. I only say "re-tool" because I think people have the idea that a rebuild is only by trading anyone with any value and starting over.

Moving on from Dubois, Scheif and Helle may not be quite scorched earth, but it is getting pretty close.

We keep Ehlers, Connor, Morrissey, Lowry, Samberg. The rest can go or stay. Makes little difference. Move them at the TDs as their contracts go into the last years.

 

[KingBogo]

He could ask to be moved but he's got 3 years left so you'd have to consider him in the medium term plans at least. If he goes though I think you're in the territory of Morrissey and a bunch of rookies which I think lasts 5+ years before some real returns on that youth investment.

I think it is very likely everyone past age 25 wants out ASAP, on a rebuild. Veteran players want no part of a rebuild. 10X that in Winnipeg, especially for those that will see the rest of their primes grind away. I think you see a mass exodus of players wanting out, which Chevy will comply with as you don't want "I get wait to get out of Dodge" mindset prevailing as every prospect joins the team.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Your timeline estimate seems reasonable to me, and I also suspect that if done in the right way -- i.e., young and competitive players who are willing to buy in and work hard to provide at least entertaining if not winning hockey -- then the fanbase might bear it.

But I don't see this org doing it, especially under Chevy.

They've been half in / half out for years now. We saw it when they brought in plugs on D to add "stability" and "character" instead of promoting from within and easing the way for a future, and we've seen it with such deadline adds as Zach Sanford, Eakin, Benn etc., and the loss of even later-round picks wasted to acquire them. We saw it in the refusal to trade Stats for anything at all when they knew they weren't making the playoffs and that he wasn't resigning, and we saw it in the refusal to retain salary on Wheeler in order to oil the market for a trade.

They aren't resigning PLD. They are unlikely to hang onto Scheifele, and I don't see how they'll convince Helle to resign here for anything less than a gigantic and team-worsening long and pricey deal. I also don't see how they hang onto Heinola, Chisholm or even Stan unless they're willing to shift Pionk or Schmidt or DeMelo or even Dillon, and I don't see them doing those things without absolutely having to.

IMO, they'll try to keep the gang together, because they "believe in this team," still. Unless players make their own decisions and force their way out, I can easily see Chevy running this back for the most part, especially if they make the POs, and then deferring the biggest moves as long as they can, even to keeping PLD as their own rental just in case.

Maybe they'll surprise the bejezzus outta me, and act boldly, decisively and brilliantly to make the proactive and creative changes necessary to ensure a long window of high-level hockey and playoff appearances, plus the odd contender window, but I just don't see the org taking such steps unless forced to.

It's been said, correctly, that this team is often playing not to lose instead of playing to win.

I think of the Jets org similarly -- making moves in the spirit of not losing, as opposed to squeezing every possible margin in order to win.

Some here have been talking about moving on from Chevy. I am not yet on board with that. But here is the reason that would push me over the edge on that issue.

He has been capable, solid, but not bold, not even proactive. I also see the org as playing not to lose. Not sure if that is just Chevy or if it permeates the whole organization. I can see them coming back again next year with the same gang. That would be the last straw for me.

I was expecting a major shakeup after last season. We didn't get any of it, just a new coach. But it looked great for the first half and I was quite happy to have been wrong. Unfortunately, it now looks like I was right all along and I really did prefer being wrong. We really need major change now. If they fail to capitalize on the talent they will be losing that will be unforgivable.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think it is very likely everyone past age 25 wants out ASAP, on a rebuild. Veteran players want no part of a rebuild. 10X that in Winnipeg, especially for those that will see the rest of their primes grind away. I think you see a mass exodus of players wanting out, which Chevy will comply with as you don't want "I get wait to get out of Dodge" mindset prevailing as every prospect joins the team.

And yet the Thrashers players who came here were willing to do just that.

Wheeler and Ladd were 25, Buff was 26, Little was 23, Enstrom was 26. None of them asked for a trade. They all extended with Winnipeg.

 

[tbcwpg]

And yet the Thrashers players who came here were willing to do just that.

Wheeler and Ladd were 25, Buff was 26, Little was 23, Enstrom was 26. None of them asked for a trade. They all extended with Winnipeg.

They did but the team was on the up at that point and not on the downswing like they are now. It's one thing to stay in Winnipeg when the team is going towards some success that you'd be a major part of, another to be the shepherd leading the young sheep while the team struggles to 24th in the league.

 

[snowkiddin]

They did but the team was on the up at that point and not on the downswing like they are now. It's one thing to stay in Winnipeg when the team is going towards some success that you'd be a major part of, another to be the shepherd leading the young sheep while the team struggles to 24th in the league.

I don’t know, it’s not like we were primed for huge success when a lot of those guys signed again.

Ladd signed a few weeks after Scheifele was drafted. The Thrashers had been ass for years and we had no prospects. Maybe True North sold him on what they would build though.

Enström signed in summer 2012. He would’ve been 27 years old and the team was still spinning it’s wheels in the mud and the Jets/Thrashers hadn’t had any success in years.

Little signed in 2013, 25 years old, team hadn’t done anything in his entire career, Jets were still a ways off.

Wheeler, same kind of deal, almost 27 when he signed in 2013.

Pavelec (yuck) was ostensibly part of the core when he signed a contract here to take him through his 20s at the age of 24.

The team finally had some semblance of success, and had a full pipeline of prospects, by the time Buff’s contract was up and he signed in 2016 (would’ve been 30 I believe) so I’ll give you that one.

The big caveat I can see with a lot of those guys is maybe they signed in part because they arena was much more electrifying back then. Must’ve been a really fun atmosphere to play in. We obviously don’t have that anymore.

It’s an interesting conversation to have though, and I’m sure at least some of the older players will want out (plus there will be some who hold more value to us as trade assets than as roster players), but I’m not sure I agree that it is “very likely” that everyone older than 25 will want out as soon as possible. Not like they can get out of their contracts anyway.

 

[DRW204]

It seems to me that people forget that if we trade away some of the core were not going to be left with only 7 forwards or something. You will get players back and you can sign FAs also.

Also Id much rather watch a young team working its butt off than a bunch of soft underachieving vets float around the playoff bubble.

Rebuilds are part of sports if you can't handle them well then you're not much of a fan.

i don't think anyone is forgetting that.

the Jets have a semi-competitive team and are unable to nab good FAs as it stands today. so assuming you deal your UFA-1s and maybe a Dman or 2, who wants to rebuild with no goalie, no offensive depth in Winnipeg? The Jets prospect pool doesn't really have anyone that shapes to be an elite player either imo. so are you looking at more stenlunds, or kuhlman types?
secondly, if you're trading scheifele for example now, it's probably going to be PO caliber teams vying for him give his UFA status so maybe you get a replacement level player back, or just picks and prospects (likely not high picks though).

who do you think we will acquire if you trade/don't sign scheifele, pld, helle and wheeler?

And yet the Thrashers players who came here were willing to do just that.

Wheeler and Ladd were 25, Buff was 26, Little was 23, Enstrom was 26. None of them asked for a trade. They all extended with Winnipeg.

speaking of the thrashers.... if the big 3+wheeler are traded to commence a rebuild. id say our roster might be worse than the 2011 Thrashers team we had given my FA assumption of the above post.

i think some of that personnel was a bit underrated. the shit goaltending that Chevy gave 20 million dollars too tanked that team. but prime wheeler, little, ladd, buff, enstrom, and then a good youngster in kane. that's 4/6 of a i'd say solid (but not great) top-6 and a top-pair. unfortunately goaltending and probably Noel was awful.

 

[tbcwpg]

I don’t know, it’s not like we were primed for huge success when a lot of those guys signed again.

Ladd signed a few weeks after Scheifele was drafted. The Thrashers had been ass for years and we had no prospects. Maybe True North sold him on what they would build though.

Enström signed in summer 2012. He would’ve been 27 years old and the team was still spinning it’s wheels in the mud and the Jets/Thrashers hadn’t had any success in years.

Little signed in 2013, 25 years old, team hadn’t done anything in his entire career, Jets were still a ways off.

Wheeler, same kind of deal, almost 27 when he signed in 2013.

Pavelec (yuck) was ostensibly part of the core when he signed a contract here to take him through his 20s at the age of 24.

The team finally had some semblance of success, and had a full pipeline of prospects, by the time Buff’s contract was up and he signed in 2016 (would’ve been 30 I believe) so I’ll give you that one.

The big caveat I can see with a lot of those guys is maybe they signed in part because they arena was much more electrifying back then. Must’ve been a really fun atmosphere to play in. We obviously don’t have that anymore.

It’s an interesting conversation to have though, and I’m sure at least some of the older players will want out (plus there will be some who hold more value to us as trade assets than as roster players), but I’m not sure I agree that it is “very likely” that everyone older than 25 will want out as soon as possible. Not like they can get out of their contracts anyway.

Ladd was a critical signing for the team. They needed the captain to sign up to help sell the move to the team. I remember seeing him and his wife downtown a couple of days after the announcement visiting the city.

Enstrom, Little - there was a lot of optimism around the team, the building atmosphere was incredible, I think a lot of that helped sell them. Easy to sell the plan at that point.

Pavelec - well, he wasn't good, but the team didn't have a replacement ready and wasn't competitive just yet, so the devil you know.

I don't have the same concern with re-signing players in Winnipeg as I do with signing unrestricted free agents but if the team is clearly on a downward trajectory it's a harder sell, I think.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

I think many don’t appreciate how long and painful rebuilds are if you can’t finish them off with UFAs that want to sign with you. Buffalo is just about to miss the post season for the 12th year in a row. Over the last 10 years they have had 17 first round picks, including 10 top 10 picks, 2 of which were 2nd OA and 2 of which were 1st OA picks. They have a good young team but the may still be a couple years away from even making the playoffs.

Ottawa is probably a likely scenario for the Jets - small market and not a place free agents will flock. Their GM has made some mistakes along the way and this will be their 6th season missing the playoffs. They should probably make it next year. They have plenty of high end pieces and damn good core..probably just need to add a piece or two now or just need a little more development from their young players.

Assuming the Jets make the playoffs this year and exit quickly, followed by a refusal of Helly, Mark and PLD to sign extensions, and their sell-offs, 2024 would probably be the first of several seasons in a row the team misses the playoffs...likely until 2030 or 2021. We would see a continued sell-off of other pieces over the coming 2 seasons like Ehlers, Connor, Dillon, Demelo, Schmidt as the team really bottoms out before seeing some improvement in the late 2020s...hopefully.

 

[snowkiddin]

Ladd was a critical signing for the team. They needed the captain to sign up to help sell the move to the team. I remember seeing him and his wife downtown a couple of days after the announcement visiting the city.

Enstrom, Little - there was a lot of optimism around the team, the building atmosphere was incredible, I think a lot of that helped sell them. Easy to sell the plan at that point.

Pavelec - well, he wasn't good, but the team didn't have a replacement ready and wasn't competitive just yet, so the devil you know.

I don't have the same concern with re-signing players in Winnipeg as I do with signing unrestricted free agents but if the team is clearly on a downward trajectory it's a harder sell, I think.

Yeah, I agree the arena atmosphere had a helping hand.

Who did we have in the system, really, when Enström/Little signed? Scheifele coming to the end of a solid junior career; Trouba, who looked like he was ready to contribute in the NHL; and an 18-year-old Morrissey. I don’t know how we would’ve viewed Lowry, Copp, and Hellebuyck at the time.

I think we agree though. I certainly agree it’s a tougher sell to retain players if we’re on the downswing, but that it’s not extremely likely that everyone will want out.

Signing UFAs will always be a problem here. Thankfully a good chunk of the higher profile UFAs end up signing regrettable contracts anyways.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

They did but the team was on the up at that point and not on the downswing like they are now. It's one thing to stay in Winnipeg when the team is going towards some success that you'd be a major part of, another to be the shepherd leading the young sheep while the team struggles to 24th in the league.

Were they on the upswing? Those players were the retained core. The rebuild was just starting. I suppose you could say that it had started with drafting Bogosian in 08, then EK9 in 09 followed by Burmi in 10. Unfortunately, none of those 3 turned out very well and the rebuild was rebooted with drafting Scheifele in 11. No idea how those players would have viewed it.

With Samberg and Perfetti having just entered the NHL and prospects Heinola, Lucius, Lambert, McGroarty and more, I think we are in better shape now than we were then and that is without assuming any return at all for PLD, Scheif and Helle. Then we had those 3 recent picks on the NHL roster and nothing else in the pipeline.

 

[tbcwpg]

Were they on the upswing? Those players were the retained core. The rebuild was just starting. I suppose you could say that it had started with drafting Bogosian in 08, then EK9 in 09 followed by Burmi in 10. Unfortunately, none of those 3 turned out very well and the rebuild was rebooted with drafting Scheifele in 11. No idea how those players would have viewed it.

With Samberg and Perfetti having just entered the NHL and prospects Heinola, Lucius, Lambert, McGroarty and more, I think we are in better shape now than we were then and that is without assuming any return at all for PLD, Scheif and Helle. Then we had those 3 recent picks on the NHL roster and nothing else in the pipeline.

Yeah, it was starting. They committed to the draft and develop model, they said the core was young enough that we want to build around those guys and add the youth in. I'm not saying they sold them on playoff success within a couple of years but the situation was much different then as it is now.

 

[sipowicz]

And yet the Thrashers players who came here were willing to do just that.

Wheeler and Ladd were 25, Buff was 26, Little was 23, Enstrom was 26. None of them asked for a trade. They all extended with Winnipeg.

So what, Enstrom was some big prize, guy lived of his 2010-2011 season with the Thrashers, he sure never came close to that or as advertised with the Jets, remember when some called an elite PP specialist , I’m still waiting to see that!

 

[Guffman]

your also using

Plus your assuming

think your being overly negative

*you’re

Tip for everyone: If you can replace it with “you are” and it stills reads properly, use “you’re”.

Carry on, hockey nerds.

 

[Guffman]

I think with good management and luck, the Jets could probably "re-tool" in about 4 or 5 seasons, which would be back in the playoff conversation, but getting to contender levels could take much longer.

Last time the Jets did a retool, it took 3 years until we were contending status. We didn’t really trade anyone. We just prioritized bringing in our youth, while keeping our old core (Wheeler, Ladd, Little, Buff, Enstrom).

The retool to me is trading Dubois, trading/not resigning Wheeler, going younger with our defence. I think they keep Schiefele and possibly Hellebuyck (if he’s willing).

I think it’s probably 4 seasons without a significant luck factor.

I also don't see how they hang onto Heinola, Chisholm or even Stan unless they're willing to shift Pionk or Schmidt or DeMelo or even Dillon, and I don't see them doing those things without absolutely having to.

I can definitely see movement in this area as soon as this offseason.

 

[Treb]

Haven't seen a draft thread that's not a few years old, so I guess this is where this would go.

I was Winnipeg for the HF Habs: - 2023 Early Bird 15th Annual Mock Draft (Round Seven) .

I usually go on the team forum and post the results to see how happy/mad people would be with that draft. Here is what the few picks your team has garnered:
18. Winnipeg: Calum Ritchie (C) - Oshawa Generals (OHL)
82. Winnipeg: Ethan Miedema (LW) - Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)
146. Winnipeg: Matyas Melovsky (C) - Baie-Comeau Drakkar (QMJHL)
153. Winnipeg (from NYR): Ivan Remezovsky (LD) - SKA-1946 St. Petersburg (MHL)
210. Winnipeg: Mikhail Ye. Ilyin (F) - Cherepovets (KHL/MHL)

Happy? Mad? Meh?

 

[Guffman]

Good morning, fellow Tankers!

Some bittersweet news last night. The out-of-town scored board was INCREDIBLE with both the Flames and the Preds crushing their opponents. On the disappointing side, Hellebuyck willed this team to win (I can HARDLY wait to trade him in the offseason!!).

As a result of last night's action:

The earliest that the Jets can be eliminated from the playoffs: April 4 (previously April 3).

This would require the following to occur (ignoring collapses by teams ahead of us in the standings):

1. Nashville goes 8-0-0 (unchanged)
2. Winnipeg goes 0-5-0 (previously 0-6-0)

That will give our young players 5 games (unchanged from last update) to strut their stuff in the NHL!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah, it was starting. They committed to the draft and develop model, they said the core was young enough that we want to build around those guys and add the youth in. I'm not saying they sold them on playoff success within a couple of years but the situation was much different then as it is now.

I agree it was much different then. I think it is better now. The total basket of assets is much stronger now.

But I do know where you are coming from. It is easy to cast our current situation as being pretty dire. Assuming we move on from PLD, Scheif and Helle (that is assuming we have no real choice) we would have no starting goalie, no top 6C, and a weak D corps.

Going into the 2011/12 season we had a young 2C in Little. No other top 6C. Now we would have a young 2C in Perfetti. Is there much difference there? Then we had an inadequate goalie, just like we would have now. Our D then was Buff and some guys. Buff hadn't yet figured out how to be the Dman he became a couple of years later. Now we would have JMo and some guys. Very different styles, obviously but JMo now is probably better than Buff was those first couple of years.

The difference would be the prospect pipeline. You may dismiss our prospect pool as not having any real difference makers but there are quite a few who will make it in the NHL, even if only as complimentary players. Going into the 2012 season all we had was Scheifele and Lowry, who were both several years away at that time.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So what, Enstrom was some big prize, guy lived of his 2010-2011 season with the Thrashers, he sure never came close to that or as advertised with the Jets, remember when some called an elite PP specialist , I’m still waiting to see that!

Enstrom continued to score pretty well through the 15 season and then dropped off. He played pretty well defensively except in the 15 PO against Anaheim - when he was playing with only 1 arm. He wasn't much good after that.

 

[tbcwpg]

I agree it was much different then. I think it is better now. The total basket of assets is much stronger now.

But I do know where you are coming from. It is easy to cast our current situation as being pretty dire. Assuming we move on from PLD, Scheif and Helle (that is assuming we have no real choice) we would have no starting goalie, no top 6C, and a weak D corps.

Going into the 2011/12 season we had a young 2C in Little. No other top 6C. Now we would have a young 2C in Perfetti. Is there much difference there? Then we had an inadequate goalie, just like we would have now. Our D then was Buff and some guys. Buff hadn't yet figured out how to be the Dman he became a couple of years later. Now we would have JMo and some guys. Very different styles, obviously but JMo now is probably better than Buff was those first couple of years.

The difference would be the prospect pipeline. You may dismiss our prospect pool as not having any real difference makers but there are quite a few who will make it in the NHL, even if only as complimentary players. Going into the 2012 season all we had was Scheifele and Lowry, who were both several years away at that time.

Bryan Little had 3 and a half years of NHL experience when the Jets moved here. He had also already scored 31 goals in a full season. Perfetti hasn't lined up at C yet at all, not to mention he's had 2 semi-major injuries in his short career.

Buff had Enström to help him grow into the role and was also already a Stanley Cup winner.

Atlanta had a prospect pipeline but they just threw them into the lineup right away. Bogosian was a 2008 draft pick. Evander Kane was an 09 pick. Burmistrov was 2010. All in the starting lineup when the puck dropped here in 2011.

I think the Jets have very big plans for McGroarty. Apart from him, it's a lot of players that filled out rosters like Buffalo and Edmonton (pre-McDavid).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Haven't seen a draft thread that's not a few years old, so I guess this is where this would go.

I was Winnipeg for the HF Habs: - 2023 Early Bird 15th Annual Mock Draft (Round Seven) .

I usually go on the team forum and post the results to see how happy/mad people would be with that draft. Here is what the few picks your team has garnered:
18. Winnipeg: Calum Ritchie (C) - Oshawa Generals (OHL)
82. Winnipeg: Ethan Miedema (LW) - Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)
146. Winnipeg: Matyas Melovsky (C) - Baie-Comeau Drakkar (QMJHL)
153. Winnipeg (from NYR): Ivan Remezovsky (LD) - SKA-1946 St. Petersburg (MHL)
210. Winnipeg: Mikhail Ye. Ilyin (F) - Cherepovets (KHL/MHL)

Happy? Mad? Meh?

The first 3 are all ranked higher by McKenzie so I guess it is pretty good. After that? meh

 

[Treb]

I did gamble a lot on those last two.