Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[jMoneyBrah]

Just because you can’t read doesn’t mean I didn’t put numbers.

Your numbers are nice, but how do they show that any of these prospects “cannot be worse than Ferraro”?

Also, this is the second time you’ve made personal attacks at me, which that’s your prerogative, but I’ve done no such thing to warrant it.

 

[Gecklund]

Your numbers are nice, but how do they show that any of these prospects “cannot be worse than Ferraro”?

Also, this is the second time you’ve made personal attacks at me, which that’s your prerogative, but I’ve done no such thing to warrant it.

Where’s the personal attack? You didn’t read what I wrote. So I wrote you didn’t read what I wrote. Would love to know where the first is too.

Ferraro’s number are so bad that if any of the prospects numbers are worse the on ice impact is the same. But again considering you can’t be bothered to read what I wrote, no point in discussing this with you.

Ferraro’s leadership is all fine and dandy but do we really want the young guys learning from guys who have so little hockey intelligence? Ferraro is one of the best examples of all tools no tool box. He has good skating, he’s willing to put his body on the line, he can move the puck well enough, he’s strong, he can hit but he can’t do these things at the same time. He needs to learn when to use these things and how to use them effectively or he will never be anything more than he is now. He’s basically Mirco Mueller 2.0 but showed more promise in his first year but has regressed harder since.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Not to mention...how many defensemen just in the history of the Sharks struggled at around this stage of their careers and managed to turn it around? Stuart, Murray, Hannan, Ehrhoff, Carle, Demers, DeMelo...it's clearly a common issue. Even players like Braun and Vlasic, who didn't exactly regress, weren't exactly progressing...

The last defenseman I can think of who didn't turn it around was Andrei Zyuzin.

So to be clear, you’re saying that you think Ferraro will turn it around?

I can’t speak to the players traded from the Sharks or developed before my time (Stuart, Hannan, Carle, young Murray), but none of the others struggled the way Ferraro is struggling.

I was always a fan of Ehrhoff, Demers, and DeMelo. They may have been “struggling” according to the coaches and fans at the time, but the numbers say otherwise. All three of those guys were top-4 defenseman (in my eyes) when they were traded from the Sharks. Vlasic plateaued, but he was still a very good second pairing D when he was rumored to be available (the great Ehrhoff vs. Vlasic debate). Braun too never really struggled, just stopped progressing for a year (mostly due to playing with Colin fricking White and/or Kent Huskins…) before continuing his development.

Ferraro is truly sub-replacement level right now. Like, if it weren’t for his name, his draft pedigree, his history, and the fact that he’s well-liked, he wouldn’t be in the NHL. None of the players you listed were ever as bad as Ferraro right now.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

Where’s the personal attack? You didn’t read what I wrote. So I wrote you didn’t read what I wrote. Would love to know where the first is too.

Ferraro’s number are so bad that if any of the prospects numbers are worse the on ice impact is the same. But again considering you can’t be bothered to read what I wrote, no point in discussing this with you.

Ferraro’s leadership is all fine and dandy but do we really want the young guys learning from guys who have so little hockey intelligence? Ferraro is one of the best examples of all tools no tool box. He has good skating, he’s willing to put his body on the line, he can move the puck well enough, he’s strong, he can hit but he can’t do these things at the same time. He needs to learn when to use these things and how to use them effectively or he will never be anything more than he is now. He’s basically Mirco Mueller 2.0 but showed more promise in his first year but has regressed harder since.

I think saying that I’ve “got my fingers up my butt” is both a weirdly crude response in a conversation about a hockey player and something of an unprovoked personal attack. Then apparently, even though I’ve been able to actively participate on this forum for over a decade you’ve determined I’m incapable of reading.

I’ve presented my opinions thoughtfully and respectfully. I’ve articulated clearly where and how I disagree with your perspective.

Look, I don’t think we actually see things all that differently. I’m far from advocating that Ferraro is untouchable. Alls I’m saying is that other defensemen have had struggles and breakthroughs at similar stages in their careers and that before we eject Ferraro into the sun, how about we see some of these prospects actually show what they can do on North America pro ice before we annoint them. I hardly think any of that is controversial - yet you keep coming hard at me.

 

[Sysreq]

But by the numbers no they can’t. Ferraro is a 7D by the numbers. Even if they are the Sharks have 3 other guys who again are not worse on the left side already.

Seems like a bit of a jump. I don’t think Ferraro should be our #2 D. They are playing him out of his depth and it’s showing. But he is an NHLer and probably fits well in the middle pairing. I don’t think they are doing him any favors by pairing him with Pouliot, Harrington or Simek though.

I get the sense he is being expected to “lead” the pair, but he isn’t exactly there yet. I think he does better next to someone who already knows what they are doing. He is young though. All that comes with time.

 

[Gecklund]

I think saying that I’ve “got my fingers up my butt” is both a weirdly crude response in a conversation about a hockey player and something of an unprovoked personal attack. Then apparently, even though I’ve been able to actively participate on this forum for over a decade you’ve determined I’m incapable of reading.

I’ve presented my opinions thoughtfully and respectfully. I’ve articulated clearly where and how I disagree with your perspective.

Look, I don’t think we actually see things all that differently. I’m far from advocating that Ferraro is untouchable. Alls I’m saying is that other defensemen have had struggles and breakthroughs at similar stages in their careers and that before we eject Ferraro into the sun, how about we see some of these prospects actually show what they can do on North America pro ice before we annoint them. I hardly think any of that is controversial - yet you keep coming hard at me.

We can leave it here because I never said to eject Ferraro into the sun. I actually said to use Lunkvist’s deal as a comparable.

Seems like a bit of a jump. I don’t think Ferraro should be our #2 D. They are playing him out of his depth and it’s showing. But he is an NHLer and probably fits well in the middle pairing. I don’t think they are doing him any favors by pairing him with Pouliot, Harrington or Simek though.

I get the sense he is being expected to “lead” the pair, but he isn’t exactly there yet. I think he does better next to someone who already knows what they are doing. He is young though. All that comes with time.

He’s not been the number 2 though. He’s been third pair. And getting caved in.

 

[OrrNumber4]

So to be clear, you’re saying that you think Ferraro will turn it around?

I can’t speak to the players traded from the Sharks or developed before my time (Stuart, Hannan, Carle, young Murray), but none of the others struggled the way Ferraro is struggling.

I was always a fan of Ehrhoff, Demers, and DeMelo. They may have been “struggling” according to the coaches and fans at the time, but the numbers say otherwise. All three of those guys were top-4 defenseman (in my eyes) when they were traded from the Sharks. Vlasic plateaued, but he was still a very good second pairing D when he was rumored to be available (the great Ehrhoff vs. Vlasic debate). Braun too never really struggled, just stopped progressing for a year (mostly due to playing with Colin fricking White and/or Kent Huskins…) before continuing his development.

Ferraro is truly sub-replacement level right now. Like, if it weren’t for his name, his draft pedigree, his history, and the fact that he’s well-liked, he wouldn’t be in the NHL. None of the players you listed were ever as bad as Ferraro right now.

How much of the numbers (or even the eye-test) look like that because the Sharks were a good team back then, and a horrible team right now?

I guess ultimately I feel confident that Ferraro can turn it around. He's playing worse than he did as a 20-year-old rookie...that's highly unusual given he hasn't had any major health issues. His issues appear to stem from the mental side of the game; there's a real chance he figures things out and snaps back into a quality middle-pairing guy.

 

[Juxtaposer]

How much of the numbers (or even the eye-test) look like that because the Sharks were a good team back then, and a horrible team right now?

I guess ultimately I feel confident that Ferraro can turn it around. He's playing worse than he did as a 20-year-old rookie...that's highly unusual given he hasn't had any major health issues. His issues appear to stem from the mental side of the game; there's a real chance he figures things out and snaps back into a quality middle-pairing guy.

Part of it is team quality, definitely. But there are many bad defensemen on this team who look better than Ferraro, both by the eye test and the numbers. Relative to his teammates, even on this unfortunate team, Ferraro is awful.

I’d like to believe in Ferraro. Most of the 2019-2020 season is a blur in my memory (for good reason…), but I specifically remember Ferraro along with Hertl being about the only guys that I didn’t constantly scream at my TV about. It’s just hard to imagine a player who looks this bad rebounding. And even if he does rebound, he’s at best a solid middle-pairing LHD. Not really someone who is going to make a difference either way.

Since we aren’t in a competitive season (and won’t be for at least a couple years), I don’t mind keeping Ferraro. But if someone were to offer something good for him I would have no qualms about taking it and risking that he does rebound with another team.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Since we aren’t in a competitive season (and won’t be for at least a couple years), I don’t mind keeping Ferraro. But if someone were to offer something good for him I would have no qualms about taking it and risking that he does rebound with another team.

In that, we agree. If someone offers a first-round pick, then go for it. But I'd rather bet on Ferraro rebounding than go for a 2nd or 3rd.

 

[Jargon]

In that, we agree. If someone offers a first-round pick, then go for it. But I'd rather bet on Ferraro rebounding than go for a 2nd or 3rd.

I agree, and I think right now it’s mostly because this team needs cheerleaders in that room so that they don’t hate playing hockey. Ferraro is good at that.

 

[Levie]

I agree, and I think right now it’s mostly because this team needs cheerleaders in that room so that they don’t hate playing hockey. Ferraro is good at that.

From my point of view it looks like Ferraro hates playing hockey.

 

[Jargon]

From my point of view it looks like Ferraro hates playing hockey.

I think hockey doesn’t like the way he plays it, I think Ferraro loves hockey the way he loves everything he does - at 140%.

 

[one2gamble]

I would have moved Mario for a 2nd straight up but I also understand why the sharks wouldn't

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

We might see Muk and Sasha come over next week. Ufa just got eliminated by a complete underdog in the first round. Chmelevski seems to have kept improving this season and had like half his teams playoff goals so I hope he's still in the plans.

 

[STL Shark]

Okay, given where the team is and where they are headed I’d definitely take a first for Ferraro. That said, I think some are wildly undervaluing his play and vastly overestimating how easy he’d be to replace from within our system.

To suggest that he isn’t an NHL player is laughable. Likewise, to suggest he could be replaced by Thrun “today” is similarly hyperbolic.

A few things to note: Ferraro is still only 24. He’s still in the age range that most young dmen are still putting their game together. He’s only ever been on bad Shark teams and the only “good” dman he’s every spent considerable time playing with is Burns. I believe his motor and shot blocking commitment are valuable and rare traits - and some of the other aspects of his defensive game can still be improved at this stage of his career (though, I’d not expect to see significant growth in his offensive game).

Lastly, this team is so bad. They’ll likely continue to be bad, if not worse, in the coming season(s). That does and will take a toll on the team psyche. I imagine there is some value in having leaders in the locker room who still find a way to make showing up everyday something to enjoy. I’m not in the room, so I can’t comment with certainty - but I don’t get the impression that Couture is that type of leader. Hertl somewhat. I get the impression Bonino was one of those guys. I also suspect Mario is definitely one of those guys.

Short of getting an unexpected haul for Ferraro - and with none of the prospects, as of this moment, knocking on the door to take his place - I don’t see any reason to move Ferraro. Let’s see if he can add to his game and let’s have the young prospects prove they can outperform him in camp or in the AHL before we just anoint them as mainstays on the Sharks.

Goes back to this being the same people for the most part that swore that Tim Heed was a far superior player than "not even an NHLer" Dylan Demelo. Player evals on the internet mostly suck, particularly when it's a position and role that isn't just correlated to points as a default eval metric.

 

[spintops]

I would have moved Mario for a 2nd straight up but I also understand why the sharks wouldn't

This. I think Mario is a NHL player but I take the pick and cap space.

 

[STL Shark]

In that, we agree. If someone offers a first-round pick, then go for it. But I'd rather bet on Ferraro rebounding than go for a 2nd or 3rd.

Ferraro has gotten crap support from a development standpoint. Thrust into the deep end with Burns playing top pairing minutes in his second year with a COVID year layoff. Do that for two years and then play the blender game with a host of bottom pairing/AHL quality players that don't thrive as puck movers.

His game isn't a fit for Karlsson as he's too aggressive to work with an aggressive player like Karlsson. If you're keeping him around, finding him a steady partner that can move the puck but plays a more honest and simple game is what he needs to succeed in a "2nd pairing" role (2nd pairing on a bad team which equals 3rd pairing on a playoff team).

Where things are difficult is that right now he and Vlasic are basically at the same level as #5 D-Men that need a similar partner to succeed. Someone has to play the extra minutes and it makes sense to play the younger guy that works hard and is in impeccable conditioning shape.

I'd see about moving him in a hockey deal or hold firm on the 1st round pick. Bad D-Men that play hard go for 2nd rounders as rentals at the TDL all the time. No reason to sell without getting something that makes a difference in return.

 

[STL Shark]

This. I think Mario is a NHL player but I take the pick and cap space.

Don't need cap space for a rebuild and Ferraro was literally drafted at 49th overall. Likely best case scenario is that a 2nd turns into a player of his caliber. I get the 2nd rounder used on him is already a sunk cost, but from a value standpoint he's worth more than the draft slot he was picked (which would be about what we got in return) with because unlike most picked in that range he's already proven to be an NHL player and is still young. Plus, he is signed to a reasonable deal for his skillset and role.

Lastly, we live in a world where Nils Lundkvist went for a 1st and 4th rounder last September. Ferraro is worth at least a 1st.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I think there would be no discussion about moving Ferraro if Vlasic wasn't under contract. Since Vlasic can't be moved, and we now have an abundance of depth LD, Ferraro is the only one that really makes sense to move from a value aspect. He's sort of just a guy who's making over 3M. While rebuilding we could put literally anyone else in his spot making under 1M and you probably wouldn't even notice.

If we move Karlsson and Ferraro how shitty would our D be next year? Lol

Knyzhov-Free Agent (hopefully)
Vlasic-Benning
Thrun-MacDonald
Simek/Okhotyuk/Pouliot as 7D

 

[Mattb124]

Ferraro’s number are so bad that if any of the prospects numbers are worse the on ice impact is the same.

It is hard to argue against that sort of logic.

 

[Gecklund]

It is hard to argue against that sort of logic.

Yeah it is considering it’s what the numbers I posted previously said. But no go off.

 

[Gecklund]

I think there would be no discussion about moving Ferraro if Vlasic wasn't under contract. Since Vlasic can't be moved, and we now have an abundance of depth LD, Ferraro is the only one that really makes sense to move from a value aspect. He's sort of just a guy who's making over 3M. While rebuilding we could put literally anyone else in his spot making under 1M and you probably wouldn't even notice.

If we move Karlsson and Ferraro how shitty would our D be next year? Lol

Knyzhov-Free Agent (hopefully)
Vlasic-Benning
Thrun-MacDonald
Simek/Okhotyuk/Pouliot as 7D

I hope we move Karlsson but at the same time I’ll believe it when I see it. I got my hopes up too with Tavares only to be let down. I’d move Ferraro for like a 2nd or a similar aged forward in the same situation. The only two forward prospects that I think should be on the team are Eklund and Kaut. Bordeleau Gushchin and Bystedt could hypothetically win a spot but I don’t think they do. I think they all need another year or two in the AHL. Swap Ferraro for like Casey Mittelstadt and roll with Vlasic, Knyzhov, Thrun down the left side with MacDonald rotating in.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Yeah it is considering it’s what the numbers I posted previously said. But no go off.

I realize that @Hodge was banned, but there's no need to mimic his waspishness; it isn't missed.

 

[Gecklund]

I realize that @Hodge was banned, but there's no need to mimic his waspishness; it isn't missed.

So to recap:

I say:
Ferraro has negative corsi every year
Ferraro consistently puts himself out of position with his “hustle”
Ferraro doesn’t play his off-side as much as we like to claim
Ferraro’s QoC shows he plays against third and fourth line players
Despite playing against bottom 6, Ferraro still gets caved in

I acknowledge:
Ferraro has not had the best partners
Ferraro does play his offside
Ferraro is liked in the room

The response:
WELL YOURE JUST MAD! I HAVE NO RESPONSE TO YOUR NUMBERS AND FERRARO HAS LEADERSHIP!

 

[Gecklund]

What do we think about buying out Simek this off-season? With Knyzhov coming back, Vlasic and Ferraro likely here to stay, MacDonald signed for cheap and multiple young guys knocking on the door, I just don’t see the space for him. It would save us 1.3M next year and then only cost 0.65M the season after.