2022/23 Roster Thread XVII: The Days are Getting Longer

[Nizzle]

Love it when a sad old contrarian who gets everything wrong tries to explain how it’s actually everyone else who is wrong.

It’s getting quite tiring to be honest.

 

[CerpinTaxt]

Wish the team was at least good or heading in a positive direction. Reading all these one sided arguments cause people still feed the trolls really gives me the small pp. The Flyers pp if you will.

 

[wasup]

Yes, poor Frost, he'd be an allstar if he hadn't been sabotaged by three different HCs and ruined by a couple months in the AHL.
It's nice that he's finally turning it around, but this mantra that he's been smothered and is improving despite coaching is just silly.

Any who watches him can see that he's much stronger than he was at 20, and far more responsible defensively.
That isn't an accident, it's what they've been stressing for him for years.
And he's spending less time on the perimeter and more pushing plays in traffic.

He's not going to make his living in the slot, or as a forechecker or be a Selke candidate.
But being functionally competent in these areas, and putting out more effort on the back check, has made him a better player.
Next step is to improve his faceoffs. 45% isn't good enough for a 2C.

LOL , Cates is out #1 center and what is his faceoff percentage .

Listened to Tort's pregame today and he was absolutely gaga over Cates defensive play . Says people are complaining about the fact he does not have offense to his game but Tort's believes there is so he is going to keep him there and he will start to produce .

He has the ten pound hammer out now and is going to prove everyone wrong . LOL

Oh sorry I forgot Torts' is god

 

[VladDrag]

"Additionally, we decided to use an “ensemble” of these algorithms to fit our SPM model (here’s wikipedia’s explanation). Given that we wanted to use our model for both long-term and in-season (read: small sample) analysis and evaluation, we found using a collection of various algorithms blended together allowed us to better fit the long-term RAPM outputs for the ultimate use in our WAR model. After much testing and tuning, we found that using three algorithms for each component was the best approach."

Now any statistician would tell you that the statistical properties for such an amalgamation of models is unknown.

This is data mining, pure and simple:

"Each “tuning” iteration consisted of 300 cross-validation runs where a model was trained on 80% of the data and tested on the 20% of data that was held out. The results of these 300 runs were then averaged. This process was repeated, each time adjusting the features that were included in each algorithm until the best set of features was achieved based on the aggregated root-mean-square error for a given tuning iteration. This was done for all 5 of the algorithms for each of the individual components (EV Offense, SH Defense etc). In total, we allowed five algorithms to be used for the 8 component models, which means 40 total algorithms were trained and tuned using the above process. Of those 40 algorithms, we selected the three best for each component, which means 24 algorithms were used in total to create the eight SPM component models (remember 4 components, split by position)."

"Finally, what we might actually want to look at in this case is something akin to the t-values in a linear regression output"

Which is very generous. "Akin." What they're measuring is how well their ad hoc model fits their data.

The team strength adjustment is also ad hoc "We then determine which multiplication factor results in the player summed values that most closely mirror the 11-year RAPM that the models were trained on."

I could go on and on, but the point is that they are "curve fitting" through applying a set of models and picking the one that gives the best results. Which isn't a statistically valid approach, but they're just creating a descriptive model that basically assumes results aren't stochastic, so it doesn't matter - they're fitting an ad hoc model to results, not an explanatory model to predict outcomes.

Point is that their results are suggestive, but nothing more.
Nothing wrong with that, but using EV numbers as if they're "gospel" is foolish.

Of course a model isn’t an end all be all. To paraphrase you back to you, no model is correct and some models are helpful.

The GAR model is not predictive, it is descriptive by nature. GAR is a “metric that attempts to assign a total value to each player, which represents how much that player contributed to their team in a single number. This single number is comprised of multiple components that are ratings for each area of play within a given sport”.

But we are way off topic and down the rabbit hole. My point is that the metrics that I presented earlier has way more context built within it. Now, you can disagree how that context was built in and how much those components are weighted, but it’s an undisputed fact that there is more context buoy into a RAPM, or GAR model vs a xGA model.

 

[Bigkarl]

Ya’ll are masochists. It’s a troll. It has no interest in engaging in an intellectually honest exchange of opinions.

Save yourself time and just reply to its posts with a steaming pile of shit meme

 

[deadhead]

LOL , Cates is out #1 center and what is his faceoff percentage .

Listened to Tort's pregame today and he was absolutely gaga over Cates defensive play . Says people are complaining about the fact he does not have offense to his game but Tort's believes there is so he is going to keep him there and he will start to produce .

He has the ten pound hammer out now and is going to prove everyone wrong . LOL

Oh sorry I forgot Torts' is god

Cates is a LW transitioning to center against top lines. Learning how to win faceoffs on the fly, instead of doing it for years in the CHL, AHL and NHL. Of course he's struggling! He's never going to be a top offensive center, but he has the potential to be a solid middle six center who can be matched against top lines defensively with the right wings.

I don't know why people are so defensive about Frost. He's made substantial improvements in most areas of his game this year, he's never going to live up the hype out of juniors where he excelled against kids, but he is finally looking like a solid middle six center with 2C potential. Which is about the best you could hope for.

It's never been Frost v Cates, they have different skill sets and different histories.
The expectations should be different, Frost must score to have real value, Cates just has to hold his own offensively and not be a cipher.

Actually the one who is a pleasant surprise this year is Laughton, who really struggled out of the gate but has settled in nicely as the 3C who is a swiss army knife, contributing at ES, on the PP and the PK.

Of course a model isn’t an end all be all. To paraphrase you back to you, no model is correct and some models are helpful.

The GAR model is not predictive, it is descriptive by nature. GAR is a “metric that attempts to assign a total value to each player, which represents how much that player contributed to their team in a single number. This single number is comprised of multiple components that are ratings for each area of play within a given sport”.

But we are way off topic and down the rabbit hole. My point is that the metrics that I presented earlier has way more context built within it. Now, you can disagree how that context was built in and how much those components are weighted, but it’s an undisputed fact that there is more context buoy into a RAPM, or GAR model vs a xGA model.

Not challenging that, I like xGA b/c it's quick and dirty and I'm not paying for a marginal upgrade.
I just use it as a check against what I see on the ice.

 

[wasup]

Cates is a LW transitioning to center against top lines. Learning how to win faceoffs on the fly, instead of doing it for years in the CHL, AHL and NHL. Of course he's struggling! He's never going to be a top offensive center, but he has the potential to be a solid middle six center who can be matched against top lines defensively with the right wings.

I don't know why people are so defensive about Frost. He's made substantial improvements in most areas of his game this year, he's never going to live up the hype out of juniors where he excelled against kids, but he is finally looking like a solid middle six center with 2C potential. Which is about the best you could hope for.

It's never been Frost v Cates, they have different skill sets and different histories.
The expectations should be different, Frost must score to have real value, Cates just has to hold his own offensively and not be a cipher.

Actually the one who is a pleasant surprise this year is Laughton, who really struggled out of the gate but has settled in nicely as the 3C who is a swiss army knife, contributing at ES, on the PP and the PK.

It's not the Cates vs Frost at all but you keep trying to nit pick Frost for things all the time . Quoting Frost at 45.7 % faceoff eff is not a second line center but Cates is way worse and he is our #1 center . Nit picking one guy to death while completely absolving another guy for his short comings is lame .

All I'm trying to do is point out they all have things to work on not just Frost .

 

[deadhead]

It's not the Cates vs Frost at all but you keep trying to nit pick Frost for things all the time . Quoting Frost at 45.7 % faceoff eff is not a second line center but Cates is way worse and he is our #1 center . Nit picking one guy to death while completely absolving another guy for his short comings is lame .

All I'm trying to do is point out the all have things to work on not just Frost .

The difference is Frost has 123 NHL games and 65 AHL games under his belt. To be the 2C he not only needs to score 40 or so ES points a year with average defense, you'd like to see him improve to near 50% on the faceoffs.

Cates had 15 NHL games going into this season as a LW, he's going against top centers, so his faceoff struggles are to be expected. Of course he has to improve over his dismal performance, but I'm more patient with him this season - but definitely an area of emphasis if he's gong to stay at center.

Expectations should be guided by the player's talent, experience and role. Different strokes for different folks.

 

[flyerslducks]

What a waste of a season. To not get a top 5 pick this year absolutely blows. Doesn’t look like we can get near a top 5 pick now. Have to pray mtl, Ottawa, and canucks catch fire

 

[Flyer lurker]

Stupid offense!!

Tortorella: "Shot blocking is a very important part of how you play defense. I know some people think that's dinosaur thinking." Goes on to say reg season emphasis nowadays is offense but come stretch/POs, it's all about defense, shot blocking, etc.

@Striiker

 

[VladDrag]

Not challenging that, I like xGA b/c it's quick and dirty and I'm not paying for a marginal upgrade.
I just use it as a check against what I see on the ice

And that stance is fine by me. I don’t agree with it, but at least it makes sense.

 

[wasup]

The difference is Frost has 123 NHL games and 65 AHL games under his belt. To be the 2C he not only needs to score 40 or so ES points a year with average defense, you'd like to see him improve to near 50% on the faceoffs.

Cates had 15 NHL games going into this season as a LW, he's going against top centers, so his faceoff struggles are to be expected. Of course he has to improve over his dismal performance, but I'm more patient with him this season - but definitely an area of emphasis if he's gong to stay at center.

Expectations should be guided by the player's talent, experience and role. Different strokes for different folks.

You are doing it again , quoting Frosts total games but only using Cates 15 games last year . Age wise how far apart are they and did Frost not miss a total season injuried . Context bud context it works both ways .

Also apparently you did not notice yesterday Cates line started the game vs Kaprisov but Tort's immediately switched to Laughton's line as a matchup vs Kaprisov . Problem was Mac and Allison went down and that threw the lines into a blender .

 

[TB87]

Does anyone have access to QoT stats for the Flyers FWDS? I’d be interested in seeing that.

 

[Rebels57]

It’s getting quite tiring to be honest.

Use Igor Silent

It’s getting quite tiring to be honest.

Ya’ll are masochists. It’s a troll. It has no interest in engaging in an intellectually honest exchange of opinions.

Save yourself time and just reply to its posts with a steaming pile of shit meme

Its been going on for 7 years. Its f***ing lunacy.

 

[BiggE]

Has anyone heard an update on Laczynski ? I have not heard a peep but am very interested to see what they will do between Brown and him . I know what should happen but that has nothing to do with will happen .

No one has seen him and Couts for months. Ellis too, but he’s almost certainly dead

 

[Curufinwe]

Stupid offense!!

Tortorella: "Shot blocking is a very important part of how you play defense. I know some people think that's dinosaur thinking." Goes on to say reg season emphasis nowadays is offense but come stretch/POs, it's all about defense, shot blocking, etc.

Playoffs lol.

 

[Rebels57]

Playoffs lol.

The fact that he still thinks "it's all about defense and shot blocking" sort of speaks volumes about how out of touch he is. Did he not see the offensive firepower on display by the Avalanche and Lightning? Sure, you need to play defense and be willing to lay your body on the line, but at the end of the day you have to outscore your opponent. In today's NHL, that's not by scoring 1 or 2 goals.

 

[deadhead]

You are doing it again , quoting Frosts total games but only using Cates 15 games last year . Age wise how far apart are they and did Frost not miss a total season injuried . Context bud context it works both ways .

Also apparently you did not notice yesterday Cates line started the game vs Kaprisov but Tort's immediately switched to Laughton's line as a matchup vs Kaprisov . Problem was Mac and Allison went down and that threw the lines into a blender .

Point is Frost has far more experience taking faceoffs against NHL centers, so you'd expect him to be better at it.

College players tend to start at an older age, they play against older players, but play far fewer games, so while it's better experience than the CHL, basically 2 college seasons equal one AHL season. You see this in baseball as well.

So CHL kid plays a lot against inferior competition, but at 20-21 is usually in the AHL, so if he plays 1 1/2 years before being called up at 22, he's got close to 100 AHL games under his belt v the college kid who often does USHL at 18-19, college at 19-22.

College kids often get cameos the year they come out but often need half a year to a year of AHL before they start.
York at 22, Brink 22? (next season?), Cates at 23, Allison and Laczynski at 24 if they stayed healthy.

Which is why college bound kids make sense in later rounds, they don't count against your 50 man limit until they leave college, and they're unlikely to leave until they've got experience and are physical mature at 22-23 years old. Where you have to carry the CHL kid from 20-22 on your roster while he marinates.

The fact that he still thinks "it's all about defense and shot blocking" sort of speaks volumes about how out of touch he is. Did he not see the offensive firepower on display by the Avalanche and Lightning? Sure, you need to play defense and be willing to lay your body on the line, but at the end of the day you have to outscore your opponent. In today's NHL, that's not by scoring 1 or 2 goals.

Well, I'm sure Torts would love to have McKinnon and Makar or Pointer and Stamkos.

But you have to make do with what you have, given the expectations y'all had for this team before the season (most projections here were in the 60+ point range without Couts and Atkinson), he's gotten about the most you could expect from this team.

And if you saw the playoffs, both the Avs and LIghtning won as much with tight checking as they did with offense.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Playoffs lol.

you know what post from youtube is i have to post...

 

[Ghosts Beer]

There’s kind of an irony here.

All told, the Flyers have stayed pretty damn patient in the aftermath of Hextall’s rebuild.

That is, despite a couple efforts to try to accelerate the process under Dave Scott’s orders, they haven’t strayed too far from rebuilding.

It’s merely taking longer because multiple early draft busts set back the plan.

But they have kept almost all of their young players & prospects (aside from damaged Patrick), even extending them.

They avoided the pitfalls of signing a huge cap-hit older player like Gaudreau.

They moved on from 35-y/o captain G for a good young player in Tippett & a 1st.

And now they have a young team, near the top of the league in 25-and-under production, improving under an excellent coach.

With an above-avg prospect group, many of whom are on the cusp of making the Flyers next season, adding to their youth & depth.

And they’ll make room for them by jettisoning older vets like JVR, Braun, probably Hayes, this deadline/summer.

And have what should be a top-10 pick in a 2023 draft loaded in that range. And two firsts in 2024.

So really, they’ve essentially continued what Hextall set out to do.

It just took more time.

But now the fanbase wants to blow the whole thing up & start over.

 

[kudymen]

Round round lol around, strawmen lolling around

 

[Striiker]

 

[Flyer lurker]

That is, despite a couple efforts to try to accelerate the process under Dave Scott’s orders, they haven’t strayed too far from rebuilding.

Giving up 1's for Risto are not moves rebuilding teams make.
Giving up 2 3 4 for the ada are not moves rebuilding teams make.
Trading 2's to dump Ghost are not moves rebuilding teams make
Not having a 2nd for 3 straight years are not moves rebuilding teams make. When you have 2's you can have a Brink, Allison, Andrae and hope for the future. But you can't win the 50-50 if you don't have the 2nd to begin with.

Trading free agents who will leave for picks at the trade deadline is not rebuilding. Its just common sense. If a playoff teams moves a roster player, it generally means the playoff team was not planning on using that player for the current run. Most likely rental trades are for picks/prospects not at nhl level.

 

[Striiker]

And even with the picks they didn't trade, most were used on low ceiling big players.

The prospect pool is awful, the NHL roster is awful, the future is awful. We need drastic changes and to actually rebuild because whats going on right now is the opposite of a rebuild.

 

[Beef Invictus]

There’s kind of an irony here.

All told, the Flyers have stayed pretty damn patient in the aftermath of Hextall’s rebuild.

That is, despite a couple efforts to try to accelerate the process under Dave Scott’s orders, they haven’t strayed too far from rebuilding.

It’s merely taking longer because multiple early draft busts set back the plan.

But they have kept almost all of their young players & prospects (aside from damaged Patrick), even extending them.

They avoided the pitfalls of signing a huge cap-hit older player like Gaudreau.

They moved on from 35-y/o captain G for a good young player in Tippett & a 1st.

And now they have a young team, near the top of the league in 25-and-under production, improving under an excellent coach.

With an above-avg prospect group, many of whom are on the cusp of making the Flyers next season, adding to their youth & depth.

And they’ll make room for them by jettisoning older vets like JVR, Braun, probably Hayes, this deadline/summer.

And have what should be a top-10 pick in a 2023 draft loaded in that range. And two firsts in 2024.

So really, they’ve essentially continued what Hextall set out to do.

It just took more time.

But now the fanbase wants to blow the whole thing up & start over.

I bolded where your post first falls apart. The first bolded thing is nonsense. Everything after it is more nonsense.


You assured us that if the team was in the exact position it's in now in December (much less now), you would call for Fletcher's firing. But here you are still defending him. Did you lie? Did you expect that Frost would be terrible so you could get out of it by blaming him instead? What's up?