Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[STL Shark]

Having had a night to sleep on this post, I think you are right. We don't have defense prospects who look like they have a high probability to successfully play tough minutes. The same goes for forwards, though I give Eklund a decent chance with the right development and linemates. Missing out on Bedard, Fantilli, and Carlsson in this last draft really hurt the rebuild.

I think it is reasonable to expect Smith to be ready to play on a rebuilding Sharks team in 2024-25 (multiple years of college hockey are not going to make a huge difference given his skillset so get him turned pro as fast as possible). From there, it is probably at the end of his ELC (2026-27) where the team can realistically start getting into playoff contention and he plays like a real top 6 player.

By that point, EDM will either only have 1 of McDavid/Draisatl or have them both locked into such large deals that they're in even bigger cap hell than they are now. LA will still be pretty solid with the core they've built (though I have major questions about the ceiling of that group unless Byfield takes a major leap). Anaheim will be good as well with their stellar young core and being further along in their process with McTavish, Terry, Zegras, and Drysdale being NHL producers already with Carlsson, Mintyukov, and others coming.

SEA/CGY/ARZ/VAN will all probably be somewhere between below average to average which leaves the division pretty wide open should Smith/Eklund/Muk/Bystedy pan out to form the new core and Grier and Co. find a way to get a difference maker in the 2024 draft and utilize the cap space they're going to have post-Burns, Vlasic, Karlsson, and final year of Couture.

I wholly trust Grier to build out the depth pieces of the roster with solid pieces on good deals. It's how he goes about building out the top 6 and top 4 that will determine how quickly we are back competing. Have about half of the defense and 1/3 to 1/2 of the forward group right now if things go realistically well (aka not everyone hits, but Smith/Eklund/Bystedt and Muk/Thrun hit and maybe a surprise or two hit amogst Musty, Bordeleau, Gushchin, Robins, Lund, Havelid, Fisher, Haltutunen, etc.)

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Prospects are just assets. The vast majority will not play for the Sharks, or have meaningful NHL careers in general, but if cashed in at the right time they can help us acquire high end players.

Our prospect pool has vastly improved compared to a year ago and I would expect similar improvement a year from now assuming we land another top 5 pick. At that point, we should start moving some of those prospects as well as future picks for any good young players who are available. That's why it's important to dump as much of Karlsson's contract as possible without taking back big multiyear dumps.

While I agree with the goal, I just don't see it happening and I don't see them having the sort of pieces in place that make it worthwhile to start moving prospects and picks. If they identify a young core that they can build around then sure but outside of Eklund and Smith, nobody is worth betting on yet.

 

[STL Shark]

Prospects are just assets. The vast majority will not play for the Sharks, or have meaningful NHL careers in general, but if cashed in at the right time they can help us acquire high end players.

Our prospect pool has vastly improved compared to a year ago and I would expect similar improvement a year from now assuming we land another top 5 pick. At that point, we should start moving some of those prospects as well as future picks for any good young players who are available. That's why it's important to dump as much of Karlsson's contract as possible without taking back big multiyear dumps.

I think 2022-23 into 2023-24 represents the bottom and then Grier starts to climb out of the bottom next summer. That said, without being able to really move future assets yet, it's tough to say how far out of the bottom he will be able to get until the team goes from Bottom 5 into closer to the 10-12 range.

I'd guess the first step will to be more aggressive in free agency in 2024 to try and bring in a core piece or two and then see where the team is at heading into the 2024-25 deadline with Smith, Eklund, Muk, Thrun, Bystedt and another youngster or two on the NHL roster looking to be insulated with real NHL players.

 

[Lebanezer]

It's too bad the Sharks didn't win the lottery in 2015. That would've helped a lot.

 

[Hodge]

While I agree with the goal, I just don't see it happening and I don't see them having the sort of pieces in place that make it worthwhile to start moving prospects and picks. If they identify a young core that they can build around then sure but outside of Eklund and Smith, nobody is worth betting on yet.

Hopefully we're lucky enough to draft a future 1C or 1D in 2024 and can build around that player, Smith and Eklund but we can't count on that. There are obviously huge advantages to a homegrown core given the constraints of the salary cap but if we aren't able to do that we need to get creative and acquire a new core using the prospects, picks and cap space we're accumulating.

Last season and this coming season are essentially an asset harvest for us to get as many futures as we can for Burns, Meier, Karlsson, Duclair, Barabanov and possibly Couture if he's willing to waive. If we complete this phase successfully we should be in good position to start trading some of the harvested assets for established players. We will likely still be a very bad team in 2024-25 but the goal should be to show some improvement and depending on how that goes start pushing more chips to the middle.

 

[Alaskanice]

I watched this team win 11 games in a whole season. The next year, they made the playoffs, beat the heavily favored Redwings and were a crossbar away from beating the Mapleleafs.
Some here talk, as if they know, that it’s going to take X amount of years, rubs me the wrong way.
No one knows. This is why they play the games. No one knows how a player will turn out. Who knew Pavelski would be the player he has been? Clowe? Braun? Wingels? There’s more of them out there.

 

[Gecklund]

I watched this team win 11 games in a whole season. The next year, they made the playoffs, beat the heavily favored Redwings and were a crossbar away from beating the Mapleleafs.
Some here talk, as if they know, that it’s going to take X amount of years, rubs me the wrong way.
No one knows. This is why they play the games. No one knows how a player will turn out. Who knew Pavelski would be the player he has been? Clowe? Braun? Wingels? There’s more of them out there.

I totally understand your overall point and don’t necessarily disagree with it. I think some of us are accepting the more likely fate. For every Pavelski, Clowe, Braun, Wingels, etc. there’s twice as many failures. I mean Karlsson (even though he won the Norris, I’d consider his time here a failure), Nyquist, Kane, Jeremy Roy, Nick Petrecki, Ty Wishart, Dahlen, etc.

Again I totally understand your point and I think it is fair to have that opinion. I think it’s just as fair to think the opposite though. I mean the most recent of those was Wingels (who I loved) but was a fourth liner. Sharks haven’t had many overachieving prospects in recent years. Knyzhov? Maybe you could classify Ferraro there but he hasn’t been very good since his rookie year. I could be forgetting someone in my sick haze but I think the point still stands.

 

[Cas]

I watched this team win 11 games in a whole season. The next year, they made the playoffs, beat the heavily favored Redwings and were a crossbar away from beating the Mapleleafs.
Some here talk, as if they know, that it’s going to take X amount of years, rubs me the wrong way.
No one knows. This is why they play the games. No one knows how a player will turn out. Who knew Pavelski would be the player he has been? Clowe? Braun? Wingels? There’s more of them out there.

Of course no one knows. If I knew, I'd be posting from my mansion on a diamond-encrusted telephone.

Not knowing, for a certainly, does not make a sober and rational assessment of the team's current position, what it needs to have to be expected to get into a playoff position, how it can acquire what it needs to have, and how long it should expect that acquisition process to take, any less reasonable.

It also has nothing to do with what we want. What I want is Eklund to turn into Kucherov and Kahkonen into Hasek as we win the Cup, but no rational assessment of our chances should expect that.

I want to have a realistic, reasonable, and sober assessment of our chances and future. That is my assessment - we need another Smith and another Eklund, plus a 1D prospect, or we need to acquire established players who can replace them, plus we need more depth. I don't see how we can acquire all three without three years of drafting and development, unless we just get lucky and Alex Young turns into another Pavelski (which is roughly the equivalent of a winning lottery ticket, and we all know what a retirement plan consisting of buying lottery tickets is - foolish).

 

[Painful Quandary]

I think it is reasonable to expect Smith to be ready to play on a rebuilding Sharks team in 2024-25 (multiple years of college hockey are not going to make a huge difference given his skillset so get him turned pro as fast as possible). From there, it is probably at the end of his ELC (2026-27) where the team can realistically start getting into playoff contention and he plays like a real top 6 player.

By that point, EDM will either only have 1 of McDavid/Draisatl or have them both locked into such large deals that they're in even bigger cap hell than they are now. LA will still be pretty solid with the core they've built (though I have major questions about the ceiling of that group unless Byfield takes a major leap). Anaheim will be good as well with their stellar young core and being further along in their process with McTavish, Terry, Zegras, and Drysdale being NHL producers already with Carlsson, Mintyukov, and others coming.

SEA/CGY/ARZ/VAN will all probably be somewhere between below average to average which leaves the division pretty wide open should Smith/Eklund/Muk/Bystedy pan out to form the new core and Grier and Co. find a way to get a difference maker in the 2024 draft and utilize the cap space they're going to have post-Burns, Vlasic, Karlsson, and final year of Couture.

I wholly trust Grier to build out the depth pieces of the roster with solid pieces on good deals. It's how he goes about building out the top 6 and top 4 that will determine how quickly we are back competing. Have about half of the defense and 1/3 to 1/2 of the forward group right now if things go realistically well (aka not everyone hits, but Smith/Eklund/Bystedt and Muk/Thrun hit and maybe a surprise or two hit amogst Musty, Bordeleau, Gushchin, Robins, Lund, Havelid, Fisher, Haltutunen, etc.)

OK, the division being bad and having perpetually mismanaged teams is a good argument for making the playoffs earlier than 2028. However, I just don't see the current group of prospects as producing a contender, there isn't a 1C or top-pairing defensive prospect in there. The best ceiling-wise is Smith, who is likely to be a 2C or first line winger assuming there aren't major problems in his development. The one advantage I do see in the prospect pool is there is a lot of depth, and if that depth can be parlayed into acquiring a star-level player looking for a trade, like what Vegas did with Eichel, then the Sharks are in a good position to do so. The problem is even though these situations happen frequently enough, there is no guarantee the timing will match the Shark's or that the potential player will be the right fit for how the team is construct. The next two drafts will be key for creating a contender, hopefully with a bit of luck the Sharks can get that 1C/1D prospect.

 

[SjMilhouse]

I watched this team win 11 games in a whole season. The next year, they made the playoffs, beat the heavily favored Redwings and were a crossbar away from beating the Mapleleafs.
Some here talk, as if they know, that it’s going to take X amount of years, rubs me the wrong way.
No one knows. This is why they play the games. No one knows how a player will turn out. Who knew Pavelski would be the player he has been? Clowe? Braun? Wingels? There’s more of them out there.

I just prefer to set more reasonable expectations in my head so I'm not disappointed by what I fully expect to be 5-7 more years of pain before expecting the playoffs or even playoff success

But yeah they could win the cup next year, it's just not a thought worth considering to me because of how unlikely it would be.

 

[STL Shark]

OK, the division being bad and having perpetually mismanaged teams is a good argument for making the playoffs earlier than 2028. However, I just don't see the current group of prospects as producing a contender, there isn't a 1C or top-pairing defensive prospect in there. The best ceiling-wise is Smith, who is likely to be a 2C or first line winger assuming there aren't major problems in his development. The one advantage I do see in the prospect pool is there is a lot of depth, and if that depth can be parlayed into acquiring a star-level player looking for a trade, like what Vegas did with Eichel, then the Sharks are in a good position to do so. The problem is even though these situations happen frequently enough, there is no guarantee the timing will match the Shark's or that the potential player will be the right fit for how the team is construct. The next two drafts will be key for creating a contender, hopefully with a bit of luck the Sharks can get that 1C/1D prospect.

I think Smith is the 1C prospect. I agree that there isn't a 1D prospect, but I also think that is overvalued when it comes to merely being a playoff team. There are tons of playoff teams annually that lack that if they have a deep enough roster in other areas and a solid enough overall D group.

I'm not saying that I expect the team to be 2019 level good by 2027, but I think they can be 2022-23 LA Kings level good enough by that time with a few prospects likely to hit actually hitting along with a couple of prudent trades or UFA signings. The roster will also have either a Hertl or Couture (likely Hertl due to term on his deal) around that will be at worst a 3C by that point in time. Gives you Smith, Bystedt, and a 33 year old Hertl down the middle. Add in a Musty, Eklund, and couple UFAs and a surprise later round prospect making it and suddenly the top 9 looks playoff caliber.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Hopefully we're lucky enough to draft a future 1C or 1D in 2024 and can build around that player, Smith and Eklund but we can't count on that. There are obviously huge advantages to a homegrown core given the constraints of the salary cap but if we aren't able to do that we need to get creative and acquire a new core using the prospects, picks and cap space we're accumulating.

Last season and this coming season are essentially an asset harvest for us to get as many futures as we can for Burns, Meier, Karlsson, Duclair, Barabanov and possibly Couture if he's willing to waive. If we complete this phase successfully we should be in good position to start trading some of the harvested assets for established players. We will likely still be a very bad team in 2024-25 but the goal should be to show some improvement and depending on how that goes start pushing more chips to the middle.

I hope for team success but I’m very pessimistic on the timeline. I don’t have much confidence in finding core players through trades or free agency at this stage but it is possible.

 

[Sandisfan]

Brb writing a draft of the inevitable "Is this sharks team a dynasty?" thread for the main boards

Where do you want us to send the Flowers?

 

[DG93]

2026-2027 is a good goal for the playoffs imo: add 2 top-5 picks in 2024/2025 -> 2025-2026 is a fun, young team -> 2026-2027 make the playoffs with a core of Smith, Eklund, 2024 + 2025 top-3 picks, and 1-2 of Musty, Bystedt, 2024/2025 late 1sts from Karlsson trade vs Devils 2024 1st round pick (I'm betting that 1-2 of those become core pieces)

 

[jMoneyBrah]

I totally understand your overall point and don’t necessarily disagree with it. I think some of us are accepting the more likely fate. For every Pavelski, Clowe, Braun, Wingels, etc. there’s twice as many failures. I mean Karlsson (even though he won the Norris, I’d consider his time here a failure), Nyquist, Kane, Jeremy Roy, Nick Petrecki, Ty Wishart, Dahlen, etc.

Again I totally understand your point and I think it is fair to have that opinion. I think it’s just as fair to think the opposite though. I mean the most recent of those was Wingels (who I loved) but was a fourth liner. Sharks haven’t had many overachieving prospects in recent years. Knyzhov? Maybe you could classify Ferraro there but he hasn’t been very good since his rookie year. I could be forgetting someone in my sick haze but I think the point still stands.

No to dispute your overall sentiment, as I largely agree - but for every Pavelski, Clowe, Braun, etc there are way more than twice as many failures. It’s probably closer to 10x or 20x. It probably isn’t empaphasized enough how successful the Sharks were with their late round picks for like 10 years and how big a part that was of their run of being a contender.

Also, I’m not a fan of attaching failure to Karlsson for his time here, because it’s both not over yet, and the reasons the Sharks have sucked balls doesn’t have all that much to do with Karlsson.

 

[llamanby]

Summer is lasting to long. Need this EK trade to happen so everyone will have something to talk about.

I know there was disappointment over where we ended up drafting, but it went from the best and deepest draft in recent memory, to only getting a 2nd liner with the 4th pick.

 

[Gecklund]

No to dispute your overall sentiment, as I largely agree - but for every Pavelski, Clowe, Braun, etc there are way more than twice as many failures. It’s probably closer to 10x or 20x. It probably isn’t empaphasized enough how successful the Sharks were with their late round picks for like 10 years and how big a part that was of their run of being a contender.

Also, I’m not a fan of attaching failure to Karlsson for his time here, because it’s both not over yet, and the reasons the Sharks have sucked balls doesn’t have all that much to do with Karlsson.

You’re right about the 10x.

Im not talking about the Sharks current situation at all. He was injured half the time here and they never won the cup. They lost Stutzle and Norris for him. I don’t know any way you can classify it as not a failure except this season which I don’t know how you can say anything about this season was a success.

 

[WTFetus]

I could win the lottery this week that's not a reasonable expectation. I don't think it rubs my family the wrong way that I keep going to work every day in the meantime either.

 

[Jargon]

I’m an optimistic realist. Optimistically, I can see a world where everything goes right, and we have an Eklund - Smith - Musty // Lund - Bystedt - Guschin top 6 with a Couture - Hertl - Zadina (for fun) 3rd line and in 2 years we blow into the playoffs and do some damage.

I can also see a world where our lack of significant defensive prospects hold us back for another 3 years or our forward prospects don’t pan out like we want them to.

Realistically, I expect 3-4 years before we have a team that’s competing at all. Optimistically, who knows what can happen and when. It’s why I keep watching.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

You’re right about the 10x.

Im not talking about the Sharks current situation at all. He was injured half the time here and they never won the cup. They lost Stutzle and Norris for him. I don’t know any way you can classify it as not a failure except this season which I don’t know how you can say anything about this season was a success.

None of those things are within Karlsson control to affect (maybe the injury situation, but I’m hesitant to blame an athlete for their injuries). The Sharks went to the Conference Finals his first year here and he was a big part of that. After that the org made not wonderful decisions, COVID, etc. I’d totally say the Sharks failed during Karlsson’s time here so far, but I’d not say Karlsson is a failure.

 

[hohosaregood]

I’m an optimistic realist. Optimistically, I can see a world where everything goes right, and we have an Eklund - Smith - Musty // Lund - Bystedt - Guschin top 6 with a Couture - Hertl - Zadina (for fun) 3rd line and in 2 years we blow into the playoffs and do some damage.

I can also see a world where our lack of significant defensive prospects hold us back for another 3 years or our forward prospects don’t pan out like we want them to.

Realistically, I expect 3-4 years before we have a team that’s competing at all. Optimistically, who knows what can happen and when. It’s why I keep watching.

There are a lot of defensive prospects this year. We could end up with Smith showing a hobey baker caliber season that makes us more comfortable going with a potential 1D defensive pick like Levshunov in the top 5. I think our current defensive prospects generally have 2nd pair potential so I think that could make for a cozy future on defense.

 

[Shark Finn]

It's too bad the Sharks didn't win the lottery in 2015. That would've helped a lot.

Or this year..

 

[KirbyDots]

Or this year..

Or ever. Work under the assumption that we're never winning the lottery.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

The Sabres didn't make the playoffs since 2010-11.

I know it hasn't been plain sailing, but they are going to be a very good team for a while now. We need to be patient.

 

[tiburon12]

The Sabres didn't make the playoffs since 2010-11.

I know it hasn't been plain sailing, but they are going to be a very good team for a while now. We need to be patient.

I know they will be good, but i also like need to see it to believe it with that franchise haha