2022/23 Roster Thread III: Run It Back!

[SuchySays]

Am I the only one that thinks a big trade is still yet to come?

I'd be surprised if Provorov and Konecny are both Flyers at the end of the summer. I still say one or both are gone, with the latter before the more likely.

Chucky's gonna get massacred in another trade for sure.

This is like in ancient history when a ruler was about to do something stupid, someone underneath him drew up a plan and took the ruler out before they could do it. Who's going to be that guy?

 

[Beef Invictus]

He could if he bribes someone with a bottle of Kens Lite Caesar.

If he brings me a bottle of Ken's Lite Caesar he can steal whatever isn't bolted to the building

 

[Striiker]

I am curious what people believe to be reasonable metrics for the prospects to prove that they deserve a roster spot over more veteran players. For Frost, is it simply points? Points + defensive results? Other? For the prospects looking to crack the roster, what is a reasonable sample size? What factors should be taken into consideration: linemates, TOI, opposition, etc.?

I don't think points should be too heavily weighed when judging Frost or any other prospect because 1) usually they're not being put in a position to score, both when it comes to teammates and usage, and 2) scoring is so fluky in small sample sizes that someone can play well and not score and others can play like crap and score plenty.

For example, Frost was 11th in forward TOI per game last year, so people bitching about him not scoring much aren't being fair. How could he score if he's hardly on the ice? Especially when entire team as a whole couldn't score for shit. Plus, visually he looked really good most of the time. You could see his smarts and skill on display, even if it didn't get rewarded.

And in general it's more about how bad the vets are than anything. With someone like Thompson or Deslauriers, you know they're adding nothing of value to the team. At very best, they're treading water and surviving. If that's the case, I'd rather gamble on a guy who actually has skill and upside and just tolerate whatever ups and downs come with them. At worst, they're equally as bad as the vets. It's not like Frost, Laczynski, Allison, Brink, etc could be worse than someone older, slow, bad at everything, and won't get any better, like Thompson, Deslauriers, MacEwen, etc.

 

[deadhead]

TDA
5x5
xGF/60: 2.57 2.68, 3.25
pp/60: 1.09, 1.74, 1.50
PP
xGF/60: 7.55, 8.12, 8.68

Josi
5x5
xGF/60: 2.71, 2.42, 2.53
pp/60: 1.74, 0.86, 1.86
PP
xGF/60: 7.83, 6.63, 7.70

Makar
5x5
xGF/60: 2.50, 2.86, 2.94
pp/60: 1.82, 1.42, 1.76
PP
xGF/60: 7.02, 10.08, 9.46


TDA is an elite offensive defenseman.
The problem is he's a subpar defensive defenseman.
If Torts can convince him to raise his defense performance to "average," he comes a top ten defenseman.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

This is like in ancient history when a ruler was about to do something stupid, someone underneath him drew up a plan and took the ruler out before they could do it. Who's going to be that guy?

The Flyers are Ancient Rome. Fletcher is Nero.

 

[Beef Invictus]

TDA
5x5
xGF/60: 2.57 2.68, 3.25
pp/60: 1.09, 1.74, 1.50
PP
xGF/60: 7.55, 8.12, 8.68

Josi
5x5
xGF/60: 2.71, 2.42, 2.53
pp/60: 1.74, 0.86, 1.86
PP
xGF/60: 7.83, 6.63, 7.70

Makar
5x5
xGF/60: 2.50, 2.86, 2.94
pp/60: 1.82, 1.42, 1.76
PP
xGF/60: 7.02, 10.08, 9.46


TDA is an elite offensive defenseman.
The problem is he's a subpar defensive defenseman.
If Torts can convince him to raise his defense performance to "average," he comes a top ten defenseman.

"Subpar" is an understatement. He's not below average hoping to become average. He's defensively horrible. "Average" is a massive leap.

Tortorella doesn't have wizard-powers. He can't just use a transmutation spell to turn TDA into Burns...though if he did, Fletcher would promptly trade him for a 3rd liner.

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Am I the only one that thinks a big trade is still yet to come?

I'd be surprised if Provorov and Konecny are both Flyers at the end of the summer. I still say one or both are gone, with the latter before the more likely.

Chucky's gonna get massacred in another trade for sure.

I don’t think it’s coming this off-season. I think they weren’t lying about wanting to see how the team looks under Torts. It’ll look like shit, don’t get me wrong, but I think it’s a genuinely held belief they have.

 

[TheKingPin]

"Aggressive Retool" was a stupid statement.

And I bet Chuck rues the day it was said.

Everything Chuck said in the mid-season presser, where Scott was gung-ho, was way more measured than "aggressive." They weren't on the same page at all. Chuck held the company line, but his words were far more along the lines of "rebuild."

So we all agree, finally. Fletcher is stupid!

Exactly. Good luck being a Chi fan right now.
It’s the Hail Mary approach I derided previously.
Flyers are building a foundation. Not focusing on losing.
They may not be a playoff team this year, but they’re gonna battle & improve.
Replace JVR’s $7m next summer, let the good kids beat out the lesser kids.
Short rebuild.
Chicago could be screwed for a decade. But hey they hit Bedard, good for them. I just don’t think it’s a plan.

Why is it bad being Chicago? Chicago literally just built a dynasty by tanking and drafting well.

 

[landsbergfan]

What is the @?

ginevalentinee...pretty sure theyre all gone now though

 

[BernieParent]

Thanks to dead and Striiker for replying to my earlier question about criteria for earning a roster spot. I want to take a bit to formulate my reply, but will interject a paraphrased quote that Charlie O attributed to Fletcher about competition for the D-corps in his latest article summarizing development camp:

Fletcher said Wednesday that Attard would likely be competing with Cam York for a spot on the bottom pair, and while presumably, York has the leg up on Attard due to many factors — more NHL games, higher draft pedigree, the fact that an opening night third pair of York and Braun is more logical than Nick Seeler and Attard or one of Attard or Braun playing their off side — he’ll certainly be in the mix.

It seems like Fletcher is undermining Tortorella's penchant for a level playing field if Fletcher is indicating that there is likely only one slot for two prospects.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Thanks to dead and Striiker for replying to my earlier question about criteria for earning a roster spot. I want to take a bit to formulate my reply, but will interject a paraphrased quote that Charlie O attributed to Fletcher about competition for the D-corps in his latest article summarizing development camp:



It seems like Fletcher is undermining Tortorella's penchant for a level playing field if Fletcher is indicating that there is likely only one slot for two prospects.

That's how Fletcher has always worked here. There's a hard limit on young guys playing and once the role-based quota is met it doesn't matter what they do, they're not playing.

 

[deadhead]

Thanks to dead and Striiker for replying to my earlier question about criteria for earning a roster spot. I want to take a bit to formulate my reply, but will interject a paraphrased quote that Charlie O attributed to Fletcher about competition for the D-corps in his latest article summarizing development camp:



It seems like Fletcher is undermining Tortorella's penchant for a level playing field if Fletcher is indicating that there is likely only one slot for two prospects.

It doesn't matter what Fletcher says, once TC starts, Torts will decide who plays.
Nor do I see any reason why Fletcher would challenge Torts' decisions, his future depends on Torts turning things around.

When Torts was hired, some critics posted the comments by Dubinsky blasting Torts.
What they forget to add is the reason Dubinsky was angry, because he was demoted from the top six in favor of Weenberg (23), Jenner (24) and Dubois (19). Even though his skills were declining, he thought he "earned" a spot on a scoring line.
That's the sort of entitlement attitude that I expect Torts to puncture.

Attard may well start in LHV while Torts evaluates his top 6 D-men. Same with Zamula.
Foerster, Desnoyers, Wisdom, and Lyckesell will almost certainly start in LHV (3 20 year olds and a SHL player adjusting to NA ice), but I'll bet some won't finish the season there. Brink will be in LHV when he recovers, but for how long?

If there's a major trade, I'd bet on December, similar to Johansen for Seth Jones, where Torts goes to Fletcher and says so and so isn't going to work out and I want to play someone else, so get what you can for him.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Tortorella is not the GM and has never acted as one. He is not a power-hungry prima donna. If Fletcher gives him old slop to choose from, he will pick from that pool. He can't order Fletcher to call guys up, and if I'm remembering he specifically said it's Fletcher's job to assess that and make calls.

 

[TCTC]

TDA
5x5
xGF/60: 2.57 2.68, 3.25
pp/60: 1.09, 1.74, 1.50
PP
xGF/60: 7.55, 8.12, 8.68

Josi
5x5
xGF/60: 2.71, 2.42, 2.53
pp/60: 1.74, 0.86, 1.86
PP
xGF/60: 7.83, 6.63, 7.70

Makar
5x5
xGF/60: 2.50, 2.86, 2.94
pp/60: 1.82, 1.42, 1.76
PP
xGF/60: 7.02, 10.08, 9.46


TDA is an elite offensive defenseman.
The problem is he's a subpar defensive defenseman.
If Torts can convince him to raise his defense performance to "average," he comes a top ten defenseman.

Hamilton also had great numbers when he played with Slavin. And look at him now.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Direct comparison across teams devoid of context never works.

 

[Starat327]

Have you ever been to the north east corner of the map of the world, @Beef Invictus ?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I am curious what people believe to be reasonable metrics for the prospects to prove that they deserve a roster spot over more veteran players. For Frost, is it simply points? Points + defensive results? Other? For the prospects looking to crack the roster, what is a reasonable sample size? What factors should be taken into consideration: linemates, TOI, opposition, etc.?

I need to see their strengths look like strengths against NHL competition. Is a playmaker trying to make passes to dangerous areas? Is a sniper archetype getting his shot off? Is a forechecker depth Forward getting after people as F1?

2 Game auditions don't do anyone any good unless players are completely overmatched. It's natural for there to be an adjustment period. I wouldn't even begin to make determinations on overall quality of play before 10-20 Games for a prospect I believe can be a guy you actively want on your NHL team.

When they brought Hagg back for the first Fletcher/Vigneault year, I believe my opinion on him was that I had no faith in him ever being an NHL player, but if they did and he didn't play in the first ~20 Games, it was a clear mistake.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Paul Holmgren (I’m trying direct quotes as much as possible) - from Nasty Knuckles pod.

“Bringing in John at this time is the best thing the Flyers could have done. He’s a fantastic motivator. I think our city, our fans, and our players will love him. It’s a step on the right direction to make the Flyers relevant again. The John Tortorella era couldn’t come fast enough for me”

I’m one for giving John a chance. I’ll do that, but even though I get a genuine vibe from Holmgren that he cares about the success of this team - I do wonder if a lot of these “external voices”, are influencing this team down a poor road.

The vibe I got, was it’s time for this team to become the Flyers again. The word rebuild is not in this organizations vocabulary.

 

[BernieParent]

Thanks to dead and Striiker for replying to my earlier question about criteria for earning a roster spot. I want to take a bit to formulate my reply, but will interject a paraphrased quote that Charlie O attributed to Fletcher about competition for the D-corps in his latest article summarizing development camp:

Fletcher said Wednesday that Attard would likely be competing with Cam York for a spot on the bottom pair, and while presumably, York has the leg up on Attard due to many factors — more NHL games, higher draft pedigree, the fact that an opening night third pair of York and Braun is more logical than Nick Seeler and Attard or one of Attard or Braun playing their off side — he’ll certainly be in the mix.

It seems like Fletcher is undermining Tortorella's penchant for a level playing field if Fletcher is indicating that there is likely only one slot for two prospects.

It doesn't matter what Fletcher says, once TC starts, Torts will decide who plays.
Nor do I see any reason why Fletcher would challenge Torts' decisions, his future depends on Torts turning things around.

When Torts was hired, some critics posted the comments by Dubinsky blasting Torts.
What they forget to add is the reason Dubinsky was angry, because he was demoted from the top six in favor of Weenberg (23), Jenner (24) and Dubois (19). Even though his skills were declining, he thought he "earned" a spot on a scoring line.
That's the sort of entitlement attitude that I expect Torts to puncture.

Attard may well start in LHV while Torts evaluates his top 6 D-men. Same with Zamula.
Foerster, Desnoyers, Wisdom, and Lyckesell will almost certainly start in LHV (3 20 year olds and a SHL player adjusting to NA ice), but I'll bet some won't finish the season there. Brink will be in LHV when he recovers, but for how long?

If there's a major trade, I'd bet on December, similar to Johansen for Seth Jones, where Torts goes to Fletcher and says so and so isn't going to work out and I want to play someone else, so get what you can for him.

Thanks for your reply, dead. But the bolded supports my point; what if Attard is one of the top 6 defensemen coming out of TC by outplaying Braun? I'll be pleasantly surprised if Tortorella shakes things up and goes countercultural on vets over prospects but all signs point to the same ol' (literally) strategy of roster-building from the guys who hired Torts.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Paul Holmgren (I’m trying direct quotes as much as possible) - from Nasty Knuckles pod.

“Bringing in John at this time is the best thing the Flyers could have done. He’s a fantastic motivator. I think our city, our fans, and our players will love him. It’s a step on the right direction to make the Flyers relevant again. The John Tortorella era couldn’t come fast enough for me”

I’m one for giving John a chance. I’ll do that, but even though I get a genuine vibe from Holmgren that he cares about the success of this team - I do wonder if a lot of these “external voices”, are influencing this team down a poor road.

The vibe I got, was it’s time for this team to become the Flyers again. The word rebuild is not in this organizations vocabulary.

They're truly convinced that Tortorella is a magic bullet. They're going to be baffled. Then they're going to be stupid and angry.

 

[FlyerNutter]

I am curious what people believe to be reasonable metrics for the prospects to prove that they deserve a roster spot over more veteran players. For Frost, is it simply points? Points + defensive results? Other? For the prospects looking to crack the roster, what is a reasonable sample size? What factors should be taken into consideration: linemates, TOI, opposition, etc.?

I’ll take a crack, although I’m going to go a little more simplistic in my take. I’m sure off on a tangent at some point.

The biggest thing I want to see this season, or any season for that matter is young kids initiate positive effects on play. To not be passengers - in the most basic of terms.

Mistakes are irrelevant to me in the grand scheme, I think mistakes are crucial to learn the game. What is crucial is that we see players like Frost, Tippet, York, Farabee, etc find ways to consistently create positive effects. When a youngster stops doing that, that’s when I have issues.

Whether it is daring to leave a position to make a play, driving into the zone instead of just dumping it in, using ones body to punish the opposition if they have a frame to do so. I want to see kids showing off what makes them… them.

It comes down to having the green light, and furthermore ability as a player to try to create. It’s what I want to see from the kids. Do that, and we see development.

A coach like St Louis intrigues me, because I feel he may be less about systems, and more about what I mention above.

 

[BernieParent]

Depends on the player.

Frost has to be adequate on defense, but anchoring an "energy line" a holy terror on the forecheck, not so much hitting people but setting up linemates. Cates and Tippett need to get to the puck, win puck battles and feed Frost and the D-men. All three need to back check consistently.

Allison just has to play the way he did two years ago, using his size, speed and shot to makes plays at both ends of the ice.

Laczynski has to show he can skate well enough to get back on defense and to enable him to use his IQ and offensive skills.

Attard has to show he can play with "controlled aggression" on offense and use his size and athleticism to be effective in his D-zone.

Zamula has to show he can compensate for a lack of bulk in the D-zone with positioning, anticipation and stick work.

I don't think points should be too heavily weighed when judging Frost or any other prospect because 1) usually they're not being put in a position to score, both when it comes to teammates and usage, and 2) scoring is so fluky in small sample sizes that someone can play well and not score and others can play like crap and score plenty.

For example, Frost was 11th in forward TOI per game last year, so people bitching about him not scoring much aren't being fair. How could he score if he's hardly on the ice? Especially when entire team as a whole couldn't score for shit. Plus, visually he looked really good most of the time. You could see his smarts and skill on display, even if it didn't get rewarded.

And in general it's more about how bad the vets are than anything. With someone like Thompson or Deslauriers, you know they're adding nothing of value to the team. At very best, they're treading water and surviving. If that's the case, I'd rather gamble on a guy who actually has skill and upside and just tolerate whatever ups and downs come with them. At worst, they're equally as bad as the vets. It's not like Frost, Laczynski, Allison, Brink, etc could be worse than someone older, slow, bad at everything, and won't get any better, like Thompson, Deslauriers, MacEwen, etc.

I need to see their strengths look like strengths against NHL competition. Is a playmaker trying to make passes to dangerous areas? Is a sniper archetype getting his shot off? Is a forechecker depth Forward getting after people as F1?

2 Game auditions don't do anyone any good unless players are completely overmatched. It's natural for there to be an adjustment period. I wouldn't even begin to make determinations on overall quality of play before 10-20 Games for a prospect I believe can be a guy you actively want on your NHL team.

When they brought Hagg back for the first Fletcher/Vigneault year, I believe my opinion on him was that I had no faith in him ever being an NHL player, but if they did and he didn't play in the first ~20 Games, it was a clear mistake.

I’ll take a crack, although I’m going to go a little more simplistic in my take. I’m sure off on a tangent at some point.

The biggest thing I want to see this season, or any season for that matter is young kids initiate positive effects on play. To not be passengers - in the most basic of terms.

Mistakes are irrelevant to me in the grand scheme, I think mistakes are crucial to learn the game. What is crucial is that we see players like Frost, Tippet, York, Farabee, etc find ways to consistently create positive effects. When a youngster stops doing that, that’s when I have issues.

Whether it is daring to leave a position to make a play, driving into the zone instead of just dumping it in, using ones body to punish the opposition if they have a frame to do so. I want to see kids showing off what makes them… them.

It comes down to having the green light, and furthermore ability as a player to try to create. It’s what I want to see from the kids. Do that, and we see development.

A coach like St Louis intrigues me, because I feel he may be less about systems, and more about what I mention above.

Thanks for your replies. I like the variety of perspectives but also some similarities in the skills that the prospects would need to display. However, these remain subjective analyses, whether well-formulated and logical or not. And herein lies the problem: the eye test is inherently biased, composed of "What do I expect from this player?" and "Is this player meeting my expectations?" Bias can, of course, lead to good decisions when you have a bias for logic. But it can be exploited when the viewer wants to arrive at a preconceived outcome.

We saw as much with Frost, who was criticized for not being defensively responsible. When he showed improvement last TC, he was criticized for not flashing enough offence. I know I chose a lightning rod-example but this is the clearest recent example of shifting expectations to a player's detriment.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

How much did Chuck Fletcher pay Jordan to write this article?

 

[deadhead]

Hamilton also had great numbers when he played with Slavin. And look at him now.

TDA's first two years are with NY.
Notice how stable his xGF/60 is, that tends to vary less and be less dependent on how well your teammates finish.

 

[Curufinwe]

Meltzer was comparing ND to Maroon today. I sure hope Deslauriers can magically turn into a 25 point player at age 31 after mustering up 13 last season.

The only good thing about the Deslauriers contract is that it seems to have shut up the annoying contingent of authentic idiots on twitter who spent all of last season banging on about how much MacEwen meant to the (29th placed) Flyers. It’s like Fletcher read their crap and said hey, if you like the Zack attack so much, how about this guy who is MacEwen on steroids at twice the price.