2022/23 Roster Thread XVI: Suite 16, Room for Improvement

[kudymen]

The solution to everything: "get better players." If only it was so easy.

Given the most resounding quote of the management over the past two years is “we just need more top end talent”, I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that you are winking at Chuck Fletcher.

 

[Curufinwe]

To get good players like a 3rd pairing right handed dman with 2 points in 34 games, all you need is a mid 1st, an early 2nd, and $25,500,000.

 

[Striiker]

Charlie had an article dedicated mostly to Frost today, and his major takeaway was that he IS better against worse teams (and he defined it as bottom 12!) than top teams. The Flyers are a bad all-around team -- isn't that a no shit Sherlock observation? Frost even scores more against top 10 teams than middle 10 teams, since this is so small sample. The entire team does worse against top teams. That's what bad teams do! This Frost isolating is plain goofy.

Then you have SanFilippo (in his Provorov article today) saying: "The problem is, while many of the other young Flyers have seemed to show real growth playing in Torts’ structured system, Frost has had zero consistency. He has half a season to figure it out. I’m not confident he gets there." That zero consistency this season is heavily influenced by the team's usage of him early. How can you ignore that part? I guess the same way you can ignore the visible skill growth he's indeed showing the last 4-6 weeks, 1 fresh game aside (because good players NEVER have bad games). Cherry on top: why does no one want to acknowledge he's been respectable defensively? Because it makes the narrative harder.

They’re determined to be as lazy and stupid as possivle

 

[kudymen]

They’re determined to be as lazy and stupid as possivle

I know it is of absolutely no use.... but

 

[deadhead]

Well, I'm suspicious of padding your stats against Zona as well, because watching those games, I don't think I've seen a worse defense all season.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Well, I'm suspicious of padding your stats against Zona as well, because watching those games, I don't think I've seen a worse defense all season.

So lots of players must score four points against them, right? Everyone must do it.

 

[deadhead]

No, it's more that their weakness corresponds to Frost's strength, making plays in space.

What I want to see from Frost the second half is making plays against teams that closely check him, which is a tough assignment, as teams focus on shutting down the opponent's scoring line(s). But if he wants to be considered a 2C and play with top six wings, he has to show he can produce when teams focus on him.

Otherwise he's a 3C at best, and will get 3rd line wingers.

With Cates, I just want to see progress at center, I don't see him as a top six center, more like a better version of Laughton (higher IQ) who can fill various roles but isn't a dynamic offensive player.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I have nothing important happening right now. Let me go through all of Arizona's games and make a list of all the players who have scored 4 points against them. I fear this will take a while, as it's such a nonchalant occurrence that it should be written off.

1) Connor McDavid
2) Morgan Frost
3) JVR
4) Matt Tkachuk
5) Morgan Frost

Wow, that's it. 40% of the list is Frost. That's weird. See, I expected this to be a long list with all kinds of even just average players on it. Since it is apparently so easy to rack up 4 points on this team.

Maybe, perhaps...this feat isn't as easy as its made out to be? And it shouldn't be written off for no reason to push a bizarre pro-management narrative that depicts them as being less incompetent than they are?

 

[Beef Invictus]

No, it's more that their weakness corresponds to Frost's strength, making plays in space.

What I want to see from Frost the second half is making plays against teams that closely check him, which is a tough assignment, as teams focus on shutting down the opponent's scoring line(s). But if he wants to be considered a 2C and play with top six wings, he has to show he can produce when teams focus on him.

Otherwise he's a 3C at best, and will get 3rd line wingers.

With Cates, I just want to see progress at center, I don't see him as a top six center, more like a better version of Laughton (higher IQ) who can fill various roles but isn't a dynamic offensive player.

Good news, he is already doing that. Mission accomplished already. You'll have to move the goalposts again.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Oh and if Frost has a set of strengths that exploits the Coyotes uniquely...he appears to share that set of strengths with a limited list of good players. So, not a very convincing argument there either.

 

[Magua]

Getting to criticize Frost for scoring while criticizing Ghost for defending is like having your cake and eating it too.

 

[Kelmitchell2]

They’re determined to be as lazy and stupid as possivle

They really do suck at their jobs lol that fat f*** blocked me on Twitter because I called him out using stats and everything else and all he could say is whatever "champ" I get paid to do this do you? And then blocked me, dude is a straight up loser, just like the rest of the beat writers we employee

 

[deadhead]

Let's see what Frost does the second half.
He's shown improvement, especially on defense, but he's still inconsistent on offense.
He's got a great opportunity to nail down a 2C role for next season, but he has to seize the moment.

Last ten games Frost is getting the most minutes at center, PP1, Torts is giving him every opportunity to win a job.
First half 1.61 pp/60 (1.69 last 31 games), xGF% 44.98%, (48.16%) HDCF 44.83% (49.33%).

However, lines didn't settle down until JVR returned, so last 15 games:

Frost 2.66 pp/60, xGF 50.72%, GF/60: 3.83, xGF/60: 2.72
Tippett 2.14 pp/60, xGF 55.25%, GF/60: 4.27, xGF/60: 3.01
JVR 2.13 pp/60, xGF 51.57% GF/60: 3.35, xGF/60: 2.81

Cates 1.50 pp/60, xGF 46.51%, GF/60: 2.76, xGF/60: 2.45
TK 2.97 pp/60, xGF 46.40%, GF/60: 3.02, xGF/60: 2.75
Farabee 2.38 pp/60, xGF 43.33%, GF/60: 3.58, xGF/60: 2.43

Last 8 games since Allison returned:
Hayes 3.16 pp/60, xGF 58.91%, GF 3.25, xGF 3.37
Laughton 1.21 pp/60, xGF 57.94%, GF/60: 4.33, xGF/60: 3.31
Allison 1.29 pp/60. xGF 60.95%, GF/60: 3.28, xGF/60: 3.10

Frost has elevated his play since he's had the same linemates for an extended period, but one could be accused of "cherry picking" by relying on a 15 game stretch.

The Laughton line is a smaller sample, but they've been on fire since Allison returned to 3RW.

Maybe chemistry matters?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Let's see what Frost does the second half.
He's shown improvement, especially on defense, but he's still inconsistent on offense.
He's got a great opportunity to nail down a 2C role for next season, but he has to seize the moment.

Last ten games Frost is getting the most minutes at center, PP1, Torts is giving him every opportunity to win a job.
First half 1.61 pp/60 (1.69 last 31 games), xGF% 44.98%, (48.16%) HDCF 44.83% (49.33%).

However, lines didn't settle down until JVR returned, so last 15 games:

Frost 2.66 pp/60, xGF 50.72%, GF/60: 3.83, xGF/60: 2.72
Tippett 2.14 pp/60, xGF 55.25%, GF/60: 4.27, xGF/60: 3.01
JVR 2.13 pp/60, xGF 51.57% GF/60: 3.35, xGF/60: 2.81

Cates 1.50 pp/60, xGF 46.51%, GF/60: 2.76, xGF/60: 2.45
TK 2.97 pp/60, xGF 46.40%, GF/60: 3.02, xGF/60: 2.75
Farabee 2.38 pp/60, xGF 43.33%, GF/60: 3.58, xGF/60: 2.43

Last 8 games since Allison returned:
Hayes 3.16 pp/60, xGF 58.91%, GF 3.25, xGF 3.37
Laughton 1.21 pp/60, xGF 57.94%, GF/60: 4.33, xGF/60: 3.31
Allison 1.29 pp/60. xGF 60.95%, GF/60: 3.28, xGF/60: 3.10

Frost has elevated his play since he's had the same linemates for an extended period, but one could be accused of "cherry picking" by relying on a 15 game stretch.

The Laughton line is a smaller sample, but they've been on fire since Allison returned to 3RW.

Maybe chemistry matters?

He's f***ing 23. Of course he's inconsistent on offense. Just about every 23 year old is; how soon the in-house lesson of TK and their highly premature urge to trade him low is forgotten. He also spent a lot of this season connected to AHL players. You're really scraping for anything, aren't you?

 

[Starat327]

Getting to criticize Frost for scoring while criticizing Ghost for defending is like having your cake and eating it too.

Can you imagine all the fapping that was happening as that sentence, or paragraph, or essay - whatever it was - was typed out?

 

[flyersnorth]

He's f***ing 23. Of course he's inconsistent on offense. Just about every 23 year old is; how soon the in-house lesson of TK and their highly premature urge to trade him low is forgotten. He also spent a lot of this season connected to AHL players. You're really scraping for anything, aren't you?

Tbf, Konecny is sporting a shooting percentage 50% above his career average, and is not sustainable. He's likely having his career year, which I guess is why there has been more noise around moving him now - while his value is at its highest - rather than overpay him in a few years.

I'm honestly torn on this. I really like TK, and he's emerged as a leader. He looks focused and driven on the ice. I really want him around for the next phase. But I kept saying that about Giroux too, and "the next phase" never happened. I have zero trust in the current GM, and close to zero trust in the associate GM apparently in business school.

What does TK return in a trade? DeBrincat fetched a 1st (#7) and 2nd in 2022 and a 3rd in 2024. I doubt a bottom 10 team trades for TK, and almost certainly wouldn't give up their 2023 pick(s). And competitive teams probably need to offload salary in return.

With a competent GM, I'd be more on board, but not with this clown running the show.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Let's see what Frost does the second half.
He's shown improvement, especially on defense, but he's still inconsistent on offense.
He's got a great opportunity to nail down a 2C role for next season, but he has to seize the moment.

Last ten games Frost is getting the most minutes at center, PP1, Torts is giving him every opportunity to win a job.
First half 1.61 pp/60 (1.69 last 31 games), xGF% 44.98%, (48.16%) HDCF 44.83% (49.33%).

However, lines didn't settle down until JVR returned, so last 15 games:

Frost 2.66 pp/60, xGF 50.72%, GF/60: 3.83, xGF/60: 2.72
Tippett 2.14 pp/60, xGF 55.25%, GF/60: 4.27, xGF/60: 3.01
JVR 2.13 pp/60, xGF 51.57% GF/60: 3.35, xGF/60: 2.81

Cates 1.50 pp/60, xGF 46.51%, GF/60: 2.76, xGF/60: 2.45
TK 2.97 pp/60, xGF 46.40%, GF/60: 3.02, xGF/60: 2.75
Farabee 2.38 pp/60, xGF 43.33%, GF/60: 3.58, xGF/60: 2.43

Last 8 games since Allison returned:
Hayes 3.16 pp/60, xGF 58.91%, GF 3.25, xGF 3.37
Laughton 1.21 pp/60, xGF 57.94%, GF/60: 4.33, xGF/60: 3.31
Allison 1.29 pp/60. xGF 60.95%, GF/60: 3.28, xGF/60: 3.10

Frost has elevated his play since he's had the same linemates for an extended period, but one could be accused of "cherry picking" by relying on a 15 game stretch.

The Laughton line is a smaller sample, but they've been on fire since Allison returned to 3RW.

Maybe chemistry matters?

What are you expecting from Frost with 41 games left point production wise? Cates? Tippet? Allison? Joel?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Tbf, Konecny is sporting a shooting percentage 50% above his career average, and is not sustainable. He's likely having his career year, which I guess is why there has been more noise around moving him now - while his value is at its highest - rather than overpay him in a few years.

I'm honestly torn on this. I really like TK, and he's emerged as a leader. He looks focused and driven on the ice. I really want him around for the next phase. But I kept saying that about Giroux too, and "the next phase" never happened. I have zero trust in the current GM, and close to zero trust in the associate GM apparently in business school.

What does TK return in a trade? DeBrincat fetched a 1st (#7) and 2nd in 2022 and a 3rd in 2024. I doubt a bottom 10 team trades for TK, and almost certainly wouldn't give up their 2023 pick(s). And competitive teams probably need to offload salary in return.

With a competent GM, I'd be more on board, but not with this clown running the show.

You can drop his shooting percentage to career average and he'd still be doing great, though.

 

[deadhead]

Frost, Farabee, Tippett seem to be the beneficiaries of puck luck, as the team is scoring at a much higher pace than expected goals when they're on the ice lately.

Laughton and Allison seem to be an outlier in the opposite direction, the team is scoring and creating scoring chances at a much higher rate than reflected in their individual scoring stats - which suggests they're helping to set up scoring plays but not getting credit on the scoresheet.

Over a larger sample (second half of the season) these things should even out.
Given the team finally has some stability in the forward lines, we'll get a good feel the next 20 games.
At that point, if JVR is traded, the next challenge will be to integrate a new LW (Hayes promoted, Lycksell?) in the top 6.

 

[Curufinwe]

Let's see what Frost does the second half.

Let's see what Cates does in the second half, because seven primary points at ES in 41 games is awful production for a top 6 center whose most common winger is Konecny.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Beef Invictus]

Let's see what Cates does in the second half, because seven primary points at ES in 41 games is awful production for a top 6 center whose most common winger is Konecny.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

I was repeatedly told that Tortorella was so pro-offense that this kind of production wouldn't cut it for him and something would be changed.

 

[deadhead]

Cates isn't a top 6 center, nor has anyone suggested he is.
But neither is Laughton, and the jury is still out on Frost. And I don't think you want to see more of Brown than is absolutely necessary.
So Cates gets the job by default.

I just want to see Cates get comfortable and produce more on offense, but the only way he stays as a top 6 center is if he makes a huge jump next season.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Cates "getting the job by default" sounds like a mistake through roster building by the General Manager if you ask me but then again he only has made one mistake so that can't possibly be the case.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Frost, Farabee, Tippett seem to be the beneficiaries of puck luck, as the team is scoring at a much higher pace than expected goals when they're on the ice lately.

Laughton and Allison seem to be an outlier in the opposite direction, the team is scoring and creating scoring chances at a much higher rate than reflected in their individual scoring stats - which suggests they're helping to set up scoring plays but not getting credit on the scoresheet.

Over a larger sample (second half of the season) these things should even out.
Given the team finally has some stability in the forward lines, we'll get a good feel the next 20 games.
At that point, if JVR is traded, the next challenge will be to integrate a new LW (Hayes promoted, Lycksell?) in the top 6.

You ate finally on board it may not happen.......

Let's see what Cates does in the second half, because seven primary points at ES in 41 games is awful production for a top 6 center whose most common winger is Konecny.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

why always bring up Cates when Frost is mentioned? So strange.

 

[deadhead]

Cates "getting the job by default" sounds like a mistake through roster building by the General Manager if you ask me but then again he only has made one mistake so that can't possibly be the case.

Or just bad luck, a healthy Couts and everything falls into place.
A healthy Couts and Patrick, and Kevin Hayes has a different address.

Problem is at some point you admit you've been snakebit and stop doubling down and retrench.