flyersnorth
Registered User
- Oct 7, 2019
- 4,695
- 7,163
Out of how many? Your odds of a top 6/top 4 player
#1-5: about 72%
#6-15: about 34%
#16-25: about 23%
#26-30: about 18%
2nd rd: about 10% (pretty flat until around #55)
This is also why trading for 1st rd picks doesn't jump start a rebuild, since most of those picks are in the 20s, you might land 1 top starter and a couple depth guys out of 3-4 1st rd picks.
It sounds like you are making the case that 1st round picks *do* jump start a rebuild. The more you have, the more you are putting odds in your favour that you can find 1 or 2 top starters.
You can't win if you don't have any picks.