2022/23 Roster Thread XVII: The Days are Getting Longer

[Rebels57]

Does Charlie not see how f***ing stupid that sounds? He has been here for 4+ years and has been abject failure of epic proportions the last 3 years. Why should anything that happens since December through the rest of the season matter and why does that tweet not end with a criticism of the organization for that line of reasoning? Charlie sucks ass.

 

[Magua]

Chuck Fletcher will run the very important deadline, and Brent Flahr will run the very important draft. Then, MAYBE Fletcher will still be here for the very important summer, into next season, to further leave his collaborative prints on this permanent bottom 10 team. Darkest timeline.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Does Charlie not see how f***ing stupid that sounds? He has been here for 4+ years and has been abject failure of epic proportions the last 3 years. Why should anything that happens since December through the rest of the season matter and why does that tweet not end with a criticism of the organization for that line of reasoning? Charlie sucks ass.

Yes, I think he does but the stupidity in that situation falls on the Flyers, not Charlie.

 

[deadhead]

GA/60 isn't plus minus. It measures how many goals the team concedes per hour when that player is on the ice in 5 on 5 situations. 5on5 numbers take out shorthanded & empty net goals conceded, and Ristolainen isn't on the ice for attacking situations like powerplays and 6 on 5 because his offense has gone to total shit. The fact that the team concedes more goals against 3rd and 4th liners during Risto's minutes than they do against the top 6 forwards Provorov and Sanheim primarily play against, shows what a disaster his $25,500,000 contract is.

Since you randomly brought up Ghost yet again, Ghost has the 2nd best 5on5 GF% on his team's defense and Risto has the worst out of the 8 defensemen used by the Flyers despite being heavily sheltered compared to Provorov and Sanheim, and never having to play with DeAngelo whose defense is even worse than advertised.

GF% is heavily dependent on goalie play, which is why it's as misleading as +/-.
You're just cherry picking stats.

GF and GA do have meaning in large samples when they differ signficantly from xGF and xGA, identifying the small subgroup of players who either score more than expected or seem to leak goals at a higher rate - but that has to be a pretty large sample to be significant.

Remember when Hagg had a much better GA than xGA? I don't remember you suggesting he was a good defenseman?

WAYYYYYYYYYY BETTER

At 5v5...	2021-2022	2022-2023 (without the first 10 games)
Shot attempts against (per 60)	60.73	57.95
Expected goals against (per 60)	2.72	2.62
High Danger attempts against (per 60)	11.97	12.23

The problem is Torts isn't a defensive HC. Which I pointed out before the season.

His aggressive forecheck increases scoring chances for BOTH teams, what he does is stress back checking and blocking shots and limiting the damage.

People buy into myths without doing research, Jo Jo, you should know better, the rest, I suspect statistics is a foreign language for most.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

“You’re just cherry picking stats.”

 

[deadhead]

Does Charlie not see how f***ing stupid that sounds? He has been here for 4+ years and has been abject failure of epic proportions the last 3 years. Why should anything that happens since December through the rest of the season matter and why does that tweet not end with a criticism of the organization for that line of reasoning? Charlie sucks ass.

Uh, Charlie didn't say he agreed, just that's what he's heard.

You know, that's what reporters do, it's the editoral writers who constantly preach to their readers, a good reporter reports the facts as he knows them.

So if you want to whine, whine about the FO.

“You’re just cherry picking stats.”

View attachment 640642

I know what cherry picking is, and I know what attempting to identify inflection points is.
So what's your statistical training?

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Uh, Charlie didn't say he agreed, just that's what he's heard.

You know, that's what reporters do, it's the editoral writers who constantly preach to their readers, a good reporter reports the facts as he knows them.

So if you want to whine, whine about the FO.


I know what cherry picking is, and I know what attempting to identify inflection points is.
So what's your statistical training?

Deady, I mean this in the nicest way possible, you’re not the smartest guy here so cut the bullshit. You know exactly what you’re posting and why you’re posting it.

You can’t even admit that you cherry pick stats let alone admit that you’ve ever been wrong. The attempted “you’re not a dentist” remark is a bad look and it’s insulting.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Out of curiosity, I decided to check out how the team is doing defensively at 5v5 compared to last season.

After all, the casuals and shills are swearing that the team is significantly better than last year. Torts has whipped them into shape, instilled accountability, improved effort, and forced players to play the right way.

Imagine my surprise...

At 5v5...	2021-2022	2022-2023 (48 games)
Shot attempts against (per 60)	60.73	60.58
Expected goals against (per 60)	2.72	2.74
High Danger attempts against (per 60)	11.97	12.82

that cant be right..

Fletch has done a tremendous job..

oh wait.... hahaaa

 

[Beef Invictus]

You know that making claim to advanced statistical training just makes your constant misuse of stats look all the more deliberate and dishonest, yeah?

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Does Charlie not see how f***ing stupid that sounds? He has been here for 4+ years and has been abject failure of epic proportions the last 3 years. Why should anything that happens since December through the rest of the season matter and why does that tweet not end with a criticism of the organization for that line of reasoning? Charlie sucks ass.

this Org. will 100% die on the sword of old timey hockey..

i honestly dont think we will ever see real change...

 

[renberg]

Fletcher’s luck runs on the fact that two other franchises are on rolls and have the attention of the fans. If the Eagles(fall/winter) and the Phillies(spring) were not WFC material, fans would pay more attention to the fact that the Flyers are awful.
Actually Fletcher has brought the organization to a very bad place-fan apathy. The fans expect the club to stink. They don’t come like they once did. When they do show up they expect poor play. Why boo when they’re playing up to low expectations? Except for a few diehards around here, who really cares about them?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

They don’t want to fire Fletcher just like they don’t want to commit to a full rebuild. They’re looking for any reasons to believe that these steps aren’t necessary. Anything good that happens was all by design & anything bad that happens is all bad luck.

Clarke & Co. don’t even think Fletcher’s job status should be questioned right now. He’d be your GM next year if business ramifications wasn’t the only thing getting Comcast hesitant on that front.

 

[Rebels57]

Yes, I think he does but the stupidity in that situation falls on the Flyers, not Charlie.

His unwillingness to take a stance when reporting something so egregious makes him a stupid asshole too.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

His unwillingness to take a stance when reporting something so egregious makes him a stupid asshole too.

Reporters shouldn’t take stances. It’s on the reader to interpret the facts that are put out.

That isn’t to say that reporters shouldn’t be asking the hard questions which they don’t seem to do in this city.

 

[Striiker]

The problem is Charlie DOES take stances.

The wrong ones.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

 

[Starat327]

When the most authentics are rumbling you know its a problem

 

[Cody Webster]

This is the wrong thread for this, and I'm sorry, but

 

[Deadpool8812]

Hextall, who cleared a bunch of awful contracts to give us cap room and stock pile picks........he's who put us where we are?

Not Fletcher, who has used up all that cap space on shitty players, traded away our draft picks for shitty players, and treated this organization's best player in decades like shit.....?

gotta love authentic fans

 

[Amorgus]

I was in utter disbelief when I saw the ASF article about cronyism. He finally caught up to us. How many years did it take him?

 

[Striiker]

Forgive me. It was wrong of me to judge Torts with defensive stats when he's an offensive coach.

Surely his impact on this side of the game will be much more clear and show why he deserves so much praise for turning this team around!

At 5v5...	2021-2022	2022-2023
Shot attempts for (per 60)	53.03	54.07
Expected goals for (per 60)	2.36	2.38
High Danger attempts for (per 60)	10.00	10.54

Oh wait. It's also almost identical. So the team didn't improve defensively or offensively? I'm shocked.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

GF% is heavily dependent on goalie play, which is why it's as misleading as +/-.
You're just cherry picking stats.

GF and GA do have meaning in large samples when they differ signficantly from xGF and xGA, identifying the small subgroup of players who either score more than expected or seem to leak goals at a higher rate - but that has to be a pretty large sample to be significant.

Remember when Hagg had a much better GA than xGA? I don't remember you suggesting he was a good defenseman?


The problem is Torts isn't a defensive HC. Which I pointed out before the season.

His aggressive forecheck increases scoring chances for BOTH teams, what he does is stress back checking and blocking shots and limiting the damage.

People buy into myths without doing research, Jo Jo, you should know better, the rest, I suspect statistics is a foreign language for most.

They don’t want to fire Fletcher just like they don’t want to commit to a full rebuild. They’re looking for any reasons to believe that these steps aren’t necessary. Anything good that happens was all by design & anything bad that happens is all bad luck.

Clarke & Co. don’t even think Fletcher’s job status should be questioned right now. He’d be your GM next year if business ramifications wasn’t the only thing getting Comcast hesitant on that front.

Every party needs a pooper, I guess. Thanks for that Truth Bomb

 

[deadhead]

Hextall, who cleared a bunch of awful contracts to give us cap room and stock pile picks........he's who put us where we are?

Not Fletcher, who has used up all that cap space on shitty players, traded away our draft picks for shitty players, and treated this organization's best player in decades like shit.....?

gotta love authentic fans

Hextall did that in 2014, afterward he blew those picks (whiffed on 3 of 8 1st rd picks and 4 of 6 2nd rd picks) and signed Weise and JVR and gave Voracek $8.25M for 8 years, which is looking as bad the Hayes contract.

Fletcher did a good job in the summer of 2019, then screwed up the last two off seasons.

Hextall was given the green light to rebuild and blew it, Fletcher was told to "aggressively retool" and blew it.

Everyone is at fault.

You know that making claim to advanced statistical training just makes your constant misuse of stats look all the more deliberate and dishonest, yeah?

You know other than being an obnoxious contrarian, you don't have a clue?

 

[deadhead]

Deady, I mean this in the nicest way possible, you’re not the smartest guy here so cut the bullshit. You know exactly what you’re posting and why you’re posting it.

You can’t even admit that you cherry pick stats let alone admit that you’ve ever been wrong. The attempted “you’re not a dentist” remark is a bad look and it’s insulting.

Well, I'm smarter than Beef, so there's that.

I don't "cherry pick," I give the rationale behind every inflection point I try to identify.
Data mining (picking the model that provides the desired result) is a no-no, but there is a legitimate form of data mining, which requires accounting for the order in which you test models, but that's far more sophisticated than the modeling used by hockey sites.

The problem is that how a team performs does change over a season as personnel change and players adjust to schemes, so you can't assume an average over the whole season is a valid predictor of future performance. So you want to identify any sustained changes in performance and the reasons for those changes. This is SOP in time series modeling, testing for inflection points (where the underlying model changes), but would probably be difficult to implement in the hockey stat context.

To me, there are three inflection points this season, the first 10 games, where everyone agrees the team looked like shit but was carried by Hart, the next 16 games, when they got comfortable with Torts' scheme but the lines and D-pairs were in constant flux, and starting in Dec 7, when JVR returned, York came up and the lines and D-pairs became set (with Allison replacing MacEwen a week or so later).

To me, if I want to judge the players and the team going forward, Dec 7 is the starting point, b/c the players are in a "comfort zone" and can't blame adjustments or getting used to their linemates for any struggles. And we see a number of players settle down at that point, Frost, Laughton, especially.

Practically all those "metrics" are flawed since they rely on naive linear correlations.
There are some serious issues with biased measures, left out variable error, etc. And chemistry matters but is hard to measure.
The "more sophisticated" metrics have similar weaknesses, they go into deeper detail but then have smaller samples.

But the real problem is that the available raw data is fundamentally flawed, so at best all you can get from them is some suggestive numbers that need to be validated by eyeballs. Proprietary team statistics should be better, b/c they have the money to do more detailed analysis (who was actually responsible for good or bad) and thus work with better raw data. But since it's proprietary, who knows?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I was in utter disbelief when I saw the ASF article about cronyism. He finally caught up to us. How many years did it take him?

He started back in the summer after day one of free agency.