2022/23 Roster Thread XVI: Suite 16, Room for Improvement

[Adtar02]

I am about to loose it again on someone being completely dead wrong with statistics again.

 

[deadhead]

At the end of the day do total points trump pp/60?

It's both. Total points depend on opportunities, PP1, PP2, or no PP, what line you're on, who are your linemates.

pp/60 shows what you do with the even strength opportunities you're provided, put up a good pp/60 relative to the quality of linemates and you'll get more opportunities, then it's a matter of sustaining that rate of production.

Last season, all forwards (800+ minutes at 5x5):
#48 - 2.40 (median 1st line forward)
#144 - 1.70 (median 2nd line forward)
#240 - 1.08 (median 3rd line forward)
Only 256 forwards played 800 minutes.

Drop the threshold to 640 minutes:
#48 - 2.46 (median 1st line forward)
#144 - 1.78 (median 2nd line forward)
#240 - 1.44 (median 3rd line forward),
#336 - 0.73 (median 4th line forward),

This season, 300 minutes:
#48 - 2.37 (median 1st line forward)
#144 - 1.77 (median 2nd line forward)
#240 - 1.34 (median 3rd line forward),
#336 - 0.32 (median 4th line forward), only 330 qualifying forwards

Flyer forwards: [last 29 games]
TK 2.49 (34) [2.75]
JVR [2.42]
Farabee 2.37 (48) [2.26]
Hayes 2.19 (77) [2.17]
Tippett 1.91 (120) [2.03]
Frost 1.70 (153) [1.80]

MacEwen 1.13 (275) [0.91]
Cates 1.08 (282) [1.29]
Laughton 0.92 (303) [1.10]
Deslauriers 0.83 (308) [0.44]
Brown [0.62]

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

NHL teams still mostly swear by raw point totals & ice time when it comes to market valuations. See Rasmus Ristolainen for example.

 

[deadhead]

Risto got overvalued for the same reason Chariot and Savard got overvalued, a lot of HCs and GMs love big physical D-men with functional mobility.

 

[Beef Invictus]

At the end of the day do total points trump pp/60?

What's better, a player who puts up 60 points playing 30 minutes a game, or a player who puts up 60 points playing 15 minutes a game?

 

[ajgoal]

What's better, a player who puts up 60 points playing 30 minutes a game, or a player who puts up 60 points playing 15 minutes a game?

They're the same picture

 

[Striiker]

Based on what we know about hockey…

The first player scores at a lower rate, meaning he must be better defensively. Also, playing 30 minutes per night means he’s an elite minute eater, which is one of the most valuable things you can be, regardless of what happens in those minutes.

The second player scores at a far higher rate, which means he’s just stat padding and doesn’t help his team. Must be bad defensively too.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

There was a point where it was productive to prove these people wrong because it outted them as out and out trolls. We're well beyond that point now.

There's no productive conversation. With every clack of their keyboard, they contradict a previous statement they made. Every time they're proven wrong (and I do mean EVERY), they find some weird way to back out into something even more ridiculous. Save yourselves. Igor silent and move on, I beg you all.

1000% this ^^^^

 

[BiggE]

Based on what we know about hockey…

The first player scores at a lower rate, meaning he must be better defensively. Also, playing 30 minutes per night means he’s an elite minute eater, which is one of the most valuable things you can be, regardless of what happens in those minutes.

The second player scores at a far higher rate, which means he’s just stat padding and doesn’t help his team. Must be bad defensively too.

Everyone knows that the only stats that matter are how many hits one delivers and how many shots one blocks with one's face. All else is just window dressing and random cuteness.

 

[Striiker]

There was a point where it was productive to prove these people wrong because it outted them as out and out trolls. We're well beyond that point now.

There's no productive conversation. With every clack of their keyboard, they contradict a previous statement they made. Every time they're proven wrong (and I do mean EVERY), they find some weird way to back out into something even more ridiculous. Save yourselves. Igor silent and move on, I beg you all.

Switching from attempting to argue with brick walls and NPCs to just shitposting on here made the experience much more enjoyable.

 

[flyers0909]

Literally, right here:

Lmao thank you.

 

[IronMarshal]

Is TK a first line winger? His numbers this year say that he is. The roster seems like trash with a few good looking middle six guys, a very good goalie and a 2 or 3 middle pair DMen. But then there is TK.

 

[Magua]

I think it has less to do with quality of linemates than just getting comfortable with the speed of the NHL game and no longer gliding through half his shifts.
[...]
A player like Frost should be less dependent on linemates b/c he should be controlling the puck and making plays

The only world where this makes a lick of sense is one where you can retroactively justify not being wrong about Frost. Playing with sub-NHLers absolutely matters. Nothing is more important than quality of linemates -- everyone is dependent on linemates.

If he was still playing with those linemates in 4th line minutes, he'd be in the same spot he was to start the season: zero confidence, zero production. And his entire game is based around connecting plays. He's not Barzal. Yes, he's opened up the bag of tricks to do more himself -- and desperately needed to -- but at heart, he's a facilitator. If he's not playing with impact NHL offensive players, those plays are as wasted as Japanese Wagyu steak on a raccoon. This is ridiculous.

 

[Striiker]

And that someone is Dino Torts.

 

[Curufinwe]

NHL teams still mostly swear by raw point totals & ice time when it comes to market valuations. See Rasmus Ristolainen for example.

Unfortunately for the next GM who will have to try and move his worst-in-the-NHL contract, 2 points in 31 games or 0.11 ESP/60 both sound kind of bad.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I still get the sense Frost isn’t here next year the way people either that work &/or cover the team talk about him.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

I still get the sense Frost isn’t here next year the way people either that work &/or cover the team talk about him.

One of the few players on the team who's fun to watch so, makes sense.

This is ridiculous.

What's ridiculous is the raccoon hate going on in here.

 

[deadhead]

The only world where this makes a lick of sense is one where you can retroactively justify not being wrong about Frost. Playing with sub-NHLers absolutely matters. Nothing is more important than quality of linemates -- everyone is dependent on linemates.

Tell it to Hayes, his scoring has been pretty steady on any line, though he looks more comfortable at wing.
It's not just the quality of linemates, it's chemistry as well.
Hayes at wing is a much better passer than I expected, and that makes him a good fit with Laughton.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

ASF said that Ersson is likely sticking for the rest of the year & that the Flyers are likely going to carry three goalies. He said they still like Sandstrom too & feel he would be claimed on waivers if they put him on.

They feel Ersson could be a 1G in the NHL & could be soon. So they want to get more looks at him going forward this year in the NHL.

 

[deadhead]

Is TK a first line winger? His numbers this year say that he is. The roster seems like trash with a few good looking middle six guys, a very good goalie and a 2 or 3 middle pair DMen. But then there is TK.

I think if Couts comes back 100%, Farabee and TK will give you first line production with him.
Not sure Frost can carry a first line.

Farabee - Couts - TK
Gauthier - Frost - Tippett
Lycksell - Cates - Brink
Desnoyers - Laczynski - Allison

Or some combination of the above.
With JVR, Hayes and Laughton moved out.

 

[TB87]

I still get the sense Frost isn’t here next year the way people either that work &/or cover the team talk about him.

It the current office is here next season, I could see this. They have a very short list of players they like: shoot first FWDS, try-hard JAG FWDS who can’t score and are poor defensively, and defenseman who are big that can’t defend (or process the game fast enough). The importance of Hockey IQ means f***-all to this front office.


Better pull the plug on Frost though! He’s a weird case. Losing like 18 months of development due to injury is a big deal. Anyone who says or thinks otherwise is just trolling. He’s just now figuring out a way to skill stacking/blending consistently at this level (I’m hearing this from people who watch this godforsaken team regularly). There’s no downside to sticking with him to see what else he can accomplish and turn into really. Next contract isn’t going to break the bank either.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I still get the sense Frost isn’t here next year the way people either that work &/or cover the team talk about him.

Torts the other day while talking to the midday show on 97.5 singled out wanting to see Frost the rest of the year to see if he is someone they want to keep here.

 

[Striiker]

The fact that he's not a lock to be here really says it all about Torts and Fletchers immense stupidity.

I'll never understand how someone can be so stupid that they don't want guys like Ghost, Voracek, Giroux, TK, and Frost, but they lose their minds over guys like Ristolainen, Deslauriers, MacEwen, and every trash "sniper" they can find.

 

[Magua]

Tell it to Hayes, his scoring has been pretty steady on any line, though he looks more comfortable at wing.
It's not just the quality of linemates, it's chemistry as well.
Hayes at wing is a much better passer than I expected, and that makes him a good fit with Laughton.

Tell it to the 30 year old, $50 mil player with nearly 600 NHL games as a career 45-55 point player? You're in such a pretzel trying to avoid a mea culpa that you're comparing this guy to a 2nd year player finding his way.

Hayes' most common linemates are Konecny (by a lot -- 282 min. to Frost's 38 min.), Farabee, Laughton, Cates, Tippett. You're purposefully understating the linemate disparity when Frost was with MacEwen, Deslauriers, Laczynski, Willman, etc. for weeks on end to start the year, with 12/13 minutes. The funny part is Frost is more productive in rate scoring with most of Hayes' most common linemates than Hayes.

Torts the other day while talking to the midday show on 97.5 singled out wanting to see Frost the rest of the year to see if he is someone they want to keep here.

This is so weird when you move beyond the surface level, where it sounds fine. They clearly came into the year with a bias against him. I don't even disagree that he's in the shit-or-get-off-the-pot stage of his career arc, but they came into the year not giving him a fair chance. And he's in his 23 year old season.

He's tracking well the last month and a half, but let's say he's in the ~35-40 point range at the end of the season. Has a 24 year old in his 3rd year, with a year and a half missed, never then taken another step? He clearly looks like an NHLer, this team has usage galore available. Why is it just Frost whose evaluation must be signed, sealed, delivered this season?

(Torts really nailed William Karlsson's evaluation too in his age 23 season.)

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

This is so weird when you move beyond the surface level, where it sounds fine. They clearly came into the year with a bias against him. I don't even disagree that he's in the shit-or-get-off-the-pot stage of his career arc, but they came into the year not giving him a fair chance. And he's in his 23 year old season. He's tracking well the last month and a half, but let's say he's in the ~35-40 point range at the end of the season. Has a 24 year old in his 3rd year, with a year and a half missed, never then taken another step?

Torts really nailed William Karlsson's evaluation too in his age 23 season.

I mean to me like Frost, Cates, & Tippett are all tracking to be guys who could potentially be useful middle of the lineup guys going forward. They’re all around the same age. They all have shown good, bad, & indifferent at times this year. It just seems like Frost always gets the “but” for any positives & has his flaws picked apart. It just seems like minds were already kind of made up to begin with & anything short of a barrier being completely smashed that wasn’t gonna change.

Obviously Cates & Tippett’s current deals extend into next year where Frost’s don’t. But Frost shouldn’t cost much to extend.