Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[Barrie22]

The Sabres didn't make the playoffs since 2010-11.

I know it hasn't been plain sailing, but they are going to be a very good team for a while now. We need to be patient.

The sabres are an outlier when it comes to rebuilds, they were supposed to be done the Eichel rebuild like 4 years ago. But now Eichel is gone and they are onto a new rebuild. Then they also had a rebuild before Eichel was drafted that got changed to it starting once Eichel was drafted.

They keep going around and around in circles because they are to impatient, and start making dumb trades or signings to speed up the process.

 

[Lebanezer]

I watched this team win 11 games in a whole season. The next year, they made the playoffs, beat the heavily favored Redwings and were a crossbar away from beating the Mapleleafs.
Some here talk, as if they know, that it’s going to take X amount of years, rubs me the wrong way.
No one knows. This is why they play the games. No one knows how a player will turn out. Who knew Pavelski would be the player he has been? Clowe? Braun? Wingels? There’s more of them out there.

Pavs might be the outlier of all outliers. He has a legitimate shot to end his career with the most points from the much heralded 2003 draft class. It’s a wonderful story, and the rarity is not something that should be lost when looking at a draft. What he’s doing is less likely than the appearance of a Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, MacKinnon, McDavid etc.

 

[Hodge]

Doing some quick math and even if we retain 50% on Karlsson (probably not happening) and the cap only rises to $90 million by 2025-26 we will have over $50 million in cap space that season after accounting for Hertl, Couture, Vlasic, Benning, Burroughs and Eklund’s actual contracts and assuming maxed out ELCs for Smith and let’s say Musty.

So in 25-26 we could buy an elite forward for 10M, spend another 10M buying a third line, 7M apiece on two top four defensemen, 8M on goaltending and still have enough cap space left over to fill out the rest of the roster.

Obviously that scenario requires players worthy of those cap hits hitting the trade or UFA markets and being willing to sign with the Sharks but that just helps illustrate how much flexibility we will have to reshape the roster after this coming season. There’s no reason we can’t become a solid playoff team by 2026.

 

[Desert Eagle]

Maybe Boston will be interested in Couture with some retention after Bergeron`s decision?

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

Doing some quick math and even if we retain 50% on Karlsson (probably not happening) and the cap only rises to $90 million by 2025-26 we will have over $50 million in cap space that season after accounting for Hertl, Couture, Vlasic, Benning, Burroughs and Eklund’s actual contracts and assuming maxed out ELCs for Smith and let’s say Musty.

So in 25-26 we could buy an elite forward for 10M, spend another 10M buying a third line, 7M apiece on two top four defensemen, 8M on goaltending and still have enough cap space left over to fill out the rest of the roster.

Obviously that scenario requires players worthy of those cap hits hitting the trade or UFA markets and being willing to sign with the Sharks but that just helps illustrate how much flexibility we will have to reshape the roster after this coming season. There’s no reason we can’t become a solid playoff team by 2026.

The problem with this rosy scenario is that star players almost never move as UFAs. Try a hypothetical exercise: go through this summer's UFAs and try to find players to fill the 6-8 slots you want to fill in your scenario. I can only do it with a bunch of guys in their 30s, which is no way to build a team for the long haul. UFAs are useful for filling a few specific holes in the rosters; they are not a way to build a team.

When star players move because they are becoming UFAs, it is through trades, not free agency. Those trades, often made a year or so before the player becomes a UFA, require assets--prospects or picks. Because Wilson left the cupboard bare, the Sharks do not have the depth of prospects and picks to make such trades. I agree with you that Grier has done well in his first year to restock the pipeline of prospects, but they are several years away from playing major roles in the team (except for Eklund).

 

[Cas]

The problem with this rosy scenario is that star players almost never move as UFAs. Try a hypothetical exercise: go through this summer's UFAs and try to find players to fill the 6-8 slots you want to fill in your scenario. I can only do it with a bunch of guys in their 30s, which is no way to build a team for the long haul. UFAs are useful for filling a few specific holes in the rosters; they are not a way to build a team.

When star players move because they are becoming UFAs, it is through trades, not free agency. Those trades, often made a year or so before the player becomes a UFA, require assets--prospects or picks. Because Wilson left the cupboard bare, the Sharks do not have the depth of prospects and picks to make such trades. I agree with you that Grier has done well in his first year to restock the pipeline of prospects, but they are several years away from playing major roles in the team (except for Eklund).

I looked for defensemen whose contracts are ending as UFAs, who were no older than 28 now, and who scored 45 points this year. I found six options between now and 2030 (some of whom are not now or ever will be legit #1D, and some will resign with their current teams, and others will be past 30 by the time they reach free agency).

Of course, other players will move up into this category, but it's going to necessarily be rare. Perhaps one 1D, maybe two, will be available every off-season, whether via free agency or trade, and not all of them will work out after the fact.

Counting on signing Heiskanen or Makar in the future is kind of silly. The same is true for forwards, just a little less so. We should proceed with the goal of developing someone, and only look to add when we are close to competing (which is going to be a while).

 

[Hodge]

The problem with this rosy scenario is that star players almost never move as UFAs. Try a hypothetical exercise: go through this summer's UFAs and try to find players to fill the 6-8 slots you want to fill in your scenario. I can only do it with a bunch of guys in their 30s, which is no way to build a team for the long haul. UFAs are useful for filling a few specific holes in the rosters; they are not a way to build a team.

When star players move because they are becoming UFAs, it is through trades, not free agency. Those trades, often made a year or so before the player becomes a UFA, require assets--prospects or picks. Because Wilson left the cupboard bare, the Sharks do not have the depth of prospects and picks to make such trades. I agree with you that Grier has done well in his first year to restock the pipeline of prospects, but they are several years away from playing major roles in the team (except for Eklund).

I agree that UFAs are typically not worth their contracts and you certainly can’t rely on free agency alone to build a team but there are some intriguing names set to hit the market over the next two offseasons. If the Sharks can sign 1 or 2 of Reinhart, Nylander, Ehlers, Hanifin, Provorov and Hellebuyck to reasonable deals that will do a lot to propel the team forward competitively.

But of course the trade market has historically been the more reliable way to acquire stars outside of the entry draft and I disagree that the Sharks will still be bereft of assets starting next offseason. We will have our 2025 and 2026 1sts, the conditional NJ 1st, our own 2nds plus any extras obtained through deadline deals, Musty, Bystedt, Mukhamadullin, Thrun, Lund, Halttunen and Havelid as assets that should be highly valued around the league. Depending on the quality of the acquisition target, Eklund, Smith and our 2024 1st could also be on the table.

It’s certainly too soon to start moving those pieces now and it probably makes sense to limit ourselves to UFA signings and trades involving 2nd rounders or lower next offseason. But if and when the next Eichel, Tkachuk, Dubois or DeBrincat wants out, we will have the assets and cap space to credibly bid for that player. Combined with 1 impact UFA signing and smart depth acquisitions that should be enough to make us a playoff team within the next 2-3 years.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Doing some quick math and even if we retain 50% on Karlsson (probably not happening) and the cap only rises to $90 million by 2025-26 we will have over $50 million in cap space that season after accounting for Hertl, Couture, Vlasic, Benning, Burroughs and Eklund’s actual contracts and assuming maxed out ELCs for Smith and let’s say Musty.

So in 25-26 we could buy an elite forward for 10M, spend another 10M buying a third line, 7M apiece on two top four defensemen, 8M on goaltending and still have enough cap space left over to fill out the rest of the roster.

Obviously that scenario requires players worthy of those cap hits hitting the trade or UFA markets and being willing to sign with the Sharks but that just helps illustrate how much flexibility we will have to reshape the roster after this coming season. There’s no reason we can’t become a solid playoff team by 2026.

You kind of illustrated the reason why we can't by then. The Sharks are not a team that can just buy free agents of that caliber. Even during our heyday, the Sharks most prominent blue line signings are Rob Blake at the end of his career when LA didn't want him anymore and Paul Martin. That's over a long period of time where we were very much Cup competitive. Elite forwards don't tend to be available in free agency anyway and when they do, our names are almost never involved. The goaltending is likely available. The 3rd line is likely available. The top four defensemen is possible but so far the look of that class of free agent defensemen doesn't look all that impressive.

I'm for the cap flexibility but I just don't know if that's the time to make that sort of move. Our blue line will likely be a pretty clean sheet at that point. We'll know what we have with Thrun and Mukhamadullin by then and maybe Laroque but the depth will need to be replenished and the top of the lineup is still looking pretty weak on the blue line. We'll see. Long time between now and then but I wouldn't commit to much then just because of the likelihood our blue line is still not really developed anything yet.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

I agree that UFAs are typically not worth their contracts and you certainly can’t rely on free agency alone to build a team but there are some intriguing names set to hit the market over the next two offseasons. If the Sharks can sign 1 or 2 of Reinhart, Nylander, Ehlers, Hanifin, Provorov and Hellebuyck to reasonable deals that will do a lot to propel the team forward competitively.

I will be surprised if more than 1 of these players makes it to UFA status. Try to name all the star players who became UFAs in their 20s; it's a short list.

But of course the trade market has historically been the more reliable way to acquire stars outside of the entry draft and I disagree that the Sharks will still be bereft of assets starting next offseason. We will have our 2025 and 2026 1sts, the conditional NJ 1st, our own 2nds plus any extras obtained through deadline deals, Musty, Bystedt, Mukhamadullin, Thrun, Lund, Halttunen and Havelid as assets that should be highly valued around the league. Depending on the quality of the acquisition target, Eklund, Smith and our 2024 1st could also be on the table.

You are assuming that all of our recent prospects will turn out better than their current projection. Some will probably disappoint and so not have much trade value even in a year or two. Trading a bunch of prospects and picks for stars on the market (the Doug Wilson move) works best when you have more prospects than places for them to play on the NHL team. The Sharks will not be in that position for several more years.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I will be surprised if more than 1 of these players makes it to UFA status. Try to name all the star players who became UFAs in their 20s; it's a short list.



You are assuming that all of our recent prospects will turn out better than their current projection. Some will probably disappoint and so not have much trade value even in a year or two. Trading a bunch of prospects and picks for stars on the market (the Doug Wilson move) works best when you have more prospects than places for them to play on the NHL team. The Sharks will not be in that position for several more years.

Yeah this sort of issue is very much magnified on the blue line where we have a lot of holes either now or upcoming and a lot of question marks on filling them.

We hope that we have guys like Mukhamadullin, Thrun, Havelid, and Laroque but lots of the other guys we also have in our system on the blue line are longer shots than even those guys who have long odds of being top of the lineup impact players that they need to justify a move forward on competing. But defensemen do also have the longest leash on this sort of stuff with more of a wide range of where they can end up.

 

[Levie]

Maybe Boston will be interested in Couture with some retention after Bergeron`s decision?

Hertl would be a better fit. But if Joe Will weren't a complete moron it probably would have already happened.

 

[TheBeard]

Hertl would be a better fit. But if Joe Will weren't a complete moron it probably would have already happened.

I actually agree that Couture would be a better fit. They need a grittier guy who isn't afraid to put his face in front of a puck to block it. Logan's got the proven post-season resume.

 

[Hodge]

I will be surprised if more than 1 of these players makes it to UFA status. Try to name all the star players who became UFAs in their 20s; it's a short list.

I used those specific players as examples because Hellebuyck and Hanifin have already stated they are not extending with their current teams, Reinhart and Nylander are very likely to be cap casualties and Ehlers and Provorov play for teams that have historically struggled to retain UFAs.

Many of them may end up traded and signing an extension with their new team but it's not unrealistic to expect a majority of that list to hit the market. It's not like I'm pretending the Sharks have a chance to sign Matthews, Marner or Draisaitl.

You are assuming that all of our recent prospects will turn out better than their current projection. Some will probably disappoint and so not have much trade value even in a year or two. Trading a bunch of prospects and picks for stars on the market (the Doug Wilson move) works best when you have more prospects than places for them to play on the NHL team. The Sharks will not be in that position for several more years.

I'm not assuming any of those prospects will even play in the NHL but they all have value roughly equivalent to a late 1st/early 2nd round pick right now. Typically when players ask out a year or two before free agency, their team does not have enough leverage to demand a truly premium prospect and it ends up being a bundle of secondary futures like the assets I listed.

Those specific prospects may or may not hold their current value when we actually have an opportunity to make that sort of trade but between the potential for other prospects in our system to overperform and likely adding another 10+ prospects to the pool in 2024 we should have a surplus of assets to deal from. I agree we do not have more good prospects than roster spots right now but we're going to get there over the next year or two at least with the forwards.

I see the hopeful timeline as suck for another season to get another top 5 pick, then next offseason sign a significant UFA and try to acquire a youngish middle six F or middle pair D for a 2nd+3rd or equivalent assets, then aim for a bigger acquisition in summer 2025. Most likely we will remain a bad team for the rest of this decade but by no means is that a guarantee and that definitely shouldn't be the mindset of the front office or they'll be out of a job quickly.

 

[Levie]

I actually agree that Couture would be a better fit. They need a grittier guy who isn't afraid to put his face in front of a puck to block it. Logan's got the proven post-season resume.

There is the slight issue that Couture is not a 1st line center.

 

[Grinner]

I see the Avs as a better trading partner for Couture than Boston. Denver only needs a 2nd line center

 

[TheBeard]

There is the slight issue that Couture is not a 1st line center.

I don't really think Hertl is either.

 

[Pavelski2112]

I don't really think Hertl is either.

Hertl is probably a #1C, just not an elite one

 

[TheBeard]

Hertl is probably a #1C, just not an elite one

I think both are high-end 2Cs with different intangibles.

I think Logan does more with less.

 

[timorous me]

Hertl is probably a #1C, just not an elite one

Yeah, at least I think he could be a 1C again--but he's not a 1C who will carry a line himself. But could he perform admirably in that role with the added motivation of being on a good team and the added benefit of having Pastrnak on his wing? I think so.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

I actually agree that Couture would be a better fit. They need a grittier guy who isn't afraid to put his face in front of a puck to block it. Logan's got the proven post-season resume.

I really do doubt Couture waives until maybe the last or 2nd to last year of his deal. Vlasic is a lifer for sure unless he gets bought out but I've never thought Couture was that far behind from him. Dudes that like money, comfy lifestyle, beautiful area. I think Hertl waives before Couture ever does, so that may be the deciding factor. Couture still doesn't need retention and I also doubt his 3 teams can easily fit his cap.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Vegas is the first team in a long time that managed to trade/sign their way to a championship. I think it's an aberration, not a trend.

Regarding Hertl/Couture, ideally, they are first-line wingers to an elite center.

 

[Shark Finn]

I don't think Hertl is an ideal #1C but he'd definitely have the supporting cast in Boston.

 

[STL Shark]

I don't think Hertl is an ideal #1C but he'd definitely have the supporting cast in Boston.

Pasta would be far and away the best player that he’s ever played with and elevate him to a PPG+ player on that alone. Add in a rejuvenated player going from a losing team to Boston and an improved player from this last year (where he still had 63 points) and he could be an average 1C.

 

[Hodge]

Centers I would definitely take over Hertl next season (just on talent, ignoring contracts): McDavid, Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Matthews, Point, Barkov, Pettersson, Hughes, Crosby, Thompson, Hintz, Eichel, Aho, Kopitar, Malkin, Zibanejad, Hischier, Stutzle.

That’s only 18 centers. You could argue for up to 13 others (Lindholm, Larkin, Tavares, Dubois, Barzal, whoever else) and Hertl still lands within the top 32. He’s a 1C, full stop. Feels like people are letting one down year where he still scored at a 65 point pace shape their entire opinion of him.

 

[Erep]

I see the hopeful timeline as suck for another season to get another top 5 pick, then next offseason sign a significant UFA and try to acquire a youngish middle six F or middle pair D for a 2nd+3rd or equivalent assets, then aim for a bigger acquisition in summer 2025.

I feel like the plan is this, except move it back 1 more year. True tank this and next season, then start building it up. I fell like a optimistic but reasonable projection to becoming a top team would need 1 more top 5 pick quality forward and a true 1D prospect, and I think that is probably what Grier would target.