Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

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Hodge

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I made the point elsewhere, but we should act as though we expect our window of real contention to open around 2030 (perhaps making the playoffs by 2028).

This is going to be true regardless of what management does or wants.
It's reasonable for fans and outside observers to expect that but I really hope the front office doesn't think this way. Their goal should always be to turn the Sharks into a true contender as soon as possible.

That doesn't mean trading 1sts or top prospects or signing expensive UFA vets to sneak the current core into a wild card spot. When Grier took over he didn't have much of a choice other than to ride out the first 2-3 seasons just to burn some years off the Karlsson and Vlasic contracts and wait for the flat cap to be lifted. Then Karlsson scored so many points that he actually became tradeable.

If we can maximize the amount of cap relief we receive in the trade, especially in 2024 and beyond, I would be okay with taking a hit on the quality of assets we're getting back. By the end of next season we should have plenty of valuable assets so if we can pair that with plenty of cap space it's possible to acquire multiple star level pieces. Pettersson was just one example but from 2024-2026 there are a ton of relatively young elite players set to hit the UFA and "RFA" (with 1 year left and arb rights) markets.

I'm guessing Grier feels similarly which is why we don't seem to want to retain more than 20-25% of the contract. The stalemate is likely because we are trying to extract as much value as possible without increasing our multiyear cap commitments and being told that Karlsson at 8.5-9.5 million isn't worth a hell of a lot.
 

Cas

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I think they make the playoffs by 26
That'd be nice, but I don't see it. Eklund probably isn't going to be a major contributor until 24. Smith probably isn't going to debut until 25 and not turn into a major contributor until 26. The same is going to hold true with anyone else in the system - if they hit, it won't be until 25 for the older group and 26 for the newest bunch.

We also don't have a 1D in the system, unless someone greatly surpasses expectations. Hopefully we draft them next year, but that pushes them back to 26 or 27, minimum (probably more like 27 or 28), before they're impactful. Trade or FA is possible, but expensive and difficult.

I just don't see how we bring in a new set of impact players before the 26 or even 27 seasons. Realistically, I think by 27, we will be where Ottawa, Buffalo, or Detroit are now - close to playoff contention but not having gotten there yet.

I suspect we get to the playoffs in 28 and are a serious Cup contender around 2030, if everything goes right. Our cupboard is just still too bare and too underdeveloped, which makes sense as our rebuild only started six months ago.
 

Bizz

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We're Cup Favorites by 2025. Book it.

We can't really do much this year with as much as 7M potentially in dead cap space, or next with ~5M. Lots can happen from between now and the 2025 Playoffs.
 

Painful Quandary

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I made the point elsewhere, but we should act as though we expect our window of real contention to open around 2030 (perhaps making the playoffs by 2028).

This is going to be true regardless of what management does or wants.
Having had a night to sleep on this post, I think you are right. We don't have defense prospects who look like they have a high probability to successfully play tough minutes. The same goes for forwards, though I give Eklund a decent chance with the right development and linemates. Missing out on Bedard, Fantilli, and Carlsson in this last draft really hurt the rebuild.
 

TheBeard

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I suspect we get to the playoffs in 28 and are a serious Cup contender around 2030, if everything goes right. Our cupboard is just still too bare and too underdeveloped, which makes sense as our rebuild only started six months ago.
If that happens that'll be gross mismanagement. You're talking about a ten year window between playoff appearances. All of the prospects we have will be mid-twenties minimum. If they're not getting the job done by 2026 LATEST then the entire scouting department needs to go.
 

PacificOceanPotion

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If that happens that'll be gross mismanagement. You're talking about a ten year window between playoff appearances. All of the prospects we have will be mid-twenties minimum. If they're not getting the job done by 2026 LATEST then the entire scouting department needs to go.
Facts. If we aren’t making the playoffs until 20 frickin 30…That’s just ridiculous.
 
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Pavelski2112

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If that happens that'll be gross mismanagement. You're talking about a ten year window between playoff appearances. All of the prospects we have will be mid-twenties minimum. If they're not getting the job done by 2026 LATEST then the entire scouting department needs to go.
The Sharks will probably be making the playoffs by then, considering they're in the worst division in hockey, but a Cup contender? I don't see it but there's always time.
 

jarr92

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The Sharks will probably be making the playoffs by then, considering they're in the worst division in hockey, but a Cup contender? I don't see it but there's always time.
How does one define a cup contender? Was Seattle a cup contender being one game away from the Western Conference Finals? IMO cup contender and cup favorite are two different things. With some luck, the Sharks could get to Seattle's level in 2-3 years.
 

Mafoofoo

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The Sharks will probably be making the playoffs by then, considering they're in the worst division in hockey, but a Cup contender? I don't see it but there's always time.

Knyzhov is gonna be the next Lidstrom
Eklund is basically Peter Forsberg
Smith is Patrick Kane but a center
Musty is Owen Nolan
Muk is a pretty powerful Poison type Pokémon

I don’t see how the team ever loses again once all those players are on the roster
 

one2gamble

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It isn’t based only on prospects. Free agents and trades will happen. We are going to have a lot of cap space and Grier will make some moves.
This is why I dont see them not making a playoff push in 26, regardless of whether its the right decision or not. Thats about when I expect them to turn the corner from building to trying to win games. It might not work but the pacific still wont be all that great by then
 

Cas

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It isn’t based only on prospects. Free agents and trades will happen. We are going to have a lot of cap space and Grier will make some moves.
I don't think we get a legit 1D via free agency. There aren't going to be very many even available over the next few years.

Trade, maybe - it'll be expensive, though, and we can't count on it ever happening.

Getting one through the draft is what I'd expect, but they won't be ready until 25-26 at the absolute earliest (and probably not for a couple years later - someone like Levshunov probably won't be a legit 1D until 27-28).

We really should have cut the cord and started the rebuild in earnest three years ago. That might have cut the bad years in half. Realistically, we are in Year 1 of the rebuild now and have a long way to go to even get a decent pipeline of top-end talent before we can even consider adding high quality free agents or trade targets into the mix.
 
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hohosaregood

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I would guess Will Smith's sophomore NHL season is the soonest we'll be vying for a playoff spot. So I'm guessing 2027. Bottom out the next 2 years, prospects start to become core players. The top end kids enter the lineup between 26-27. And they start making legit playoff pushes in 27-28. Go full contender by 2030.
 
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Barrie22

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I don't think we get a legit 1D via free agency. There aren't going to be very many even available over the next few years.

Trade, maybe - it'll be expensive, though, and we can't count on it ever happening.

Getting one through the draft is what I'd expect, but they won't be ready until 25-26 at the absolute earliest (and probably not for a couple years later - someone like Levshunov probably won't be a legit 1D until 27-28).

We really should have cut the cord and started the rebuild in earnest three years ago. That might have cut the bad years in half. Realistically, we are in Year 1 of the rebuild now and have a long way to go to even get a decent pipeline of top-end talent before we can even consider adding high quality free agents or trade targets into the mix.
2 top line prospects
2 2nd line prospects
2/3 3rd line prospects

2 2nd pairing prospects

And that is just the ones that are voted in the top 9.
 

Cas

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2 top line prospects
2 2nd line prospects
2/3 3rd line prospects

2 2nd pairing prospects

And that is just the ones that are voted in the top 9.
And of those, odds are half will disappoint or bust entirely. Yes, I think Smith and Eklund will work out, but out of the rest of that group, we probably get one middle-six forward, a couple bottom six forwards, and a middle-pairing defenseman.

Our pool needs to double that over the next two years (including graduated prospects).
 

Hodge

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Prospects are just assets. The vast majority will not play for the Sharks, or have meaningful NHL careers in general, but if cashed in at the right time they can help us acquire high end players.

Our prospect pool has vastly improved compared to a year ago and I would expect similar improvement a year from now assuming we land another top 5 pick. At that point, we should start moving some of those prospects as well as future picks for any good young players who are available. That's why it's important to dump as much of Karlsson's contract as possible without taking back big multiyear dumps.
 
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TheBeard

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The Sharks will probably be making the playoffs by then, considering they're in the worst division in hockey, but a Cup contender? I don't see it but there's always time.
Go look at any bottom team from 2018 and tell me which of those you would have predicted would be cup contenders.
 

sharski

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Knyzhov is gonna be the next Lidstrom
Eklund is basically Peter Forsberg
Smith is Patrick Kane but a center
Musty is Owen Nolan
Muk is a pretty powerful Poison type Pokémon

I don’t see how the team ever loses again once all those players are on the roster
Brb writing a draft of the inevitable "Is this sharks team a dynasty?" thread for the main boards
 
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