Value of: A Legitimate Starting Goalie to Edmonton, Who's Available?

[bernmeister]

Id ship our Bouchard for a actual good goalie vs a bandaid. Saves you money later to not risk losing McDavid and I think a traffic cone could run that PP.

presumed Bouch off the table but if serious, we can talk Shesty-Bouch as a core.

 

[Lunatik]

I think PV would possibly go for that...could you toss in future considerations to round it out?


In the 'other' Gibson thread it's been thoroughly hashed out that that 'might' be a starting point but there has to be a very good NHL ready/almost ready player in there too, especially with even minimal retention. 50% retention will be even more (to be fair, most of the 1st discussion has been based on this years presumably weaker draft).

If Gibson is traded, the Ducks will need to get a backup goalie somewhere, so Skinner coming back isn't necessarily a horrible thing ... but it would be a severe downgrade in the goalie duo for the Ducks so his value, while not completely negative isn't really much of a positive either. A presumably very late 1st round pick doesn't really have the value that people around here seem to insist it does. At that point in the draft (late 1st, early 2nd), history shows that it's about a 50% chance that the pick will even play more than a handful of games in the NHL...it's not worth 'that' much. Skinner & a 1st would cover the retention & a bit of Gibson himself... but there needs to be a whole lot more to get the rest of Gibson. (and that doesn't factor in using a retention slot for multiple years...when they're already using one on Fowler & planning on trading over the next couple of weeks where those 2 slots would be useful for this year. That's not to say it can't be done, but it isn't free)

Then there's the behind the scenes stuff. Dostal will need a new contract at the end of the year. If he's going to be 'the guy' and the Ducks are paying whatever they are for his new back up plus retention on Gibson. With no other options available he's going to (justifiably) want more than that. If Gibson is gone it's suddenly the Boston situation all over again (as a RFA he can't push things too far, but if they screw him over it will be remembered...). Keeping Gibson through this season (at least) is far better for Anaheim (or at least the GM...). If paying Dostal, the backup, & retention is more expensive than keeping Gibson & signing Dostal to a solid but not over a barrel contract, there really is no reason to downgrade their goalie situation.

So there's really no reason for Verbeek to change from his oft stated "Sure, I'll listen to offers, that's my job. But if you want him it's going to be expensive" position.

And of course this all presumes that Gibson would be willing to waive his NTC for Edmonton (he probably would)

(zero idea if that offer would be attractive to St. Louis. If it is, more power to them - the Ducks don't 'have' to get rid of Gibson immediately)

That's all well and good but I was basing this off the Markstrom trade, which sets the market to some degree. The return for Markstrom was a 1st and Kevin Bahl (who was a younger 3rd pairing defenseman), with 1.75-2m retention... without retention, I imagine the return would have been a 1st plus a small amount... which is why I suggested a 1st and Skinner, both Gibson and Binnington would have similar value to Markstrom. You might be able to squeeze an additional mid-round pick or equivalent prospect/young player, but I would be absolutely shocked if they could get more than that.

 

[bernmeister]

....
If you're asking for the Oilers 1st and their best prospect now playing in the NHL the Rangers will have to give up a hell of a lot more than that.

Quick doesn't move the needle for the Oilers.

If you don't value Quick, and you have a right to that opinion, there is no deal. He is obv not a long term or even short term answer, but he is fully a solid rental solution for this yr end + POs

we are just as happy to keep him

If you don't want Smith, who I would value as having 2nd round value in the equation, that's also fine.

 

[bucks_oil]

Shoe on the other foot, what do you think is fair?

Granted you are not limited to Quick, but end of season + POs, this is a good option

there were other threads where Oil were seeming more jam.
Smith is ballpark a 2nd on his own

I asked for higher end of top $ here, but I wouldn't call it "highway robbery"

In any event good luck

Why not Michael Hutchinson and a 7th?

Unless you can explain to us why a 39 year old Quick is worth 10X more today than he was when he was 37?

 

[Lunatik]

I dunno, the Blackhawks only received a 3rd to retain half of Rantanen's $9.25 Million salary. Granted, he is a pending UFA but that's a big chunk of change for just a third.

The Hawks also dumped Hall's contract in the trade, they actually saved money. There is a massive difference between tying up a retention spot for a few months and 2 years, plus a few months especially when you only get 3 slots.

 

[Fatass]

Do the oilers need a better goalie than Skinner or is it they need to play (as a club) better defensively? The chances they give up are often high danger from turnovers. Maybe it’s not the goalie?

 

[Misery74]

Charlie Lindgren makes just over a million. UFA at seasons end.

 

[Lunatik]

Do the oilers need a better goalie than Skinner or is it they need to play (as a club) better defensively? The chances they give up are often high danger from turnovers. Maybe it’s not the goalie?

You are right, butt hat will never change... Oilers don't seem to believe in anything but firewagon hockey, thinking they can recreate the mid/late 80s and early 90s

 

[bernmeister]

Why not Michael Hutchinson and a 7th?

Unless you can explain to us why a 39 year old Quick is worth 10X more today than he was when he was 37?

Rs have legendary G guru Benoit Allaire
At one pt few yrs back his game may have been off, but under Benny it is kicking on all cylinders
High end rentals command top $$, supply and demand

do you see any vez winners/high quality guys being made available?
no

I rest my case

 

[Quackenator]

I'm sure they could trade like, a 3rd or 2nd for Dostal or for Hofer who are probably fine starters, especially if they split with Skinner. I'm also sure everyone would struggle in Edmonton. They have Bouchard on one pair and Klingberg on another and they traded their only defensive forward for yet another PP specialist. What's the goalie supposed to do if not to suffer

Your comment is so dumb that it made me login to comment how dumb it was. Thanks

 

[Fatass]

You are right, butt hat will never change... Oilers don't seem to believe in anything but firewagon hockey, thinking they can recreate the mid/late 80s and early 90s

True, but fun as hell to watch.

 

[Rebels57]

Binnington seems like a strong possibility.

 

[ManofSteel55]

The Oilers Question™ of the past like, 15 seasons.
I really wonder how someone like Markstrom would have fared when he was available from Vancouver and Calgary.

What are the Oilers' available assets of value? I assume they won't be detracting roster players.

I'm sure they would be fine with moving some of the players that won't have much interest here due to the players not performing up to expectations - J. Skinner, Arvidson, S. Skinner, and of course futures - probably any prospect other than Savoie would be available, and any picks we have left as well, for the right situation. I can't see Bowman dropping a 1st on a UFA unless he has a pretty good indication that an extension would be possible too.

Just to stir the pot, what is being offered for Demko?

Skip the whole "inter-division tax" BS, what does Edmonton offer for a Vezina runner up?

The Oilers need someone who can shoulder the 1A load. Demko was a great goalie before all the injuries, but we can't bring in a guy who can't stay healthy. Not for goalie.

Do the oilers need a better goalie than Skinner or is it they need to play (as a club) better defensively? The chances they give up are often high danger from turnovers. Maybe it’s not the goalie?

They need a goalie who can make a big save. Skinner's inconsistency is a real issue. He's a good goalie, but he has to work on some things, and then he has a game every now and then where he just is off. He's the perfect example of what the difference is between a starter in the NHL, and a journeyman goalie - you need consistency to be a starting goalie in the NHL.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I mean Broberg and Holloway where for future Bennington considerations?


Right?

A week ago you would have been blasted for even suggesting Binngton, but he might be a good target. Depends on if St. Louis management sees this year as a quick re-tool, and if he is part of the plan to be a playoff team again next year.

Georgiev is your guy

I think we've seen how poorly the "Georgiev as #1" thing goes. We're looking for an upgrade. Skinner has his warts for sure, but I don't think Georgiev is an improvement.

 

[ManofSteel55]

You're not paying a primo haul for Shesterkin, so he's out for you
IF Igor+ to LAK for a massive package, THEN their current starter maybe available.

We love Quick but if nec can plug in Garand immediately.
Quick is expiring nmc would have to take one for the team and waive, strictly be a 1 yr rental

Quick + Smith + Jones + 4th
for
Savoie + 1st

How about if we cut out all the extra stuff, and give the Rangers Quick for a 5th? It's likely a bit of an overpayment for an aging goalie, but I'd be happy bringing Quick in as a backup for the rest of the year. He doesn't help the starting goalie problem at this stage in his career.

 

[bucks_oil]

Rs have legendary G guru Benoit Allaire
At one pt few yrs back his game may have been off, but under Benny it is kicking on all cylinders
High end rentals command top $$, supply and demand

do you see any vez winners/high quality guys being made available?
no

I rest my case

Your response is devoid of reality. Let's go back there shall we?

1) Reality Check 1: the "market" for Quick has a DIRECT COMPARABLE, when he was traded two years ago as a (i) highly regarded, (ii) aging, (iii) now back up, with a (iv) sub 900 SPCT and a (v) long history of strong playoff performance. Considering all of (i) to (v) he was worth a journeyman back up and a 7th. What's changed? None of (i) to (v) except that he's now two years older.

2) Reality Check 2: Allaire is WIDELY credited for his work popularizing the "blocking style" of butterfly goaltending, that benefits big, tactical goalies..., Quick is small, agile and plays a hybrid, pro-fly style... Allaire isn't going to be teaching this old dog any new tricks.

3) Reality Check 3: The last time Quick turned in a "high quality, Vezina" type season he was 32 years old. He's now 39. Trust this 49 year old goalie when I say... these things are not the same.

4) Reality Check 4: You got the supply/demand equation backwards. There are plenty of goalies better than Quick that are available (Binnington, Gibson, Vejmelka, etc) and the rumors are that there are really only two buyers (Edmonton & Carolina) among contenders.

I'm actually a huge Quick fan, but if he moves, he's not getting more than a mid-round pick. There is no set of facts that suggests he's worth more.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I'm sure they could trade like, a 3rd or 2nd for Dostal or for Hofer who are probably fine starters, especially if they split with Skinner. I'm also sure everyone would struggle in Edmonton. They have Bouchard on one pair and Klingberg on another and they traded their only defensive forward for yet another PP specialist. What's the goalie supposed to do if not to suffer

Why would Anaheim trade Dostal at all? He's the exact age they need to grow with the rest of the Ducks' core. They've shown tremendous improvement this year, trading their goalie of the future for more picks doesn't seem to be a move that would benefit them. That's why Gibson makes more sense, depending on the asking price. He's going to be leaving his prime before the Ducks are truly a contender, if the current build of the team has the horses to get that far. Dostal is the guy for them moving forward. Gibson should be used for more near future assets, if the Ducks are interested in moving him at all.

 

[Rec T]

That's all well and good but I was basing this off the Markstrom trade, which sets the market to some degree. The return for Markstrom was a 1st and Kevin Bahl (who was a younger 3rd pairing defenseman), with 1.75-2m retention... without retention, I imagine the return would have been a 1st plus a small amount... which is why I suggested a 1st and Skinner, both Gibson and Binnington would have similar value to Markstrom. You might be able to squeeze an additional mid-round pick or equivalent prospect/young player, but I would be absolutely shocked if they could get more than that.

That's fine. However then we're right back to 'why in the world would Anaheim trade him if it's not going to make the team better or at the very, very least break even?'. Taking Skinner back will make the goalie situation in Anaheim worse even if there's no retention for Gibson. A late first doesn't balance that out & pay for Gibson too.

That very well might be market value (I really don't understand why goalies return so little...it seems like it should be the other way given their importance...but that's probably also why I'm not wearing a suit getting paid to be a GM), but that doesn't mean that PV is forced to accept it. They aren't trying to move him but they will listen to offers. They don't 'need' to move him (like they did with Fowler), so the offers will have to be really good to even move the needle. Otherwise Edmonton will just need to find someone else, something that probably is perfectly fine for PV.

 

[Lunatik]

I really don't understand why goalies return so little

That's easy. The difference between goaltenders is razor thin and their success is highly dependent on the team in front of them and lucky/bad bounces.

If you normalize shots to the league average between goaltenders, the difference of a .010 SV% is less than 1 goal every 3 games... and when you think about it, what team doesn't also allow a goal off a bad bounce every week? So that difference could be as simple as it hitting a defenders skate and trickling in, or a funny bounce off the glass.

 

[InTheBox]

Would Buffalo trade UPL with Levi in the minors ready to come up?

 

[LTIR]

Most Preds fans would probably hand you Saros for "free"... if you'd take his forthcoming contract extension.

And he'd probably be really good for the next 3-5 years and be a great pickup for the Oilers. A la Ekholm.

Just... of course, Barry Trotz is not going to be on the same page, alas, so it's not very realistic. Unless he has some kind of come-to-Jesus epiphany.

Trotz has ruined the future of Preds.
Added what they didn't really need and gave away the future core.

 

[LTIR]

Ovechkin had what 7 or 8 point blank shots on Pickard last game. I guess Oilers don't need to fix their defense but need a goalie who can stop Ovi 7 of 8 times.

Even Ekholm is looking bad these days.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Ovechkin had what 7 or 8 point blank shots on Pickard last game. I guess Oilers don't need to fix their defense but need a goalie who can stop Ovi 7 of 8 times.

Even Ekholm is looking bad these days.

He looks like he is playing hurt. He's a shell of what he was a year ago, and not close to what he was even at the start of the year.

The blueline does need some help though. If the Oilers are going to push for a cup, they need to upgrade on both the blueline with another top 4 D, and in net.

 

[SirPaste]

I'm sure they could trade like, a 3rd or 2nd for Dostal or for Hofer who are probably fine starters, especially if they split with Skinner. I'm also sure everyone would struggle in Edmonton. They have Bouchard on one pair and Klingberg on another and they traded their only defensive forward for yet another PP specialist. What's the goalie supposed to do if not to suffer

What in the world? Neither of those guys would even be available especially for such a brutal return.

 

[TFHockey]

Ovechkin had what 7 or 8 point blank shots on Pickard last game. I guess Oilers don't need to fix their defense but need a goalie who can stop Ovi 7 of 8 times.

Even Ekholm is looking bad these days.

The Oilers have to clean up a lot of problems in their game. Goaltending is one thing, but holy man playing a smart defensive game has to be top of the list.

Woof.