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Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: The Search for a 2C

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dahrougem2 said:
I'm not convined O'Reilly could play on this team as presently constructed given the speed and pace needed. Kadri could handle it because he's a good, fast skater.

Personally I'd rather Toews over O'Reilly and I think Toews is done.

Horvat is the real gem. Come on, Vancouver. You know you want Newhook + OO + 1st for an extended Bo. Camaaaaaaaaan.


I'm telling you this now so you are not let down:

That 4th line isn't playing more than 4 minutes.
Click to expand...

Oh I know, but when you actually see the players you want to see up you can hope they get some utilization. At the very least I’m glad to see Kaut get some real minutes.
 
I was hoping with the short off-season and some lingering injuries and hangovers, that the Avs would be able to ease into the season. Especially considering the extremely light playing schedule in October. But it appears the Avs are going to be battle tested in early November with all the injuries mounting. What's the over/under on man games lost this season anyway?
 
dahrougem2 said:
I'm not convined O'Reilly could play on this team as presently constructed given the speed and pace needed. Kadri could handle it because he's a good, fast skater.

Personally I'd rather Toews over O'Reilly and I think Toews is done.

Horvat is the real gem. Come on, Vancouver. You know you want Newhook + OO + 1st for an extended Bo. Camaaaaaaaaan.


I'm telling you this now so you are not let down:

That 4th line isn't playing more than 4 minutes.
Click to expand...
Personally, I don't think there is much difference in skating between Kadri and ROR and even if there was, RoR makes up for it with his smarts/strong positional play.

By the way, the Avs would never offer the equivalence of 3 first round picks and not very many teams have in the past 20 years either... for anyone.

Newhook - former 1st round pick 33 point rookie season
Olausson - late 1st rounder but talented and good upside
2023 1st round - late pick but in a strong draft class

When you look at what the Sharks gave up for Thornton and Vegas for Eichel, this is Bo Horvat we're talking about. I don't think anyone would consider him a 1st line Center like the other 2 guys.

The actual retail price on a player like Horvat would be something like :

Newhook, 2nd round pick + another prospect that didn't develop as projected (Ranta, Bowers or Kaut)

Or

1st round pick 2023, Olausson + another prospect that didn't develop as projected (Ranta, Bowers or Kaut)

...but I can't imagine it would be more than that.

I know we love throw around players and picks like they're candy but there is a lot more to the decision to actually make these moves than we care to acknowledge.
 
Bender said:
Personally, I don't think there is much difference in skating between Kadri and ROR and even if there was, RoR makes up for it with his smarts/strong positional play.

By the way, the Avs would never offer the equivalence of 3 first round picks and not very many teams have in the past 20 years either... for anyone.

Newhook - former 1st round pick 33 point rookie season
Olausson - late 1st rounder but talented and good upside
2023 1st round - late pick but in a strong draft class

When you look at what the Sharks gave up for Thornton and Vegas for Eichel, this is Bo Horvat we're talking about. I don't think anyone would consider him a 1st line Center like the other 2 guys.

The actual retail price on a player like Horvat would be something like :

Newhook, 2nd round pick + another prospect that didn't develop as projected (Ranta, Bowers or Kaut)

Or

1st round pick 2023, Olausson + another prospect that didn't develop as projected (Ranta, Bowers or Kaut)

...but I can't imagine it would be more than that.

I know we love throw around players and picks like they're candy but there is a lot more to the decision to actually make these moves than we care to acknowledge.
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I don’t think you’ve watched ROR this year then. The difference in skating is pretty massive.
 
Bender said:
Personally, I don't think there is much difference in skating between Kadri and ROR and even if there was, RoR makes up for it with his smarts/strong positional play.

By the way, the Avs would never offer the equivalence of 3 first round picks and not very many teams have in the past 20 years either... for anyone.

Newhook - former 1st round pick 33 point rookie season
Olausson - late 1st rounder but talented and good upside
2023 1st round - late pick but in a strong draft class

When you look at what the Sharks gave up for Thornton and Vegas for Eichel, this is Bo Horvat we're talking about. I don't think anyone would consider him a 1st line Center like the other 2 guys.

The actual retail price on a player like Horvat would be something like :

Newhook, 2nd round pick + another prospect that didn't develop as projected (Ranta, Bowers or Kaut)

Or

1st round pick 2023, Olausson + another prospect that didn't develop as projected (Ranta, Bowers or Kaut)

...but I can't imagine it would be more than that.

I know we love throw around players and picks like they're candy but there is a lot more to the decision to actually make these moves than we care to acknowledge.
Click to expand...
I think you're underselling the Eichel deal by a pretty decent amount.

That was Tuch + Krebs + 2022 1st + 2023 2nd. Tuch is a legit middle 6 power forward and that has a lot of value today. That is more akin to Lehk + Newhook + 1st + 2nd than it is Newhook + OO + 1st.

Not all of these will be centers or will be exactly equivalent deals, but midseason deals:

Copp + 6th for Barron (B/B+ level prospect) + 1st + 2nd + 5th

Giroux + 2 randos + 5th for Tippett (former high 1st round pick) + 1st (couple years out) + 3rd

Toffoli for scrub + B level prospect + 1st + 4th + 5th

Prior to seasons you have:

Dvorak for 1st + 2nd

Fiala for B/B+ level prospect + 1st

Reinhart for 1st + top end goalie prospect

Cat for Top 10 pick + top 40 pick + 3rd


Different teams will value younger players (ie not fully established players) differently. I'd personally put Newhook's value about as a B+/A- sort of prospect, but not all teams will have him at that level (some might be higher, some might be lower). The Avs' first will have the expectation of being 29-32 so lower in value than many of those 1sts. Then you have the excess picks on those. In some cases OO would be worth more... some probably less. The issue in using OO as a trade piece is that he was disappointing for a +1 last year, has yet to set the world on fire this year, and he's a very toolsy/raw sort of prospect... the latter meaning, he has to have value to the team acquiring him. There will be teams that have him pretty far down their list (and would have others in the Avs system ahead of him), and some teams where he might be the top guy from the Avs. So it kinda depends on the value the Blues/Vancouver/Chicago places on him to whether he's worth more like a 1st or more like a 2nd.

To me, when you look back at all the deals for good proven top 6 forwards, especially those that can play center... you pretty much have Newhook + 1st as the baseline, even for a pure rental. In a case where a rental may show some signs of struggling, you might swing a OO + 1st deal. You want a guy like Horvat or Larkin... I think you'll need more than Newhook + OO + 1st. Just look at Copp... a guy a few levels down got a deal not too far off that.
 
Perratrooper said:
The Avs are finally forced to see what they have with Bowers, Kaut and Ranta. This is a huge opportunity for all three and hopefully all three can prove to be viable depth options or in an ideal world NHL caliber players. I personally would have liked to see Ranta to get a shot with JTC and LOC to allow for Cogs to work with Bowers, but given all the injuries we have beggars can’t be choosers. Just glad we’re seeing some young guys get a shot over players like Megna.

For those who haven’t seen, here are our projected lines:
Click to expand...

Ya I can't believe we went with ranta and Bowers instead of bhidh or Megna. It's awesome.
 
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JabroniDangles said:
As someone who hasn't watched the Blues this year, what has the difference in his skating been? Is it just a decrease in straight line footspeed?
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I’m not a huge expert on skating, but I’d assume so. He looks soooo slow out there, which is saying something because he’s always been slow. But his thinking of the game never made him look slow. I think age is taking over a bit and his mind can’t overcome his skating anymore.
 
JabroniDangles said:
As someone who hasn't watched the Blues this year, what has the difference in his skating been? Is it just a decrease in straight line footspeed?
Click to expand...
He went from having some burst in his stride (never was a burner, but first couple steps was fine), to basically zero. So where he used be able to jump into lanes or get to an open spot... he no longer can be there. So he is missing out on plays in space that he'd normally make. Add to that, he's lost some edgework somehow. Getting overpowered and pushed around a lot more than he used to. In tight and up close to the net, he's easier to battle. Edges are what are really important there and pure guess, he might have lost some flexibility there. I don't recall any major injuries, so no idea where that came from.

IMO ROR will have to re-invent his game a bit next year. He's gotten away with being a thicker player and using good edges to win battles. Never been physical with his size, but strong on his skates. With him losing burst, he needs to get that back in some way. Best way is to trim off 10lbs and refine his edges.
 
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henchman24 said:
He went from having some burst in his stride (never was a burner, but first couple steps was fine), to basically zero. So where he used be able to jump into lanes or get to an open spot... he no longer can be there. So he is missing out on plays in space that he'd normally make. Add to that, he's lost some edgework somehow. Getting overpowered and pushed around a lot more than he used to. In tight and up close to the net, he's easier to battle. Edges are what are really important there and pure guess, he might have lost some flexibility there. I don't recall any major injuries, so no idea where that came from.

IMO ROR will have to re-invent his game a bit next year. He's gotten away with being a thicker player and using good edges to win battles. Never been physical with his size, but strong on his skates. With him losing burst, he needs to get that back in some way. Best way is to trim off 10lbs and refine his edges.
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But what about all the yoga?

On a serious note, I don't really get how someone can just suddenly lose their edgework ability, especially someone like O'Reilly who is notorious for going the extra mile for his body. That almost sounds like a hip or back issue affecting his skating, like Stone last year.
 
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JabroniDangles said:
But what about all the yoga?

On a serious note, I don't really get how someone can just suddenly lose their edgework ability, especially someone like O'Reilly who is notorious for going the extra mile for his body. That almost sounds like a hip or back issue affecting his skating, like Stone last year.
Click to expand...
I've seen foot injuries or ligament issues cause a lot of edge work problems. Usually one of the bigger things I see, but really any core or leg issue could cause some level of issue. I don't recall ROR having any of those issues, at least to the extent where he's been out. That said, nearly every NHLer has back issues.
 
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Bill Peckerskull said:


Probably a bad time to waive a halfway decent goalie with NJ, Toronto, and Seattle down starters.
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They don't really need him, Hill is a perfectly good backup making less money and is younger.

Bruh-swah carries a $2.35 million cap hit. That's not nothing. He very well could be claimed but that's not chump change for a #2 goalie.
 
henchman24 said:
I think you're underselling the Eichel deal by a pretty decent amount.

That was Tuch + Krebs + 2022 1st + 2023 2nd. Tuch is a legit middle 6 power forward and that has a lot of value today. That is more akin to Lehk + Newhook + 1st + 2nd than it is Newhook + OO + 1st.

Not all of these will be centers or will be exactly equivalent deals, but midseason deals:

Copp + 6th for Barron (B/B+ level prospect) + 1st + 2nd + 5th

Giroux + 2 randos + 5th for Tippett (former high 1st round pick) + 1st (couple years out) + 3rd

Toffoli for scrub + B level prospect + 1st + 4th + 5th

Prior to seasons you have:

Dvorak for 1st + 2nd

Fiala for B/B+ level prospect + 1st

Reinhart for 1st + top end goalie prospect

Cat for Top 10 pick + top 40 pick + 3rd


Different teams will value younger players (ie not fully established players) differently. I'd personally put Newhook's value about as a B+/A- sort of prospect, but not all teams will have him at that level (some might be higher, some might be lower). The Avs' first will have the expectation of being 29-32 so lower in value than many of those 1sts. Then you have the excess picks on those. In some cases OO would be worth more... some probably less. The issue in using OO as a trade piece is that he was disappointing for a +1 last year, has yet to set the world on fire this year, and he's a very toolsy/raw sort of prospect... the latter meaning, he has to have value to the team acquiring him. There will be teams that have him pretty far down their list (and would have others in the Avs system ahead of him), and some teams where he might be the top guy from the Avs. So it kinda depends on the value the Blues/Vancouver/Chicago places on him to whether he's worth more like a 1st or more like a 2nd.

To me, when you look back at all the deals for good proven top 6 forwards, especially those that can play center... you pretty much have Newhook + 1st as the baseline, even for a pure rental. In a case where a rental may show some signs of struggling, you might swing a OO + 1st deal. You want a guy like Horvat or Larkin... I think you'll need more than Newhook + OO + 1st. Just look at Copp... a guy a few levels down got a deal not too far off that.
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I was trying to highlight the difference between what would theoretically be needed to acquire not only a 1st line Center but a star player on a $10M contract (with many years left on his existing deal) in comparison to what it should take to acquire clearly a 2nd line center who is going to be a UFA at the end of the season. The package would and should not be close.

As you said :

Tuch - established middle-6 forward with good value
Krebs - a young player not unlike Newhook in terms of value
1st round pick (projected to be late at the time of the trade)
2nd round pick 2023 *

*Vegas received a 3rd round pick in 2023 -> so it's actually more of a moving up to the 2nd round sort of situation there.

So for me, when you're talking about Newhook, Oskar Olausson and a 1st in 2023** that is a massive haul for a player like Horvat when you compare the two deals. Of course Tuch is worth much more than a prospect like Olausson but we're also not talking about the same quality of player between Eichel and Horvat.

The way I view it is this way :

Newhook -> 1st round draft pedigree -> already proven he can play in the NHL - value=1st round pick
Olausson -> 1st round draft pedigree -> has been up and down since his draft year - basically he's TBD [a lot would depend on how they viewed him his draft year - value is probably still late 1st round pick
**1st round pick 2023 - even late, it's still great value as has been reported several times that teams want to hang on to their first in this draft class as it's *supposed* to be very strong.

In the end, there just haven't been a lot of deals where that kind of package - in terms of value - have ever been traded for an impending UFA, 2nd line center.
 
Pokecheque said:
They don't really need him, Hill is a perfectly good backup making less money and is younger.

Bruh-swah carries a $2.35 million cap hit. That's not nothing. He very well could be claimed but that's not chump change for a #2 goalie.
Click to expand...
Leafs currently have 5.5M in cap space (Murray on LTIR). They can claim him and then waive him again once healthy.

I'd be very surprised if they don't get him (assuming he doesn't get claimed earlier).
 
Bender said:
Personally, I don't think there is much difference in skating between Kadri and ROR and even if there was, RoR makes up for it with his smarts/strong positional play.

By the way, the Avs would never offer the equivalence of 3 first round picks and not very many teams have in the past 20 years either... for anyone.

Newhook - former 1st round pick 33 point rookie season
Olausson - late 1st rounder but talented and good upside
2023 1st round - late pick but in a strong draft class

When you look at what the Sharks gave up for Thornton and Vegas for Eichel, this is Bo Horvat we're talking about. I don't think anyone would consider him a 1st line Center like the other 2 guys.

The actual retail price on a player like Horvat would be something like :

Newhook, 2nd round pick + another prospect that didn't develop as projected (Ranta, Bowers or Kaut)

Or

1st round pick 2023, Olausson + another prospect that didn't develop as projected (Ranta, Bowers or Kaut)

...but I can't imagine it would be more than that.

I know we love throw around players and picks like they're candy but there is a lot more to the decision to actually make these moves than we care to acknowledge.
Click to expand...
I think there is a tremendous difference in skating between Kadri and O'Reilly. Kadri can still burn guys coming down the wing. O'Reilly never had that ability and his skating has only gotten worse over the years.

As for the proposal, I'm all for giving up less. I just don't see a scenario where the Canucks accept anything less than a king's ransom for their captain who is currently pacing 94 points (including f***ing 70 goals lol).

If it could be an all futures trade and we keep Newhook, perfect. If it could be a Newhook + OO deal and we keep the 2023 1st, perfect. But I think it's going to cost a pretty penny to acquire IMO the best player to hit the market this season if Vancouver does decide to sell.
 
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Bender said:
I was trying to highlight the difference between what would theoretically be needed to acquire not only a 1st line Center but a star player on a $10M contract (with many years left on his existing deal) in comparison to what it should take to acquire clearly a 2nd line center who is going to be a UFA at the end of the season. The package would and should not be close.

As you said :

Tuch - established middle-6 forward with good value
Krebs - a young player not unlike Newhook in terms of value
1st round pick (projected to be late at the time of the trade)
2nd round pick 2023 *

*Vegas received a 3rd round pick in 2023 -> so it's actually more of a moving up to the 2nd round sort of situation there.

So for me, when you're talking about Newhook, Oskar Olausson and a 1st in 2023** that is a massive haul for a player like Horvat when you compare the two deals. Of course Tuch is worth much more than a prospect like Olausson but we're also not talking about the same quality of player between Eichel and Horvat.

The way I view it is this way :

Newhook -> 1st round draft pedigree -> already proven he can play in the NHL - value=1st round pick
Olausson -> 1st round draft pedigree -> has been up and down since his draft year - basically he's TBD [a lot would depend on how they viewed him his draft year - value is probably still late 1st round pick
**1st round pick 2023 - even late, it's still great value as has been reported several times that teams want to hang on to their first in this draft class as it's *supposed* to be very strong.

In the end, there just haven't been a lot of deals where that kind of package - in terms of value - have ever been traded for an impending UFA, 2nd line center.
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Newhook is in a weird spot in his value timeline. He's a legit NHL player, but he's also showing that his ceiling may not be nearly as high when he was drafted. I'd argue that he's lost value since getting established. Instead of being viewed as a high end center prospect surely to be a top 6 that many have labeled him as. He's not a fairly sizable question mark at center and has to show a bit more to keep the 2nd line sort of thoughts. Trading him when he was unproven or teams hadn't seen the faults, likely would have yielded more value. Right now, he's got some questions that will drag down some value.

I think OO is more of a team by team sort of guy... some teams will value highly, some won't. Clearly though, the price for a pure rental is around the Newhook + 1st level. That's roughly how I'd see the Toews/ROR sorts go. Toews might be less directly to Chicago but somebody would have to help retain, so overall cost around there.

For the Horvat/Larkin younger types that teams expect to keep longer term, all three of those pieces and likely more would be needed. They also really aren't meh 2nd liners. More like fringe to decent 1st liners. So the cost will also be higher.
 
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