2022/23 Roster Thread XVI: Suite 16, Room for Improvement

[FLYguy3911]

I'd venture a guess if you made a list of all the players with multiple 4+ point games this season, it would be a pretty exclusive group of players.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I don't think we should be nearly as confident as we are that using seasons as breakpoints is the best idea let alone chopping off 10 games because we've decided something happened.

I'd venture a guess if you made a list of all the players with multiple 4+ point games this season, it would be a pretty exclusive group of players.

StatMuse is the best way to do these queries unless you have a sports ref sub. I chopped off the 1x results.

I would call that an encouraging list.

 

[Striiker]

Also everyone please keep in mind that Fletcher went out of his way to actively shop Konecny before this season and throughout last season, and even told him to expect a trade.

The best player on the team this year by a thousand miles and he was the latest guy that Fletcher identified as a problem and desperately wanted gone. Imagine if he had got his way and had been successful in getting rid of Voracek, Ghost, Giroux, and then TK in rapid succession. The guy just hates skill.

 

[Striiker]

I'd venture a guess if you made a list of all the players with multiple 4+ point games this season, it would be a pretty exclusive group of players.

StatMuse is the best way to do these queries unless you have a sports ref sub. I chopped off the 1x results.

I would call that an encouraging list.

But Frost is the only one who gets to play Arizona more than once, so that's not really fair to the rest of them.

 

[kudymen]

Official stat this is hands down the dumbest hill to die on I’ve seen during my eleven years on hf

 

[Curufinwe]

When it comes to contract all that matter is the bottom line total points.

Which team are you the GM of?

 

[Curufinwe]

Official stat this is hands down the dumbest hill to die on I’ve seen during my eleven years on hf

Did you see when he wouldn't accept the Flyers had said that Hart had a concussion even after evidence was provided of the Flyers saying that Hart had a concussion?

Have you tried NHL.com?

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Yikes, that cap between Frost and Cates at 5v5 is officially huge.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

 

[deadhead]

Funny, sure looks like an inflection point after game 10.
Or you could use game 18 or so when play "stabilized."

 

[deadhead]

Or you could use xGF%

 

[Curufinwe]

Philadelphia Flyers Team Report

www.naturalstattrick.com

Funny, sure looks like an inflection point.

An inflection point in that they started scoring less, conceding more, and losing all the time.

First 10 games: 5-3-2 (2.6 GF/GP - 2.7 GA/GP)

Next 15 games: 3-9-3 (2.2 GF/GP - 3.6 GA/GP)

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Oh boy, here we go again.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

View attachment 631415

Funny, sure looks like an inflection point after game 10.
Or you could use game 18 or so when play "stabilized."

So… what you’re saying is that you’re cherry picking.

 

[deadhead]

An inflection point in that they started scoring less, conceding more, and losing all the time.

First 10 games: 5-3-2 (2.6 GF/GP - 2.7 GA/GP)

Next 15 games: 3-9-3 (2.2 GF/GP - 3.6 GA/GP)

Obviously you were MIA back then since everyone agreed that they were basically riding Hart playing out of his gourd.
Actual scoring is stochastic, which is why people turned to advanced metrics, it's funny how you use +/- but call it something else.

It's pretty obvious when you look at those charts that something changed around game 10-12, it wasn't adding talent (they actually subtracted talent for a stretch due to injuries). They did a better job of controlling play but a worse job of finishing, probably due to JVR being injured as well as some other players.

So what was it?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Obviously you were MIA back then since everyone agreed that they were basically riding Hart playing out of his gourd.
Actual scoring is stochastic, which is why people turned to advanced metrics, it's funny how you use +/- but call it something else.

It's pretty obvious when you look at those charts that something changed around game 10-12, it wasn't adding talent (they actually subtracted talent for a stretch due to injuries). They did a better job of controlling play but a worse job of finishing, probably due to JVR being injured as well as some other players.

So what was it?

They've largely been riding their goalies the entire season.

Last night's game is what, the 3rd? 4th? Where they actually outplayed their opponent.

 

[Magua]

Or you could use xGF%

Everyone knew the Flyers weren't true 37 xGF% bad (neck and neck with Arizona) because that's basically not possible historically and based on their roster; it was as sustainable as their record. That's your 10 game sample you want to throw out. I'll even play along! They improve from 31st to 23rd in adj. 5v5 xGF% if you want to throw out that sample of 1/4 the season. They're 25th in xGF/60, 19th in xGA/60 in that span. They're 32nd on the PP in GF/60 and xGF/60; 18th on the PK in GA/60 and 23rd in xGA/60.

That is what you want to hang your hat on, totally removing the first 10 games? I'll tell you what that looks like to me: bottom 10 across the board mediocrity. Not to mention the goaltending they've gotten to prop them up more. You're trying to argue, with everything we know about the future outlook, that this is good? It just looks like a dead end regression to mediocrity, no more no less. What is your overarching point?

(The funny part is a lot of this surge coincides with not playing bums like MacEwen as the 7th forward; Deslauriers on the 3rd line with an absolutely buried Frost; York being called up. Some of this is regression, some of it is just getting their heads out of their asses with the personnel at hand -- and you were giddy or in agreement about multiple of these things tanking their team statistics.)

 

[JojoTheWhale]

*Edit* It's my anniversary. I really shouldn't be doing this today.

 

[DancingPanther]

*Edit* It's my anniversary. I really shouldn't be doing this today.

That is a very fun thing for you, jojo

I don't think we should be nearly as confident as we are that using seasons as breakpoints is the best idea let alone chopping off 10 games because we've decided something happened.



StatMuse is the best way to do these queries unless you have a sports ref sub. I chopped off the 1x results.

I would call that an encouraging list.

Eight lol

 

[landsbergfan]

I don't think we should be nearly as confident as we are that using seasons as breakpoints is the best idea let alone chopping off 10 games because we've decided something happened.



StatMuse is the best way to do these queries unless you have a sports ref sub. I chopped off the 1x results.

I would call that an encouraging list.

Wow so he’s half as good as Nate Thompson

 

[kudymen]

Wow so he’s half as good as Nate Thompson

Tag him

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Tag him

 

[wasup]

who is preaching? you clearly have me confused with others. What channels are the game usually on?

So is it safe to say you have higher expectations for Frost when compared to Cates?

I look at the player and look at his skill set ( mechanics ) over a couple of years of play .

As far as offensive play, yes I have higher "expectation" for Frost . On penalty kill , last min of games and defensive play I have higher expectations for Cates . They are both valuable just in different roles .

Cates . I quite like him . It's the trying to drive a square peg in a round hole , it drives me nuts . Tort's said in a interview earlier that he really like how Cates plays off the puck so he was going to put him in every position to succeed offensively . So Tort's is completely blind to his skill set of what type of player he is or has been for the last 5 years or so and he does not care cause he likes how he plays off the puck . It makes no sense . Finally last night I see he pulled Cates off pp #2 after pulling him of pp#1 a week earlier , who would have thunk .

A lot of people on here have no clue what they are looking at , they look at a piece of paper or just spew crap just for the sake of spewing crap . It's the reason I respect Magua's opinion he watches and breaks down mechanics and the players strength's and weaknesses and tries to project from there . Does not mean he is always right but he is using the right way of trying to project .

On another note .
This will drive a few on here off the deep end but I have seen quite a stride in Risto's defensive play over the last couple weeks . Does not mean he is worth anywhere near what he is getting payed or what he cost to get him but objectively looking , I have seen improvement ( cudos to the coaching staff for that )

 

[deadhead]

Everyone knew the Flyers weren't true 37 xGF% bad (neck and neck with Arizona) because that's basically not possible historically and based on their roster; it was as sustainable as their record. That's your 10 game sample you want to throw out. I'll even play along! They improve from 31st to 23rd in adj. 5v5 xGF% if you want to throw out that sample of 1/4 the season. They're 25th in xGF/60, 19th in xGA/60 in that span. They're 32nd on the PP in GF/60 and xGF/60; 18th on the PK in GA/60 and 23rd in xGA/60.

That is what you want to hang your hat on, totally removing the first 10 games? I'll tell you what that looks like to me: bottom 10 across the board mediocrity. Not to mention the goaltending they've gotten to prop them up more. You're trying to argue, with everything we know about the future outlook, that this is good? It just looks like a dead end regression to mediocrity, no more no less. What is your overarching point?

(The funny part is a lot of this surge coincides with not playing bums like MacEwen as the 7th forward; Deslauriers on the 3rd line with an absolutely buried Frost; York being called up. Some of this is regression, some of it is just getting their heads out of their asses with the personnel at hand -- and you were giddy or in agreement about multiple of these things tanking their team statistics.)

You totally miss the point. It has nothing to do with the team being "good," it's obvious they're talent deficient.
It has to do with judging players, you'll get a better read on players if you ignore a period where the team was a clusterf--- .

Torts juggled lines and roles b/c he's evaluating players as much as he's trying to win games.
He wants to win games not b/c he'll make the POs but because players don't develop well on really bad teams b/c at some point they just check out. Winning is a reward for hard work, he wants to win enough so players don't get discouraged.

Cates is a good example, he's tried him in various roles, seeing what the kid can handle, where he's over the head, and where he might be coached up.
He's done that with TK, given him more responsibilities and treated him like a key player rather than a one dimensional scorer, to see if he could handle that role.
If Frost keeps improving, I'm sure he'll get more usage, PK, key situations, etc. Same with Tippett.
York has already moved up to the first pair with Provorov.

 

[flyers0909]

Does that make it official or just tracked? Honest question?

When it comes to contract all that matter is the bottom line total points.

Do you have any proof that point totals are the only thing that matter in contract negotiations?

 

[Magua]

You totally miss the point. It has nothing to do with the team being "good," it's obvious they're talent deficient.
It has to do with judging players, you'll get a better read on players if you ignore a period where the team was a clusterf--- .

And I don't even disagree with that, although you minimize how self-inflicted this clusterf*** was with needlessly muddled player usage, and you weren't so dismissive of that early sample as it was happening, wins and all.

But we've also done this song and dance before, and I know that you're using sample sizes to make certain points about certain players to prove the Hive wrong. As if manipulating Ristolainen's specific on-ice data sample over 30 games dispels the other 600, or the other uglier details of said sample. And then you use your 2-3 game sample sizes to get "reads" on certain young players, or act hyper-critical over other 10 game sample sizes of an offensive player being used as a 13th forward with sub-replacement players.

No one is critical of the idea of seasonal and developmental trends; we just don't like the inconsistency. By your logic, you should be leading the charge for Frost's arc. Or saying Lycksell (or whoever) needs a real 20 game sample. But you don't. We get the Late Blooming MacEwen Saga. Where's that trending? A major reason for the team uptick is just playing the kids.

 

[deadhead]

I've said nice things about Frost, he's in the same boat as Tippett, both have shown real improvement, now they have to continue that arc the second half, like I said months ago, they're very similar, talented underachievers who at 23 need to produce.

The first ten games were chaotic, but Torts was trying both to get players to buy into the scheme and to get a feel for chemistry, and injuries didn't help in terms of putting lines together.

MacEwen is a limited player, with Sedlak he was pretty solid, with Brown he's lost, Now they have three limited players on the 4th line whose skills are redundant instead of complementary. But they're placeholders. Laczynski will return at some point.

Lycksell is best served playing on the 1st line in LHV until JVR is traded, then there's an obvious spot in the top 9 for him.
Brink will push Aliison down b/c you're not moving TK and Tippett off the top 2 lines.
Desnoyers has the skill and experience to start at 4C or 4LW and PK, then move up the food chain.

But there's no rush, when they come up it's more to get a taste of the NHL to prepare for TC next fall.