2022/23 Roster Thread XVII: The Days are Getting Longer
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Chicken N Raffls
Here for the chaos and lolz
I suspect, if Seeler doesn't get traded, the story will shift to what great value he is as a cheap 6. Also, sticks up for his teammates, max effort, etc
deadhead
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I just look at 5x5 scoring, b/c PP scoring is more variable, depends on PP time (total and which unit) and how well the PP is playing as a unit. So his 5x5 has been pretty constant, except for his first two Flyer seasons, the first was ??? the second was a serious injury. At 5x5 he scores like an above average second line forward.Deady, no. Please don't do this. This is the highest Points/60 of his career by a solid margin. And a mile over his previous Flyers seasons.
What you're seeing is a combination of an above average 5v5 scoring season plus an above average PP scoring season occurring simultaneously. That Voltrons into this at All Situations:
The PP this season is anomalous, however, watching him he seems to have settled into a spot on the right boards where he looks comfortable, but if I can't play him there i"m going to discount that production if I trade for him.
Beef Invictus
Revolutionary Positivity
We've already gotten there after months of "he's an AHL signing that will never stand in the way of the revolving door Tortorella is going to order"
BackToTheBrierePatch
Eff Cancer
Seeler is very easily replaceable. Problem is the Flyers think he is a core piece and cannot be traded
Chicken N Raffls
Here for the chaos and lolz
Never commit, never surrender! Just pretend you didn't mean it and continue talking in circles.
BernieParent
In misery of redwings of suckage for a long time
Shift??? We've been in that gear for awhile now.
deadhead
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Jake at 32 scored 1.66 pp/60 at 5x5. Now that was partially due to a really bad Sh%, 2.06% and low secondary assist rate 0.17.
At 31 he scored 2.38 pp/60, but that was due to a high Sh% 10.53% and high secondary assist rate 0.77.
Split the difference, the six years before he shot a little below 7%, about 0.50 secondary assists per 60.
So if you used this crude normalization:
30: 2.20
31: 1.75
32: 2.26
Average: 2.07. His scoring has held up.
On the other hand xGF%
30: 52.07% xGFrel +1.80
31: 48.36% xGFrel - 3.67
32: 43.48% xGFrel - 2.37
While playing on bad teams brought down his xGF%, he also was a below average player on those bad teams.
His peak years were from 22-26, then a smaller decline from 27-30, then a second decline at 31.
On the PP, he had an amazing season in 2017-18, clearly an outlier for his career.
30: 4.99 pp/60, xGF/60: 6.88
31: 3.46 pp/60, xGF/60: 6.71
32: 5.91 pp/60, xGF/60: 6.80
his xGF is remarkably consistent.
Hayes
29: 2.05
30: 2.10
His Sh% the last two seasons have been the lowest of his career, his 0.75 secondary assists boosted his scoring last season, but his 0.18 has depressed it this season.
29: xGF 43.82%, xGFrel -3.05 [this is where his injury showed up last year, couldn't get back on defense]
30: xGF 48.60% xGFrel +2.50
Note that his metrics are much better since he moved to LW.
PP
29: 1.84 pp/60, xGF 6.24
30: 5.76 pp/60, XGF 6.43
He did put up 5.62 and 5.21 his last two seasons in NY, so this season isn't totally out of line.
His xGF those two years in NY were 7.61 and 7.23
It's not that high of a threshold for Hayes to meet the next two years.
As a LW, it's clear he's a better player than at center, how good? The sample really isn't large enough.
freakydallas13
Registered User
Lmao at thinking this team will get value for Seeler at the deadline. I'd wager they're more likely to be in buy mode and add another Seeler than they are to send one out.
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Beef Invictus
Revolutionary Positivity
Chicken N Raffls
Here for the chaos and lolz
I love ya Bern, but you're trying to apply square logic to circular reasoning here. It just doesn't work that way. The cycle typically goes as such.
Depth signing, won't play, cheap, who cares?-------Injuries!-------once so and so comes back--------roster staple--------in February!-------this guy brings it! What could we get at the TDL?------Hey, he's cheap depth, at least.
"You spin my head right round, right round, like a record baby, right round, round round."
deadhead
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Don't know what the big deal is, Seeler has obviously played better than expected, signed as a 7th D-man an injury depth, he's on a two way deal next year, if anyone saw him as starting material he'd have gotten a better offer.
But he's been solid, he's been much better paired with Risto than he was with Yandle last season, wonder why?
If Zamula had stepped up, Seeler would have ended up on the bench or LHV, but he didn't, and he hasn't yet in the AHL.
Meanwhile Seeler took advantage of PT and ran with it. xGF 51.85%, xGFrel +7.08, 0.75 pp/60.
Metrics are inflated by his sheltered role, but still as good as you can hope from a #6 D-man.
Hopefully they can get a 3rd or 4th for Seeler from a PO team with injuries that wants a reliable, if limited, veteran D-man.
But he's been solid, he's been much better paired with Risto than he was with Yandle last season, wonder why?
If Zamula had stepped up, Seeler would have ended up on the bench or LHV, but he didn't, and he hasn't yet in the AHL.
Meanwhile Seeler took advantage of PT and ran with it. xGF 51.85%, xGFrel +7.08, 0.75 pp/60.
Metrics are inflated by his sheltered role, but still as good as you can hope from a #6 D-man.
Hopefully they can get a 3rd or 4th for Seeler from a PO team with injuries that wants a reliable, if limited, veteran D-man.
Beef Invictus
Revolutionary Positivity
He wasn't signed to be the 7th dman or an AHLer. He was signed to play nightly. I called this when he was signed. This was easily predictable.
Zamula flat-out wasn't given a chance to step up, like so many other players before. The Flyers are eager and desperate to quit on everything that isn't a shitty grinder.
deadhead
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Nonsense. If they really thought he was a starter, they'd have paid him (or someone else would have) better - you don't give players you think are starters two way deals. He had no leverage b/c his career said AHL+/7th starter.
Sometimes players surprise.
Beef Invictus
Revolutionary Positivity
You say these things don't happen, and yet they did.
Did you forget how much he played last year when they had a far superior York being blocked? He has been a regular for two years now. They plan on him being a regular for the rest of this year and next.
You do not need to defend everything the team says and does.
Strawberry Fields
12x Calder Cup Champs
2000 Atlanta Thrashers All Star, Petr Buzek says hello.
Petr Buzek Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com
Statistics of Petr Buzek, a hockey player from Jihlava, Czech Rep. born Apr 25 1977 who was active from 1993 to 2006.
www.hockeydb.com
kudymen
Hakstok was a fascist clique hiver lickballs.gif
Buzek had quite a good story (tm) there though, if I remember correctly. Came back to play after a serious injury with lots of steel put in his legs, hands, arms
Hollywood Cannon
I'm Away From My Desk
Hayes is an All-Star because of his story.
Hollywood Cannon
I'm Away From My Desk
We were literally endlessly told how he’s just a seventh d-man or will be in the AHL when the signing came like 50 days before the opening of FA and that we’re overreacting.
Now? “I didn’t say that.”
kudymen
Hakstok was a fascist clique hiver lickballs.gif
Striiker
Former Flyers Fan
Sure is a shame that posts from when Seeler was signed last summer don't magically disappear when people lie.
Confirmed with Link: - Flyers Re-Sign Nick Seeler To Two Year Deal ($775K) (One-Way/Two-Way)
I don’t think Seeler would have found a contract for next season if not for this. I don’t understand the urgency to re sign him. There has to be a huge number of 7/8 D men that would be available for league minimum come free agency. Take a chance on someone else who might even have an upside...
Confirmed with Link: - Flyers Re-Sign Nick Seeler To Two Year Deal ($775K) (One-Way/Two-Way)
You're better off just getting an upgrade at the position Gjo back to last July and look at all the FA contracts, to land anything better than a 4th line scrub, you have to be either really lucky (pick the one in five who rebounds or has a career year on a one year deal, then watch him walk) or...
Confirmed with Link: - Flyers Re-Sign Nick Seeler To Two Year Deal ($775K) (One-Way/Two-Way)
You're better off just getting an upgrade at the position Gjo back to last July and look at all the FA contracts, to land anything better than a 4th line scrub, you have to be either really lucky (pick the one in five who rebounds or has a career year on a one year deal, then watch him walk) or...
Confirmed with Link: - Flyers Re-Sign Nick Seeler To Two Year Deal ($775K) (One-Way/Two-Way)
League. Minimum. Depth. If only that's what he were in their eyes. Is it good management to not try and improve their terrible depth?
Confirmed with Link: - Flyers Re-Sign Nick Seeler To Two Year Deal ($775K) (One-Way/Two-Way)
Well they almost certainly see him as a #5 or a #6, so maybe they should be shooting higher. #7s don't play over half a season and have that cut short only due to injury and plague. They do when the #1 misses the whole season, in that case #7 becomes #6. Once they started auditioning the young...
Confirmed with Link: - Flyers Re-Sign Nick Seeler To Two Year Deal ($775K) (One-Way/Two-Way)
Well they almost certainly see him as a #5 or a #6, so maybe they should be shooting higher. #7s don't play over half a season and have that cut short only due to injury and plague. They do when the #1 misses the whole season, in that case #7 becomes #6. Once they started auditioning the young...
renberg
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If Seeler was a pending UFA he might trade him for a 7th and then re-sign him for another 2 years in the 1st ten minutes of free agency. Gotta lock up your core pieces on Day 1.
Yes - which makes sense - a bunch of fat mongrels
Yes - which makes sense - a bunch of fat mongrels
Flyerfan4life
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