2022/23 Roster Thread XX: Heading into the Homestretch

[Ghosts Beer]

MCCAGG SIGHTING

Also, scouts recommended Makar over Patrick? Citation needed. And no, Bob "I forgot his name" Clarke isn't a citation.

Bob Clarke was at the draft table. Were you?

You don't get to dismiss it just because you don't like him and what he said.

It had been reported in *multiple* places *years* before the Clarke interview that the scouts were split on Heiskanen and Makar, but their consensus was in favor of the two defensemen and against Patrick. But Hextall overruled them.

For example, both San Filippo and Meltzer reported it long before the Clarke interview.

After the Clarke interview, a reporter, I can't remember who, tweeted that he talked to a league source, and that Clarke was right that the scouts didn't want Patrick, but that it was Heiskanen not Makar whom they recommended.

Regardless, there has been enough reporting on this topic for a long time to believe with near certainty that Hextall chose Patrick of his own volition and against his scouts' preferences.

Pretending it's all a conspiracy and that Patrick was the team consensus choice is against the weight of the evidence. Same with acting like no team would have chosen a player other than Patrick at #2. McCagg's pre-draft article makes that clear.

 

[Striiker]

Sanheim is a magician.

There's people unironically saying that's thanks to an improved Ristolainen.

Well, not really "people"... more like reanimated lobotomized corpses, but still.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Sanheim is a magician.

Post the DeAngelo minutes.

 

[deadhead]

Sanheim is a magician.

GA/60 - xGA/60 [300 minutes 5x5]

Sanheim - Braun, 1.62 - 2.34
Sanheim - Risto 1.66 - 2.55
Seeler - Risto 2.77 - 1.98
Provorov - York 2.95 - 2.52
Provorov - TDA 3.03 - 3.60
Sanheim - TDA 3.44 - 3.63

So it's obviously due to Risto and Braun.

 

[freakydallas13]

Bob Clarke was at the draft table. Were you?

You don't get to dismiss it just because you don't like him and what he said.

It had been reported in *multiple* places *years* before the Clarke interview that the scouts were split on Heiskanen and Makar, but their consensus was in favor of the two defensemen and against Patrick. But Hextall overruled them.

For example, both San Filippo and Meltzer reported it long before the Clarke interview.

After the Clarke interview, a reporter, I can't remember who, tweeted that he talked to a league source, and that Clarke was right that the scouts didn't want Patrick, but that it was Heiskanen not Makar whom they recommended.

Regardless, there has been enough reporting on this topic for a long time to believe with near certainty that Hextall chose Patrick of his own volition and against his scouts' preferences.

Pretending it's all a conspiracy and that Patrick was the team consensus choice is against the weight of the evidence. Same with acting like no team would have chosen a player other than Patrick at #2. McCagg's pre-draft article makes that clear.

So other than Clarke saying they wanted Makar, and a journalist saying Clarke was incorrect and they actually wanted Heiskanen, you have no proof. Got it.

Do you have a single non-McCagg (McCagg still wanted Patrick at 5th btw) source that says Patrick wasn't a concensus top-2 pick pre draft?

 

[KINGKENZO]

Youre not correct on how youre assessing those reports. There was NO consensus on Patrick, Miro and a distantly, Makar. We have no idea whom wanted which player or, if say, you gave 5,3,1 pts in who you would prefer (NP, CM, MH) how the weighting looked. Hextall's job as GM is to make the decision and he took a talented center with pedigree. There are various reasons as to the why. But the story that "he didnt listen to his scouts", and Clarke's the scouts didnt want Patrick is pure bull-ish

 

[freakydallas13]

GA/60 - xGA/60 [300 minutes 5x5]

Sanheim - Braun, 1.62 - 2.34
Sanheim - Risto 1.66 - 2.55
Seeler - Risto 2.77 - 1.98
Provorov - York 2.95 - 2.52
Provorov - TDA 3.03 - 3.60
Sanheim - TDA 3.44 - 3.63

So it's obviously due to Risto and Braun.

Sanheim and Braun played 300 minutes together at even strength this season? I would not have guessed that.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

So other than Clarke saying they wanted Makar, and a journalist saying Clarke was incorrect and they actually wanted Heiskanen, you have no proof. Got it.

Do you have a single non-McCagg (McCagg still wanted Patrick at 5th btw) source that says Patrick wasn't a concensus top-2 pick pre draft?

As I said, it was reported by San Filippo and Meltzer long before the Clarke interview and the subsequent reporter tweet about Heiskanen.

The source that not all teams would have taken Patrick 2nd isn't based on McCagg's personal ranking, but from the league sources he cites within that same article.

Again, you can pretend it's a conspiracy all you want. The heavy weight of the evidence is that Hextall chose Nolan Patrick against the recommendations of the Flyers' scouts, and that Nolan Patrick was *not* a consensus top 2 throughout NHL teams and scouting circles.

 

[freakydallas13]

As I said, it was reported by San Filippo and Meltzer long before the Clarke interview and the subsequent reporter tweet about Heiskanen.

The source that not all teams would have taken Patrick 2nd isn't based on McCagg's personal ranking, but from the league sources he cites within that same article.

Again, you can pretend it's a conspiracy all you want. The heavy weight of the evidence is that Hextall chose Nolan Patrick against the recommendations of the Flyers' scouts, and that Nolan Patrick was *not* a consensus top 2 throughout NHL teams and scouting circles.

You haven't refuted anything I've said.

 

[captainpaxil]

Patrick was the beddard of his draft year. When the devils let him drop people thought they'd outsmarted themselves. I'd believe scouts liked the top defender over the number 2 center but once Patrick fell it was a done deal.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Whether Patrick was a mistake or not, I would place money on consensus - instead of the Flyers being smart, and going off the board.

It’s going to tell a lot whether Briere does anything to address the staff in drafting/development this summer.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

You're not going to do any better for a consensus strawpoll than Mckenzie's rankings. This is one of the oddest controversies I've ever seen.

Almost every non-McDavid player isn't a consensus pick if you take it down to the individual scout level. There were scouts that had Laine above Matthews. There were scouts that had Svechnikov above Dahlin. The same goes for Byfield above Lafreniere. Consensus doesn't mean unanimous. Stop being weird.

Didn't we just see this with Bedard in real time?

 

[FlyerNutter]

You're not going to do any better for a consensus strawpoll than Mckenzie's rankings. This is one of the oddest controversies I've ever seen.

Almost every non-McDavid player isn't a consensus pick if you take it down to the individual scout level. There were scouts that had Laine above Matthews. There were scouts that had Svechnikov above Dahlin. The same goes for Byfield above Lafreniere. Consensus doesn't mean unanimous. Stop being weird.

Didn't we just see this with Bedard in real time?

 

[FlyerNutter]

I would wager the order for say the top 4 this draft, is set fairly in stone.

The Flyers falling into a range where there is more ambiguity as to who the best available players are, is an area that this team falters in.

Consensus doesn’t mean unanimous, but the initial
Idea of trading up imo is very worth it for a team that struggles to find elite talent outside of for the most part gimme picks.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I just don't for the life of me understand why we assume these orgs make decisions as monoliths. It's like when someone says THIS BOARD thinks X. This board is a collection of utter lunatics and also Bern. We can't even agree that fruit is good.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Flyers draft Patrick - Hextall shoulda listened to the scouts.

Flyers draft literally everyone else - Why couldn't Hextall find any stars?

It's hilarious this is a thing. Yes, I'm sure the same team that drafted Provorov 7th overall in one of the best drafts ever was certainly pounding the table for an older, undersized defenseman from the AJHL.

 

[Chinatown88]

You're not going to do any better for a consensus strawpoll than Mckenzie's rankings. This is one of the oddest controversies I've ever seen.

Almost every non-McDavid player isn't a consensus pick if you take it down to the individual scout level. There were scouts that had Laine above Matthews. There were scouts that had Svechnikov above Dahlin. The same goes for Byfield above Lafreniere. Consensus doesn't mean unanimous. Stop being weird.

Didn't we just see this with Bedard in real time?

 

[FlyerNutter]

I just don't for the life of me understand why we assume these orgs make decisions as monoliths. It's like when someone says THIS BOARD thinks X. This board is a collection of utter lunatics and also Bern. We can't even agree that fruit is good.

I do think for the most part organizations show trends in how they draft, or should I say approach the draft.

More so, competence - and incompetence can be sniffed out.

Tangent - but I’d actually love more insight into who exactly does what, or their thinking when it comes to drafting. It’s a lot more interesting than who gets a team award.

 

[Limeyjim]

I've stayed away from this board during the past season and I see it hasn't changed everyone from complaining with each other about their personal opinions.
What I mostly saw from the past season is that the Flyers have very few players I'd protect in the off-season. Some of the younger players looked better as the season was ending, but overall they are a bunch of projects waiting to happen.
I like Carter Hart very much, but for his sake I think he should be traded, he is wasting his career on this failing franchise. I'd like to see Hart playing for a competitive team with a chance in the playoffs.
I know I'll be shouted down for that idea, but just saw a very gifted star player play most of his career on this failed franchise, and now that he is on the back end of his career he is on an equally bad team. I don't like seeing good talent wasted on franchises going nowhere.

 

[Flyer lurker]

MCCAGG SIGHTING

Also, scouts recommended Makar over Patrick? Citation needed. And no, Bob "I forgot his name" Clarke isn't a citation.

Heis you can make the case I will listen.
Makar is Clarke defending the current front office and rolling Hexy under the bus.

 

[deadhead]

At this point, couldn't care less about past mistakes, it's been a decade of futility, never committing to a rebuild, playing just good enough to have one top ten pick from 2012-2021, and when they luck into a #2, end up with Patrick instead of Suzuki. So incompetence and bad luck is a poor combination.

I think people have an exaggerated sense of the value of draft picks. Drafting is hard, even the best teams have their share of whiffs. If you land two starters (400 plus games, and even then, that includes players like Risto and PEB), you're doing good.

#7, #39, #71, #103, #135, #167, #199
Assuming Flyers had their normal complement of picks, expected value is 1.24 (400 games), 0.43 (All star).
Even a serious tank:
#3, #35, #67, #99, #131, #163, #195 - 1.57 (400 games), 0.68 (All star)
It just doesn't make a drastic change in the odds, yes, #1 might, but the lottery means you have to be lucky to get one, much less multiple #1 picks, and you still have to do so in the right season.

So you trade for 3 1st rd picks, (1) 16-25, (2), 26-32, 1.14 (400 games), 0.37 (All star).
Hit one, sorta whiff the second, totally whiff the third.

To turn it around, it'll not only take a couple more top 10 picks, trading for 1st and 2nd rd picks, but also smart trades and waiver wire moves. Even if you tank, you have to be brilliant (lucky) to build a team just through the draft in less than 6-8 years - and as Buffalo discovered, the first guys you draft are pushing to leave after an extended period of losing as they approach FA.

Which is why a good rebuild shouldn't take 6 years - that means you're relying on tanking, failing to find value and consistently picking high and hoping to get lucky. A rebuild (v a tank) is more about focusing on youth, finding value, looking for players blocked or undervalued elsewhere, and using accumulated picks both to draft and to acquire players in trades.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I once again will ask to please tell us WHEN the first report that the Flyers’ scouts wanted Heiskanen came out.

I will then once again ask to please tell us WHEN the second report that the Flyers’ scouts wanted Makar came out (aka the Clarke interview).

If you find those answers and use a little bit of critical thinking and look at the past 30 years of how this team has operated you MAY start to believe that something is off if you have an open mind.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I once again will ask to please tell us WHEN the first report that the Flyers’ scouts wanted Heiskanen came out.

I will then once again ask to please tell us WHEN the second report that the Flyers’ scouts wanted Makar came out (aka the Clarke interview).

If you find those answers and use a little bit of critical thinking and look at the past 30 years of how this team has operated you MAY start to believe that something is off if you have an open mind.

I've posted about the "when" a ton of times.

San Filippo article, Jan. 4, 2021: Nolan Patrick Officially Back with the Flyers, but He Doesn't Really Want to Talk About It

"There’s a reason he was picked No. 2 overall in the 2017 NHL entry draft, even if the consensus in the Flyers draft room was to go with a defenseman like Miro Heiskanen or Cale Makar. Then-GM Ron Hextall went against the grain and took the big center who came into the previous season as the consensus No. 1 prospect available in the draft."

And ASF had mentioned it on Snow the Goalie prior to that.

Meltzer wrote about it in July 2021: HockeyBuzz.com - Forums - Bill Meltzer: Free Agency Day 1: Flyers recap and analysis

"In hindsight, was Hexy wrong to overrule his scouts? Probably. While there was no specific consensus between Patrick, Heiskanen and Makar, apparently enough scouts to form a consensus would have advocated for either of the latter two (apparently with Heiskanen being the preference because Makar was a Junior-A player, which entailed more of a leap of faith). Ron felt differently, strongly wanting the big righthanded center who'd been the virtual unanimous No. 1 candidate leaguewide heading into 2016-17."

The Clarke interview was in January 2022.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I don’t believe that was the first time that Heiskanen was mentioned.

 

[Rebels57]

The Flyers were never drafting anyone but Patrick. Why the f*** is this still a conversation?