TruePowerSlave
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- Jun 27, 2015
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Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: The Search for a 2C
- Thread starter SoundwaveIsCharisma
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I think I can. Avs are too talented to miss. The injuries won't keep piling up and at some point the tide will turn. When the the competition for the last spots is LA, Vancouver, St Louis and Nashville... I'm not at all worried about the playoffs. I am and have been worried about the quality of the team in the playoffs though.
Yeah Bergeron missed sometime for a couple years (really one)... he also had 3 full seasons where he was pretty healthy in the NHL showing he could take the NHL grind. Crosby is certainly injury prone, he's also a generational talent when he's on the ice. Frankly his injuries are likely the only thing keeping him from being a top 10 player all time. Byram isn't generational... he also hasn't shown any ability to stay healthy in the NHL. Along side that, for any of those examples... there are more derailed by injuries. I'm not saying write him off, I'm saying you can't count on him being a building block of a core in 2025+ when he's shown zero ability to stay healthy.
Chiarelli
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- Jan 27, 2019
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We have 9 games in the next 17 days with more or less the current lineup + nuke possibly (assuming no more injuries occur). We just lost to Philly and barely squeaked out a win against buffalo with a 5 point effort from MacKinnon - who is no longer healthy.
Currently in the last wild card spot tied in points with Calgary (2 games in hand), 1 point up on Nashville (same number of games), and 2 points on Vancouver (3 games in hand). These teams have all underperformed or had poor starts to date and are playing better hockey now.
Very good chance we’re sitting in 11th spot by Christmas. Just being a realist here.
Friedman has a stat about the playoff cutoff by Christmas and it’s not good for teams on the outside.
Currently in the last wild card spot tied in points with Calgary (2 games in hand), 1 point up on Nashville (same number of games), and 2 points on Vancouver (3 games in hand). These teams have all underperformed or had poor starts to date and are playing better hockey now.
Very good chance we’re sitting in 11th spot by Christmas. Just being a realist here.
Friedman has a stat about the playoff cutoff by Christmas and it’s not good for teams on the outside.
I don't even care about #2 line center anymore. We got way bigger problems.
In a sense, problem solved.
In a sense, problem solved.
Cousin Eddie
You Serious Clark?
- Nov 3, 2006
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Chiarelli
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- Jan 27, 2019
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My mistake it’s American thanksgiving and these stats are a bit old. I would assume Christmas is even less forgiving for those on the outside.
With what assets and what cap space ?
Say the Avs go .500 over those 9 games (IMO reasonable). They'd be at 36 points in 32 games or a .562 point percentage... odds are that will still be 7ht or 8th best in the West at that time. That also tends to be the number that holds right around the final playoff spot. Can be in during some years, can be out in others. Given that I expect the Avs are more of a .620 team, if they finished at that pace (or even .600), they'd very easily be in.
There are plenty of those types of cutoff stats... and plenty of exceptions (just look at the Blues a few years ago). The Avs have the most gamebreaking talent in the West. They lack depth, especially at some key positions... but gamebreakers tend to mean you can exceed an overall roster quality, especially in short bursts. The Avs will have to play differently and win ugly, but they are capable of that.
This situation would be a lot better if the Avs had a legit 2C at the start of the season. Unlikely (possible but unlikely) they'd also be injured.
Avatar bet? If we pick above #4, I have serious doubts about a pick being worth much of anything with our scouting chops
Chiarelli
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- Jan 27, 2019
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I wouldn’t be so sure on your numbers here. The schedule is weak and 7 of 9 are at home (these could also work against us if we don’t win them) I’ll give you that and could be our one saving grace. However, we will be getting everyone’s best game being the defending cup champs that everyone will want to see fail this year. Also, this is what we are working with:
5 nhl forwards and 3 nhl d + EJ
What’s the bet ?
Cousin Eddie
You Serious Clark?
- Nov 3, 2006
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Yeah the assets part is definitely a problem.
The cap space thing isn’t as a big a deal as many people think. Gabe’s surgery for example last year was planned. They knew Christmas time that he had to have surgery and they ended up planning it exactly for him to finish out the season if needed. Turns out they didn’t need that cap space anyway but they had it as a fallback plan.
Not saying it’s as simple as forcing somebody to have surgery lol, but guys like EJ have enough going on with their bodies to have no issue coming up with some type of LTIR plan if needed in the spring.
.500 hockey is just not that difficult and a team with Makar and Rantanen should be able to produce that. Even if they fall short and only get 7 points over the next 9 games... .600 hockey for the rest of the season still very easily gets into the playoffs. I have little doubt the Avs can roll .600 hockey.
I don't think people realize how low of bar .500 hockey is either. Since the 04-05 lockout, the Avs have finished below .500 just 4 times... each of those were seasons the Avs were bottom 5. .500 hockey is pretty bad hockey in the NHL, the Avs should be able to achieve that.
I think going .500 with this roster over any stretch is extremely optimistic tbh...
That being said... So long as we get a break in the injuries eventually and are mostly healthy by say Mid-January onward, this team will probably go on a run for ~20 games where they're like 18-2 or something and pull themselves comfortably back into a playoff spot.
Even without a legit 2C I think Landy/Mack/Mikko/Nuke/Lehky are strong enough to dominate most teams and then being able to slot Newhook, ERod, JTC, LOC, etc down the lineup in spots better suited for them will be a huge plus.
Basically I could see them going like 2-5-2 in those next 9 games. But as long as thr injuries don't continue piling up at a ridiculous rate and guys start ti come back, I think by January they go on a huge run.
The good news despite the injuries is that, none of them seem to be season ending or 3-4 month types of injuries. Knock on wood that Mack doesn't change that but so far nobody is projected to be out beyond January(Landy)
That being said... So long as we get a break in the injuries eventually and are mostly healthy by say Mid-January onward, this team will probably go on a run for ~20 games where they're like 18-2 or something and pull themselves comfortably back into a playoff spot.
Even without a legit 2C I think Landy/Mack/Mikko/Nuke/Lehky are strong enough to dominate most teams and then being able to slot Newhook, ERod, JTC, LOC, etc down the lineup in spots better suited for them will be a huge plus.
Basically I could see them going like 2-5-2 in those next 9 games. But as long as thr injuries don't continue piling up at a ridiculous rate and guys start ti come back, I think by January they go on a huge run.
The good news despite the injuries is that, none of them seem to be season ending or 3-4 month types of injuries. Knock on wood that Mack doesn't change that but so far nobody is projected to be out beyond January(Landy)
I guess it'd have to be conditional on whether we even keep our 1st round pick, then we'd have to agree on a timeline where that pick has to become > Jost level?
- Jan 18, 2016
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You know it’s bad when Hench is one of the most positive guys posting 
Chiarelli
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Seems very vague. What’s better than jost he’s played over 400 nhl games between regular season and playoffs and I would consider him a 4th liner. I think the Avs easily get a 400 games and a 4th liner or better if they pick in the first round this year. Deal.
I’m usually positive! The injuries are concerning and the amount they’re playing the top pairing. That doesn’t even get into if a georgiev regression occurs which looks to be happening.You know it’s bad when Hench is one of the most positive guys posting
TheForsbergShow
Registered User
After reading how Karlsson carried those sens teams and still produced, time to see what Makar can do with like 4 nhlers.
Right, but what's the point of drafting a 4th line player who doesn't even want to be here when we can trade that for someone who will make an impact right now in the cup window? That's what I'm saying.
But if you want to settle the bet in 5 years I'll mark it on my calendar
Mighty Makar
I hate this fu*ken team
- May 24, 2016
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Ararana
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Gumballhead
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Yeah… but not as cheap as many seem to think. 1st + prospect like most rentals
dahrougem2
Registered User
I'm not convinced Vancouver is going to trade Horvat even with him being a pending UFA. That organization seems like they very much want to compete for a playoff spot this season and will use Horvat as their own rental.
It's a stupid mentality for where their team is at, especially with Demko out for 6 weeks but that organization doesn't look like they are doing things that make sense anyways.
It's a stupid mentality for where their team is at, especially with Demko out for 6 weeks but that organization doesn't look like they are doing things that make sense anyways.
I will be a monkey's uncle if Jonathan Toews returns a 1st + prospect at this TDL. Guy is pacing 48 points and his defensive play has fallen off a cliff.
Go look at all the guys returning that same level. You’ll find guys worse than Toews
- Apr 25, 2006
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Even at 50%, how do we make it work under the cap? Injured players will come back at some point.
Ararana
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Vancouver holding onto Horvat and losing him in the summer would be hilarious. I hope they do it.
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