If that is the best return offered, would you still trade Timo for that package instead of offering him a contract for 8 years at $9M?
Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II
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Hodge
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- Apr 27, 2021
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I would literally rather not qualify Meier and let him walk for nothing as a UFA this summer than sign him for 9x8.
I admire your clear and extreme position and I disagree. I think not only is his value more than that now but with the rising cap, we could get at least that return in trade 4-5 years from now. At late 1st, a B prospect and a mid pick is very light return for a core player like Timo.
Hodge
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Even with the rising cap there’s no chance a team would give up legit assets just to pay Meier $9M/year for his 31-35 year old seasons.
This is the perfect time to cash in on Timo. The team sucks, his next contract negotiation is going to be a nightmare and he’s playing well enough that we probably can get a 1st and another piece in return.
Also remember you’re not just getting a 1st, a B prospect and a mid pick…you’re also getting $9-10M in cap space for the next 8 years.
I don’t consider that trade to be “cashing in.” If his negotiations are a nightmare, I agree that we should trade him for the best return we can get. However, if he wants to stay and is willing to sign a reasonable 8*9 deal. I would sign him.
Hodge
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For what purpose? This team will continue to suck for the rest of Meier's prime and then will be stuck holding the bag on a 9M cap hit contract for a winger in his 30s when they might actually be trying to compete again.
tiburon12
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I know why it hurts him now, that's why I think it's worth considering alternatives.
He would have more value because playing on his QO means that his negotiating leverage for his next contract is reduced by a considerable amount. Thus, there might be more interested acquiring teams looking at him as either a A) pure rental, or B) a pending UFA they can negotiate with on their terms.
Take away the threat of the QO and he is more attractive, since the result of if he doesn't want to sign with the acquiring team is the same, QO or not (he walks); him as an asset is more valuable because he has less leverage and the negotiating will be less of a headache for the acquiring team
I think the teams that would be interested in Meier are looking for a “difference maker” to solidify a top 6 for either extending or opening a contention window. The fact is there is an extremely limited supply of players of Meier’s caliber on the market at any given time. Fundamentally, any team looking at Meier is acknowledging they aren’t likely to fill that role internally; at least not in the timeframe they need for their window.
Of course every GM would love to sign high value players to contracts that only capture their prime years without any of their higher-risk mid 30s years. Part of the Art of GMing is identifying the appropriate time and players where you put your chips on the table and go for it, pay the price to add that extra piece that puts you over the top. Frankly, it fails more than it works (because ultimately it only “works” for up to one team per year) but under the same criteria so do most moves GMs make.
PPGish power forwards that can carry the puck don’t grow on trees (that Evander Kane is still in the league is testament enough to this). I’m confident there is both a market for Timo at 8x$9M and that he’d take a deal in that range.
All that said, I agree this season is the best time to get the most value for Timo, as the acquiring team gets one extra playoff run this season AND can secure one of his prime years without one of his mid 30s, presumably, down years (vs. fighting to sign him on the open market). Additionally, they get to negotiate under the context of a flat cap that has yet to start inflating versus two seasons from now when the cap will have resumed its upwards trajectory.
Lastly, due to Meier’s unique QO situation and the reasons above - this is one of the few times in the NHL where a sign and trade MAY actually make sense for all parties involved, made more interesting that the Sharks could (I presume) easily retain the maximum on Timo’s current contract.
In any form of a Meier trade, and really with any trades that sell for futures, I’d hope that Grier explores taking picks 2/3 years from now on top of prospects, with the aim of extracting greater overall potential value from the picks (since farther future picks hold slightly less immediate value), and spinning the roulette wheel that a current contender has an unexpected fall from grace (see Karlsson trade). Any trade of Meier signifies a rebuild and I’d hope that would be undertaken with a longer-view over an emphasis on immediacy.
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OrrNumber4
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Let me play devil's advocate.
Say the Sharks get lucky and draft Bedard this season, and let's say he hits the NHL full-steam ahead (so a "superstar" by his d+2 season).
If the Sharks have traded Karlsson et. al, they now have to waste years of Bedard trying to build around him, But if they have Karlsson, they have a superstar defenseman and the second critical piece of that two-superstar-core. Along with Meier as the power forward, Hertl as the #2C, and plenty of forward depth...with a decent goalie and a solid top-4 defenseman, that's a contending team.
Say the Sharks get lucky and draft Bedard this season, and let's say he hits the NHL full-steam ahead (so a "superstar" by his d+2 season).
If the Sharks have traded Karlsson et. al, they now have to waste years of Bedard trying to build around him, But if they have Karlsson, they have a superstar defenseman and the second critical piece of that two-superstar-core. Along with Meier as the power forward, Hertl as the #2C, and plenty of forward depth...with a decent goalie and a solid top-4 defenseman, that's a contending team.
- Oct 12, 2020
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This 100%.
They need to have veterans (hopefully the elite ones) around guys like Bedard/Fantilli. I think you only trade Meier OR Karlsson IF you get a return that can help the team in this year draft and next season.
All defencemen except Karlsson are 3rd pair guys unfortunately, even Ferraro seems to project that way. It's unfortunate that our only top 4 projected defencemen are both injured right now (Laroque, Havelid) so that really messes up the overall view of future defence. You could argue Merkley will be a 2nd pair RD, but he'll probably be more of a 2nd PP guy, that doesn't take big minutes.
OrrNumber4
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While hoping for the possible, you have to prepare for the probable...from everyone in the prospect pool right now, the Sharks will probably get 1-2 top-half-of-the-lineup guys (excluding goalies).
It bears repeating...look at how many players who tore apart their junior/college/European leagues are now struggling in the AHL, much less the NHL?
- Oct 12, 2020
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Very true, that's why in case of Timo Meier trade I'd want them to target a young upcoming defencemen rather than a forward. 2023 draft is full of very potential forwards, that's why it's important to try to stack up on defence as much as you possibly can in other routes (through trades etc.)
OrrNumber4
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Can you imagine if the Sharks had pulled the trigger on Burns-for-Robinson back in 2020?
Hodge
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How the hell is that a contending team with a grand total of ONE top four defenseman (who also happens to be 33, made of glass and one of the worst defensive players in the NHL) and ZERO decent goalies signed past this season?
The die is already cast on the next 4.5 seasons thanks to Dougie and son. If we are lucky enough to draft Bedard we will waste his entire ELC and probably a year or two after that as well. The goal needs to be setting the team up for the greatest possible success from 2027 (when the Karlsson, Couture and Vlasic contracts have finally expired) onward and that means not adding yet another long term liability to the cap sheet in Meier.
Stewie Griffin
What the deuce
^ I agree with Hodge here. Even if we get draft luck and land Bedard, we're no where near a contending team. Even with Karlsson, that's an 11.5M cap hit for a guy that could fall to injury/regress from what he is doing this year. Expecting this current form Karlsson moving forward into his 30s will only set us up for failure. You're also assuming we acquire forward depth, improve the top-4 defense, and get a decent goalie...that is all very unlikely to do by Bedard's d+2 season. The fastest rebuild I can think of in the last decade or 2 was the Leafs, and that's because they signed Tavares to 11M to come in (which we don't have cap space to do) and look at their cap problems the last few years because of accelerating their rebuild. At the end of the day, we're in for a long-ish ride until we actually start drafting a future core.
Gecklund
Registered User
Are we still expecting Karlsson to be at the superstar level in 2-3 years? Even if he is a superstar, we have no top 4 D outside of him so are we expecting Laroque/Havelid/Merkley (those are the only 3 I think have top 4 potential) to be top 4 D? Also are our forwards REALLY good enough?
Eklund-Bedard-xxx
Couture-Hertl-Gushchin?
xxx-Bystedt-Bordeleau
whoever
xxx-EK
xxx-Laroque
Cicek-Merkley?
Think we need a lot to go right even if Bedard is a superstar and all of our older players keep up their levels.
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So dallas just set the price range for meier by signing roope hintz to a 8 year 8.45 per year contract.
Stewie Griffin
What the deuce
Yep Hintz is a C with the same age and similar track record. Factoring in state tax, etc. Meier should come in around 8x8-9
Meier has also shown he can do it multiple times already also, hintz is just working on his 2nd, while meier is working on his 3rd season.
LadyStanley
Registered User
I don't expect Karlsson to be a Shark next season honestly but I do expect his caliber of play to be elite through his deal. I just expect injuries to also factor in. The Sharks are a long way off even with Bedard from competing but you have to start somewhere and they need to grab the best available talent wherever they draft the next few years and hope that one is an elite forward and one is an elite defenseman then start filling in the gaps when those foundational pieces are steering the ship whenever that may be.
Gecklund
Registered User
I think I can agree or at least understand everything said here. Few thoughts with that:
1. I don’t think EK gets moved. Even in the off-season I just don’t see any team able to afford him and remain competitive.
2. Yes I can get behind the his play is elite throughout his contract. Honestly he’s not doing too many things different this season than any of the years as a Shark. It just feels like instead of these things just missing their mark, he’s hitting the player or the puck is just going in. I think a lot of that is the change of system from Quinn and the big guys getting used to him. I think the biggest thing with him are the injuries like you mentioned. Even if his play is elite, if you’re only getting 50 games from hom, is it worth it?
3. Even if we get let’s say Kiviharju (top prospect next year) AND keep EK, our defense still isn’t good enough. I think we need 3-4 more at least second pairing guys to come in.
4. Those foundational pieces are the big reason why I’m hoping for one of Bedard, Fantilli, or Carlsson. Having that potential 1C would be huge for this team especially if Eklund can turn into that 1W.
You don't see any team able to afford him? I can see quite a few teams able to afford him in the offseason even Florida. The Sharks are going to be plenty flexible on any Karlsson deal that goes down. Maybe not to the point of retaining 50% but a similar figure to what Burns did and probably taking back a contract. Like I can see the Sharks trading Karlsson to Florida for Montour, Samoskevich, and a 2nd with like two mil retention. Yeah, it adds about 6 mil to Florida's cap but they have 12 mil going into the offseason in space and can probably find someone to take on any of Duclair or Reinhart or some other forward with a decent cap figure to make it work if it's not in the Sharks deal specifically.
I agree that even if we kept Karlsson and got Bedard and Kiviharju that our defense isn't good enough but the pieces you'd be looking to fill in the gaps with aren't terribly scarce. If you're going to make a run at it because you kept Karlsson and added those two talents, you're looking at secondary pieces that tend to be available either through trade or free agency depending on the patience you'd like to exercise.
WTFetus
Marlov
Eh, Hintz was PPG in the COVID shortened season. I'd say they're both working on their 3rd great season.
Appreciate the exercise, but to add to what others have already said, I also don't see us getting Bedard with Karlsson et al staying either. It would have to be a big fire sale (Meier, Karlsson, Reimer) for that to happen. Anaheim has 1 regulation win in almost 25 games.
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