2022/23 Roster Thread XVIII: The bats have left the bell tower

[Beef Invictus]

That's what I mean about that slippery, nebulous, and often absurd usage of "elite."

 

[deadhead]

That's what I mean about that slippery, nebulous, and often absurd usage of "elite."

There aren't a lot of players with Tippett's combination of size, speed and shot.
Now that will help him win a skills competition if he ever gets to an All star game.
You still have to turn that into production in real games.

You also have to worry that he doesn't regress like Kapanen did:
22-24: 187g 38-58 96
25-26: 121g 15-26 41

 

[Beef Invictus]

There aren't a lot of players with Tippett's combination of size, speed and shot.
Now that will help him win a skills competition if he ever gets to an All star game.
You still have to turn that into production in real games.

You also have to worry that he doesn't regress like Kapanen did:
22-24: 187g 38-58 96
25-26: 121g 15-26 41

On the Flyers? That's right, there aren't. In the NHL? Plenty.

 

[Magua]

Tippett has always had elite raw tools, hence his draft position. But his struggles to put it together until age 23-24, and the realistic concern that he might be touching his ceiling given certain weaknesses, speaks to more than size, speed and shot.

He's exceeded my expectations by a lot. He actually looks like a real middle 6 NHLer, with spurts of dynamism. The issue is he's 24 y.o. now, and this monstrous surge still amounts to a 24 goal/47 point pace. I'm not knocking that, but he's being given premium usage he wouldn't necessarily get elsewhere. I'm just not naive enough to believe this is a foundational level young player, like the team is trying to sell.

After next year, he needs an RFA contract that likely takes him into UFA. Tippett making $5.5 mil., for a team still going nowhere, is suddenly less intriguing, hence the idea of selling high. This team is fundamentally lost in self-evaluating, so I know they don't see it as such.

 

[deadhead]

Unless you're embarking on a ten year rebuild, doesn't make sense to start shedding 23 year old players, especially ones who should age well.

Trading Tippett for a later 1st rd pick is probably an exercise in futility, gee, we can get an 18 year old forward who MAY (see JOB) become a middle six forward in four to five years. Better to sign him to a team friendly RFA deal, and if he doesn't develop further, trade him 3-4 years down the road as his contract expires and he's headed to FA at the TDL.

1st rd picks outside the top 15, and especially the top 5, aren't as valuable as cost controlled players who've actually shown they can play in the NHL.

Now Provorov with 2 years left, and a sense that he's not worth a 8x8 extension, is the kind of player you move for futures. Same with Laughton, young enough to have value, but too old to project as a key player five years from now.

TK is tougher, I suspect even a 32 year old TK may be worth more than the middle 1st rd pick and 2nd rd pick you might get for him - it would have to be "an offer I can't refuse" for me to want to move him - not just his production, but his 'tude.

 

[DancingPanther]

Tippett has always had elite raw tools, hence his draft position. But his struggles to put it together until age 23-24, and the realistic concern that he might be touching his ceiling given certain weaknesses, speaks to more than size, speed and shot.

He's exceeded my expectations by a lot. He actually looks like a real middle 6 NHLer, with spurts of dynamism. The issue is he's 24 y.o. now, and this monstrous surge still amounts to a 24 goal/47 point pace. I'm not knocking that, but he's being given premium usage he wouldn't necessarily get elsewhere. I'm just not naive enough to believe this is a foundational level young player, like the team is trying to sell.

After next year, he needs an RFA contract that likely takes him into UFA. Tippett making $5.5 mil., for a team still going nowhere, is suddenly less intriguing, hence the idea of selling high. This team is fundamentally lost in self-evaluating, so I know they don't see it as such.

This is the guy we got back for the best player in franchise history who still is a point per game talent.

 

[VladDrag]

Unless you're embarking on a ten year rebuild, doesn't make sense to start shedding 23 year old players, especially ones who should age well.

Trading Tippett for a later 1st rd pick is probably an exercise in futility, gee, we can get an 18 year old forward who MAY (see JOB) become a middle six forward in four to five years. Better to sign him to a team friendly RFA deal, and if he doesn't develop further, trade him 3-4 years down the road as his contract expires and he's headed to FA at the TDL.

1st rd picks outside the top 15, and especially the top 5, aren't as valuable as cost controlled players who've actually shown they can play in the NHL.

Now Provorov with 2 years left, and a sense that he's not worth a 8x8 extension, is the kind of player you move for futures. Same with Laughton, young enough to have value, but too old to project as a key player five years from now.

TK is tougher, I suspect even a 32 year old TK may be worth more than the middle 1st rd pick and 2nd rd pick you might get for him - it would have to be "an offer I can't refuse" for me to want to move him - not just his production, but his 'tude.

Do you think Tippett ages well? I personally do not. I think once he loses his athleticism, she will begin to lose effectiveness. He’s too limited in the mental side of the game.

Also, they’re not competing for another few years. Sure, maybe if couturier comes back and plays at a high-level, and you get incremental improvements from the younger players on the roster, they’ll be a 6 to 8 seed in the playoffs next year. But that isn’t competing in my eyes.


And, you can do a lot more with picks, they give you flexibility. You can package them together with other assets to get more, for example. And I don’t think you’re gonna get a team friendly deal at the end of this contract. If Tippett put up two + goal seasons, and he’s gonna be making $5 million a year, long term. At that point, he’s no longer on a friendly deal, nor do you have any control.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Unless you're embarking on a ten year rebuild, doesn't make sense to start shedding 23 year old players, especially ones who should age well.

Trading Tippett for a later 1st rd pick is probably an exercise in futility, gee, we can get an 18 year old forward who MAY (see JOB) become a middle six forward in four to five years. Better to sign him to a team friendly RFA deal, and if he doesn't develop further, trade him 3-4 years down the road as his contract expires and he's headed to FA at the TDL.

1st rd picks outside the top 15, and especially the top 5, aren't as valuable as cost controlled players who've actually shown they can play in the NHL.

Now Provorov with 2 years left, and a sense that he's not worth a 8x8 extension, is the kind of player you move for futures. Same with Laughton, young enough to have value, but too old to project as a key player five years from now.

TK is tougher, I suspect even a 32 year old TK may be worth more than the middle 1st rd pick and 2nd rd pick you might get for him - it would have to be "an offer I can't refuse" for me to want to move him - not just his production, but his 'tude.

The rebuild will take ten years and it hasn't even started yet.

 

[BiggE]

Tippett has always had elite raw tools, hence his draft position. But his struggles to put it together until age 23-24, and the realistic concern that he might be touching his ceiling given certain weaknesses, speaks to more than size, speed and shot.

He's exceeded my expectations by a lot. He actually looks like a real middle 6 NHLer, with spurts of dynamism. The issue is he's 24 y.o. now, and this monstrous surge still amounts to a 24 goal/47 point pace. I'm not knocking that, but he's being given premium usage he wouldn't necessarily get elsewhere. I'm just not naive enough to believe this is a foundational level young player, like the team is trying to sell.

After next year, he needs an RFA contract that likely takes him into UFA. Tippett making $5.5 mil., for a team still going nowhere, is suddenly less intriguing, hence the idea of selling high. This team is fundamentally lost in self-evaluating, so I know they don't see it as such.

The current GM can’t even grasp the concept of “selling high”.

 

[BillDineen]

I am worried Ottawa acquiring players for no logical reason ahead of the deadline might convince Chuckles to do the same.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Saunders and Coatsey are doing a great job of ball washing the franchise. Such hits as

“Noah Cates is the most exciting young player.”

“Claude Giroux put them in a bind.”

At least Saunders put the hosts in their place when they brought up a goalie controversy and shootouts.

 

[ponder719]

I am worried Ottawa acquiring players for no logical reason ahead of the deadline might convince Chuckles to do the same.

Maybe Claude put in a good word for Provorov, and they're making space for him?

(I do not actually believe that, ftr.)

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I am worried Ottawa acquiring players for no logical reason ahead of the deadline might convince Chuckles to do the same.

They’re weaponizing cap space. Something this organization should have been doing for the last couple of years but we have a shit team that’s capped out.

Much praise. Much success.

 

[pooch]

Maybe Claude put in a good word for Provorov, and they're making space for him?

(I do not actually believe that, ftr.)

If that were the case, Chuck missed the boat getting that 2nd and 4th to take Zaitsev back (plus whatever they would get for Provorov). Sounds about right, actually.

 

[ponder719]

If that were the case, Chuck missed the boat getting that 2nd and 4th to take Zaitsev back (plus whatever they would get for Provorov). Sounds about right, actually.

Chuck could miss the boat at the Dad Vail Regatta.

 

[bennysflyers16]

I'd trade every player on the roster for draft picks and start over, only ask is that we have a qualified front office rebuilding. An expansion team that was openly trying to lose is 5 years ahead of us, let that marinate for a bit.

Imagine they made zero mistakes compared to Chucks 1 mistake though.

 

[TB87]

Tippett has always had elite raw tools, hence his draft position. But his struggles to put it together until age 23-24, and the realistic concern that he might be touching his ceiling given certain weaknesses, speaks to more than size, speed and shot.

He's exceeded my expectations by a lot. He actually looks like a real middle 6 NHLer, with spurts of dynamism. The issue is he's 24 y.o. now, and this monstrous surge still amounts to a 24 goal/47 point pace. I'm not knocking that, but he's being given premium usage he wouldn't necessarily get elsewhere. I'm just not naive enough to believe this is a foundational level young player, like the team is trying to sell.

After next year, he needs an RFA contract that likely takes him into UFA. Tippett making $5.5 mil., for a team still going nowhere, is suddenly less intriguing, hence the idea of selling high. This team is fundamentally lost in self-evaluating, so I know they don't see it as such.

They’d legit be able to get a 1st, in this draft, for him. Shooting% heaters are still a mystery wrapped in an enigma to NHL GM’s.

 

[BiggE]

All of the following should be on the trading block:
Provorov
JVR
Hayes
Tippett
Laughton
Hart
Konecny
TdA
Seeler

What Cuck will actually do:
Trade Braun for a 7th and extend JVR for 3 more years

Cuck is a treasure and, like most treasures, he needs to buried.

 

[Beef Invictus]

All of the following should be on the trading block:
Provorov
JVR
Hayes
Tippett
Laughton
Hart
Konecny
TdA
Seeler

What Cuck will actually do:
Trade Braun for a 7th and extend JVR for 3 more years

Cuck is a treasure and, like most treasures, he needs to buried.

As they always say, one man's treasure is most other men's trash.

 

[Danko]

 

[BernieParent]

He’s clearly spelling out the unlikelihood of each possible step, culminating in inevitable failure. I just feel like he’s saying this is their roadmap and not this is me retroactively making them their roadmap. Saying they have a bad plan gives them a metric ton more competency and consistency than they deserve.

The "plan" amounts to:
1) Draft elite players
2) Trade for elite players
3) Hide behind Tortorella
4) Win Stanley Cup

 

[Curufinwe]

All of the following should be on the trading block:
Provorov
JVR
Hayes
Tippett
Laughton
Hart
Konecny
TdA
Seeler

What Cuck will actually do:
Trade Braun for a 7th and extend JVR for 3 more years

Cuck is a treasure and, like most treasures, he needs to buried.

No chance JVR gets a new contract here.

 

[deadhead]

If they tore it down, I suspect the same people advocating that strategy would be in here two years from now bitching that they haven't turned it around yet and they hired the wrong GM (even if it was the one they wanted).

It's not going to happen, and shouldn't, because even if they sucked for three years, the odds they land a McDavid, McKinnon type franchise player are slim to none. You have to have #1 or #2 in the right season (i.e don't have #2 with JVR and Patrick on the board!), and with the lottery, even a total suck can screw you.

If you're going to rebuild, you do it with a long-term strategy to add young talent and move out veteran contracts - if the young players do well enough to keep you from drafting high, you're succeeding, if they struggle, then you get more young talent. So it solves itself.

The problem isn't that they won't tear it down, it's that they totally lack a coherent strategy. It's not hard, but the problem is the FO, until they green light a long-term strategy no GM can succeed here. If the boss pushes for an aggressive reload, the GM has few viable options other than "patch and pray."

It's easy, trade JVR at the TDL, Hayes and Provorov this summer, maybe Laughton.
Add some draft picks and a couple close to NHL ready prospects, and clear $20M off the cap.
Use that money to be the third party broker in some deals, take on a bad veteran contract and garner some more assets.

Do this for 2-3 years while you build a deep roster and accumulate draft picks.
Then when the team is ready to compete, focus on a top RFA with a year or two left who fits your clubhouse and scheme and "let's make a deal." Two second tier prospects and a 1st rd pick can land you a top 6/top 4 player in his prime.

DO NOT chase free agents over 25, do not trade for veterans, etc.
If you need to patch holes, sign veterans to one year deals you can flip at the TDL so you don't have to rush prospects and can let them marinate in LHV.

 

[Curufinwe]

If they tore it down they might miss the playoffs four out of the next five seasons. Live they have done not rebuilding under Fletcher.

 

[Beef Invictus]

If they tore it down, I suspect the same people advocating that strategy would be in here two years from now bitching that they haven't turned it around yet and they hired the wrong GM (even if it was the one they wanted).

It's not going to happen, and shouldn't, because even if they sucked for three years, the odds they land a McDavid, McKinnon type franchise player are slim to none. You have to have #1 or #2 in the right season (i.e don't have #2 with JVR and Patrick on the board!), and with the lottery, even a total suck can screw you.

If you're going to rebuild, you do it with a long-term strategy to add young talent and move out veteran contracts - if the young players do well enough to keep you from drafting high, you're succeeding, if they struggle, then you get more young talent. So it solves itself.

The problem isn't that they won't tear it down, it's that they totally lack a coherent strategy. It's not hard, but the problem is the FO, until they green light a long-term strategy no GM can succeed here. If the boss pushes for an aggressive reload, the GM has few viable options other than "patch and pray."

It's easy, trade JVR at the TDL, Hayes and Provorov this summer, maybe Laughton.
Add some draft picks and a couple close to NHL ready prospects, and clear $20M off the cap.
Use that money to be the third party broker in some deals, take on a bad veteran contract and garner some more assets.

Do this for 2-3 years while you build a deep roster and accumulate draft picks.
Then when the team is ready to compete, focus on a top RFA with a year or two left who fits your clubhouse and scheme and "let's make a deal." Two second tier prospects and a 1st rd pick can land you a top 6/top 4 player in his prime.

DO NOT chase free agents over 25, do not trade for veterans, etc.
If you need to patch holes, sign veterans to one year deals you can flip at the TDL so you don't have to rush prospects and can let them marinate in LHV.

Depends on if they've fired everyone Clarke has ever met and hired competent people first.

Everything hinges on competency. This has been made clear.

If they let this general group tear down and rebuild, there will be criticism because they will fail while doing very obviously stupid shit. Do you believe incompetence shouldn't be called out? Is that why you defend everything?