2022/23 Roster Thread XVII: The Days are Getting Longer

[Beef Invictus]

.


You know other than being an obnoxious contrarian, you don't have a clue?

I have never before seen a case of projection this severe.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Well, I'm smarter than Beef, so there's that.

I don't "cherry pick," I give the rationale behind every inflection point I try to identify.
Data mining (picking the model that provides the desired result) is a no-no, but there is a legitimate form of data mining, which requires accounting for the order in which you test models, but that's far more sophisticated than the modeling used by hockey sites.

The problem is that how a team performs does change over a season as personnel change and players adjust to schemes, so you can't assume an average over the whole season is a valid predictor of future performance. So you want to identify any sustained changes in performance and the reasons for those changes. This is SOP in time series modeling, testing for inflection points (where the underlying model changes), but would probably be difficult to implement in the hockey stat context.

To me, there are three inflection points this season, the first 10 games, where everyone agrees the team looked like shit but was carried by Hart, the next 16 games, when they got comfortable with Torts' scheme but the lines and D-pairs were in constant flux, and starting in Dec 7, when JVR returned, York came up and the lines and D-pairs became set (with Allison replacing MacEwen a week or so later).

To me, if I want to judge the players and the team going forward, Dec 7 is the starting point, b/c the players are in a "comfort zone" and can't blame adjustments or getting used to their linemates for any struggles. And we see a number of players settle down at that point, Frost, Laughton, especially.

Practically all those "metrics" are flawed since they rely on naive linear correlations.
There are some serious issues with biased measures, left out variable error, etc. And chemistry matters but is hard to measure.
The "more sophisticated" metrics have similar weaknesses, they go into deeper detail but then have smaller samples.

But the real problem is that the available raw data is fundamentally flawed, so at best all you can get from them is some suggestive numbers that need to be validated by eyeballs. Proprietary team statistics should be better, b/c they have the money to do more detailed analysis (who was actually responsible for good or bad) and thus work with better raw data. But since it's proprietary, who knows?

You don't cherrypick? You don't use stats dishonestly and inconsistently? You never make straight comparisons across teams while removing the massive amounts of context needed to make that work, like you did just hours ago for Risto and Ghost? You never deliberately remove important information like usage (which you are aware is important and apply situationally when it benefits your narrative) in your "evaluations?" We are all gonna LOL at that.

Why wasn't 500 NHL games enough to pass judgement on Risto, while a few practices are enough to pass judgement on York and Frost? Why is 500 games not enough in one case, but a single small playoff series worthy in another?

How come you preach about how metrics are flawed and then, instead of using as many as possible with associated context to complete the most comprehensive picture, you instead routinely find the one metric you think will work best for your BS defenses and the treat it like it encompasses the whole story?


The only rationale behind any stats you employ is "how can I use this to absolve management of all blame and pump them up?"

 

[Nizzle]

 

[Curufinwe]

I don't understand why the Flyers are persisting with playing two dmen in OT when their OT record is terrible: 1 and 7.

And they have at least four solid forward combos they could be sending out in OT:

Cates-Konecny
Frost-Tippett
Hayes-Farabee
Laughton-Allison

 

[BringBackHakstol]

Using 2 D in OT is an all timer baffling move. just another embarrassing feather in the cap for the flyers

 

[Rebels57]

I don't understand why the Flyers are persisting with playing two dmen in OT when their OT record is terrible: 1 and 7.

And they have at least four solid forward combos they could be sending out in OT:

Cates-Konecny
Frost-Tippett
Hayes-Farabee
Laughton-Allison

I understand. Their HC is a Dinosaur and their Offense Coach is a punch-drunk loser.

 

[Curufinwe]

Laughton and TK are scoring goals for fun on the PK, so maybe try them together in overtime? The Flyers have the worst record of any team in OT except Florida, so it couldn't hurt.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

 

[renberg]

They don’t want to fire Fletcher just like they don’t want to commit to a full rebuild. They’re looking for any reasons to believe that these steps aren’t necessary. Anything good that happens was all by design & anything bad that happens is all bad luck.

Clarke & Co. don’t even think Fletcher’s job status should be questioned right now. He’d be your GM next year if business ramifications wasn’t the only thing getting Comcast hesitant on that front.

Gauging the attitude of too many fans, apathy has set in. They have become irrelevant. Ask friends if they want to go to a game and the answer is negative. They're not worth the time and money. Nothing to see of value there.
The entire organization its operating with their heads up their @$$3$. Getting back a healthy Couturier and Atkinson is not going to change around this club. It needs to make major moves on and off of the ice and does nothing.

 

[Larry44]

Dude literally won an award for being born here.

Nativist Son, more like it. KKKongratulations!

 

[captainpaxil]

Laughton and TK are scoring goals for fun on the PK, so maybe try them together in overtime? The Flyers have the worst record of any team in OT except Florida, so it couldn't hurt.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Proof that speed is crucial

 

[flyersnorth]

ASF's impassioned nepotism rant shows just how interconnected and *small* the Flyers are. I knew about many of the things in his timeline, but it's the first time I see it all laid out in chronological order and how each move links to another parallel move.

I wonder what the reaction inside the Flyers' organization has been...

 

[Rebels57]

ASF's impassioned nepotism rant shows just how interconnected and *small* the Flyers are. I knew about many of the things in his timeline, but it's the first time I see it all laid out in chronological order and how each moves links to another parallel move.

I wonder what the reaction inside the Flyers' organization has been...

Inhaling their own farts, like usual?

 

[deadhead]

ASF's impassioned nepotism rant shows just how interconnected and *small* the Flyers are. I knew about many of the things in his timeline, but it's the first time I see it all laid out in chronological order and how each moves links to another parallel move.

I wonder what the reaction inside the Flyers' organization has been...

It's pretty bad, but you can probably show this to some extent for all teams.

There's a pretty small population of eligible canddidates for HC, GM, assistant GM, etc.
32 HCs, maybe 64-96 assistant coaches, 32 AHL HCs, same with GMs and assistant GMs, head of NHL personnel, development and so on.
So at any time only a few hundred around the league, most of whom have worked for a number of others as they climb the ladder.

You can see it in the NFL where it feels like half the league has worked for Andy Reid at some point in their careers!

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

ASF's impassioned nepotism rant shows just how interconnected and *small* the Flyers are. I knew about many of the things in his timeline, but it's the first time I see it all laid out in chronological order and how each moves links to another parallel move.

I wonder what the reaction inside the Flyers' organization has been...

Is there anyway someone could expound on this or timestamp the juiciness?

Don’t currently have the time to listen to the whole pod.

 

[DancingPanther]

ASF is a year too late. Has anyone linked the Cronyism chart on the crossing broad street hockey pod

 

[flyerslducks]

We need another 10game losing streak please.

 

[flyerslducks]

Using 2 D in OT is an all timer baffling move. just another embarrassing feather in the cap for the flyers

I hope they keep doing it. Lose lose lose

 

[flyersnorth]

It's pretty bad, but you can probably show this to some extent for all teams.

There's a pretty small population of eligible canddidates for HC, GM, assistant GM, etc.
32 HCs, maybe 64-96 assistant coaches, 32 AHL HCs, same with GMs and assistant GMs, head of NHL personnel, development and so on.
So at any time only a few hundred around the league, most of whom have worked for a number of others as they climb the ladder.

You can see it in the NFL where it feels like half the league has worked for Andy Reid at some point in their careers!

What I understood from his article is, over the entirety of their history, the Flyers have demonstrated that they are perfectly willing to forego experience or qualifications when the candidate is also a son, or a father, or a friend.

Of course this happens in all spheres of life. It's not exceptional to the Flyers or hockey.

ASF is saying it just hasn't worked, and enough is enough with the narrow pool of stewards. The Flyers are staring at 48 years without a Stanley Cup, including the most recent decade of futility.

You may be asking yourself, why did I choose today to provide this glimpse into the I-scratch-your-back, you-scratch-mine bit of Flyers history?​

​

Because recent events have proven that the Flyers will never fix themselves until there is a complete overhaul of hockey operations and that the new faces in the department are not “in the network,” so to speak.​

Is there anyway someone could expound on this or timestamp the juiciness?

Don’t currently have the time to listen to the whole pod.

It's actually an article -

Flyers Stuck in Purgatory Because of Decades Relying on King-Making "Network"

Professional sports, in general, have operated through the “good ol’ boy network” for the duration of their existence. Hockey, being the smallest of the four major North American sports, has likely had the most frequent occurrence of cronyism and patronage, with players, coaches, executives –...

www.crossingbroad.com

 

[Rebels57]

What I understood from his article is, over the entirety of their history, the Flyers have demonstrated that they are perfectly willing to forego experience or qualifications when the candidate is also a son, or a father, or a friend.

Of course this happens in all spheres of life. It's not exceptional to the Flyers or hockey.

ASF is saying it just hasn't worked, and enough is enough with the narrow pool of stewards. The Flyers are staring at 48 years without a Stanley Cup, including the most recent decade of futility.

You may be asking yourself, why did I choose today to provide this glimpse into the I-scratch-your-back, you-scratch-mine bit of Flyers history?​

​

Because recent events have proven that the Flyers will never fix themselves until there is a complete overhaul of hockey operations and that the new faces in the department are not “in the network,” so to speak.​

It's actually an article -

Flyers Stuck in Purgatory Because of Decades Relying on King-Making "Network"

Professional sports, in general, have operated through the “good ol’ boy network” for the duration of their existence. Hockey, being the smallest of the four major North American sports, has likely had the most frequent occurrence of cronyism and patronage, with players, coaches, executives –...

www.crossingbroad.com

Can't imagine why they haven't won a Cup in nearly 50 f***ing years.

 

[Striiker]

Frost pacing for 40 points after spending half the year buried with AHLers. Very impressive.

He's making a lot of "fans" look real stupid right now. Especially the ones who act like usage doesn't impact scoring and a lack of scoring must mean poor play. Also making Charlie look real dumb for acting like Cates is the better player.

 

[ajgoal]

Frost pacing for 40 points after spending half the year buried with AHLers. Very impressive.

He's making a lot of "fans" look real stupid right now. Especially the ones who act like usage doesn't impact scoring and a lack of scoring must mean poor play. Also making Charlie look real dumb for acting like Cates is the better player.

Talk to me when 8 of those points didn't come against an Arizona team that is using AHL Dman Gostisbehere in their top four.

 

[deadhead]

Frost is playing better b/c he's responded to Torts' tough love.

He's working harder on the back check and along the boards, and not surprising, when you are more active on defense and help keep possession, you're not only more engaged but you create more scoring chances.

It's not like JVR and Tippett are all star forwards, but playing with the same forwards over an extended period has helped chemistry for all three lines.
Since Dec 7:

Frost 13:04 CF 51.45%, xGF 52.77% 2.59 pp/60 (Sh 20.59%)
JVR 12:29 CF 53.63%, xGF 54.35% 2.51 pp/60
Tippett 12:26 CF 53.53%, xGF 56.50% 2.31 pp/60

Farabee 13:21 CF 45.94%, xGF 43.95% 1.76 pp/60
Cates 13:10 CF 47.42%, xGF 48.65% 1.19 pp/60
TK 14:17 CF 47.65%, xGF 45.52% 2.37 pp/60

Hayes 12:57 CF 52.02%, xGF 56.44% 1.89 pp/60 (Sh 1.82%)
Laughton 12:56 CF 48.42%, xGF 50.11% 1.21 pp/60
Allison 12:08 CF 49.01%, xGF 55.78% 1.74 pp/60 (Sh 16.67%)

 

[Curufinwe]

Why is Cates still scoring like a 4th liner despite being glued to TK? Not enough "tough love"?

 

[deadhead]

Why is Cates still scoring like a 4th liner despite being glued to TK? Not enough "tough love"?

Because he's a defensively oriented LW learning to play center in the NHL?

Minn-Duluth is the most conservative team in college hockey, which is good and bad, Cates came out as a well versed defensive forward, but his offensive skills are relatively undeveloped.

If Couts returns in April, it's likely that Cates or Laughton will move back to LW.
Though I can see Cates centering a 3rd line that's more of an energy line, with say Laughton at LW and Allison at RW, with Couts centering Farabee and TK.

Here's Pageau's scoring rate since he became a starter: 1.64, 1.44, 1.61, 1.30, 1.29, 1.37, 1.22, 1.56, 1.30
Yet he was traded for a 1st, 2nd and signed to a 6x5 contract.
Defensive centers seem to have value.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Can't imagine why they haven't won a Cup in nearly 50 f***ing years.

yea best to forget Bedard and just keep doing what we've been doing. cuz its working so well these last 50 years...

hahaaaa