Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency (Mod Warning in OP)

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Jonathan Toews is one of the greatest captains in the history of the game, i wouldn't mind having him on this team, he could replace Helm as the 35yo veteran on a cheap contract next season.
 
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People are getting way too far ahead of themselves. There are some revenue streams coming in and attendance has been better than expected last year (still not pre-pandemic levels). This is what is giving hope to the cap going up for 24-25. If you make the assumption that Seattle will nearly sell out every game and gate revenues will return to pre-pandemic levels for all the other teams... we're looking at ~375-400m as HRR increase. If you add that to what 21-22 did in other areas... that translates into about 88.5-89m cap. That level is more likely for 25-26 than 24-25 simply due to the escrow amounts and the payoff timing. If we get an increase for 24-25, we are likely somewhere around 87m where we could see a slightly higher 25-26.

The NHL as a gate driven league needs the ticket sales to return to pre-pandemic this season for a 24-25 increase to happen. They are projecting that currently. Economic factors are going to play in here. If the economy keeps growing, this will likely play out. If the economy starts to struggle (and signs are there), this is probably optimistic.


According to this, they've already caught up with the pre-pandemic era (revenue wise).
 

According to this, they've already caught up with the pre-pandemic era (revenue wise).

They have and will far surpass it this year... which is why I say if attendance rebounds we are looking at 375-400m in HRR increase. Gates will determine how quickly the cap increases and by how much.
 
IMO the best case scenario for the cap is 88.5m in 24-25 and 91.5m in 25-26.

Under the 50/50 split CBA (2013) we have only seen above 3.5% increases twice. 14-15 after first season came back strong and 18-19. Rest of the seasons ranged from 0 to 3.5%. With the zero years being MOU and covid related. There will be a one year jump up and then likely back to the ~3% moves.
 
What’s the biggest jump in cap history? 15mil would have to obliterate that I would imagine.

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Someone else will have to do the math but those first couple years showed an insane jump.
 
What’s the biggest jump in cap history? 15mil would have to obliterate that I would imagine.
6.4m between 07-08 and 08-09... the jump between the previous seasons was higher percentage wise though. That was back when HRR was split 57% to the players. In the 50/50 split era we haven't seen over 4.7m or over 7.3%.

We will likely have a jump when the pandemic shortfall is paid off. If that happens for 24-25 the jump will be smaller and more in line with ~5m range. If it doesn't happen until 25-26, the jump will be larger because the shortfall would be paid off very early in 24-25. I'd say odds of 25-26 having a cap greater than 90 in any situation is pretty high.
 
They have and will far surpass it this year... which is why I say if attendance rebounds we are looking at 375-400m in HRR increase. Gates will determine how quickly the cap increases and by how much.
As I was reading this, I was interested in seeing how much revenue is from TV rights. I think for the NFL, TV rights are the vast majority of it's revenue (gate receipts not so much). So you were right about that.

But having said that, it was notworthy that these new TV deals are over 3 times what they had with NBC.

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As I was reading this, I was interested in seeing how much revenue is from TV rights. I think for the NFL, TV rights are the vast majority of it's revenue (gate receipts not so much). So you were right about that.

But having said that, it was notworthy that these new TV deals are over 3 times what they had with NBC.

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No one’s disputing it’s going to jump. But assuming it’s going to have the biggest jump in the leagues history by a substantial amount is grasping at straws here.
 
As I was reading this, I was interested in seeing how much revenue is from TV rights. I think for the NFL, TV rights are the vast majority of it's revenue (gate receipts not so much). So you were right about that.

But having said that, it was notworthy that these new TV deals are over 3 times what they had with NBC.

View attachment 580120
The new TV deal is much, much better and the main reason revenues are back to pre-pandemic levels... it just happened to hit a tough time. When gates come back and the payoff is over, this $400m will be pretty impactful. We still have a ways to go.

Simply put, this season and next season's gate revenues need to get back to pre-pandemic level for the cap to go up in 24-25. If they lag, the increase will happen in 25-26. In either case in 25-26, the cap will be up significantly from today.
 
I making a joke about a specific team that was called east coast, even though they aren't east coast... just in the eastern half NA.
Detroit rock city sure shelled out a lot of money this summer. Stevie wonder ain’t afraid of the Russians either... nuke?!
 
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No one’s disputing it’s going to jump. But assuming it’s going to have the biggest jump in the leagues history by a substantial amount is grasping at straws here.
I don't think it's as unlikely as you say. If the players didn't owe lots of escrow, we would have already seen a significant increase this season due to the new US TV deals. So whenever the escrow gets paid off, all of the would be increases from previous seasons could be part of the jump (unless players are still partially paying off escrow in the season when the first jump happens).

There are three factors in my mind that point to a large jump:
1. ESPN / TNT TV deals
2. Jersey sponsorships adding HRR (Capitals' patch is reportedly $5 million per season)
3. Inflation is making everything more expensive, including hot dogs and beers at venues--we should see some of the general inflation in society reflected in HRR
 
I don't think it's as unlikely as you say. If the players didn't owe lots of escrow, we would have already seen a significant increase this season due to the new US TV deals. So whenever the escrow gets paid off, all of the would be increases from previous seasons could be part of the jump (unless players are still partially paying off escrow in the season when the first jump happens).

There are three factors in my mind that point to a large jump:
1. ESPN / TNT TV deals
2. Jersey sponsorships adding HRR (Capitals' patch is reportedly $5 million per season)
3. Inflation is making everything more expensive, including hot dogs and beers at venues--we should see some of the general inflation in society reflected in HRR
I mean do we really think it’s going to be 3x more than the biggest jump ever though? I’m certainly not disputing the fact that some big jumps will be coming. But expecting 15 with the next closest is 6 seems incredibly generous.
 
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I don't think it's as unlikely as you say. If the players didn't owe lots of escrow, we would have already seen a significant increase this season due to the new US TV deals. So whenever the escrow gets paid off, all of the would be increases from previous seasons could be part of the jump (unless players are still partially paying off escrow in the season when the first jump happens).

There are three factors in my mind that point to a large jump:
1. ESPN / TNT TV deals
2. Jersey sponsorships adding HRR (Capitals' patch is reportedly $5 million per season)
3. Inflation is making everything more expensive, including hot dogs and beers at venues--we should see some of the general inflation in society reflected in HRR
Let's give the main reason why to be cautious. Attendance. Prior to the pandemic, the NHL was already on a downturn with gate numbers. 12-13 was the highest average attendance in the league with a little over 17,800 per game. Pre-pandemic that already dropped to 17,150. Last year we had pandemic complications, but it ended the season at 15,841. As of right now, factors 1 and 2 are just treading water from this drop in attendance (I'll add another here... tip into gambling which has helped the NHL). Now NHL projections has their numbers running closer to 17k this year (just under) and with that they are looking at a ~200m increase in HRR compared to pre-pandemic. If that number falls short again, the league will be in rough shape. If we get back over 17k and it holds for the next two seasons... odds are quite good the cap increases in 24-25.

On your third point, inflation normally causes people to pull back on discretionary things like entertainment. That is compounded if we enter recession. Gate revenues are likely to struggle. The last time a major, lasting recession happened, NHL attendance suffered pretty greatly.
 
Let's give the main reason why to be cautious. Attendance. Prior to the pandemic, the NHL was already on a downturn with gate numbers. 12-13 was the highest average attendance in the league with a little over 17,800 per game. Pre-pandemic that already dropped to 17,150. Last year we had pandemic complications, but it ended the season at 15,841. As of right now, factors 1 and 2 are just treading water from this drop in attendance (I'll add another here... tip into gambling which has helped the NHL). Now NHL projections has their numbers running closer to 17k this year (just under) and with that they are looking at a ~200m increase in HRR compared to pre-pandemic. If that number falls short again, the league will be in rough shape. If we get back over 17k and it holds for the next two seasons... odds are quite good the cap increases in 24-25.

On your third point, inflation normally causes people to pull back on discretionary things like entertainment. That is compounded if we enter recession. Gate revenues are likely to struggle. The last time a major, lasting recession happened, NHL attendance suffered pretty greatly.


That all adds up to Mack getting $9M and being happy with it!
 
I’d really like Toews at double retention but that’s still quite a downgrade from Kadri. I guess we always knew that’s something we’d have to deal with this season.
 
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