2022/23 Roster Thread XVI: Suite 16, Room for Improvement

[Beef Invictus]

And just like that, we have the "GMs collectively are infallible" nonsense that requires ignoring a ton of context. Fantastic.

Fletcher has never done wrong. Truly.

 

[Magua]

An intelligent GM takes advantage of the overvaluing of certain players and the undervaluing of others. He isn't taken advantage of by the overvaluing and beholden to the undervaluing. Guess which one is Chuck Fletcher.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

OK, the Flyers have the 7th worst points percentage in the NHL.

6th to 9th from the bottom is probably a good estimate of where the Flyers will finish in the standings.

Chicago, Anaheim, Columbus, and San Jose are much worse. Arizona and Montreal are slightly worse than the Flyers record-wise. I kind of doubt both will rise above the Flyers by season's end, but one of them could.

Of the the teams just ahead of the Flyers: Florida is unlikely to drop below the Flyers, and Vancouver and St. Louis probably will stay above the Flyers, though I guess it's possible both could fall with injuries.

Odds of the #1 or #2 pick:

6th worst: 7.5%, 7.9%
7th worst: 6.5%, 6.9%
8th worst: 6.0%, 6.4%
9th worst: 5.0%, 5.4%

Compare that to the teams that finish 2nd and 3rd worst:

2nd worst: 13.5%, 14.4%
3rd worst: 11.5%, 11.5%
4th worst: 9.5%, 9.8%
5th worst: 8.5%, 8.8%

Even the dead last team only has a 25% chance at Bedard, 75% chance of not picking first.

So is it really the right strategy to intentionally make the team as bad as possible?

To trade away their best players in TK, Sanheim, Provorov, etc. (who are still pretty young) in order to better "compete" with .300 points % teams like Chicago, Anaheim, Columbus, and San Jose to be worst of the lot?

For an at best 25% chance to take Bedard, and more likely a 13.5% to 8.5% chance to take Bedard?

All while you can keep your best young players, start building improvement *this season* rather than actively and intentionally making things even worse, and still have a 7.5% to 5% chance at winning Bedard?

Worst case scenario an improving team headed in the right direction toward next season ends up with the 6th to 10th overall draft choice in a very deep draft where they will still get an unusually excellent prospect in that range.

I won’t argue the percentages whatsoever, but the fact that you don’t discuss the return on any/all of those pieces in the grand scheme of a rebuild (which arguing how we do is fine, but it’s fairly conclusive we DO need one) skews the argument. That could potentially be multiple first rounders above our current high pick in what is touted as a very talent laden draft. They’re all lottery balls, but the flyers need to hit on some high talent to bring them back into the conversation.

It’s not apples to apples but I always look back at the 06-07 season. They were in a position to do a quick reset because they had cap flexibility and some upper echelon talent thanks to that 03-04 draft. The flyers don’t have either of those luxuries currently.

 

[Ironmanrulez]

No, because they brought in all of his buddies and the organization made him the center of marketing. Denying that is not based in any type of reality.

You live in literal fantasy land.

Similarly, if Dave Scott was in charge Johnny Gaudreau would be a Flyer but he’s not, Chuck Fletcher is. Also, don’t let the fact that Gaudreau isn’t a Flyer distract you from the fact that they did try and get him by moving out JVR despite their claims that they didn’t.

I say Haydog pitched them the idea that he has a lot of friends who would want to play for the flyers, if Cucky sign him too a monstrous contract. Cucky heard it and Haydog got his contract!

easy game easy life!

 

[renberg]

An intelligent GM would be hip to the fact that there are several organizations that are in drastic need of defensemen and are willing to pay in order to obtain one or two. It’s not like the Flyers don’t have several of them that they could easily move.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The fact is that a lot of the good teams have achieved and maintained their status by victimizing a lot of other GMs around the league. Fletcher is a victim GM. The juiciest victim in the league. He sucks. The people pumping him full of their sweaty advice suck. The entire Clarke GM tree is an ATM for the league and they're too stupid and full of themselves to realize it.

 

[deadhead]

An intelligent GM would be hip to the fact that there are several organizations that are in drastic need of defensemen and are willing to pay in order to obtain one or two. It’s not like the Flyers don’t have several of them that they could easily move.

It's hard to pull off deals until close to the TDL, which is why you see a flurry of deals starting about a week before.
Until then, GMs rarely pull the trigger:

1) they want to wait to see what they need, a free fall could turn them into sellers, a key injury into a buyer
2) they want to reduce the cap hit, since most PO teams tend to be close to the cap, even with retention, after 60 games they can stockpile cap room for a TDL acquisition they couldn't swing in January.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

It's hard to pull off deals until close to the TDL, which is why you see a flurry of deals starting about a week before.
Until then, GMs rarely pull the trigger:

1) they want to wait to see what they need, a free fall could turn them into sellers, a key injury into a buyer
2) they want to reduce the cap hit, since most PO teams tend to be close to the cap, even with retention, after 60 games they can stockpile cap room for a TDL acquisition they couldn't swing in January.

1) or hanging around turns them into a buyer. That would be entertaining to watch happen. Chuck wants to get some reinforcements. Maybe he acts early.

Too bad they are capped out. Not chucks fault though.

 

[Striiker]

An intelligent GM knows that Ghost is worth more to a “contending team” than his cap hit, so he doesn’t even attempt to trade him in the first place. The fact that he even tried shows his hilarious incompetence.

Arizona embarrassed him in the trade, then Ghost further embarrassed him with his play. And that’s before the Ristolainen disaster.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

An intelligent GM knows that Ghost is worth more to a “contending team” than his cap hit, so he doesn’t even attempt to trade him in the first place. The fact that he even tried shows his hilarious incompetence.

Arizona embarrassed him in the trade, then Ghost further embarrassed him with his play. And that’s before the Ristolainen disaster.

key lime or lemon meringue pie?

 

[deadhead]

An intelligent GM knows that Ghost is worth more to a “contending team” than his cap hit, so he doesn’t even attempt to trade him in the first place. The fact that he even tried shows his hilarious incompetence.

Arizona embarrassed him in the trade, then Ghost further embarrassed him with his play. And that’s before the Ristolainen disaster.

Arizona got Zito to give them a 2nd AND a prospect for ONE year of Stralman at $5M.
Guess he should feel embarrassed?

NOBODY wanted Ghost and his 2yr/$9M contract, even for free. That's a fact. Because if they did, they could have claimed him or taken him off the Flyers' hands that summer.

That was the going price, whether they should have moved Ghost at all is another matter, but I don't think Scott was prepared to fire AV, eat $15M and start rebuilding in the summer of 2021, do you?

 

[blackjackmulligan]

Arizona got Zito to give them a 2nd AND a prospect for ONE year of Stralman at $5M.
Guess he should feel embarrassed?

NOBODY wanted Ghost and his 2yr/$9M contract, even for free. That's a fact. Because if they did, they could have claimed him or taken him off the Flyers' hands that summer.

That was the going price, whether they should have moved Ghost at all is another matter, but I don't think Scott was prepared to fire AV, eat $15M and start rebuilding in the summer of 2021, do you?

but but the cap. He had negative value. That is a fact. What he has done since that trade doesn't change that fact.

 

[Beef Invictus]

key lime or lemon meringue pie?

Both

Reminder for all that pumpkin pie is akin to eating out of a Long John Silver's dumpster.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Arizona got Zito to give them a 2nd AND a prospect for ONE year of Stralman at $5M.
Guess he should feel embarrassed?

NOBODY wanted Ghost and his 2yr/$9M contract, even for free. That's a fact. Because if they did, they could have claimed him or taken him off the Flyers' hands that summer.

That was the going price, whether they should have moved Ghost at all is another matter, but I don't think Scott was prepared to fire AV, eat $15M and start rebuilding in the summer of 2021, do you?

AV can be told to eat shit. He's not in charge. Did you know that? Coaches aren't in charge.

 

[BernieParent]

I dont think this effects any value at all. Team sknow what they are getting from Hayes.

They do but they also know they are dealing with a GM who is very motivated to move Hayes. And Fletcher doesn't have a track record of shrewd trade skills.

 

[Striiker]

Charlie is an embarrassment.

 

[DancingPanther]

It's not nice to win. At all. Every win is deluding and only offers some job security to everyone who doesn't deserve it, all while reinforcing a losing brand of hockey. The worst thing the Flyers can do right now is win

 

[Larry44]

Guys, I’m stumped.

I’ve now looked at every tweet, article, news report, podcast, and press conference from the Voracek/Atkinson trade onwards and I haven’t seen a single person say that Atkinson was the only option.

I’m starting to get a little worried that this might not be true. But how could that be? People wouldn’t post such an easily disprovable lie, would they?

I remember Chuckles being asked why he didn’t try to get Dpicks and/or youth for Jake instead of a guy Jake’s age with longer term. He said Atkinson was the guy he wanted and the extra term was fine because the hit was smaller.

Now both of them are done for this season….at least.

 

[DancingPanther]

Betterfitkinson

 

[tucson83]

As we've seen in the past, betting on the lottery is a fool's game. Perhaps I'm too much of a cynic but I believe that the league FO gets involved and puts their fingers on the scale to determine who gets that top pick. To me it's no accident that Pittsburgh got Crosby; that the Devils have had a run on early picks above their finish line. This is a business and the League FO, for whatever reason, wants certain franchises to succeed. When the dust settles, I believe that Anaheim will have Bedard to boost WC hockey. Chicago will get the local boy in Fantilli. After that game on.

exactly even after kane/jvr draft which we had the worst record, they gave us jvr like how was that not fixed? even the redwings got the worst record in 2020 and they got 4th overall. the best thing the flyers can do is keep building and developing the culture and hopefully a young difference maker becomes available trade or fa and maybe we will manage to snag him.

everything is luck right now, you cant force something that you have no control over especially when it comes to the lottery, that's why alot of teams arent tanking because they know the draft lottery is fixed, otherwise they would do it not unless you have no youth foundation to build from which chicago, anaheim, columbus, san jose dont have alot of which is why they are at the bottom.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

They do but they also know they are dealing with a GM who is very motivated to move Hayes. And Fletcher doesn't have a track record of shrewd trade skills.

Chuck will not drive a hard bargain. Sadly. Also how motivated is he to move him? I am not so sure I buy it completely. This was his big move. To all of a sudden switch gears is not very Chuck like.

Both

Reminder for all that pumpkin pie is akin to eating out of a Long John Silver's dumpster.

Have to pick one.

How can one not love pumpkin pie. Sweet potato pie also very good. Amish down at booths corner have so much good pies and cakes.

 

[Kelmitchell2]

xGF 47.36%, xGFrel -4.05, 2.38 pp/60, 3yr at $8.25M starting at age 32.

Seattle passed on him in the expansion draft (and on Ghost as well, wanted a 1st rd pick to take Ghost).
There were zero rumors of any team offering any asset for Voracek.

A year later his value was worse:

Aaron Portzline of The Athletic: Columbus Blues GM Jarmo Kekalainen didn’t like that Oliver Bjorkstrand trade and said “it was the best of the no-good options.” Trading two years of Jakub Voracek at $8.25 million may have to include a top prospect and a first.

Stop, Seattle passed on quite a few good players that were being paid well, because they wanted to build through the draft. So Stop acting like they had no value, when in reality if there was anyone to blame its management and the coaching staff for the way the use and throw their players under the bus, the ball washing routine is getting a bit old, your jaws gotta be sore

 

[Beef Invictus]

Chuck will not drive a hard bargain. Sadly. Also how motivated is he to move him? I am not so sure I buy it completely. This was his big move. To all of a sudden switch gears is not very Chuck like.


Have to pick one.

How can one not love pumpkin pie. Sweet potato pie also very good. Amish down at booths corner have so much good pies and cakes.

I have the best culinary taste on this board

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

I have the best culinary taste on this board

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I have the best culinary taste on this board