Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II
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Groo
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Simek is never going to shine on a stat sheet
And he doesn't belong on the neg list
jarr92
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- May 7, 2013
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Groo
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jarr92
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- May 7, 2013
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Dawg I've watched every second. I've been a fan of Simek, but that doesn't change how many chances and shots he is allowing this season. Personally I've liked his play, as he's had some nice hits and has assisted with the tank. In terms of winning NHL games, he isn't helping much.
Groo
Registered User
He playing his best hockey in years. He isn't hurting us. He's been an asset on the back end. Like I said. He's not the type that shows up on a stat sheet
jarr92
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- May 7, 2013
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Without using any stats or evidence to prove your point, you are essentially saying "take my word for it, he's good."
In 21 games he has played so far, the Sharks with Simek on the ice 5v5 are -59 on shots and -41 on scoring chances.
In Simek’s defense (in a small way) he’s has the second lowest offensive zone start %, the lowest neutral zone start %, and the highest on the fly shift start %. So he’s had maybe slightly tougher deployments than the other Dmen.
All that said, Benning and Vlasic have roughly equivalently defensively skewed deployment numbers and are getting arguably much better results, depending on how you feel about xGF% vs. actual GF%.
I’ve seen it sometimes argued that xGF% tells a less luck bound view, but I’d say the discrepancies between actual and xGF% for the Sharks D corps is entirely inline with how much each player actually influences what’s happening on the ice (Vlasic’s defensive play in an otherwise average offensive player would actually be pretty valuable, Benning could be worth something if he just had a few more tools/brains, Karlsson’s offensive gifts put points on the board when other D wouldn’t, Ferraro and especially Simek are offensively limited and don’t really offset that in the defensive end).
Anyways, Radim Simek is a nice story, a sometimes fun, but mostly underwhelming player to watch. He’d be fine as a 6-7th D if that didn’t also describe all our other Dmen not named Karlsson.
All that said, Benning and Vlasic have roughly equivalently defensively skewed deployment numbers and are getting arguably much better results, depending on how you feel about xGF% vs. actual GF%.
I’ve seen it sometimes argued that xGF% tells a less luck bound view, but I’d say the discrepancies between actual and xGF% for the Sharks D corps is entirely inline with how much each player actually influences what’s happening on the ice (Vlasic’s defensive play in an otherwise average offensive player would actually be pretty valuable, Benning could be worth something if he just had a few more tools/brains, Karlsson’s offensive gifts put points on the board when other D wouldn’t, Ferraro and especially Simek are offensively limited and don’t really offset that in the defensive end).
Anyways, Radim Simek is a nice story, a sometimes fun, but mostly underwhelming player to watch. He’d be fine as a 6-7th D if that didn’t also describe all our other Dmen not named Karlsson.
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Interesting stats…the Hertl line is killing it and Quinn is feeding them ozone starts. Do people see this as a line that could lead this team in the playoffs in the future or is trading Meier a better option? I would hate to trade Meier and spend years trying to recreate a line like this, especially with LaBanc fitting in as a nice complimentary piece.
Actually on second look, it’s not even arguable. Vlasic and Benning, with slightly more difficult deployments, are murdering Simek’s whole city according to GF% and xGF%.
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Damn those numbers are 44-5 are pretty solid. Pretty impressed given that I expected them to be a solid third pair that struggles in tougher minutes. Huge oof as expected for Simek, Ferraro, Cicek, and Megna. I wonder how much Megna is dragging down Karlsson's numbers...how does that data look for Karlsson with other partners (not that other options are all that better)?
I think, among the forwards, the biggest stories of the season so far are Labanc doing well in that complimentary role with Meier and Hertl. These stats for Labanc are very encouraging, and I think reflective of what I see when I watch the team play (that he’s still leaving something on the table, but it’s much less than in recent seasons, and on the whole still very good)
I think the second story is that Couture, in the face of very defensive utilization relative to the rest of the forwards, armed with limited wingers in Nieto and Barabanov, continues to be opportunistic and is on track for a solid-ass season.
Lorentz is the Benning of forwards in that he’d be something if he had more finish/tools/brains to his game.
I think the second story is that Couture, in the face of very defensive utilization relative to the rest of the forwards, armed with limited wingers in Nieto and Barabanov, continues to be opportunistic and is on track for a solid-ass season.
Lorentz is the Benning of forwards in that he’d be something if he had more finish/tools/brains to his game.
Most of this passes the eye test. Not a surprise that Labanc contributes a lot more when he's not playing bottom-6 minutes with guys who lack skill. Hertl and Meier have looked good, and their numbers show that. Kunin, Lindblom, Bonino, Svechknikov, and Gregor have mostly sucked so not a surprise there either. Lorentz seems like a solid 4th liner, no surprise there.
Kind of surprised that a 2nd line with Barabanov and Nieto flanking Couture is somehow doing well via the eye test and not awful in the analytics department, I figured their analytics would be bad. Also would have thought that Sturm's numbers would be better...maybe Sturm was just riding a hot streak with those goals.
OrrNumber4
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- Jul 25, 2002
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Interestingly enough, Karlsson is doing better with Megna than without. Megna, is not getting as good results without Karlsson (shocking, I know) but there’s a significant uktilization gap, with Karlsson get almost 70% OZS without Megna, Megna getting 40% OZS starts without Karlsson, and them getting 60% when paired together.
I’d actually say that Megna is doing pretty well in his role as Karlsson sidekick. Basically he’s doing a good job using his size and physicality to compliment Karlsson, plays a no frills safe game, defers to Karlsson for breakouts, and keeps pucks alive in the offensive zone.
Maybe Middleton did it better when he was here, maybe? I’m too lazy to look it up. But certainly, all the other partners the Sharks have put with Karlsson haven’t been as good a fit as Megna.
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I’d not include Kunin in with the rest of that group. Him and Sturm are the two forwards that IMO the analytics are least matching the eye-test. I think Kunin could have at least 3/4/5 more goals with some luckier breaks.
I think Sturm has played well enough after the hot start and just has had the puck not go in for him. Just looking at his 5v5 TOI relative to other forwards it looks like he’s getting 3rd line minutes and I wonder if he’d be more valuable as part of good fourth line. If it didn’t leave a giant gaping hole in the middle of the roster I’d love to see a 4th line of Kunin, Sturm, and Lorentz at some point.
I want to like Svechnikov because of his size, physicality, and I like that he goes to the net and he seems to have a sneaky good shot when he can get it off. But he seems otherwise replacement level.
Gregor is heartbreaking because he has so much speed and a good shot that he refuses to use. I hope he can remake his game ala Nieto after he left the Sharks. It seems to me there is a useful bottom 6 player within him if he can mature his game.
Bonino is cooked, and Lindblom doesn’t look to be anything like what Grier was hoping for (acknowledging it was a low-risk reclamation project signing to begin with)
I wonder if Sturm being promoted to 3C coincided with the drop-off in his numbers as he's probably much better suited for a 4C role. Gregor has looked better the past week, so will be curious to see if his #s trend up if he keeps this up. Disagree about Kunin...he takes a lot of dumb penalties, hits people, scores some goals by going to the net, and doesn't do much else. Haven't really seen him effectively protect the puck, extend zone time, create scoring chances, etc. so not too shocking to see his #s stink.
- Jun 23, 2020
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Sturm is a 4C forced to play higher because we don't have a capable 3C. It's not surprising he's struggled a bit with the tougher competition.
hohosaregood
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- Sep 1, 2011
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I was definitely thinking about all these guys having resurgent analytical seasons and I think in hindsight, Boughner is a much worse head coach than I gave him credit for
Groo
Registered User
I also watch all the games. What I don't watch are stat sheets
I guess I just know what to look for
Hodge
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- Apr 27, 2021
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Terrible in the sense that it would be highway robbery by the Sharks and the Panthers would never even consider it. Lundell is as sure a bet to be a future stud 1C as there is in the league. Also Bob is not waiving his full NTC to come here.
Crewouse
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- Mar 30, 2016
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"check this out... let's go HF mode here."
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