2022/23 Roster Thread XIV: Season's Beatings

[Starat327]

View attachment 620911

I can already see it(I guess technically I won't, but you know what I mean) coming now:

"This is why he didn't sign Jonny G. He's learned from his mistakes of giving hometown players long deals."

 

[TB87]

Who is ready for “better offensively” season? Got any 2nd rounders we can flip for some goal scorers?

I bet this article is some confirmation bias bullshit. They’re back checking more and playing better defensively! Sure Jan.

 

[FlyerNutter]

^^^ North Korea would be proud.

 

[Adam Warlock]

Hopefully chuck gets fired n rehired over the summer then briere can trade him Risto.

After all, Risto was CFs white whale. He tried to get him in Minny too. He aint gonna let him go just because he changes teams.

 

[ponder719]

Who is ready for “better offensively” season? Got any 2nd rounders we can flip for some goal scorers?

As if the team could even get more offensive.

 

[Danko]

Isn't Larry Brooks, Torts arch nemesis? I dont see why they would buy out Hayes honestly...it's not like they are going to go full rebuild. Its just a matter of Fletcher packaging our future 1st round picks with Hayes for Whoever has the most Unfriendly Cap Contract with the lowest Offensive or Defensive Talent.

 

[Magua]

At 5v5, 29th in CA/60 and 23rd in xGA/60. On the PK, 30th in CA/60 and 28th in xGA/60. Look at that defensive structure improvement. LOOK AT IT.

Oh, yeah, we have the 5th best goalie this season (after a dip) with the 4th worst xGAA. Absolute top tier organization with having no respect for their fanbase.

 

[Striiker]

Which of our many braindead shills wrote that bullshit?

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Which of our many braindead shills wrote that bullshit?

Brian Smith.

 

[Rebels57]

Which of our many braindead shills wrote that bullshit?

I'm going to need Sean Boswell to reply to that Tweet with the numbers Magua posted above. I'm still banned so I can't, but someone needs to.

 

[Magua]

Seeler is also been the best defenseman on the Flyers per Evolving Hockey’s xGAR model, too… by a wide margin…

He has the 9th highest xGAR/60 in the league. They were talking about it on the last few podcasts as well.

I'm not saying those models don't show Seeler is having a good season. I'm saying I think Dom's market value thing feels like a gimmick. So, Seeler has a negative GSVA every season, but 29 games puts his market value at $3.7 mil? And I'm supposed to believe the guy below has a market value of $2.7 mil? I don't see how that's possible unless it's entirely based around a 20-ish game sample.......which is why I think it seems gimmicky. Probably so they can have wildly fluctuating cards through the season for article fodder.

I got a chuckle this summer when JFresh ran a rough NHL comparison tool and every skilled defender's least similar comparable (Girard, Hughes, Dahlin, even Sanheim) was "Nick Seeler." I mean, we watch Seeler -- his skill-set looks fringe as ever, with a background that shows him as fringe (his career numbers are as negative as they are presently positive). He's a big beneficiary of these team adjusted stats as well, having a good 3rd pairing start with most of the defensive group getting slaughtered statistically. That's where I imagine the xGAR, WAR, etc. overstate things.

 

[Danko]

ASF thinks there is a lot of smoke about Fletcher being out as GM but they are trying to decide if he stays on as president of hockey ops or is just kicked to the curb.

 

[renberg]

ASF thinks there is a lot of smoke about Fletcher being out as GM but they are trying to decide if he stays on as president of hockey ops or is just kicked to the curb.

Please

 

[flyerslducks]

ASF thinks there is a lot of smoke about Fletcher being out as GM but they are trying to decide if he stays on as president of hockey ops or is just kicked to the curb.

How can there even be a debate at this point. The people who are debating should also be canned

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I'm not saying those models don't show Seeler is having a good season. I'm saying I think Dom's market value thing feels like a gimmick. So, Seeler has a negative GSVA every season, but 29 games puts his market value at $3.7 mil? And I'm supposed to believe the guy below has a market value of $2.7 mil? I don't see how that's possible unless it's entirely based around a 20-ish game sample.......which is why I think it seems gimmicky. Probably so they can have wildly fluctuating cards through the season for article fodder.

Sanheim is a Defenseman who doesn't play on PP1 or really score at all on it and Points are worth a ton in this scenario. It's not so much a gimmick as it is doing exactly what it says it is and no more. Replacing that production after you remove all context isn't expensive.

 

[Striiker]

I'm going to need Sean Boswell to reply to that Tweet with the numbers Magua posted above. I'm still banned so I can't, but someone needs to.

I texted him and he said he took care of it.

 

[Magua]

Sanheim is a Defenseman who doesn't play on PP1 or really score at all on it and Points are worth a ton in this scenario. It's not so much a gimmick as it is doing exactly what it says it is and no more. Replacing that production after you remove all context isn't expensive.

So, you're saying historically, Sanheim's statistical profile is worth $2.7 mil? His point production is identical to last season, his career really. And Seeler's production both historical and recent, 5 points since that's what Dom weighs most, is worth nearly $4 mil? Valimaki's market value is $5.3 mil? Maata is worth $4 mil? I must be missing something with how he is weighing the data or the samples.

 

[TCTC]

How can there even be a debate at this point. The people who are debating should also be canned

He doesn't even have a history with the franchise like Clarke or Holmgren did. There really is no reason to show gratitude towards him and keep him around.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

So, you're saying historically, Sanheim's statistical profile is worth $2.7 mil? His point production is identical to last season. And Seeler's production, 5 points since that's what Dom weighs most, is worth nearly $4 mil? Valimaki's market value is $5.3 mil? Maata is worth $4 mil? I must be missing something with how he is weighing the data or the samples.

From what I remember of Dom's xG numbers, they've never liked Sanheim as much as other models.

I don't have a sub anymore to check, but I remember a discussion last year where Risto was given most of the xG credit for that pairing starting well via Dom's model. Obviously not ideal! I think this is just a case where one public model disagrees with the others. So add that to fine but not particularly impressive scoring and you get this.

 

[FLYguy3911]

This is the formula (not sure if there were updates):

Player Game Score = (0.75 * G) + (0.7 * A1) + (0.55 * A2) + (0.075 * SOG) + (0.05 * BLK) + (0.15 * PD) – (0.15 * PT) + (0.01 * FOW) – (0.01 * FOL) + (0.05 * CF) – (0.05 * CA) + (0.15 * GF) – (0.15* GA)

It is very much a box score model. It also doesn't adjust for team quality so if you play on a shitty team like the Flyers, you get dinged.

 

[deadhead]

Sanheim's one big weakness (play along the boards in the D-zone) is Risto's one big strength.
So it's not totally crazy that Risto improves Sanheim's defensive metrics.

Though these are SSS values, it's also why I'm skeptic of analytics, it's not that they're useless, it's that there is a substantial amount of noise in these metrics, so "buyer beware."

Now they do reflect Seeler playing much better this season, but he's not THAT much better, from a #7 D-man to a solid 3rd pair is a jump, but not a huge jump.

 

[Magua]

From what I remember of Dom's xG numbers, they've never liked Sanheim as much as other models.

I don't have a sub anymore to check, but I remember a discussion last year where Risto was given most of the xG credit for that pairing starting well via Dom's model. Obviously not ideal! I think this is just a case where one public model disagrees with the others. So add that to fine but not particularly impressive scoring and you get this.

Further to my point, this is Sanheim's graphic before this season:

You're not wrong, and neither is Flyguy, that Dom heavily weighs box score numbers (although the inconsistencies I'm trying to understand). I'm not saying any model is perfect, or that his is worthless. Like most models, the top end and bottom end are easy, and the middle is the puzzle. But this is the part I find article fodder: Sanheim's market value this season was projected as $5.6 mil by Dom. Nothing is holistically out of whack this season, so I can only assume he's getting dinged hard for some specific things contained in this 29 game sample.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Further to my point, this is Sanheim's graphic before this season:

You're not wrong, and neither is Flyguy, that Dom heavily weighs box score numbers (although the inconsistencies I'm trying to understand). I'm not saying any model is perfect, or that his is worthless. Like most models, the top end and bottom end are easy, and the middle is the puzzle. But this is the part I find curious: Sanheim's market value this season was projected as $5.6 mil by Dom. That $2.7 mil number just screams loud small sample; it's the only way I can make sense of it because his numbers really aren't too out of whack holistically.

Ok, that's f***ed. Wild swing for ~25 Games.

 

[Redpath]

ASF thinks there is a lot of smoke about Fletcher being out as GM but they are trying to decide if he stays on as president of hockey ops or is just kicked to the curb.

Theoretically I could understand the optics of wanting to kick Chuck up to President...if he wasn't already President. How can you indict Chuck's duties as GM by firing him but not his duties as President?

 

[deadhead]

You don't "fire him," you promote Briere with an informal understanding that he has full authority as GM, and Chuck is basically a figure head. So publicly it's about Briere, not Chuck, behind the scenes Chuck's ball are in a bottle on the shelf.